Opinion polling on Scottish independence
This page lists public opinion polls that have been conducted in relation to the issue of Scottish independence. A referendum on the subject was held on 18 September 2014.
2014 referendum[]
Many opinion polls were conducted about Scottish independence before the referendum and then during the campaign.[1][2][3][4][5][6][7] Professor John Curtice stated in January 2012 that polling had shown support for independence at between 32% and 38% of the Scottish population.[8] This had fallen somewhat since the SNP were first elected to become the Scottish Government in 2007.[8] The research also showed, however, that the proportion of the population strongly opposed to independence had also declined.[8] Curtice stated in April 2014 that support for independence had increased since December 2013, although there was disagreement between the polling companies as to the true state of public opinion.[9] Polls in the run-up to the referendum vote showed a closing of the gap, with one poll giving the Yes campaign a 51–49 lead. In the referendum, on 18 September 2014, Scotland voted against independence by 55.3% to 44.7%, with an overall turnout of 84.6%.[10][11]
Post-referendum polling[]
Since the referendum in September 2014, opinion polls have asked how people would vote in a hypothetical second referendum. These polls have been carried out since six weeks after the referendum.[12]
Sentiment in favour of independence was high immediately following the referendum, with the majority of polls published in the next six months showing a plurality in favour of 'Yes'. Over the next two years support for 'No' rose and support for 'Yes' fell. A Survation poll carried out in the two days prior to the UK general election on the 8th June 2017 showed the largest margin in favour of 'No' of 56% to 36%. By September 2017 five consecutive polls had shown a margin for 'No' greater than the 2014 referendum result. To date this has proven to be a peak for 'No'. Support for 'No' declined slowly until the end of 2018, and more quickly from the spring of 2019, at the height of parliamentary gridlock over Brexit. Professor John Curtice said in mid-2019 that the recent swing towards 'Yes' was concentrated among people who had voted to "Remain" in the 2016 Brexit referendum.[13] Throughout the later half of 2020, with the continuing unpopularity of Boris Johnson in Scotland and the strong leadership of First Minister Nicola Sturgeon during the first wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic, 'Yes' rose to constant plurality and in some polls majority levels of support. In October 2020 as the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic began, 'Yes' reached its peak to date when an Ipsos MORI poll for STV News showed a margin in favour of 'Yes' of 52% to 39%.[14] Since that point sentiment swung steadily back in favour of 'No', coinciding with the period when the Brexit trade deal was finally completed and the COVID-19 vaccination program was rolled out. Polls began to again generally show a plurality against independence around spring 2021 and in the run-up to the 2021 Scottish Parliament election.
Throughout the period, events have caused poll results to swing sharply. In the few days after the Brexit referendum in 2016, polls registered support for 'Yes' which was out of line with polling immediately before that referendum, and which disappeared a few weeks later. In July 2019, immediately following Boris Johnson's election as leader of the Conservative Party, a poll by Lord Ashcroft showed the first majority for 'Yes' in over 2 years. Again this poll was an isolated event, contradicted by polls immediately before and after, though it occurred at a time when there was a clear trend towards 'Yes'. Polls conducted in early March 2021, following testimony by Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon at a Holyrood parliamentary inquiry, showed narrow leads for 'No'.[15]
Date(s) conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Should Scotland be an independent country? | Lead | Notes | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | No | Undecided | |||||
10-16 March 2022 | Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman | 1,008 | 44% | 49% | 7% | 5% | |
24–28 Feb 2022 | ComRes/The Economist | 1,651 | 45% | 46% | 9% | 1% | |
14–18 Jan 2022 | Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman | 1,004 | 46% | 46% | 8% | Tied | |
15–22 Dec 2021 | Opinium/Daily Record | 1,328 | 44% | 44% | 12% | Tied | [a] |
22–29 Nov 2021 | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,107 | 52% | 43% | 4% | 9% | |
18–22 Nov 2021 | YouGov/The Times | 1,060 | 40% | 46% | 14% | 6% | |
