State collapse

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State collapse, breakdown, or downfall, is the complete failure of a mode of government within a sovereign state. Sometimes this brings about a failed state, as in Somalia and the final decade of Yugoslavia. More often, there is an immediate process of transition to a new administration, and basic services such as tax collection, defence, police, civil service, and courts are maintained throughout, as in South Africa following the failure of the apartheid system.

State collapse may coincide with economic collapse. State collapse is not always synonymous with societal collapse, which often is a more prolonged process, as in the fall of the western Roman Empire.

Not all attempts at regime change succeed in bringing about state collapse. For example, the 16th-century Babington plot to assassinate Queen Elizabeth I of England, the 19th-century Decembrist revolt in Russia, and the 20th-century Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba failed.

History of the concept[]

For Aristotle (384–322 BC), the inherent dangers of democracy were, first, that conflict between the aristocracy and the poor was inevitable; and second, that it would usher in "mischief and corruption". Both processes would lead to collapse unless independent controls and separation of powers were enforced.^{[1][self-published source]} The ancient Greek philosopher Polybius (c.200 – c.118 BC) asserted that all nations follow a cycle: democracy, oligarchy, dictatorship, tyranny and collapse.^{[2][self-published source]}

Islamic scholar Ibn Khaldun (1332 – 1406) also produced a general theory of state collapse. A "theological rationalist", he transformed the study of history into a "new science".^[3] In his eyes, dynasties repeatedly become "sedentary, senile, coercive, pompous, subservient to desire ... liable to divisions in the dynasty." Group feeling (asabiyyah, groupthink) disappears as the dynasty grows senile. Ibn Khaldun was fatalistic: "This senility is a chronic disease which cannot be cured because it is something natural".^[4] He observed that dynasties last for three generations before a new invading clique, "restless, alert and courageous", will cause the old to collapse ^[5] in accordance with the principle in the Book of Exodus, chapter 20, verse four: God "visits the sins of the fathers onto their children, even unto the third and fourth generation of those that hate Him". Professor Geoff Mulgan discusses Ibn Khaldun in detail and agrees on the timescale: "There are obvious parallels between the lifespans of individuals and those of ruling groups."^[6]

J.J. Saunders,^[7] claiming in 1966 that "our age, like his, is one of misery", regrets that Ibn Khaldun had "no predecessors and no successors ... not until four centuries after his death did he rise from his long sleep." In 1868 French Arabists translated the Muqaddimah; "the world was amazed, but he remained a lonely pioneer without followers ... the world has yet to prove that history can exist independently of the theological setting that gives it meaning".^[8]

The Japanese philosopher Hajime Tanabe points to the quasi-religious role of the state to mediate between mortal individuals and the eternal universe, so that states regularly collapse; like religious figures, they must undergo a process of death and resurrection. In his view this may account for the perennial popularity of states because they regularly demonstrate their ability to transcend death.^[9]

According to psychologist Erich Fromm it is possible for an entire nation, if they all share the same vices and errors, to become insane—a "folie a millions". Inhuman treatment by the rulers inevitably leads to collapse;

Despots and ruling cliques can succeed in dominating and exploiting their fellow man ... but their subjects react ... with apathy, impairment of intelligence, initiative and skills ... or they react by the accumulation of such hate and destructiveness as to bring about an end to themselves, their rulers and their system. ... if man lives under conditions contrary to his nature and to human growth and sanity, he cannot help reacting.'^[10]

Mark Blyth alleges that a democracy can also collapse "if voters don't get what they want and merely affirm the status quo." In these circumstances, voters deprived of real choice may opt for the least democratic option.^[11]

Marina Ottaway^[12] discusses the collapse of the Austro-Hungarian Empire and Ottoman Empire in 1918, British India in 1947, the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the collapse of South Africa's white supremacist government in 1993, of Czechoslovakia the following year, and of Yugoslavia. Harold Perkin^[13] sees "an acceleration of the process of collapse ... the [20th century] saw the collapse of seven great empires: Imperial China, Germany, Austria-Hungary, Ottoman Turkey, the Japanese empire, the British Empire, and Russia, twice". Furthermore, the 20th Century saw the collapse of the French and Portuguese Empires.

