Stormy Marmot

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Stormy Marmot is a yellow-bellied marmot of the Rocky Mountain region, living in Aurora, Colorado. Every February 2, on Groundhog Day, Stormy makes a prediction for the remainder of winter.

History[]

Stormy is a yellow-bellied marmot, a member of the squirrel family.[1] He is one of the few famous groundhogs west of the Mississippi.[2] Stormy is trotted out once a year to check for his shadow and make a weather prediction.[3][4]

Concrete Driveway in Colorado claims to rely on Stormy's forecasts to prepare their fleet.[5]

Punxsutawney Phil loyalists have been known to disparage Stormy.[6]

also represents Groundhog Day prognostication in Colorado. He makes his home at Chautauqua Park in Boulder, CO.[7][8]

Past predictions[]

Year Prediction
2022 Early spring[9][10]
2021 6 more weeks of winter[11]
2020 6 more weeks of winter[12]
2019 6 more weeks of winter[13][14]
2018 Early spring[15]
2017 Early spring[16][17][18]
2016 Early spring[19][20]
2015 Early spring[21][22]
2014 6 more weeks of winter[23][24]
2013 6 more weeks of winter[25][26][27][3]
2012 Early spring[28][29]
2011 6 more weeks of winter[30][31][32]
2010 6 more weeks of winter[33]
2008 6 more weeks of winter[34]
2006 Early spring[35]

Accuracy[]

Statistical analysis of groundhog predictions show that Stormy Marmot and Poor Richard (a groundhog based in York, Pennsylvania) have the best correlation to observed weather trends. "When Stormy Marmot predicts an early spring, we can expect March to be on average 6 °F warmer, and April to be 2.5 °F warmer. When Poor Richard predicts an early spring, we can expect February to be 4 °F warmer and March to be 8 °F warmer."[36] Dover Doug, a groundhog from Dover, Pennsylvania, was also noted for having a strong correlation between the sign of his shadow and the arrival of spring conditions.[37]

According to analysis by FiveThirtyEight, Stormy has a 70% prediction accuracy in his own region, tied by General Beauregard Lee for the southeast and beaten only by Snohomish Slew, a bullfrog in the northwest, who has an 80% accuracy. Punxsutawney Phil only scored 50% for his region, the northeast.[38]

Background[]

Punxsutawney Phil has been making predictions since the 1880s. However, this method of prognostication did not gain mass notoriety until the release of the 1993 comedy Groundhog Day (film) with Bill Murray and Andie MacDowell. The movie became the 13th highest grossing of the year, with over $70 million at the box office.[39] Over time, the movie became a cult classic and significantly increased awareness and attendance at Groundhog Day events.[40]

See also[]

References[]

  1. ^ "Wild(life) Weather", Curiosity Seldom Pays, Oct 9, 2014
  2. ^ "Move over, Phil: Here are 10 other groundhogs that weigh in on the forecast", Fox Weather, Feb 1, 2022
  3. ^ a b "Your rodent rear is mine, Phil!", Aurora Magazine, Feb 6, 2013
  4. ^ "Groundhog’s Day: Colorado Movers Style", Exodus Moving & Storage, Feb 1, 2012
  5. ^ "Concrete Driveway"
  6. ^ "Groundhog Day story repeats itself", The Denver Post, Feb 1, 2014
  7. ^ "Happy Groundhog Day, Colorado-Style", The Denver Post, Feb 2, 2013
  8. ^ "Groundhogs in Colorado"
  9. ^ "Rodent Roundup: Why we look to groundhogs for winter outlooks" Grace Lowe and Olivia Lawrence, February 2, 2022
  10. ^ "Groundhog Day 2022 Predictions"
  11. ^ "Groundhog Day 2021 Predictions"
  12. ^ "Groundhogs Around the World: Stormy Marmot"
  13. ^ "Countdown to Groundhog Day", February 2, 2019
  14. ^ "2019 Groundhog Day Predictions", February 2, 2019
  15. ^ "Countdown to Groundhog Day", February 2, 2019
  16. ^ "Did The Groundhog See His Shadow Today", May 17, 2017
  17. ^ "Colorado’s Groundhog Looks to Predict an Early Spring", KTRR Tri 102.5 FM Loveland, Feb 1, 2017
  18. ^ "How Accurate are Groundhog Day Predictions? (2018 Update)", Jeremy Neiman, Jan 31, 2018
  19. ^ "The Groundhog Saw His Shadow, but Will He be Right?", KORD FM 102.7 Richland, Feb 2, 2016
  20. ^ "It’s Groundhog Day!!", Hoosier-Doughty, Feb 2, 2016
  21. ^ "The Eternal Life Disaster", Nathan Gast, Feb 3, 2015
  22. ^ "Happy Groundhog Day 2015", Mrs. Glock's Class, Feb 2, 2015
  23. ^ "Happy Groundhog Day!!!", Mrs. Glock's Class, Feb 4, 2014
  24. ^ "Are You Letting a Groundhog Dictate Strategy?", Brooks Bell Group, Feb 6, 2014
  25. ^ "Happy Groundhog Day, Colorado-Style", The Denver Post, Feb 2, 2013
  26. ^ "Groundhog Day - Feb. 2 - Early Spring or 6 More Weeks of Winter????", Talk Graphics, Feb 2, 2014
  27. ^ "The largest Groundhog Day celebration is held in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania", Julie Roberts, Feb 2, 2013
  28. ^ "The largest Groundhog Day celebration is held in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania", Julie Roberts, Feb 2, 2013
  29. ^ "Michigan’s Official Groundhog Predicts An Early Spring", WWJ CBS 62 Detroit, Feb 2, 2012
  30. ^ "The largest Groundhog Day celebration is held in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania", Julie Roberts, Feb 2, 2013
  31. ^ "Happy Groundhog Day!", Steve Mandich Blog, Feb 2, 2011
  32. ^ "Predicting the weather is tricky business", Crossville Chronicle, Feb 3, 2011
  33. ^ "The largest Groundhog Day celebration is held in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania", Julie Roberts, Feb 2, 2013
  34. ^ "Groundhogs Around the World: Stormy Marmot"
  35. ^ "Groundhogs Around the World: Stormy Marmot"
  36. ^ "How Accurate are Groundhog Day Predictions?", Jeremy Neiman, Jan 27, 2017
  37. ^ "How Accurate are Groundhog Day Predictions? (2018 Update)", Jeremy Neiman, Jan 31, 2018
  38. ^ " Groundhogs Do Not Make Good Meteorologists, FiveThirtyEight, Feb 1, 2022
  39. ^ "1993 Worldwide Grosses". Box Office Mojo. Retrieved February 2, 2019.
  40. ^ Carlson, Peter (February 3, 2004). "His Moment In the Sun". The Washington Post. 23.


External links[]


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