9–12 Nov 2021 | Panelbase/SundayTimes | 1,781 | 45% | 47% | 8% | 2% | |
22–28 Oct 2021 | Savanta ComRes/Scotsman | 1,005 | 45% | 48% | 7% | 3% | |
20–26 Oct 2021 | Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop | 1,001 | 44% | 50% | 5% | 6% | |
18 Sep 2021 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies/Politico | 1,000 | 44% | 47% | 9% | 3% | |
6–10 Sep 2021 | Panelbase/SundayTimes | 2,003 | 45% | 49% | 6% | 4% | |
3–9 Sep 2021 | Savanta ComRes | 1,016 | 45% | 48% | 7% | 3% | |
1–8 Sep 2021 | Stack Data Strategy/UKonward | 1,007 | 45% | 49% | 6% | 4% | |
3–8 Sep 2021 | Opinium/Sky News | 1,014 | 44% | 43% | 13% | 1% | |
4–5 Aug 2021 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1,000 | 44% | 47% | 9% | 3% | |
16–24 Jun 2021 | Panelbase/The Sunday Times | 1,287 | 45% | 48% | 7% | 3% | |
11–14 May 2021 | Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman | 1,003 | 43% | 49% | 8% | 6% | |
7–8 May 2021 | Stack Data/Our Scottish Future[16] | 1,000 | 48% | 48% | 4% | Tied | [b] |
6 May 2021 | 2021 Scottish Parliament election | ||||||
30 Apr–4 May 2021 | Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman | 1,001 | 42% | 50% | 8% | 8% | |
2–4 May 2021 | YouGov/The Times | 1,144 | 41% | 46% | 13% | 5% | |
30 Apr–4 May 2021 | Survation/DC Thomson | 1,008 | 43% | 47% | 10% | 4% | |
28 Apr–3 May 2021 | Opinium/Sky News | 1,015 | 45% | 45% | 8% | Tied | |
30 Apr–3 May 2021 | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,502 | 47% | 47% | 6% | Tied | |
28–30 Apr 2021 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,096 | 48% | 45% | 6% | 3% | |
27–30 Apr 2021 | BMG/The Herald | 1,023 | 47% | 47% | 7% | Tied | |
23–27 Apr 2021 | Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman | 1,001 | 42% | 49% | 8% | 7% | |
23–26 Apr 2021 | Survation/Good Morning Britain | 1,008 | 42% | 47% | 11% | 5% | |
21–26 Apr 2021 | Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop | 1,075 | 47% | 48% | 6% | 1% | |
20–22 Apr 2021 | Survation/DC Thomson | 1,037 | 44% | 45% | 11% | 1% | |
16–20 Apr 2021 | Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman | 1,001 | 44% | 48% | 8% | 4% | |
16–20 Apr 2021 | YouGov/The Times | 1,204 | 39% | 45% | 16% | 6% | |
7–19 Apr 2021 | Lord Ashcroft | 2,017 | 44% | 45% | 11% | 1% | [c] |
9–12 Apr 2021 | Panelbase/Believe in Scotland | 1,002 | 48% | 46% | 6% | 2% | |
2–7 Apr 2021 | Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman | 1,007 | 45% | 45% | 9% | Tied | |
1–6 Apr 2021 | Opinium/Sky News | 1,023 | 47% | 45% | 6% | 2% | |
29 Mar–4 Apr 2021 | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,038 | 49% | 45% | 6% | 4% | |
30 Mar–1 Apr 2021 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,009 | 48% | 47% | 5% | 1% | |
29–30 Mar 2021 | Survation/DC Thomson | 1,021 | 45% | 44% | 11% | 1% | |
23–26 Mar 2021 | Find Out Now/Daily Express | 1,022 | 48% | 44% | 8% | 4% | |
16–19 Mar 2021 | BMG/Herald | 1,021 | 49% | 46% | 5% | 3% | |
11–18 Mar 2021 | Survation/DC Thomson | 2,047 | 43% | 45% | 12% | 2% | |
11–16 Mar 2021 | Opinium/Sky News | 1,096 | 45% | 43% | 8% | 2% | |
5–10 Mar 2021 | Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman | 1,009 | 45% | 47% | 8% | 2% | |
5–9 Mar 2021 | Hanbury Strategy[16] | 1,502 | 50% | 43% | 8% | 6% | |
4–8 Mar 2021 | YouGov/The Times | 1,100 | 41% | 43% | 14% | 2% | |
4–5 Mar 2021 | Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman | 1,015 | 43% | 46% | 10% | 3% | [d] |
3–5 Mar 2021 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,013 | 46% | 47% | 7% | 1% | |
26 Feb–4 Mar 2021 | Savanta ComRes/Daily Express | 1,004 | 43% | 45% | 12% | 2% | |
12 Feb–1 Mar 2021 | Hanbury Strategy | 3,946 | 52% | 41% | 7% | 11% | |
27 Feb 2021 | Anas Sarwar becomes leader of Scottish Labour | ||||||
25–26 Feb 2021 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,011 | 43% | 44% | 13% | 1% | |
18–22 Feb 2021 | Savanta ComRes/ITV News | 1,008 | 48% | 44% | 8% | 4% | |
15–21 Feb 2021 | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,031 | 48% | 44% | 7% | 4% | |
4–9 Feb 2021 | Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman | 1,002 | 43% | 46% | 11% | 3% | [e] |
19–22 Jan 2021 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,206 | 49% | 44% | 7% | 5% | |
14 Jan 2021 | Richard Leonard resigns as leader of Scottish Labour | ||||||
11–13 Jan 2021 | Survation/Scot Goes Pop | 1,020 | 45% | 43% | 12% | 2% | |
8–13 Jan 2021 | Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman | 1,016 | 47% | 43% | 10% | 4% | [e] |
31 Dec 2020 | The post-Brexit transition period ends | ||||||
11–15 Dec 2020 | Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman | 1,013 | 49% | 39% | 12% | 10% | [e] |