John Kenneth Galbraith regrets the "very slight" amount of research on political power in such cases.^[14] Power regularly passes to those who "assert the unknown with the greatest conviction... not necessarily related to intelligence."^[15] What we call "power" is, "in practice, the illusion of power."^[16] Discussing how the "powerless" Mahatma Gandhi brought about the collapse of militarily "powerful" British India, Galbraith reflects that power, mostly seen as a possession of states and their leaders, would be better viewed as a flow, into and away from "those instruments that enforce it".^[17]

Few political scientists credibly predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union or agreed on its causes.^[18] No one predicted the Arab spring.^[19] Though many writings study particular cases of state collapse in isolation,^[20] there appears to be no contemporary text which compares events on a global historical basis and identifies common features.^[21]

Martin Wight, like Saunders, deplored the "demonic concentrations of power" of the defeated countries in the two world wars. A devout Christian, he saw their "triumphant self-destruction" as "Antichrist moments".^[22] He disliked the modern secular tendency to view politics as a succession of questions (the Eastern question, the two-state solution) with "solutions" which are devoid of moral content,^[23] because

The members of international society are, on the whole, immortals. States do die or disappear occasionally, but mostly they outlive the span of human life. They are partnerships of the living with posterity ... A society of immortals will be looser than one of mortals ... there are moral difficulties about indicting a whole nation, because (to do so) would make the passive majority suffer for the acts of the criminal minority, and future generations for the sins of the fathers.^[24]

Regarding the idea of a state being immortal, the nation called Russia has survived the collapse of two different political systems: Imperial Russia, a monarchy, in 1917; and the Soviet Union, a communist totalitarianism, in 1991.^[25] Likewise, though Germany, ruled by the Nazi Party, was defeated in 1945 and the nation, Germany, was dismembered, it was resurrected in 1990.^[26]

Christopher Booker describes a fantasy cycle of wishful thinking in politics in which a "dream stage" of optimism and expansion is followed by "frustration" and "nightmare" stages and a final "explosion into reality".

Examples[]

Examples of state collapse through civil war include: the War of the Roses in 15th-century England; the Thirty years war (1618–48); the Irish Civil War (1916–22); the Chinese Communist Revolution (1949); and the Cuban Revolution (1958). State collapses through revolutions, not featuring civil war, took place in Imperial China (1911) and in Iran (1979). Collapse through Coups d'etat occurred in Egypt (1952), in Iraq (1958), and in Libya (1969). Negotiated surrenders of power took place in the English Commonwealth (1660); and in the collapse of the Soviet Union (1991), when it fragmented into fifteen independent states.

Medieval England was the scene of several violent dynastic collapses: the fall of the West Saxon kings, when William the Conqueror defeated Harold Godwinson in 1066;^[27] the civil war known as The Anarchy from 1139–1153 between Stephen and Empress Matilda, a time when "Christ and his saints were asleep", which ended the Norman line of kings;^[28] the reign of the last Angevin, John, King of England, known as "Lackland";^[29] the tyranny of the last Plantagenet monarch, Richard II, who was defeated by Henry, duke of Lancaster, later Henry IV;^[30] the destruction of the Lancastrian dynasty during the Wars of the Roses, and especially at the battle of Tewkesbury in 1471;^[31] and the battle of Bosworth, which saw the end of Richard III and the Yorkist line ^[32]

The Taiping Rebellion (1850–1864) was a civil war in China between the established Manchu-led Qing dynasty and the Christian millenarian movement of the Heavenly Kingdom of Peace. It was the second-worst conflict in history; 20-30 million died over 15 years. In 1858–60 the Qing dynasty effectively collapsed as France and the UK invaded and imposed unequal treaties. In 1864 the Taiping regime also collapsed and the dynasty was reshaped in the Tongzhi Restoration.

The partition of India in 1947 led to the creation of two independent nations, India and Pakistan.^[33] The partition displaced between 10 and 12 million Sikhs, Hindus and Muslims, creating overwhelming refugee crises; there was large-scale violence, with estimates of loss of life accompanying or preceding the partition disputed and varying between several hundred thousand and two million.^{[34][a][full citation needed]}

Failed attempts at reform in the Soviet Union, a standstill economy, and defeat in the war in Afghanistan led to a general feeling of discontent, especially in the Baltic republics and Eastern Europe.^[35] Greater political and social freedoms, instituted by the last Soviet leader, Mikhail Gorbachev's policies of Glasnost and Perestroika encouraged open criticism of the communist regime. The dramatic drop of the price of oil in 1985 and 1986 profoundly influenced actions of the Soviet leadership.^[36] The Reagan administration in the 1980s placed Pershing II missiles in western Europe in order to escalate the Cold War, overstretch the USSR economy and bring about its downfall because "they can't sustain military spending the way we can".^[37] The dissolution of the Soviet Union took several years, starting with Mikhail Gorbachev's attempt at revitalization through libralization, followed by revolutions and independence of various republics, a failed coup, and eventual dissolution into component republics, with Russia as the rump successor state.

The Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia collapsed in the 1990s, when its six socialist republics broke apart to become separate countries; though Slovenia seceded peacefully, civil wars broke out in Croatia, Bosnia and Kosovo, then part of Serbia. Ethnic cleansing and genocide erupted, including the Srebrenica massacre and Bosnian genocide.

