2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Maine

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2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Maine

← 2016 November 6, 2018 (2018-11-06) 2020 →

All 2 Maine seats to the United States House of Representatives
  Majority party Minority party
 
Party Democratic Republican
Last election 1 1
Seats won 2 0
Seat change Increase1 Decrease1
Popular vote 343,635 250,119
Percentage 55.12% 40.12%
Swing Increase3.19% Decrease7.89%

United States House of Representatives elections in Maine, 2018 results by district.svg

The 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Maine were held on November 6, 2018, to elect the two U.S. Representatives from the state of Maine, one from each of the state's two congressional districts. The elections coincided with the elections of other offices, including a gubernatorial election, other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections.

These U.S. House elections were conducted with ranked-choice voting, as opposed to a simple plurality, after Maine voters passed a citizen referendum approving the change in 2016[1] and a June 2018 referendum sustaining the change.[2] Ranked-choice voting was used in the primary elections as well.[3]

While Rep. Chellie Pingree in District 1 was reelected with a majority, no candidate received a majority in District 2, which meant that the ranked-choice tabulation needed to occur. Rep. Bruce Poliquin, who received a plurality of first-round votes, filed a federal lawsuit to halt that tabulation, arguing that ranked-choice voting was unconstitutional. The court ruled against Poliquin in his request for a motion on November 15 and against the lawsuit itself on December 13. On November 15, Jared Golden was declared the winner after the ranked-choice redistribution, becoming the first member of Congress to be elected via ranked-choice voting.

Overview[]

Results of the 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Maine by district:[4]

District Democratic Republican Others Total Result
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
District 1 201,195 58.82% 111,188 32.51% 29,670 8.67% 342,053 100.0% Democratic Hold
District 2 142,440 50.62% 138,931 49.38% 0 0.00% 281,371 100.0% Democratic Gain
Total 343,635 55.12% 250,119 40.12% 29,670 4.76% 623,424 100.0%

District 1[]

2018 Maine's 1st congressional district election

← 2016
2020 →
  Chellie Pingree official photo.jpg 3x4.svg 3x4.svg
Nominee Chellie Pingree Mark Holbrook Marty Grohman
Party Democratic Republican Independent
Popular vote 201,195 111,188 29,670
Percentage 58.8% 32.5% 8.7%

U.S. Representative before election

Chellie Pingree
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

Chellie Pingree
Democratic

Chellie Pingree, the incumbent representative, was first elected in 2008, and in 2016 defeated Republican nominee Mark Holbrook with just under 58 percent of the vote. Holbrook ran again for the Republican nomination, and was unopposed. Independent State Representative Marty Grohman, elected as a Democrat in the 2016 State House election, defected from the party in 2017. He launched his campaign for the first district in spring 2018.

Due to the use of ranked-choice voting in the election, Pingree was considered to be vulnerable if she did not win outright in the first round, as Grohman could have been a second choice for Republican and Democratic voters.[5] Grohman was receiving substantial support from Republican elected officials and activists, including Republican Governor Paul LePage[6] and the State Director of President Donald Trump's 2016 presidential campaign Christie-Lee McNally.[7]

Democratic primary[]

Declared[]

  • Chellie Pingree, incumbent U.S. representative[8]

Results[]

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Chellie Pingree (incumbent) 74,376 100.0
Total votes 74,376 100.0

Republican primary[]

Declared[]

  • Mark Holbrook, professional counselor and 2016 nominee for this seat[9]

Results[]

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mark Holbrook 40,679 100.0
Total votes 40,679 100.0

Independents[]

Declared[]

  • Marty Grohman, state representative[9]

Endorsements[]