2–7 Dec 2020 | Survation | 1,018 | 44% | 42% | 14% | 2% | |
20–26 Nov 2020 | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,006 | 51% | 41% | 8% | 10% | |
5–11 Nov 2020 | Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop | 1,020 | 51% | 40% | 8% | 11% | |
6–10 Nov 2020 | YouGov | 1,089 | 43% | 42% | 10% | 1% | |
28 Oct–3 Nov 2020 | Survation | 1,071 | 47% | 40% | 13% | 7% | |
2–9 Oct 2020 | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,045 | 52% | 39% | 9% | 13% | |
9 Oct 2020 | Savanta ComRes | 1,003 | 47% | 42% | 11% | 5% | |
25 Sep��5 Oct 2020 | Survation/Progress Scotland | 2,093 | 49% | 42% | 9% | 7% | [f] |
17–21 Sep 2020 | JL Partners | 1,016 | 51% | 40% | 7% | 11% | [g] |
2–7 Sep 2020 | Survation | 1,018 | 46% | 40% | 13% | 6% | |
12–18 Aug 2020 | Panelbase/Business for Scotland | 1,011 | 51% | 42% | 7% | 9% | |
6–13 Aug 2020 | Savanta ComRes | 1,008 | 49% | 42% | 9% | 7% | |
6–10 Aug 2020 | YouGov/The Times | 1,142 | 45% | 40% | 9% | 5% | |
5 Aug 2020 | Douglas Ross becomes leader of the Scottish Conservatives | ||||||
30 Jul 2020 | Jackson Carlaw resigns as leader of the Scottish Conservatives | ||||||
30 Jun–3 Jul 2020 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,026 | 50% | 43% | 7% | 7% | |
15–19 Jun 2020 | Panelbase/Business for Scotland | 1,070 | 50% | 43% | 7% | 7% | |
1–5 Jun 2020 | Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop | 1,022 | 48% | 45% | 8% | 3% | |
1–5 May 2020 | Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland | 1,086 | 46% | 46% | 7% | Tied | |
24–26 Mar 2020 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,023 | 46% | 47% | 7% | 1% | |
1 March 2020 | COVID-19 pandemic confirmed to have spread to Scotland | ||||||
14 Feb 2020 | Jackson Carlaw becomes leader of the Scottish Conservatives | ||||||
7–14 Feb 2020 | YouGov/Hanbury Strategy | 2,587 | 45% | 46% | 8% | 1% | [h][i] |
31 Jan 2020 | The United Kingdom leaves the European Union | ||||||
28–31 Jan 2020 | Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop | 1,016 | 49% | 46% | 6% | 3% | |
22–27 Jan 2020 | YouGov | 1,039 | 43% | 42% | 10% | 1% | |
20–22 Jan 2020 | Survation/Progress Scotland | 1,019 | 45% | 45% | 10% | Tied | |
12 Dec 2019 | 2019 United Kingdom general election | ||||||
10–11 Dec 2019 | Survation/The Courier | 1,012 | 46% | 47% | 7% | 1% | |
3–6 Dec 2019 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,020 | 44% | 50% | 6% | 6% | |
3–6 Dec 2019 | YouGov/The Times | 1,008 | 38% | 48% | 12% | 10% | |
19–25 Nov 2019 | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,046 | 48% | 48% | 4% | Tied | |
20–22 Nov 2019 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,009 | 45% | 47% | 7% | 2% | |
9–11 Oct 2019 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,003 | 46% | 47% | 7% | 1% | |
30 Sep–9 Oct 2019 | Survation/Progress Scotland | 2,032 | 40% | 51% | 9% | 11% | [j] |
30 Aug–3 Sep 2019 | YouGov/The Times | 1,059 | 43% | 44% | 13% | 1% | |
29 Aug 2019 | Ruth Davidson resigns as leader of the Scottish Conservatives | ||||||
30 Jul–2 Aug 2019 | Lord Ashcroft | 1,019 | 46% | 43% | 12% | 3% | [c][h] |
24 Jul 2019 | Boris Johnson becomes the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom | ||||||
18–20 Jun 2019 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,024 | 46% | 48% | 6% | 2% | |
24 May 2019 | Theresa May announces her resignation as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom | ||||||
23 May 2019 | 2019 European Parliament election | ||||||
14–17 May 2019 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,021 | 45% | 49% | 6% | 4% | |
24–26 Apr 2019 | YouGov/The Times | 1,029 | 44% | 45% | 11% | 1% | |
18–24 Apr 2019 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,018 | 44% | 49% | 7% | 5% | |
15–21 Mar 2019 | Survation/Progress Scotland | 2,041 | 35% | 56% | 8% | 21% | [k] |
30 Nov–5 Dec 2018 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,028 | 45% | 51% | 4% | 6% | |
2–7 Nov 2018 | Panelbase/Constitutional Commission | 1,050 | 43% | 52% | 5% | 9% | |
18–21 Oct 2018 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,017 | 41% | 51% | 7% | 10% | |
3–5 Oct 2018 | Survation/Scottish National Party | 1,013 | 41% | 49% | 8% | 8% | |
28 Sep–4 Oct 2018 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,024 | 41% | 52% | 7% | 11% | |
28 Sep–2 Oct 2018 | Survation/Sunday Post | 1,036 | 43% | 49% | 8% | 6% | |
24–29 Aug 2018 | Deltapoll/OFOC & Best for Britain | 1,022 | 45% | 47% | 8% | 2% | [l] |
5–10 Jul 2018 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,002 | 41% | 47% | 12% | 6% | [h] |
8–13 Jun 2018 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,021 | 41% | 53% | 6% | 12% | |
