2015 Kentucky gubernatorial election

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2015 Kentucky gubernatorial election

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Turnout30% Increase
  Matt Bevin by Gage Skidmore (cropped).jpg JackConway (cropped).jpg
Nominee Matt Bevin Jack Conway
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Jenean Hampton Sannie Overly
Popular vote 511,374 426,620
Percentage 52.5% 43.8%

2015 Kentucky gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
County results
Bevin:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Conway:      40–50%      50–60%

Governor before election

Steve Beshear
Democratic

Elected Governor

Matt Bevin
Republican

The 2015 Kentucky gubernatorial election took place on November 3, 2015.[1] Incumbent Democratic Governor Steve Beshear was ineligible to run for a third term due to term limits.[2] Primary elections were held on May 19, 2015.[1] Despite trailing in most pre-election polls, Republican nominee Matt Bevin defeated Democratic nominee Jack Conway by a margin of 52.5% to 43.8% in the general election. Statewide turnout in this election was 30%. With a margin of 8.7%, this election was the closest race of the 2015 gubernatorial election cycle.

Background[]

Kentucky governor Steve Beshear was first elected in 2007. An attorney, he served as a state representative, attorney general, lieutenant governor, ran unsuccessfully for the United States Senate, and he had reputation for being a moderate liberal.[3]

Democratic primary[]

Candidates[]

Declared[]

  • Running mate: Sannie Overly, state representative[4]
  • Running mate: Johnathan Masters[6]
  • Former running mate: Cherokee Schill[5]

Declined[]

  • Jerry Abramson, White House Director of Intergovernmental Affairs, former lieutenant governor of Kentucky and former mayor of Louisville[7]
  • Rocky Adkins, Majority Leader of the Kentucky House of Representatives[8][9]
  • Ben Chandler, former U.S. Representative, former attorney general of Kentucky and nominee for governor in 2003[10][11][12][13]
  • Luther Deaton, banker[14][15]
  • Adam Edelen, State Auditor of Kentucky (ran for re-election)[16][17][18]
  • Greg Fischer, Mayor of Louisville[19]
  • Alison Lundergan Grimes, Secretary of State of Kentucky and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2014 (ran for re-election)[20]
  • Crit Luallen, Lieutenant Governor of Kentucky and former state auditor of Kentucky[21][22]
  • Daniel Mongiardo, former Lieutenant Governor of Kentucky and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2004[16]
  • Greg Stumbo, Speaker of the Kentucky House of Representatives, former attorney general of Kentucky and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2007[9][23][24][25][26]
  • John Yarmuth, U.S. Representative[27]

Endorsements[]

Jack Conway/Sannie Overly
Statewide elected officials
  • Wendell H. Ford, former U.S. Senator and former Governor[28]
  • Crit Luallen, Lieutenant Governor of Kentucky and former State Auditor of Kentucky[28]
  • Alison Lundergan Grimes, Kentucky Secretary of State[28]
  • John Yarmuth, U.S. Representative[28]
Individuals
  • Jim King, Louisville Metro Council President[29]
  • David Yates, Louisville Metro Councilman[30]
  • Shane Young, Hardin County Commonwealth's Attorney[31]
  • Dan Boaz, McCracken County Commonwealth's Attorney[32]
  • Les Burgett, Perry County Sheriff[33]
  • Bobby Carpenter, Greenup County Judge/Executive[34]
  • John Estill, Mason County Attorney[35]
  • John Gardner, Barren and Metcalfe Counties Commonwealth's Attorney[36]
  • Steve Gold, Henderson County Attorney[37]
  • David O'Neill, Fayette County Property Valuation Administrator[38]
  • G.L. Ovey, Lyon County Commonwealth's Attorney[39]
  • Mike Pryor, Nicholas County Judge/Executive[40]
  • Tommy Turner, LaRue County Judge/Executive[41]
  • Jim Ward, Letcher County Judge/Executive[42]
  • G. Davis Wilson, Bourbon County Attorney[43]
  • Elisabeth Jensen, education advocate and nominee for Kentucky's 6th congressional district in 2014[44]
Members of the Kentucky legislature
Organizations
  • International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Local 369[59]
  • Jefferson County Teachers Association[60]
  • Teamsters Joint Council 94[61]

Polling[]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jack
Conway
Geoff
Young
Undecided
Survey USA May 5–10, 2015 707 ± 3.5% 68% 13% 19%
Survey USA March 3–8, 2015 640 ± 3.9% 61% 12% 27%
Harper Polling January 28–31, 2015 255 ± 6.14% 59% 13% 28%

Results[]