Chellie Pingree
Local and statewide politicians
Organizations
Trade Unions
Media
Mark Holbrook
Individuals
Organizations
  • Christian Civic League of Maine[18]
  • Gun Owners of Maine[18]
  • National Right to Life Committee[18]
  • National Rifle Association[18]
Marty Grohman
Local and statewide politicians
  • Linda Baker, former state senator (R-Topsham)[7]
  • Kerri Bickford, former state representative (R-Topsham)[7]
  • Joe Bruno, former state representative and former House Minority Leader (R-Raymond)[7]
  • Pamela Cahill, former state representative, former state senator, former Senate Minority Leader, (R-Woolwich) Republican candidate for Governor of Maine in 1994 former chair of the Maine Republican Party[7]
  • Alan Casavant, Mayor of Biddeford, former state representative (Democrat)[19]
  • Mark Ellis, former chair of the Maine Republican Party[7]
  • Karen Gerrish, state representative (R-Lebanon)[7]
  • Jon Kinney, state representative (R-Limington)[7]
  • Brian Langley, state senator (R-Ellsworth)[7]
  • Paul LePage, incumbent governor of Maine (Republican)[6]
  • Don Marean, state representative (R-Hollis)[7]
  • Les Otten, Republican candidate for Governor of Maine in 2010[7]
  • Tony Payne, former Maine Republican Party Executive Director[7]
  • David Rollins, Mayor of Augusta (Democrat)[19]
  • Tom Saviello, state senator (R-Farmington)[7]
  • Mary Small, former state representative, former state senator, former Senate Minority Leader (R-Bath)[7]
  • Ande Smith, Republican candidate for this seat in 2016[7]
  • Meredith Strang Burgess, former state representative (R-Cumberland)[7]
  • Karen Vachon, state representative (R-Scarborough)[7]
  • Amy Volk, state senator, Majority Whip (R-Scarborough)[19]
  • Nathan Wadsworth, state representative (R-Hiram)[7]
  • Karl Ward, state representative (R-Dedham)[7]
  • Mark Walker, Mayor of Hallowell (Republican)[7]
  • David Woodsome, state senator (R-Waterboro)[7]
Other individuals
  • Ben Gilman, John McCain presidential campaign, 2008 Maine state director, former staffer for Olympia Snowe[7]
  • Christie-Lee McNally, Donald Trump presidential campaign, 2016 Maine state director[7]
  • Ray Richardson, right-wing talk radio host[7]
Organizations
  • Sportsman's Alliance of Maine[20]
  • Unite America[21]
  • US Chamber of Commerce[22]

General election[]

Polling[]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Chellie
Pingree (D)
Mark
Holbrook (R)
Marty
Grohman (I)
Other Undecided
Emerson College October 27–29, 2018 442 ± 4.9% 56% 31% 7% 6%
Pan Atlantic Research October 1–7, 2018 249 53% 29% 11% 7%

Results[]

Maine's 1st congressional district, 2018[23]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Chellie Pingree (incumbent) 201,195 58.8
Republican Mark Holbrook 111,188 32.5
Independent Marty Grohman 29,670 8.7
Total votes 342,053 100.0
Democratic hold

District 2[]

2018 Maine's 2nd congressional district election

← 2016
2020 →
  Rep. Jared Golden, official portrait, 116th congress (cropped).jpg Bruce Poliquin congress.jpg
Nominee Jared Golden Bruce Poliquin
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 142,440 138,931
Percentage 50.6% 49.4%

U.S. Representative before election

Bruce Poliquin
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Jared Golden
Democratic

Bruce Poliquin, the incumbent representative for the second district, defeated Democrat Emily Cain in the 2016 election in a rematch of the 2014 election where Poliquin was first elected. Poliquin ran for the Republican nomination unopposed. Cain did not challenge Poliquin again, instead taking a job with the progressive group Emily's List. Initially, six candidates filed for the Democratic nomination — United States Postal Service employee and activist Phil Cleaves, carpenter and former Maine State Senate candidate Jonathan Fulford, Assistant Majority Leader of the State House of Representatives Jared Golden, shopkeeper and former chair of the Isleboro Board of Selectmen Craig Olson, businessman and former State Senate candidate Tim Rich, and conservationist Lucas St. Clair. Cleaves, Rich and Fulford dropped out at various points in the campaign, though Fulford's withdrawal happened too late for his name to be removed from the primary ballot. Several candidates received prominent endorsements; St. Clair was endorsed by the League of Conservation Voters and California Congressman Jared Huffman, Fulford by the left-wing group Our Revolution prior to his withdrawal from the race, and Golden by VoteVets, Massachusetts Congressman Seth Moulton and over two dozen members of the Maine Legislature. Golden defeated St. Clair and Olson in the second round of the ranked-choice vote tabulation.