1–5 Jun 2018 | YouGov/The Times | 1,075 | 41% | 50% | 6% | 9% | |
30 May–5 Jun 2018 | YouGov/Future of England | 1,052 | 41% | 47% | 12% | 6% | [m][h] |
23–28 Mar 2018 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,037 | 41% | 53% | 6% | 12% | |
5–11 Mar 2018 | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,050 | 46% | 50% | 4% | 4% | [h] |
24–28 Jan 2018 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,029 | 42% | 50% | 8% | 8% | |
12–16 Jan 2018 | YouGov/The Times | 1,002 | 37% | 50% | 10% | 13% | [h] |
1–5 Dec 2017 | Survation/Sunday Post | 1,006 | 42% | 49% | 8% | 7% | |
27–30 Nov 2017 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,017 | 42% | 48% | 10% | 6% | |
2–5 Oct 2017 | YouGov/The Times | 1,135 | 39% | 50% | 7% | 11% | [h] |
8–12 Sep 2017 | Survation/Scottish Daily Mail | 1,016 | 42% | 49% | 9% | 7% | |
31 Aug–7 Sep 2017 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,021 | 40% | 53% | 6% | 13% | |
9–13 Jun 2017 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,037 | 39% | 53% | 7% | 14% | |
8 Jun 2017 | 2017 United Kingdom general election | ||||||
6–7 Jun 2017 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,001 | 36% | 56% | 7% | 20% | |
2–7 Jun 2017 | Panelbase | 1,106 | 41% | 53% | 6% | 12% | |
1–5 Jun 2017 | YouGov/The Times | 1,093 | 38% | 50% | 8% | 12% | [h] |
31 May–2 Jun 2017 | Survation/Sunday Post | 1,024 | 42% | 50% | 8% | 8% | |
22–27 May 2017 | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,016 | 45% | 51% | 3% | 6% | [h] |
15–18 May 2017 | YouGov/The Times | 1,032 | 39% | 49% | 8% | 10% | [h] |
4 May 2017 | 2017 Scottish local elections | ||||||
24–27 Apr 2017 | YouGov/The Times | 1,017 | 40% | 49% | 8% | 9% | [h] |
18–21 Apr 2017 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,029 | 43% | 52% | 5% | 9% | |
18–21 Apr 2017 | Survation/Sunday Post | 1,018 | 43% | 48% | 9% | 5% | [h] |
7–11 Apr 2017 | BMG/Herald | 1,041 | 43% | 45% | 12% | 2% | |
29 Mar–11 Apr 2017 | Kantar | 1,060 | 37% | 55% | 8% | 18% | |
13–17 Mar 2017 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,008 | 42% | 53% | 5% | 11% | |
9–14 Mar 2017 | YouGov/The Times | 1,028 | 37% | 48% | 11% | 11% | [h] |
8–13 Mar 2017 | Survation/Scottish Daily Mail | 1,019 | 43% | 48% | 9% | 5% | |
13 Mar 2017 | Nicola Sturgeon announces the intention to seek approval for a Section 30 order enabling an independence referendum | ||||||
24 Feb–6 Mar 2017 | Ipsos MORI/STV[dead link] | 1,029 | 47% | 46% | 6% | 1% | |
23–27 Feb 2017 | BMG/Herald | 1,009 | 41% | 44% | 15% | 3% | |
7–13 Feb 2017 | Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland | 1,028 | 44% | 51% | 6% | 7% | |
26–31 Jan 2017 | BMG/Herald | 1,067 | 43% | 45% | 10% | 2% | |
20–26 Jan 2017 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,020 | 43% | 51% | 7% | 8% | |
9–16 Dec 2016 | BMG/Herald | 1,002 | 40% | 47% | 13% | 7% | |
29 Aug–16 Dec 2016 | YouGov | 3,166 | 39% | 47% | 11% | 8% | [h] |
24–29 Nov 2016 | YouGov/The Times | 1,134 | 38% | 49% | 13% | 11% | |
9–15 Sep 2016 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,024 | 44% | 50% | 7% | 6% | |
5–11 Sep 2016 | Ipsos MORI/STV[permanent dead link] | 1,000 | 45% | 50% | 5% | 5% | |
5–10 Sep 2016 | Survation | 1,073 | 42% | 48% | 10% | 6% | |
10 Aug–4 Sep 2016 | TNS | 1,047 | 41% | 47% | 12% | 6% | |
29–31 Aug 2016 | YouGov/The Times | 1,039 | 40% | 46% | 13% | 6% | [h] |
20–25 Jul 2016 | YouGov | 1,005 | 40% | 45% | 14% | 5% | [h] |
13 Jul 2016 | Theresa May becomes the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom | ||||||
24–28 Jun 2016 | Survation/Scottish Daily Mail | 1,055 | 47% | 41% | 12% | 6% | |
25–26 Jun 2016 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 626 | 47% | 44% | 8% | 3% | |
25 Jun 2016 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,002 | 48% | 41% | 9% | 7% | |
24 Jun 2016 | David Cameron announces his resignation as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom | ||||||
23 Jun 2016 | 2016 EU membership referendum | ||||||
5 May 2016 | 2016 Scottish Parliament election | ||||||
2–4 May 2016 | YouGov/The Times | 1,445 | 41% | 48% | 12% | 7% | |
23–28 Apr 2016 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,074 | 44% | 49% | 6% | 5% | |
15–20 Apr 2016 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,005 | 44% | 47% | 9% | 3% | |
6–15 Apr 2016 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,021 | 45% | 51% | 5% | 6% | |
7–11 Apr 2016 | YouGov/The Times | 1,012 | 41% | 49% | 10% | 8% | |
10–17 Mar 2016 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,051 | 44% | 47% | 9% | 3% | |
7–9 Mar 2016 | YouGov/The Times | 1,070 | 40% | 47% | 12% | 7% | |
25–29 Feb 2016 | Survation/Scottish Daily Mail | 1,022 | 44% | 49% | 7% | 5% | |