The apartheid system in South Africa ended through negotiations between the governing National Party, the African National Congress, and other political organizations, resulting in South Africa's first non-racial election, which was won by the African National Congress. Concerns were raised about the future of its nuclear weapons but they were dismantled.^[38]

Potential sources of instability[]

• In undemocratic regimes, lack of succession planning and disputes over leadership succession ^[39]
• Overwhelming amount of immigration (as happened in Mexican Texas and the Kingdom of Hawaii) or a flood of refugees^[40]
• Religious, ethnic, sectarian, or ideological conflict (Cold War, Israeli-Palestinian conflict, apartheid, Islamic fundamentalism, white supremacy, The Troubles, Rwandan genocide, abolitionism)
• A strategic location or natural resource, attempts at territorial expansion, or certain alliances can create enemies in international relations and provoke foreign political interference, attempts at regime change, or invasion. One defense is a policy of neutrality.
• Ongoing armed conflict^[41]
• International sanctions^[42][43]
• Economic inequality
• Economic depression or recession^[44] possibly caused by a financial crisis, economic mismanagement, or in especially in pre-industrial times, overpopulation^[41]
• Centrally planned economy
• Authoritarianism,^[45] ideocracy, or absolute monarchy. A cult of personality can run the risk of failing to solve real-world problems if the leader ignores or denies them. Lack of checks and balances can result in a leader governing for self-interest rather than national interest. Putting a single strong person in charge without a mechanism for removal can have devastating results if that person is insane,.^[46] cruel, psychopathic, incompetent, or misguided. A weak central leader can be vulnerable to coup or manipulation by other interests.
• Democratic backsliding^[47][48] (e.g. the gradual and lawful termination of democracy in Weimar Germany and the creation of Nazi Germany). Resistance to backsliding can take the form of a strong civil society and the practice of speaking truth to power.
• Excessive government debt or refusal to repay, leading to a debt crisis. In After the Empire, Emmanuel Todd describes the United States as "a superpower running on empty" due to its heavy indebtedness.
• Revolutionary wave (e.g. Revolutions of 1989,^[49] colour revolutions, Arab Spring, Decolonisation of Africa, Revolutions of 1917–1923, Latin American wars of independence)
• Epidemic or pandemic (e.g. Black Death, COVID-19)^[50]
• Weak military that could allow a successful invasion
• Disgruntled, low-paid, or disloyal military that is unlikely to resist the temptation of a coup d'etat
• In democratic regimes, lack of strong democratic traditions and support for peaceful transfer of power and civilian control of the military
• Low per capita gross domestic product or wealth, such that a crisis could be catastrophic because resources are not available to deal with it
• Natural hazards (hurricanes, earthquake, volcanoes, tsunamis) and conditions (limited water supply, island nation, degraded local ecosystem, lack of domestic energy resources)
• Widespread government corruption or other factors that undermine legitimacy
• Instability of a neighbor, ally, or economic trading partner (e.g. the Special Period in Cuba, Ireland after Brexit and the sea border with Northern Ireland)

In popular culture[]

There are many semi-fictional books and films, which dramatically demonstrate the turbulent effects of collapse upon innocent or naive individuals. Bernardo Bertolucci's film, The Last Emperor, showed the collapse of both Imperial China and Manchukuo, as well as the post-collapse trial and rehabilitation of Pu Yi. Bruno Ganz played Hitler in Downfall, which depicts the final days of Germany's Third Reich. Events from the period, as seen by prisoners at Auschwitz, are shown in Primo Levi's memoir, If This Is a Man, and in the graphic novels Maus and Maus II. Kurt Vonnegut witnessed the bombing of Dresden and fictionalized the experience in Slaughterhouse-Five. Scum of the Earth (book) is a memoir by Arthur Koestler of the collapse of France in 1940.

Robert K. Massie's book about the last Russian tsar, Nicholas and Alexandra, was also filmed. Doctor Zhivago and And Quiet Flows the Don (filmed as War and Revolution) relate stories of families caught up in the collapse of The Russian Empire. The House of the Mosque and Persepolis depict the collapse of Iran.

The Left Behind series of novels by Tim LaHaye and Jerry B. Jenkins features the supposed role of Israel in the apocalyptic End Times. In the spy novel, The Mask of Dimitrios (1939), Eric Ambler comments: "In a dying civilization, political prestige goes not to the man with the shrewdest diagnosis, but to the one with the best bedside manner."

See also[]

Further reading[]

• The Anatomy of Revolution
• Idiocracy (fictional movie set in the future)
• Power Politics (Wight book)
• The Mind of Adolf Hitler
• The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers
• The Tragedy of Great Power Politics
• The True Believer

References[]

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