2018 Maine gubernatorial election

2018 Maine gubernatorial election

← 2014 November 6, 2018 (2018-11-06) 2022 →

Nominee Janet Mills Shawn Moody Terry Hayes Party Democratic Republican Independent Popular vote 320,962 272,311 37,268 Percentage 50.9% 43.2% 5.9%

County results Mills:      40-50%      50–60%      60–70% Moody:      40–50%      50–60%

Governor before election Paul LePage Republican Elected Governor Janet Mills Democratic

Elections in Maine
Federal offices U.S. President 1824 1828 1832 1836 1840 1844 1848 1852 1856 1860 1864 1868 1872 1876 1880 1884 1888 1892 1896 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 Dem 2008 Dem Rep 2012 Rep 2016 Dem Rep 2020 Dem Rep U.S. Senate 1820 1821 1823 1823 1827 1829 sp 1835 1835 sp 1837 sp 1839 1840 1843 sp 1846 1848 sp 1851 1854 sp 1857 1857 sp 1859 1861 sp 1863 1865 sp 1869 1870 sp 1875 1877 1877 sp 1880 1881 1881 sp 1883 1887 1889 1893 1895 1899 1901 1905 1907 1911 1912 sp 1913 1916 1916 sp 1918 1922 1924 1926 sp 1928 1930 1934 1936 1940 1942 1946 1948 1952 1954 1958 1960 1964 1966 1970 1972 1976 1978 1982 1984 1988 1990 1994 1996 2000 2002 2006 2008 2012 2014 2018 2020 U.S. House of Representatives 1820–1821 1822 sp 2nd 1823 1824–1825 1826–1827 1826 sp 5th 1827 sp 1st 1828–1830 1830 1833 1834 1836 1838 1840 1843 1844 1846 1848 1850 1852 1854 1856 1858 1860 1860 sp 5th 1862 1864 1866 1868 1870 1872 1874 1876 1878 1880 1881 sp 2nd 1882 1884 1886 1888 1890 1892 1894 1896 1897 sp 3rd 1898 1899 sp 1st 1899 sp 2nd 1900 1901 sp 4th 1902 1904 1906 1908 1908 sp 2nd 1908 sp 4th 1910 1912 1913 sp 3rd 1914 1916 1918 1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1940 sp 2nd 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1951 sp 3rd 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
State government Gubernatorial elections 1820 1821 1822 1823 1824 1825 1826 1827 1828 1829 1830 1831 1832 1833 1834 1835 1836 1837 1838 ... 1848 ... 1876 1877 1879 1880 1896 1898 1900 1902 1904 1906 1908 1910 1912 1914 1916 1918 1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 State Senate elections 2018 2020 State House elections 2018 2020
Ballot measures People's vetoes 2009 Question 1 2011 Question 1 2018 Question 1 (Jun) 2020 Question 1 Citizen initiated referendums 2012 Question 1 2014 Question 1 2015 Question 1 2016 Question 1 Question 2 Question 3 Question 4 Question 5 2017 Question 1 Question 2 2018 Question 1 (Nov) 2021 Constitutional amendments 2021
City of Portland Mayoral elections 2011 2015 2019
v t

The 2018 Maine gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next Governor of Maine. It occurred along with elections for the U.S. Senate, U.S. House, and other state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Governor Paul LePage was term limited and could not seek reelection to a third consecutive term in office although he later announced his campaign for a third term in the 2022 election.^[1][2]

The primaries for this election were the first in Maine to be conducted with ranked choice voting (RCV), as opposed to a simple plurality, after voters passed a citizen referendum approving the change in 2016.^[3] An advisory opinion by the Maine Supreme Judicial Court held that RCV would be unconstitutional for general elections for governor and the state legislature. This led state legislators to vote to delay its implementation pending approval of a state constitutional amendment.^[4][5] Backers of a "people's veto" turned in enough signatures to suspend this law until a June referendum vote, which restored RCV for future primary and congressional elections.^[6]

Governor Paul LePage threatened not to certify the results of the primary elections, saying he would "leave it up to the courts to decide."^[7] He also called the use of ranked-choice voting the "most horrific thing in the world."^[8] Secretary of State Matthew Dunlap said the results would be binding regardless of whether LePage certified them.^[9]

The Republican nominee was businessman and 2010 independent candidate for governor Shawn Moody. The Democratic candidate was Attorney General Janet Mills. State Treasurer Terry Hayes and businessman Alan Caron had qualified for the ballot as independents, though Caron dropped out on October 29 and endorsed Mills. Former state senator and former mayor of Lewiston and Auburn John Jenkins and perennial candidate Kenneth Capron ran write-in campaigns.

Mills defeated Moody and Hayes with a majority to become the first female Governor of Maine. She also became the first gubernatorial candidate to win at least 50% of the vote since Angus King in 1998, and the first non-incumbent to do so since Kenneth M. Curtis in 1966. Mills also became the first Maine gubernatorial candidate to earn 300,000 votes and received more votes for governor than any other candidate in state history.