11–16 Feb 2016 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,006 | 42% | 48% | 9% | 6% | |
1–7 Feb 2016 | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,000 | 49% | 45% | 5% | 4% | |
1–4 Feb 2016 | YouGov/The Times | 1,022 | 43% | 51% | 7% | 8% | |
8–14 Jan 2016 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,053 | 44% | 50% | 7% | 6% | |
8–12 Jan 2016 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,029 | 45% | 47% | 8% | 2% | |
6–13 Nov 2015 | Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland | 1,074 | 47% | 49% | 5% | 2% | |
9–13 Oct 2015 | YouGov/The Times | 1,026 | 45% | 49% | 6% | 4% | |
7–10 Sep 2015 | Survation/Scottish Daily Mail | 1,010 | 45% | 46% | 9% | 1% | |
7–10 Sep 2015 | YouGov/The Times | 1,110 | 45% | 49% | 6% | 4% | |
4–10 Sep 2015 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,005 | 45% | 51% | 3% | 6% | |
12 Aug–1 Sep 2015 | TNS | 1,023 | 47% | 42% | 11% | 5% | |
24–30 Aug 2015 | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,002 | 53% | 44% | 3% | 9% | |
3–7 Jul 2015 | Survation/Scottish Daily Mail | 1,084 | 43% | 47% | 10% | 4% | |
26 Jun–3 Jul 2015 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,002 | 45% | 50% | 5% | 5% | |
19–21 May 2015 | YouGov/Sunday Post | 1,108 | 44% | 49% | 7% | 5% | |
7 May 2015 | 2015 United Kingdom general election. | ||||||
3–6 May 2015 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,660 | 44% | 47% | 9% | 3% | |
29 Apr–1 May 2015 | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,162 | 43% | 49% | 8% | 6% | |
22–27 Apr 2015 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,015 | 46% | 47% | 7% | 1% | |
20–23 Apr 2015 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,044 | 45% | 48% | 7% | 3% | |
8–9 Apr 2015 | YouGov/The Times | 1,056 | 46% | 49% | 6% | 3% | |
13–19 Mar 2015 | ICM/Guardian | 1,002 | 41% | 48% | 11% | 7% | |
12–17 Mar 2015 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,027 | 45% | 43% | 11% | 2% | |
10–12 Mar 2015 | YouGov/The Times | 1,049 | 45% | 48% | 8% | 3% | |
12–17 Feb 2015 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,011 | 43% | 47% | 10% | 4% | |
29 Jan–2 Feb 2015 | YouGov/The Times | 1,001 | 49% | 44% | 7% | 5% | |
9–11 Dec 2014 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,001 | 48% | 48% | 4% | Tied | |
9–11 Dec 2014 | YouGov/The Sun | 1,081 | 48% | 45% | 6% | 3% | |
27 Nov 2014 | Release of Smith Commission report. | ||||||
19 Nov 2014 | Nicola Sturgeon becomes First Minister of Scotland. | ||||||
6–13 Nov 2014 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,001 | 44% | 49% | 7% | 5% | |
30 Oct–5 Nov 2014 | Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland | 982 | 46% | 45% | 8% | 1% | |
27–30 Oct 2014 | YouGov/The Times | 1,078 | 49% | 45% | 6% | 4% | |
18 September 2014 | 2014 Scottish independence referendum results | 3,623,344 | 44.7% | 55.3% | 10.6% |
Remain / Leave question[]
Instead of using the question posed in the 2014 referendum ("Should Scotland be an independent country?"), some polls have adopted the remain / leave formulation that was used in the 2016 Brexit referendum. In the context of Scottish independence, this means that the question would be asked in the fashion of "Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?". The use of this format has been criticised by Scottish nationalists; SNP depute leader Keith Brown said in September 2019 that it was "a deliberate bid to confuse independence with Brexit".[19]
Date(s) conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom? | Lead | Notes | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Leave | Remain | Undecided | |||||
18–22 Nov 2021 | Survation/Scotland in Union | 1,045 | 38% | 54% | 8% | 16% | |
31 Aug–1 Sep 2021 | Survation/Scotland in Union | 1,040 | 39% | 52% | 9% | 13% | |
9–12 Mar 2021 | Survation/Scotland in Union | 1,011 | 37% | 49% | 10% | 12% | |
10–12 Sep 2020 | Survation/Scotland in Union | 1,008 | 37% | 47% | 11% | 10% | |
12–16 Sep 2019 | Survation/Scotland in Union | 1,003 | 38% | 55% | 9% | 17% | |
18–23 Apr 2019 | Survation/Scotland in Union | 1,012 | 36% | 56% | 7% | 20% | |
9–13 Nov 2018 | Survation/Scotland in Union | 1,013 | 36% | 55% | 9% | 19% | |
28 Sep–4 Oct 2016 | BMG/Herald | 1,010 | 39% | 47% | 15% | 8% | |
18 September 2014 | 2014 Scottish independence referendum results | 3,623,344 | 44.7% | 55.3% | 10.6% |
Three-option polling[]
Prior to the Scottish independence referendum in 2014, some three option opinion polls were conducted, giving respondents the option of full independence, some (undefined) form of increased devolution and the status quo. One poll of this type has been conducted since the EU membership referendum.