Democratic primary results[62]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jack Conway 140,627 78.8%
Democratic Geoff Young 37,887 21.2%
Total votes 178,514 100.0%

Republican primary[]

Candidates[]

Declared[]

  • Matt Bevin, businessman and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2014[63][64]
  • Running mate: Jenean Hampton, former Chairwoman of the Bowling Green/Southern Kentucky Tea Party and nominee for the 20th Kentucky House district in 2014[65][66]
  • James Comer, Agriculture Commissioner of Kentucky, 2012–2016; and former state representative, 2001-2012[67]
  • Running mate: K.C. Crosbie, former Lexington-Fayette Urban County Councilwoman, 2006–2014; former finance chairwoman and national chairwoman for the Republican Party of Kentucky, and nominee for Kentucky State Treasurer in 2011[70]
  • Running mate: Rodney Coffey, former Menifee County Sheriff, 1999–2014; Kentucky Sheriffs Association President, 20142015 [73]

Withdrew[]

  • Robert Lee Rosier, U.S. Army veteran[74]
  • Running mate: John Yuen, candidate for the State Senate in 2012[74]

Declined[]

  • Cathy Bailey, businesswoman and former United States Ambassador to Latvia[75]
  • Andy Barr, U.S. Representative[76][77]
  • Jess Correll, banker[78]
  • Richie Farmer, former Agriculture Commissioner of Kentucky[79][80][81]
  • Ernie Fletcher, former governor and former U.S. Representative[82]
  • Trey Grayson, former Secretary of State of Kentucky and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010[83]
  • Brett Guthrie, U.S. Representative[78][84][85]
  • Thomas Massie, U.S. Representative[86]
  • Mitch McConnell, U.S. Senator and Senate Majority Leader[87]
  • Phil Moffett, businessman, Tea Party activist and candidate for governor in 2011[88][89]
  • Rand Paul, U.S. Senator and 2016 presidential candidate[90]
  • David L. Williams, judge on the Kentucky Circuit Courts, former president of the Kentucky Senate and nominee for governor in 2011[91]

Endorsements[]

James Comer/Chris McDaniel
Individuals
  • Jim Bunning, former U.S. Senator[92]
  • Julie Denton, state senator[93]
  • Anne Northup, former U.S. Representative and candidate for Governor in 2007[93]
  • Ron Lewis, former U.S. Representative[94]
  • Thomas Massie, U.S. Representative for Kentucky's 4th congressional district[95]
  • Ed Whitfield, U.S. Representative[96]
Organizations
  • Associated General Contractors[97]
Hal Heiner/K.C. Crosbie
Individuals
Organizations
  • Kentucky Pastors Action Coalition [98]
Matt Bevin/Jenean Hampton
Individuals
  • Hugh Hewitt, author and talk radio personality [99]
  • Sally Oh, co-founder of the Lexington Tea Party [100]
Organizations
  • Cincinnati Enquirer [101]

Polling[]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Cathy
Bailey
Matt
Bevin
James
Comer
Hal
Heiner
Will T.
Scott
Undecided
Survey USA May 5–10, 2015 517 ± 4.4% 27% 26% 25% 8% 14%
Public Policy Polling May 6–7, 2015 501 ± 4.4% 25% 28% 27% 20%
Triumph Campaigns March 26, 2015 601 ± 4% 12% 19% 33% 3% 29%
Survey USA March 3–8, 2015 520 ± 4.4% 20% 20% 28% 8% 25%
Harper Polling January 28–31, 2015 261 ± 6.07% 18% 25% 19% 9% 30%
Remington Research January 27–28, 2015 1,000 ± ? 19% 22% 18% 5% 26%
Public Policy Polling August 7–10, 2014 383 ± ? 11% 25% 20% 18% 26%
22% 28% 50%
Public Opinion Strategies February 26–27, 2014 400 ± 4.9% 42% 14% 13%

Results[]

Primary results by county:
Bevin
  •   Bevin—51-60%
  •   Bevin—41-50%
  •   Bevin—31-40%
Comer
  •   Comer—91-100%
  •   Comer—81-90%
  •   Comer—71-80%
  •   Comer—61-70%
  •   Comer—51-60%
  •   Comer—41-50%
  •   Comer—31-40%
  •   Comer—21-30%
Heiner
  •   Heiner—51-60%
  •   Heiner—41-50%
  •   Heiner—31-40%
  •   Heiner—21-30%
Scott
  •   Scott—61-70%
  •   Scott—31-40%
  Tie between Bevin and Comer—29%

On May 19, 2015, Matt Bevin won the Republican primary, defeating second-place finisher James Comer by 83 votes.[62]