Background[]

Incumbent Republican Paul LePage was term-limited, having been elected twice consecutively in 2010 and 2014. LePage did not win a majority of the vote either time (receiving 37.6% in a crowded four-way race in 2010 and 48.2% in a three-way race in 2014), with Democrats accusing independent candidate Eliot Cutler of splitting the anti-LePage vote in both instances, though Cutler finished closer to LePage than Democratic candidate Libby Mitchell in the 2010 election.^[10]

Maine's history of governors elected without majorities, including LePage, was one impetus for the citizen's referendum to implement ranked choice voting.^[11][12] Indeed, the last time a gubernatorial candidate received a majority of the vote was in 1998, when incumbent Governor (and current United States Senator) Angus King, an independent, won reelection with 58.6% of the vote. The last time a non-incumbent candidate received more than 50% of the vote was the 1966 gubernatorial election, which Democrat Kenneth M. Curtis won over incumbent Republican John H. Reed with 53.1% of the vote.

Though ranked-choice voting was approved by voters in a 2016 referendum, the Maine Legislature voted to delay and potentially repeal RCV for all elections after an advisory opinion by the Maine Supreme Judicial Court ruled it unconstitutional for general elections for state offices. RCV supporters succeeded in a people's veto effort to prevent the delay, which suspends it until a June 2018 referendum vote.^[13] RCV supporters were victorious in the June referendum, and ranked-choice voting will remain in place for state and federal primaries and federal general elections.^[14]

Republican primary[]

Speculation that U.S. Senator Susan Collins was considering running for governor arose during the 2015 Maine Legislative session when Representative Matt Moonen (D-Portland) introduced a bill to strip the governor (LePage at the time) of the power to appoint replacement U.S. Senators in the event of a vacancy and to instead have a special primary and general election. Moonen denied that he was motivated by Collins's possible candidacy, saying he was interested only in counterbalancing Republican-sponsored bills to change how the Maine Attorney General and Maine Secretary of State are chosen. Moonen said Collins had told him speculation about her running for governor was "silly."^[15] Collins, who was the 1994 Republican nominee for Governor, told MPBN News on January 4, 2016 that though she was "baffled" by the rumors about her being interested in running for governor, many had encouraged her to run, and she would not rule it out.^[16] In October 2017, Collins said she would not run for governor in 2018.^[17]

No Republican candidate ruled out challenging the results of a ranked-choice primary in court. Mary Mayhew called for the immediate repeal of RCV, calling it a "scam" and "probably illegal".^[18]

The Maine Republican Party filed a federal lawsuit in U.S. District Court in Bangor on May 4, 2018, seeking to bar the use of RCV for its own primary on the grounds that requiring the party to use it violates its First Amendment rights to choose its nominee as it sees fit.^[19] U.S. District Court Judge Jon Levy rejected the suit on May 29.^[20]

Candidates[]

Nominated[]

• Shawn Moody, businessman and independent candidate for governor in 2010^[21]

Eliminated in primary[]

• Ken Fredette, State House Minority Leader^[22]
• Garrett Mason, State Senate Majority Leader^[23]
• Mary Mayhew, former commissioner of the Maine Department of Health and Human Services^[24]

Withdrawn[]

• Deril Stubenrod, write-in candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014^[25]
• Mike Thibodeau, Maine Senate President^[26]

Declined[]

• Rick Bennett, former chairman of the Maine Republican Party, former President of the Maine Senate, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012 and nominee for ME-02 in 1994^[27]
• Susan Collins, U.S. Senator and nominee for governor in 1994^[28][29]
• Nick Isgro, Mayor of Waterville^[30]
• Bruce Poliquin, U.S. Representative (ran for reelection)^[31]
• Peter Vigue, businessman^[32]

Endorsements[]

Polling[]

Results[]

Results by county

Map legend

•   Moody—60–70%
•   Moody—50–60%
•   Moody—40–50%
•   Moody—30–40%

Democratic primary[]

Campaign signs for Democratic candidates for Governor Betsy Sweet, Mark Eves and Adam Cote at the 2018 Maine Democratic convention at the Androscoggin Bank Colisée in Lewiston.