Date(s) conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Independence | Devolution Max | Status Quo | Undecided | Ref. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24-28 Jan 2018 | Survation/Scottish Independence Referendum Party | 32% | 15% | 36% | 17% | [20] |
Polling on a second independence referendum[]
Polling has asked respondents in Scotland whether they support or oppose a proposed second Scottish independence referendum after the first Scottish independence referendum held in 2014.
Date(s) conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Do you support or oppose a second referendum on Scottish independence? | Lead | Notes | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Support | Oppose | Undecided | |||||
22–28 Oct 2021 | Savanta ComRes/Scotsman | 1,005 | 45% | 47% | 9% | 2% | |
31 Aug–1 Sep 2021 | Survation/Scotland in Union | 1,040 | 38% | 52% | 9% | 14% |
Timing of a second referendum[]
Date(s) conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Do you think another Scottish independence referendum should be held in the next 12 months, in the next 2-5 years or there should not be another referendum in the next few years? | Lead | Notes | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12 Months | In the next 2-5 years | No referendum | Don't know | |||||
22 Nov 2021 | YouGov | 1,060 | 45% | 41% | 13% | 4% | ||
12 Nov 2021 | Panelbase | 1,781 | 19% | 34% | 46% | 6% | [21] | |
10 Sept 2021 | Panelbase | 2,003 | 17% | 36% | 47% | 5% | [21] | |
24 June 2021 | Panelbase | 1,287 | 19% | 35% | 46% | 7% | [21] | |
4 May 2021 | YouGov | 1,144 | 44% | 41% | 15% | 3% | ||
30 April 2021 | Panelbase | 1,096 | 22% | 33% | 45% | 10% | [21] | |
20 April 2021 | YouGov | 1,204 | 44% | 40% | 16% | 4% | ||
1 April 2021 | Panelbase | 1009 | 25% | 29% | 46% | 8% | [21] | |
8 March 2021 | YouGov | 1,100 | 42% | 39% | 19% | 3% | ||
5 March 2021 | Panelbase | 1,013 | 25% | 30% | 45% | 10% | [21] |
Historical polling[]
Two-way polling[]
Respondents were asked "In a referendum on independence for Scotland, how would you vote?", with the options "I agree that Scotland should become an independent country" and "I do not agree that Scotland should become an independent country". These polls indicated the following levels of support for Scotland to be an independent country each year:[23][24]
Year | Agree | Disagree | Lead |
---|---|---|---|
2009 | 40% | 52% | 12% |
2007 | 39.5% | 45% | 5.5% |
2006 | 51% | 39% | 12% |
2001 | 45% | 49% | 4% |
2000 | 47% | 43% | 4% |
1999 | 43.5% | 46% | 2.5% |
1998 | 52% | 39.5% | 12.5% |
Three-way polling[]
During the late 1970s and 1980s, MORI conducted opinion polls on whether Scots wanted full independence, devolution or the status quo. During this period, devolution was the preferred option in each opinion poll, although support for independence increased.
Date(s) conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Independence | Devolution | Status Quo | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
5 Apr 1978 | MORI | 20% | 52% | 25% | 4% |
March 1979 | MORI | 14% | 42% | 35% | 9% |
3 May 1979 | 1979 United Kingdom general election | ||||
February 1981 | MORI | 25% | 46% | 30% | 0% |
May 1981 | MORI | 25% | 50% | 25% | 0% |
September 1981 | MORI | 23% | 47% | 31% | 0% |
November 1981 | MORI | 22% | 47% | 26% | 5% |
February 1982 | MORI | 23% | 53% | 19% | 5% |
April 1982 | MORI | 22% | 45% | 27% | 6% |
November 1982 | MORI | 22% | 47% | 26% | 5% |
March 1983 | MORI | 23% | 48% | 26% | 2% |
4 Jun 1983 | MORI | 23% | 51% | 22% | 4% |
9 Jun 1983 | 1983 United Kingdom general election | ||||
29 Feb-1 Mar 1984 | MORI | 25% | 45% | 27% | 3% |
24-25 Feb 1986 | MORI | 33% | 47% | 14% | 6% |
6-7 Mar 1987 | MORI | 32% | 50% | 15% | 3% |
May 1987 | MORI | 29% | 41% | 25% | 5% |
11 Jun 1987 | 1987 United Kingdom general election | ||||
April 1988 | MORI | 35% | 42% | 20% | 3% |
Four-way polling[]
Between 1988 and 1995, MORI polled voters on independence giving four opinions: independence inside the European Economic Community (European Union after 1992), independence outside the organisation, devolution and the status quo.
