Trafalgar Group

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Trafalgar Group
TypePrivate
IndustryOpinion polls
FounderRobert Cahaly
Headquarters
Atlanta, Georgia
,
United States
Websitewww.thetrafalgargroup.org

The Trafalgar Group is an opinion polling and survey company founded by Robert Cahaly and based in Atlanta, Georgia. It first publicly released polls in 2016, and it successfully predicted the result of the 2016 presidential election. Trafalgar Group incorrectly predicted the 2020 presidential election results, but was rated the second most accurate pollster on the election by FiveThirtyEight.[1][2][3]

Method[]

Trafalgar Group adjusts its polls for a "social desirability bias" effect, the hypothesized tendency of some voters to calibrate their responses to polls towards what they believe the survey taker would like to hear.[4][5][6] It does this by not only asking respondents how they plan to vote, but also how they think their neighbors might vote.[6] Former Democratic Party strategist , in New York Magazine in July 2020, criticized Trafalgar's approach, writing, "The Shy Trump Voter may not be entirely a myth, but they're not numerous enough to fill a Trump rally, much less change an election result or rebut a poll."[7] Responding to criticism of Trafalgar's polling methods and its lack of transparency about its methods, Cahaly said in November 2020, "I think we’ve developed something that’s very different from what other people do, and I really am not interested in telling people how we do it. Just judge us by whether we get it right."[8]

In presidential polling, Trafalgar Group only conducts state-level polls; according to Cahaly, "we don't do national polls, and that's for the same reason I don't keep up with hits in a baseball game: It's an irrelevant statistic".[9]

Before the 2020 election, FiveThirtyEight gave Trafalgar a grade of C-. As of April 2021, FiveThirtyEight gave Trafalgar a grade of A-.[3]

According to The New York Times, there is almost no explanation of the Trafalgar Group's methodology: "the methods page on Trafalgar's website contains what reads like a vague advertisement of its services and explains that its polls actively confront social desirability bias, without giving specifics as to how."[1]

Accuracy and performance[]

2016 U.S. presidential election[]

During the 2016 United States presidential election, Trafalgar Group was the only polling firm showing Donald Trump winning the state of Michigan, which he ultimately did, and – according to RealClearPolitics – "nearly the only" one correctly predicting Trump's win in Pennsylvania.[10] According to the New York Times, Trafalgar correctly predicted the number of electoral votes each candidate would receive, but not which states would provide those votes.[1]

2018 U.S. midterm elections[]

Trafalgar was an outlier in polling in the 2018 Georgia gubernatorial election, with its final poll showing Brian Kemp leading by 12 points, a race he ultimately won by less than two points; every other poll showed a one or two point difference in the race.[11]

2020 U.S. presidential election[]

Before the 2020 United States presidential election, Trafalgar Group said that Trump would win the election easily, estimating that he would win Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.[12] Joe Biden won the election with 306 electoral votes and succeeded in winning Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.[13] According to FiveThirtyEight, Trafalgar was the second most accurate pollster in terms of the margins compared to the final results.[14]

2021 Georgia Senate runoff elections[]

Leading up to the 2021 runoff elections Trafalgar Group showed both incumbents Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue initially ahead of Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff yet by December they were both trailing a few points behind.[15] On January 5th, 2021, the day before the 2 Georgia Senate runoff elections, Trafalgar predicted that Ossoff was leading by 0.9 points over Perdue and that incumbent Loeffler was leading 1.3 points over Raphael Warnock.[16] Ossoff won by a margin of 1.2 and Loeffler lost by a margin of 2.1 percent.

See also[]

References[]

  1. ^ a b c Russonello, Giovanni; Lyall, Sarah (2020-11-02). "The One Pollster in America Who Is Sure Trump Is Going to Win". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2020-11-03.
  2. ^ Russonello, Giovanni; Lyall, Sarah (4 November 2020). "The One Pollster in America Who Is Sure Trump Is Going to Win". The New York Times. Retrieved 5 November 2020.
  3. ^ a b "FiveThirtyEight's Pollster Ratings". FiveThirtyEight. May 19, 2020. Retrieved October 24, 2020.
  4. ^ Easley, Jonathan (June 27, 2020). "Where things stand in 13 battleground states". The Hill. Retrieved August 15, 2020.
  5. ^ Enderle, Rob (November 11, 2016). "How Trump defeated Clinton using analytics". CIO Magazine. Retrieved August 15, 2020.
  6. ^ a b Russonello, Giovanni (November 25, 2019). "Four Problems With 2016 Trump Polling That Could Play Out Again in 2020". New York Times. Retrieved August 15, 2020.
  7. ^ Kilgore, Ed (July 29, 2020). "There's Still No Evidence Trump Voters Are Particularly 'Shy'". New York. Retrieved August 15, 2020.
  8. ^ New York Times https://www.nytimes.com/article/trafalgar-group-poll.html. Missing or empty |title= (help)
  9. ^ Stanton, Zach (November 4, 2020). "'People Are Going To Be Shocked': Return of the 'Shy' Trump Voter?". Politico. Retrieved November 4, 2020.
  10. ^ Bevan, Tom (June 22, 2020). "Pollster Who Got It Right in 2016: Michigan a Dead Heat". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved August 15, 2020.
  11. ^ Geragahty, Jim (September 8, 2020). "The Polls Aren't Always Wrong". National Review. Retrieved November 5, 2020.
  12. ^ Russonello, Giovanni; Lyall, Sarah (4 November 2020). "The One Pollster in America Who Is Sure Trump Is Going to Win". The New York Times. Retrieved 5 November 2020.
  13. ^ New York Times https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-president.html. Missing or empty |title= (help)
  14. ^ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-death-of-polling-is-greatly-exaggerated/
  15. ^ FiveThirtyEight (January 5, 2021). "Latest Polls Of The Georgia Senate Runoffs". FiveThirtyEight.
  16. ^ Tralfagar Group (January 5, 2021). "Georgia Senate Runoff January 5 Poll". Tralfagar Group.

External links[]

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