In addition, two third-party candidates announced their candidacies for the seat: Houlton Band of Maliseets State Representative Henry John Bear of the Maine Green Independent Party and Brian Kresge of the Libertarian Party. Bear, a former Democrat, left the party due to its stance on water rights for Maine's native people. He failed to qualify for the ballot. Kresge, a veteran and writer, withdrew from the race to run for a seat in the State House of Representatives. Neither the Libertarians nor Green Independents had a candidate on the ballot.

Two independent candidates qualified for the ballot: Tiffany Bond, an attorney from Portland (a city outside of the second district), and Will Hoar, a schoolteacher.

Democratic primary[]

Candidates[]

Declared[]
  • Jared Golden, Assistant Majority Leader of the Maine House of Representatives[24][25]
  • Craig Olson, former chair of the Islesboro Board of Selectmen[26]
  • Lucas St. Clair, conservationist, restaurateur, and son of Roxanne Quimby[27]
Withdrawn[]
  • Phil Cleaves, United States Postal Service employee[28]
  • Jonathan Fulford, farmer, carpenter, and two-time Maine Senate candidate[29][30]
  • Tim Rich, businessman[31]
Declined[]
  • Troy Jackson, Minority Leader of the Maine Senate and candidate for this seat in 2014[32]
  • Ben Sprague, Bangor City Councilor[24][25]

Endorsements[]

Jonathan Fulford (withdrawn)
Individuals
  • Ben Chin, Democratic nominee for Mayor of Lewiston, 2015 and 2017[28]
Organizations
Jared Golden
State and local politicians
  • Robert Alley, State Representative[34]
  • Betty Austin, state representative[34]
  • Heidi Brooks, state representative[34]
  • Barbara Cardone, state representative[34]
  • Michael E. Carpenter, State Senator and former Maine Attorney General[34]
  • Robert Duchesne, state representative[34]
  • Michelle Dunphy, state representative[34]
  • Jessica L. Fay, state representative[34]
  • Aaron Frey, state representative[34]
  • Roger Fuller, state representative[34]
  • Sara Gideon, Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives[35]
  • Gay Grant, state representative[34]
  • James R. Handy, state representative[34]
  • Brian Hubbell, state representative[34]
  • Victoria Kornfield, state representative[34]
  • Walter Kumiega, state representative[34]
  • Nate Libby, state senator[34]
  • Louis Luchini, state representative[34]
  • Colleen Madigan, state representative[34]
  • John Madigan, state representative[34]
  • Danny Martin, state representative[34]
  • John L. Martin, state representative, former Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives[34]
  • David McCrea, state representative[34]
  • Gina Melaragno, state representative[34]
  • Catherine Nadeau, state representative[34]
  • Anne Perry, state representative[34]
  • Christina "Tina" Riley, state representative[34]
  • John Schneck, state representative[34]
  • Bettyann Sheats, state representative[34]
  • Stephen Stanley, state representative[34]
  • Ryan Tipping, state representative[34]
  • Stanley Paige Zeigler, state representative[34]
Other individuals
  • Amy Fried, political scientist[36]
  • Seth Moulton, U.S. Representative (D–MA)[37]
Local Democratic organizations
National organizations
Local and statewide organizations
  • Maine People's Alliance[41]
Trade Unions
  • BMDA, Local 3999, United Auto Workers[34]
  • IAM Local S7 Shipyard Communicator[34]
  • International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers[34]
  • International Association of Fire Fighters[34]
  • International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Local 2327[34]
  • Maine AFL-CIO[42]
  • Maine State Council of Machinists[34]
  • Maine Trial Lawyers Association[34]
  • National Nurses United[43]
  • Professional Firefighters of Maine[34]
  • United Steelworkers District 4[34]
Lucas St. Clair
Individuals
Organizations
  • League of Conservation Voters[46]
Newspapers

