2020 United States presidential election in New Jersey

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Main article: 2020 United States presidential election

2020 United States presidential election in New Jersey
← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
TurnoutIncrease 72%
  Joe Biden presidential portrait (cropped).jpg Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee Joe Biden Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Delaware Florida
Running mate Kamala Harris Mike Pence
Electoral vote 14 0
Popular vote 2,608,335 1,883,274
Percentage 57.33% 41.40%
New Jersey Presidential Election Results 2020.svg
County results
President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elections in New Jersey
Federal government
State government
Newark
Jersey City
Hoboken
Atlantic City
  • v
  • t

The 2020 United States presidential election in New Jersey was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] New Jersey voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. New Jersey has 14 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Biden carried the state by 15.93% (11.48% more Democratic than the nation as a whole). Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden's votes in New Jersey came from a coalition of key Democratic constituencies, including 86% of Blacks, 76% of Asians, 72% of Hispanic and Latino Americans, and 50% of Whites.[3] Biden's strength with Asian Americans was evident in New Jersey, where Asians constituted 10.0% of the population in 2019.[4][5]

Biden flipped Gloucester County, which was reliably Democratic until Trump flipped it in 2016. He also became the first Democrat to win Morris County since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964.[6] This also became the first presidential election since 2000 in which Salem County did not vote for the national winner.[12] Biden subsequently became the first presidential nominee of either party since 2000, and the first Democrat since 1992, to win the White House without carrying Salem County.[15] Trump carried 255 of New Jersey's 565 municipalities, fewer than the 307 he carried in 2016, with Biden carrying the other 310.[16] Biden's 2.6 million votes is the most received by any candidate of either party in a presidential election in the state's history.

Primary elections[]

The primary elections were originally scheduled for June 2, 2020. In April, they were moved to July 7 due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic.[17] On May 15, 2020, Governor Phil Murphy signed an executive order declaring that the primary election to become a primarily vote-by-mail election. Democratic and Republican voters will automatically receive a vote-by-mail ballot while unaffiliated and inactive voters will get a vote-by-mail application. Unaffiliated voters must declare their party in the application and send in to their respective county board of elections in order to vote and receive their primary election ballot. A limited number of polling stations in each county will be available on primary day for those who prefer to vote in person (including with provisional ballots if they're unable to obtain one) and for voters with disabilities.[18]

Republican primary[]

Incumbent President Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary.[19] The state has 49 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[20]

2020 New Jersey Republican primary
Candidate Votes % Delegates
Donald Trump 457,212 100 49
Total 457,212 100.00 49

Democratic primary[]

This section is an excerpt from 2020 New Jersey Democratic presidential primary.[]
2020 New Jersey Democratic presidential primary[21]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[22]
Joe Biden 814,188 84.92 121
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn) 140,412 14.65 5
Uncommitted 4,162 0.43
Total 958,762 100% 126

Green primary[]

This section is transcluded from Results of the 2020 Green Party presidential primaries. ( | )
New Jersey Green Party presidential primary, May 2, 2020[23][better source needed]
Candidate Votes Percentage[a] National delegates
Howie Hawkins 44 78.6% 5
Dario Hunter 4 7.1% 0
Jesse Ventura 3 5.4% 0
Sedinam Moyowasifza-Curry 2 3.6% 0
Bernie Sanders 2 3.6% 0
Kent Mesplay 1 1.8% 0
Susan Buchser-Lochocki 0 0% 0
Dennis Lambert 0 0% 0
Chad Wilson 0 0% 0
David Rolde 0 0% 0
Total 56 100.00% 5

General election[]

Predictions[]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[24] Solid D October 28, 2020
Inside Elections[25] Safe D October 16, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[26] Safe D October 8, 2020
Politico[27] Safe D September 8, 2020
RCP[28] Likely D August 3, 2020
Niskanen[29] Safe D July 26, 2020
CNN[30] Safe D August 3, 2020
The Economist[31] Safe D September 2, 2020
CBS News[32] Likely D September 27, 2020
270towin[33] Safe D August 2, 2020
ABC News[34] Safe D July 31, 2020
NPR[35] Likely D October 30, 2020
NBC News[36] Likely D August 6, 2020
538[37] Solid D September 27, 2020
Fox News[38] Likely D November 2, 2020