Date(s) conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Independence outside the EEC | Independence inside the EEC | Devolution | Status Quo | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1-3 Dec 1988 | MORI | 10% | 24% | 46% | 16% | 4% |
25-28 Feb 1989 | MORI | 11% | 24% | 42% | 20% | 3% |
1-2 Jun 1989 | MORI | 12% | 22% | 49% | 15% | 2% |
11-13 Sep 1989 | MORI | 9% | 27% | 44% | 18% | 2% |
22-28 Feb 1990 | MORI | 10% | 24% | 44% | 19% | 3% |
15-20 May 1990 | MORI | 8% | 29% | 45% | 16% | 2% |
14-18 Jun 1990 | MORI | 10% | 28% | 43% | 17% | 2% |
19-22 Jul 1990 | MORI | 10% | 27% | 44% | 16% | 3% |
16-20 Aug 1990 | MORI | 7% | 31% | 44% | 16% | 2% |
19-23 Sep 1990 | MORI | 9% | 28% | 44% | 17% | 2% |
18-22 Oct 1990 | MORI | 9% | 30% | 44% | 15% | 2% |
15-18 Nov 1990 | MORI | 9% | 28% | 45% | 17% | 1% |
29 Nov 1990 | Margaret Thatcher resigns as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom | |||||
5-10 Dec 1990 | MORI | 7% | 25% | 49% | 17% | 2% |
17-20 Jan 1991 | MORI | 7% | 28% | 42% | 21% | 2% |
21-24 Feb 1991 | MORI | 10% | 23% | 45% | 20% | 2% |
21-24 Mar 1991 | MORI | 8% | 27% | 42% | 21% | 2% |
7-25 Mar 1991 | MORI | 9% | 23% | 51% | 16% | 1% |
18-20 Apr 1991 | MORI | 9% | 28% | 42% | 19% | 2% |
23-27 May 1991 | MORI | 7% | 26% | 45% | 19% | 3% |
20-24 Jun 1991 | MORI | 8% | 26% | 47% | 17% | 2% |
18-22 Jul 1991 | MORI | 8% | 28% | 43% | 18% | 3% |
22-26 Aug 1991 | MORI | 9% | 26% | 47% | 17% | 1% |
19-23 Sep 1991 | MORI | 9% | 26% | 45% | 17% | 3% |
17-21 Oct 1991 | MORI | 9% | 28% | 46% | 15% | 2% |
21-25 Nov 1991 | MORI | 8% | 26% | 47% | 16% | 3% |
12-16 Dec 1991 | MORI | 9% | 31% | 40% | 17% | 3% |
16-20 Jan 1992 | MORI | 9% | 31% | 42% | 15% | 3% |
20-24 Feb 1992 | MORI | 7% | 29% | 37% | 23% | - |
12 Mar 1992 | MORI | 8% | 26% | 42% | 20% | - |
19 Mar 1992 | MORI | 8% | 26% | 42% | 23% | - |
26 Mar 1992 | MORI | 7% | 27% | 44% | 20% | - |
2 Apr 1992 | MORI | 6% | 22% | 45% | 23% | - |
9 Apr 1992 | 1992 United Kingdom general election | |||||
23-27 Apr 1992 | MORI | 5% | 22% | 47% | 25% | 1% |
21-25 May 1992 | MORI | 5% | 23% | 48% | 21% | 3% |
18-22 Jun 1992 | MORI | 5% | 29% | 40% | 23% | 3% |
23-27 Jul 1992 | MORI | 7% | 28% | 41% | 21% | 3% |
21 Apr-8 May 1995 | MORI | 9% | 20% | 52% | 17% | 2% |
Scottish Social Attitudes Survey[]
Since devolution, the annual Scottish Social Attitudes Survey has contained a question on independence.
Respondents are asked Which of these statements comes closest to your view?
- Scotland should become independent, separate from the UK and the European Union
- Scotland should become independent, separate from the UK but part of the European Union
- Scotland should remain part of the UK, with its own elected parliament which has some taxation powers
- Scotland should remain part of the UK, with its own elected parliament which has no taxation powers
- Scotland should remain part of the UK without an elected parliament.
A report released in 2017, entitled From Indyref1 to Indyref2? The State of Nationalism in Scotland, detailed the previous responses from this survey by grouping options one and two as "independence", options three and four as "devolution" and option five as "No Parliament".
Within the rest of the United Kingdom[]
England[]
Date(s) conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Should Scotland be an independent country? | Lead | Notes | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | No | Undecided | |||||
18 June–2 July 2021 | Panelbase/The Sunday Times | 17% | 54% | 29% | 37% |
Wales[]
Date(s) conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Should Scotland be an independent country? | Lead | Notes | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | No | Undecided | |||||
18 June–2 July 2021 | Panelbase/The Sunday Times | 195 | 14% | 58% | 28% | 44% |
British Social Attitudes Survey[]
The British Social Attitudes Survey has asked voters in England how Scotland should be governed, since the 1997 British Election Study. It has always found a plurality in favour of devolution, with majorities in favour between 1997 and 2003 and again in 2017. Since 2011, when the Scottish National Party won a majority in the Scottish Parliament, there has always been one in five people in England in favour of Scottish independence.
Year | Polling organisation/client | Independence | Devolution | No Parliament |
---|---|---|---|---|
1997 | British Election Study | 14% | 55% | 23% |
1999 | British Social Attitudes Survey | 21% | 57% | 14% |
2000 | British Social Attitudes Survey | 19% | 52% | 17% |
2001 | British Social Attitudes Survey | 19% | 60% | 11% |
2002 | British Social Attitudes Survey | 19% | 52% | 15% |
2003 | British Social Attitudes Survey | 17% | 58% | 13% |
2007 | British Social Attitudes Survey | 19% | 48% | 18% |
2011 | British Social Attitudes Survey | 26% | 44% | 19% |
2012 | British Social Attitudes Survey | 25% | 43% | 23% |
2013 | British Social Attitudes Survey | 20% | 49% | 18% |
2015 | British Social Attitudes Survey | 23% | 49% | 20% |
2017 | British Social Attitudes Survey | 22% | 55% | 15% |
Notes[]
- ^ Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds
- ^ Results are limited to only those who state they will definitely vote. Those who are likely voters, don’t know, or wouldn’t vote are excluded.[17]
- ^ a b Lord Ashcroft is not a member of the British Polling Council
- ^ The voting intention was not weighted by likelihood to vote. Savanta ComRes said that the poll result "should not be treated as a headline Savanta ComRes voting intention".[18]
- ^ a b c Savanta ComRes revised their figures in three polls after a weighting error was discovered.