Almost all Democratic candidates said that they would abide by the results of the ranked-choice primary, with only Janet Mills refusing to comment on the issue because it was being heard by the courts.^[18]

Candidates[]

Nominated[]

• Janet Mills, Maine Attorney General^[43]

Eliminated in primary[]

• Adam Cote, attorney, Iraq War veteran and candidate for ME-01 in 2008^[44]
• Donna Dion, former mayor of Biddeford^[45]
• Mark Dion, state senator and former Cumberland County Sheriff^[46]
• Mark Eves, former Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives^[47]
• Diane Russell, former state representative^[48]
• Betsy Sweet, former director of the Maine Women's Lobby^[49]

Failed to make ballot[]

• Dominic A. Crocitto^[50]
• Steve DeAngelis, schoolteacher^[51]
• J. Martin Vachon^[52]

Withdrawn[]

• James Boyle, former state senator^[53]
• Patrick Eisenhart, retired United States Coast Guard Commander^[54]
• Sean Faircloth, former mayor of Bangor and former state senator^[55]
• Kenneth Forrest Pinet^[56]

Declined[]

• Justin Alfond, former state senator and former President of the Maine Senate^[57][32][58]
• Yellow Light Breen, CEO of the Maine Development Foundation^[32]
• Adam Goode, former state representative^[32]
• Troy Jackson, State Senate Minority Leader^[32]
• Stephen King, author^[59][60]
• Chellie Pingree, U.S. Representative^[61]
• Hannah Pingree, former Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives^[32]
• Lucas St. Clair, nonprofit executive (ran for ME-02)^[62]

Endorsements[]

All endorsers are Democrats unless otherwise specified

Polling[]

Results[]

Results by county

Map legend

•   Mills—60–70%
•   Mills—50–60%
•   Mills—40–50%
•   Mills—30–40%
•   Mills—20–30%
•   Cote—30–40%

Green Independent primary[]

Candidates[]

Withdrawn[]

• Jay Parker Dresser, candidate for ME-02 in 2016^[43][100]
• Betsy Marsano, activist^[101][102]

Libertarian primary[]

Candidates[]

Withdrawn[]

• Richard Light^[44][103]
• Gilbert P. Doughty^[104]

Independents[]

Candidates[]

Declared[]

• Kenneth A. Capron, perennial candidate, systems analyst and fraud investigator^[105]^ (write-in candidate)
• Terry Hayes, Maine State Treasurer^[54]
• John Jenkins, former mayor of Lewiston, former mayor of Auburn and former Democratic state senator^[106][107]^ (write-in candidate)

^{^} Capron and Jenkins failed to qualify for the ballot, but continued their campaigns as write-in candidates

Withdrawn[]

• Ethan Alcorn, businessman (did not qualify)^[108]
• Alan Caron, president and CEO of Envision Maine (endorsed Mills)^[109]
• Aaron D. Chadbourne, writer and activist^[110] (write-in candidate, endorsed Moody)^[111]

Failed to make ballot[]

• Karmo Sanders, actress^[112]

Declined[]

• Eliot Cutler, attorney and candidate for governor in 2010 and 2014^[113]
• Angus King, U.S. Senator and former governor (running for re-election)^[114]
• Peter Vigue, businessman^[115][32]
• Dick Woodbury, former state senator^[32]

General election[]

After the primaries, most prediction models had the race as a tossup, noting Paul LePage's two victories and Hillary Clinton's narrow margin of victory in the state in the 2016 presidential election. Others considered it to be a pick-up opportunity for the Democrats.^[116] Both Moody and Mills received the backing of outside money, with one PAC spending in excess of $1 million on television advertising in the state to support Mills's candidacy.^[117]

On October 12, Jonathan Martin of The New York Times published an article detailing a sex discrimination complaint filed against Moody and his business in 2006, which Moody settled for $20,000, resulting in the complaint being withdrawn. The complaint alleged that Moody went to the residence of a female employee and fired her for having a child just days after delivering the child via an emergency caesarean section.^[118] Moody denied the allegation through a spokesperson and later on Twitter.^[119]

Though the first poll of the race saw Mills and Moody tied for first place with Hayes and Caron lagging behind, by the end of October, four different polls were released, each showing Mills with an eight-point lead over Moody. FiveThirtyEight declared the race "Likely D" when its gubernatorial projections were released in October, though other prediction models maintained the race as a tossup.

On October 29, in a press conference at the main branch of the Portland Public Library, Caron dropped out of the race and endorsed Mills. His name remained on the ballot, but any votes cast for him were regarded as blank.^[120]

Shortly before 10 PM on election night, Hayes conceded the race.^[121] At 12:15 AM on November 7, Moody conceded the race to Mills, and shortly thereafter Mills declared victory at Democratic headquarters in Portland.^[121] Mills became the first Maine gubernatorial candidate to receive more than 300,000 votes in a single election. Mills also became the first Maine gubernatorial candidate to win a majority of the vote since Angus King won nearly 59% of the vote in his re-election bid in 1998, and became the first candidate to win a majority of the popular vote for a first term since Kenneth M. Curtis defeated incumbent governor John H. Reed in 1966, though Curtis and Reed were the only candidates in that race.

The general election used plurality voting, not ranked-choice voting.

Predictions[]

Endorsements[]

• Endorsements in bold were made after the primaries on June 12, 2018

Debates[]

Polling[]

Results[]

Results by county[]

See also[]

• 2018 United States gubernatorial elections

References[]