Republican primary results[62]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Matt Bevin 70,480 32.91%
Republican James Comer 70,397 32.89%
Republican Hal Heiner 57,951 27.10%
Republican Will T. Scott 15,365 7.20%
Total votes 214,187 100.00%

Independents[]

Candidates[]

Declared[]

  • Drew Curtis, entrepreneur and founder and CEO of Fark.com[102]
  • Running mate: Heather Curtis, COO of Fark.com and wife of Drew Curtis[102]
  • Gatewood Galbraith (formerly Terrill Wayne Newman), social worker (distinguish from politician Gatewood Galbraith)[103][104]
  • Running mate: Elisabeth Anderson, retired legal secretary

General election[]

Predictions[]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[105] Tossup October 26, 2015
Rothenberg Political Report[106] Tilt D October 27, 2015
Sabato's Crystal Ball[107] Lean D October 29, 2015

Polling[]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jack
Conway (D)
Matt
Bevin (R)
Drew
Curtis (I)
Undecided
Vox Populi October 26–27, 2015 618 ± 3.9% 44% 44% 6% 6%
43% 46% 6% 7%
Survey USA October 23–26, 2015 798 ± 3.5% 45% 40% 6% 10%
WKU Social Science Research Center October 19–25, 2015 770 ± 3.5% 45% 40% 7% 8%
Mason-Dixon October 6–8, 2015 625 ± 4% 43% 41% 6% 10%
Survey USA September 22–27, 2015 701 ± 3.8% 42% 37% 7% 15%
Survey USA July 22–28, 2015 685 ± 3.8% 43% 38% 8% 11%
45% 42% 13%
Public Policy Polling June 18–21, 2015 1,108 ± 2.9% 35% 38% 6% 21%
38% 40% 22%
Survey USA May 5–10, 2015 1,677 ± 2.4% 48% 37% 16%
Survey USA March 3–8, 2015 1,917 ± 2.3% 42% 36% 22%
Harper Polling January 28–29, 2015 640 ± 3.87% 45% 41% 14%
Gravis Marketing January 5–6, 2015 608 ± 4% 44% 36% 20%
Public Policy Polling August 7–10, 2014 991 ± 3.1% 39% 36% 25%
Hypothetical polling
Conway vs. Bailey
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jack
Conway (D)
Cathy
Bailey (R)
Other Undecided
Gravis Marketing January 5–6, 2015 608 ± 4% 43% 30% 27%
Public Policy Polling August 7–10, 2014 991 ± 3.1% 42% 30% 28%
Conway vs. Comer
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jack
Conway (D)
James
Comer (R)
Other Undecided
Survey USA May 5–10, 2015 1,677 ± 2.4% 45% 39% 16%
Survey USA March 3–8, 2015 1,917 ± 2.3% 40% 38% 22%
Harper Polling January 28–29, 2015 640 ± 3.87% 41% 45% 14%
Gravis Marketing January 5–6, 2015 608 ± 4% 40% 37% 23%
Garin-Hart-Yang* December 19–21, 2014 608 ± 4% 48% 36% 16%
Public Policy Polling August 7–10, 2014 991 ± 3.1% 38% 35% 27%
Conway vs. Heiner
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jack
Conway (D)
Hal
Heiner (R)
Other Undecided
Survey USA May 5–10, 2015 1,677 ± 2.4% 48% 36% 16%
Survey USA March 3–8, 2015 1,917 ± 2.3% 41% 38% 21%
Harper Polling January 28–29, 2015 640 ± 3.87% 42% 44% 14%
Gravis Marketing January 5–6, 2015 608 ± 4% 43% 34% 22%
Garin-Hart-Yang* December 19–21, 2014 608 ± 4% 51% 30% 19%
Public Policy Polling August 7–10, 2014 991 ± 3.1% 39% 32% 28%
Gravis Marketing July 17–20, 2014 1,054 ± 3% 45% 36% 19%
Conway vs. Scott
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jack
Conway (D)
Will T.
Scott (R)
Other Undecided
Survey USA May 5–10, 2015 1,677 ± 2.4% 48% 32% 20%
Survey USA March 3–8, 2015 1,917 ± 2.3% 43% 33% 24%
Harper Polling January 28–29, 2015 640 ± 3.87% 44% 40% 16%
  • * Poll for the Kentucky Democratic Party

Results[]

Kentucky gubernatorial election, 2015[108][109][110]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Matt Bevin 511,374 52.52% +17.23%
Democratic Jack Conway 426,620 43.82% -11.90%
Independent Drew Curtis 35,597 3.66% N/A
Total votes 973,692 100.00% N/A
Republican gain from Democratic

References[]

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