Polling[]

Graphical summary[]

Aggregate polls[]

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
[b] 		Margin
270 to Win October 9 – November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 56.5% 37.3% 6.2% Biden +19.2
Real Clear Politics September 4 – October 13, 2020 November 3, 2020 54.7% 37.3% 8.0% Biden +17.4
FiveThirtyEight until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 58.4% 37.9% 3.7% Biden +20.4
Average 56.5% 37.5% 7.8% Biden +19.0
Polls
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian 		Howie
Hawkins
Green 		Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 3,870 (LV) ± 2% 38%[d] 59% - - – –
Research Co. Oct 31 – Nov 1, 2020 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 40% 59% - - 1%[e] 5%
Swayable Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 324 (LV) ± 7.2% 40% 59% 1% 0% – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 6,472 (LV) – 37% 60% - - – –
Swayable Oct 23–26, 2020 386 (LV) ± 6.5% 38% 62% 0% 0% – –
Rutgers-Eagleton Oct 19–24, 2020 834 (LV) ± 4% 37% 59% - - 1%[f] 1%
Stockton College Oct 7–13, 2020 721 (LV) ± 3.7% 36% 56% - - – –
DKC Analytics/Brach Eichler Oct 5–13, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 34% 56% - - 10%[g] –
Fairleigh Dickinson University Sep 30 – Oct 5, 2020 582 (LV) ± 4.6% 38% 53% - - 5%[h] 4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 2,952 (LV) – 37% 60% - - – 3%
DKC Analytics/Brach Eichler Sep 8–16, 2020 501 (LV) ± 4.4% 38% 52% - - 10%[g] –
Emerson College Sep 4–7, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 40%[i] 58% - - 2%[j] –
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 2,309 (LV) – 40% 57% - - – 3%
DKC Analytics/Brach Eichler Aug 5–13, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.383% 33% 52% - - 15%[k] –
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 2,426 (LV) – 37% 61% - - – 2%
Pollfish/DKC Analytics/Brach Eichler Jul 7–12, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.383% 33% 51% - - 7%[l] 8%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 1,110 (LV) – 37% 61% - - – 3%
Quinnipiac Apr 30 – May 4, 2020 941 (RV) ± 3.2% 35% 54% - - 3%[m] 8%
Rutgers-Eagleton Apr 22 – May 2, 2020 689 (RV) ± 4.2% 33% 56% - - 5%[n] 7%
Monmouth University Apr 16–19, 2020 635 (RV) ± 3.9% 38% 54% - - 2% 6%
Fairleigh Dickinson University Feb 12–16, 2020 715 (RV) – 35% 53% - - – –
Former candidates
Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Bernie
Sanders (D) 		Other Undecided
Fairleigh Dickinson University Feb 12–16, 2020 715 (RV) – 36% 53% – –
Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Elizabeth
Warren (D) 		Other Undecided
Fairleigh Dickinson University Feb 12–16, 2020 715 (RV) – 36% 50% – –
Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Michael
Bloomberg (D) 		Other Undecided
Fairleigh Dickinson University Feb 12–16, 2020 715 (RV) – 32% 56% – –
Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Pete
Buttigieg (D) 		Other Undecided
Fairleigh Dickinson University Feb 12–16, 2020 715 (RV) – 36% 48% – –
Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Amy
Klobuchar (D) 		Other Undecided
Fairleigh Dickinson University Feb 12–16, 2020 715 (RV) – 36% 47% – –

Results[]

Results of the general election by municipality, darker colors indicate higher win percentage:
-Blue municipalities won by Biden
-Red municipalities won by Trump
Swing from 2016 to 2020 by each municipality, darker colors indicate a higher swing from 2016:
-Blue municipalities swung towards Biden
-Red municipalities swung towards Trump