Polling[]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
RCV
round
Jonathan
Fulford
Jared
Golden
Craig
Olson
Lucas
St. Clair
Other Undecided
Survey USA (with RCV) April 26-May 1, 2018 217 LV ± 7.2% Round 1 17% 22% 5% 25% - 31%
Round 2 27% 35% - 38% -
Round 3 - 49% - 51% -
Global Strategy Group October 2–5, 2017 300 ± 5.7% N/A - 8% - 40% 7% 45%

Fundraising[]

(Through March 31, 2017)[48]

  • Jared Golden: $618,380.33
  • Lucas St. Clair: $424,958.42
  • Jonathan Fulford (withdrawn): $166,989.79
  • Craig Olson: $100,299.00
  • Tim Rich (withdrawn): $72,197.20
  • Emily Cain (not running): $24,692.88

Results[]

Democratic primary results[49]
Party Candidate Round 1 Round 3
Votes % Transfer Votes % (gross) % (net)
Democratic Jared Golden 20,987 46.4% +2,624 23,611 52.2% 54.3%
Democratic Lucas St. Clair 17,742 39.2% +2,111 19,853 43.9% 45.7%
Democratic Craig Olson 3,993 8.8% -3,993 Eliminated
Democratic Jonathan Fulford 2,489 5.5% -2,489 Eliminated
Total active votes 45,211 100% 43,464 100.0%
Exhausted ballots - +1,747 1,747 3.9%
Total votes 45,211 100% 45,211 100.0%

% (gross) = percent of all valid votes cast (without eliminating the exhausted votes)
% (net) = percent of votes cast after eliminating the exhausted votes

Republican primary[]

Declared[]

  • Bruce Poliquin, incumbent U.S. representative[50]

Results[]

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Bruce Poliquin (incumbent) 43,047 83.9
Total votes 43,047 100.0

Green primary[]

Failed to make the ballot[]

Libertarian primary[]

Withdrawn[]

  • Brian Kresge, writer (running for State House)

Independent candidates[]

  • Tiffany Bond, attorney[52]
  • Will Hoar, schoolteacher[52]

General election[]

All candidates except for Poliquin said they would abide by the results of ranked-choice voting and make second and third choices when they vote. Poliquin said he would only cast a first-round vote for himself, stating that he felt no one but him is qualified for the seat.[53]

Though Poliquin led in the first round of vote tabulation by 2,171 votes, he did not have a majority of the votes, initiating the ranked-choice tabulation process. Poliquin filed a lawsuit in federal court on November 13, seeking an order to halt the second-round tabulation of ballots and declare ranked-choice voting unconstitutional.[54] Poliquin's request for an injunction to halt the ranked-choice voting process was rejected, shortly before Matthew Dunlap, the Maine Secretary of State, announced Golden as the winner by 3,509 votes after votes for independent candidates Tiffany Bond and Will Hoar were eliminated and ballots with these votes had their second- or third-choice votes counted.[55] Poliquin requested a recount of the ballots just before the deadline of November 26.[56] After several days of counting with the result not being significantly changed, Poliquin ended the recount after incurring $15,000 in fees.[57] Poliquin also stated that his lawsuit would continue[58] and asked Judge Lance Walker, the federal judge hearing his lawsuit, to order a new election be held should he decline to hold ranked-choice voting unconstitutional.[59] Judge Walker ruled against Poliquin on the merits on December 13, rejecting all of his arguments.[60] Poliquin appealed to the Court of Appeals in Boston and requested an order to prevent Golden from being certified as the winner, but that request was rejected.[57] On December 24, Poliquin dropped his lawsuit, allowing Golden to take the seat.[61][62][63][64] As a result, Poliquin became the first incumbent to lose the 2nd Congressional District since 1916, whereas Golden became the first member of Congress to be elected via ranked-choice voting. This also made New England's delegation to the House entirely Democratic for the first time since 2012.