- ^ Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "On a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 means ‘I completely oppose Scotland becoming an independent country’ and 10 means ‘I completely support Scotland becoming an independent country’ what number would you consider yourself to be?". Respondents giving answers between 0 to 4 and 6 to 10 have been mapped to No and Yes here respectively, while respondents giving 5 or "don't know" as answer have been assigned as undecided.
- ^ JL Partners was not a member of the British Polling Council at the time of this poll
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds
- ^ Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "If another Scottish Independence Referendum were held today, how would you vote?" "Yes to an independent Scotland", "No to an independent Scotland", "I will not vote" and "I am not registered to vote" were the options given.
- ^ Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "On a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 means ‘I completely support Scotland staying part of the UK’ and 10 means ‘I completely support Scotland becoming independent’ what number would you consider yourself to be?". Respondents giving answers between 0 to 4 and 6 to 10 have been mapped to No and Yes here respectively, while respondents giving 5 or "don't know" as answer have been assigned as undecided.
- ^ Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "On a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 means ‘I completely support Scotland becoming independent’ and 10 means ‘I completely support Scotland staying part of the UK’ what number would you consider yourself to be?". Respondents giving answers between 0 to 4 and 6 to 10 have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively, while respondents giving 5 or "don't know" as answer have been assigned as undecided.
- ^ Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "In a referendum on independence for Scotland held tomorrow, how would you vote?" and given the options of "For Scotland to become an independent country" and "For Scotland to remain as part of the United Kingdom", which have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively.
- ^ Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "Do you agree that Scotland should become an independent country?" and given the options of "Yes" and "No".
References[]
- ^ Hennessy, Patrick; Kite, Melissa (26 November 2006). "Britain wants UK break up, poll shows". The Daily Telegraph. London.
- ^ Hennessy, Patrick (15 January 2012). "Britain divided over Scottish Independence". The Daily Telegraph. London.
- ^ Allardyce, Jason (15 March 2009). "Voters ditch SNP over referendum". The Times. London. Retrieved 16 March 2009.
- ^ "Scottish Independence". Retrieved 8 September 2014.
- ^ "Independence Poll" (PDF). Retrieved 8 September 2014.
- ^ "Support for independence growing". Herald Scotland. Retrieved 8 September 2014.
- ^ Dinwoodie, Robbie (5 September 2011). "Yes voters take lead in new independence poll". The Herald. Glasgow. Retrieved 5 September 2011.
- ^ a b c "Q&A: Scottish independence row". BBC News. BBC. 17 January 2012. Retrieved 19 January 2012.
- ^ Curtice, John (24 April 2014). "Scottish independence: Depending on the pollster, it looks like a photo finish". The Independent. Retrieved 25 April 2014.
- ^ "Scottish referendum: Scotland votes 'No' to independence". BBC News. 19 September 2014. Retrieved 19 September 2014.
- ^ "Referendum results: Turnout a record high as Scots vote No to independence". Scotland Now. 19 September 2014. Retrieved 20 September 2014.
- ^ "New poll: Scotland would back indy if fresh vote was held now". The Herald. 1 November 2014. Retrieved 13 March 2015.
- ^ "Nicola Sturgeon points to 'growing urgency' for Scottish independence". BBC News. 5 August 2019. Retrieved 6 August 2019.
- ^ Cowburn, Ashley (14 October 2020). "Clear majority in favour of Scottish independence, poll shows". The Independent. Retrieved 14 October 2020.
- ^ "Scottish independence: More would vote for remaining in UK if referendum were held tomorrow, poll suggests". Sky News. Retrieved 2021-03-07.
- ^ a b "How would you vote in a Scottish independence referendum if held now? (asked after the EU referendum)". What Scotland Thinks. Retrieved 6 June 2021.
- ^ "Stackosf_post_election.pdf". Google Docs.
- ^ "SNAP POLL - THE SCOTSMAN". Savanta ComRes. Retrieved 11 March 2021.
- ^ Schofield, Kevin (18 September 2019). "Majority of Scots would vote to 'remain in the UK', according to new poll". Politics Home. Retrieved 29 September 2020.
- ^ "Poll: Support for Scottish independence at 32%". The Scotsman. 6 February 2018.
- ^ a b c d e f Lead combines responses in favour of a referendum within the next 12 months and responses in favour of a referendum within the next 2-5 years.
- ^ "Do you think another Scottish independence referendum should be held in the next 12 months, in the next 2-5 years or there should not be another referendum in the next few years? - What Scotland Thinks". whatscotlandthinks.org.
- ^ "A Crisis of the Union" (PDF). Paul Cairney. Retrieved 19 March 2018.
- ^ The Scottish Political System Since Devolution: From New Politics to the New Scottish Government. Paul Cairney. 30 January 2012. ISBN 9781845403386. Retrieved 22 March 2018.
External links[]
- Scottish independence
- Opinion polling in Scotland
- Opinion polling about independence