As the polls predicted, Joe Biden won New Jersey by a wide margin. Biden ran up huge margins in the state's major cities such as Newark, Jersey City, Paterson, Trenton, Atlantic City, Camden, and several others. In addition to carrying all the counties that Clinton won in 2016, Biden flipped Gloucester County, which was a reliably blue county before Trump won it in 2016. Biden also won Morris County, which had never voted Democratic in any presidential race since 1964; Senator Cory Booker concurrently won Morris County in his reelection victory as well. In neighboring Hunterdon County, Biden came within 4.4 points of victory despite the county being a reliably Republican stronghold as well. Biden also performed strongly in several of the state's other historically Republican counties; he noticeably improved upon the Democrat's margins in Warren, Cape May, and Ocean Counties,[39][circular reference][40][circular reference][41][circular reference] and even recorded the highest share of the vote in Sussex and Hunterdon Counties for a Democrat since 1964.[42][circular reference][43][circular reference]

President Trump, meanwhile, performed strongly in Ocean County, which is reliably red. He also did well in Sussex and Warren counties, two northern rural counties that have not voted Democratic since 1964. Salem County, which Trump flipped in 2016, remained in his column and he also held on to Monmouth County, which hasn't voted Democratic since 2000 but where the margins have always been somewhat close. Trump improved on his 2016 margins in Cumberland, Atlantic, and Passaic Counties, which have not voted for a Republican since 1988, 1988, and 1992, respectively.[44][circular reference][45][circular reference][46][circular reference] He also improved in the urban counties of Essex and Hudson, due to noticeable improvement in several of those counties' most populated cities, such as Jersey City and Newark, even as Biden widened his vote margin in many of these.[47]

Ultimately, Trump carried 255 of New Jersey's 565 municipalities, less than the 307 he carried in 2016, with Biden carrying the other 310. Compared to their 2016 margins, 471 of New Jersey's 565 municipalities swung towards Biden in this election. However, Trump was able to improve significantly upon his 2016 margins in many of New Jersey's most heavily populated cities, which kept the statewide margin within 2% of the 2016 results. For example, in New Jersey's most populated city, Newark, Trump nearly doubled his 2016 share of the vote, going from 6.63% to 12.25% of the vote.[47] This was the best Republican performance in Newark since George W. Bush received 12.8% of the vote in 2004.[48][circular reference] Other populated cities, such as Paterson and Camden, posted similarly notable shifts towards the GOP, with much of the rest of the state shifting towards the Democrats instead.

2020 United States presidential election in New Jersey[49]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Joseph R. Biden Jr.
Kamala D. Harris 		2,608,335 57.33% +1.88%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence 		1,883,274 41.40% +0.05%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen 		31,677 0.70% -1.17%
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker 		14,202 0.31% -0.67%
Unity Bill Hammons
Eric Bodenstab 		3,255 0.07% ±0.00%
Constitution Don Blankenship
William Mohr 		2,954 0.06% -0.10%
Socialism and Liberation Gloria La Riva
Sunil Freeman 		2,928 0.06% +0.02%
Alliance Rocky De La Fuente
Darcy Richardson 		2,728 0.06% +0.01%
Total votes 4,549,353 100.00%

Results by county[]

Show/hide: [vote percentages]

Candidate Joe Biden Donald Trump Jo Jorgensen Howie Hawkins Bill Hammons Don Blankenship Gloria La Riva Rocky De La Fuente Write-Ins Margin Total votes Turnout
[50]
Party Democratic Republican Libertarian Green Unity Constitution PSL Alliance
County # # # # # # # # # # # %
Atlantic[53] 73,808 64,438 958 367 108 103 177 72 410 9,370 140,441 70%
Bergen[56] 285,967 204,417 2,852 1,375 284 327 384 243 1,989 81,550 497,838 75%
Burlington[57] 154,595 103,345 2,206 605 130 360 174 82 1,153 51,250 262,650 78%
Camden[58] 175,065 86,207 1,884 781 151 216 199 113 983 88,858 265,599 69%
Cape May[59] 23,941 33,158 311 140 59 31 19 55 219 −9,217 57,933 78%
Cumberland[60] 32,742 28,952 397 139 71 32 26 49 167 3,790 62,575 71%
Essex[61] 266,820 75,475 1,296 978 104 116 278 244 191,345 345,311 62%
Gloucester[62] 86,702 83,340 1,616 446 149 122 82 197 799 3,362 173,453 79%
Hudson[63] 181,452 65,698 1,252 782 251 102 205 108 608 115,754 250,458 62%
Hunterdon[64] 39,457 43,153 985 410 77 77 44 39 431 −3,696 84,673 86%
Mercer[65] 122,532 51,641 1,427 564 91 88 125 136 619 70,891 177,223 69%
Middlesex[66] 226,250 143,467 2,554 1,221 198 247 249 176 1,330 82,783 375,692 69%
Monmouth[67] 181,291 191,808 2,708 1,414 340 227 181 182 239 −10,517 378,390 82%
Morris[68] 153,881 141,134 2,439 1,005 224 208 253 182 1,595 12,747 300,917 78%
Ocean[69] 119,456 217,740 2,469 1,050 494 140 49 118 1,230 −98,274 342,746 78%
Passaic[70] 129,097 92,009 1,103 805 108 145 161 279 623 37,088 224,330 69%
Salem[71] 14,479 18,827 406 93 40 40 17 20 120 −4,348 34,042 69%
Somerset[72] 111,173 71,996 1,641 620 133 115 116 65 1,032 39,177 186,891 74%
Sussex[73] 34,481 51,698 1,094 352 91 103 91 50 392 −17,217 88,352 78%
Union[74] 170,245 80,002 1,427 792 61 116 57 291 1,050 90,243 254,041 69%
Warren[75] 24,901 34,769 655 263 91 40 41 27 270 −9,868 61,057 72%
Totals 2,608,335 1,883,274 31,677 14,202 3,255 2,954 2,928 2,728 15,259 725,061 4,564,612 72%

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic[]

  • Gloucester (largest municipality: Washington Township)
  • Morris (largest municipality: Parsippany)

By congressional district[]

Biden won 9 out of the 12 congressional districts in New Jersey.[76]

District Biden Trump Representative
1st 62.1% 36.6% Donald Norcross
2nd 47.9% 50.8% Jeff Van Drew
3rd 49.2% 49.4% Andy Kim
4th 44.1% 54.6% Chris Smith
5th 52.0% 46.7% Josh Gottheimer
6th 57.2% 41.5% Frank Pallone Jr.
7th 54.2% 44.3% Tom Malinowski
8th 73.1% 25.9% Albio Sires
9th 62.1% 36.9% Bill Pascrell
10th 82.8% 16.4% Donald Payne Jr.
11th 52.9% 45.8% Mikie Sherrill
12th 67.3% 31.4% Bonnie Watson Coleman

[77]

Notes[]

  1. ^ This primary was conducted under a system in which each person could cast a vote for more than one candidate, therefore percentages reflect the percentage of voters that approved of each candidate, and as a result do not add up to 100%.
  2. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  5. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  6. ^ "Neither" with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%
  7. ^ Jump up to: a b "Another candidate or unsure" with 10%
  8. ^ "Refused" with 4%; "Someone else" with 1%
  9. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  10. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  11. ^ "Another candidate or unsure" with 15%
  12. ^ "For another candidate" with 7%
  13. ^ "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 1%
  14. ^ "Neither" with 4%; "someone else" with 1%

See also[]

  • United States presidential elections in New Jersey
  • 2020 New Jersey elections
  • Bilingual elections requirement for New Jersey (per Voting Rights Act Amendments of 2006)[78]
  • 2020 United States presidential election
  • 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
  • 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
  • 2020 United States elections

References[]

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  4. ^ Mehta, Dhrumil (September 18, 2020). "How Asian Americans Are Thinking About The 2020 Election". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
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  39. ^ > "Warren County Presidential Results".
  40. ^ > "Cape May County Presidential Results".
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  42. ^ > "Sussex County Presidential Results".
  43. ^ > "Sussex County Presidential Results".
  44. ^ > "Cumberland County Presidential Results".
  45. ^ > "Atlantic County Presidential Results".
  46. ^ > "Passaic County Presidential Results".
  47. ^ Jump up to: a b > "NJ DOS - Division of Elections - 2020 Election Information".
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  53. ^ [51][52]
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Further reading[]

External links[]

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