Gov. Paul LePage, as one of his last acts in office, reluctantly initialed the certificate of election for Golden, adding the words "stolen election" to it to express his personal dislike of ranked-choice voting.[65]

Endorsements[]

Jared Golden
National politicians
  • Joe Biden, former Vice President of the United States[66]
  • Barack Obama, former President of the United States[67]
  • Seth Moulton, Representative for Massachusetts's 6th Congressional district[34]
  • Brian Schatz, U.S. Senator (D-HI)[68]
Local and statewide politicians
  • Robert Alley, State Representative[34]
  • Betty Austin, state representative[34]
  • Heidi Brooks, state representative[34]
  • Barbara Cardone, state representative[34]
  • Michael E. Carpenter, State Senator and former Maine Attorney General[34]
  • Robert Duchesne, state representative[34]
  • Michelle Dunphy, state representative[34]
  • Jessica L. Fay, state representative[34]
  • Aaron Frey, state representative[34]
  • Roger Fuller, state representative[34]
  • Sara Gideon, Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives[35]
  • Gay Grant, state representative[34]
  • James R. Handy, state representative[34]
  • Brian Hubbell, state representative[34]
  • Victoria Kornfield, state representative[34]
  • Walter Kumiega, state representative[34]
  • Nate Libby, state senator[34]
  • Louis Luchini, state representative[34]
  • Colleen Madigan, state representative[34]
  • John Madigan, state representative[34]
  • Danny Martin, state representative[34]
  • John L. Martin, state representative, former Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives[34]
  • David McCrea, state representative[34]
  • Gina Melaragno, state representative[34]
  • Catherine Nadeau, state representative[34]
  • Anne Perry, state representative[34]
  • Christina "Tina" Riley, state representative[34]
  • Tom Saviello, state senator (Republican)[69][70]
  • John Schneck, state representative[34]
  • Bettyann Sheats, state representative[34]
  • Stephen Stanley, state representative[34]
  • Ryan Tipping, state representative[34]
  • Stanley Paige Zeigler, state representative[34]
Individuals
  • Amy Fried, political scientist[36]
  • Stephen King, author[71]
  • Martin Sheen, actor[72]
Trade unions
  • Maine AFL-CIO[34]
  • National Nurses United[34]
  • United Steelworkers[34]
  • International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers[34]
  • Professional Firefighters of Maine[34]
  • International Association of Fire Fighters[34]
Organizations
Media
Bruce Poliquin
National politicians
  • Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States[77]
Local and statewide politicians
  • Susan Collins, US Senator (R-ME)[70]
Organizations
  • US Chamber of Commerce[78]
  • America First Action[79]
  • Sportsman's Alliance of Maine[80]
  • National Rifle Association[81]

Polling[]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
RCV
round
Bruce
Poliquin
(R)
Jared
Golden
(D)
Tiffany
Bond
(I)
Will
Hoar
(I)
Other Undecided
Emerson College October 27–29, 2018 441 ± 4.9% 46% 47% 3% 4%
NYT Upshot/Siena College October 15–18, 2018 501 ± 4.8% 41% 41% 15%
Global Strategy Group (D) October 9–12, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 42% 48% 10%
Pan Atlantic Research October 1–7, 2018 251 37% 37% 6% 3% 17%
NYT Upshot/Siena College September 12–14, 2018 506 ± 4.8% 47% 42% 11%
The Mellman Group (D-Golden) September 4–7, 2018 ± 4.9% 46% 54%
The Mellman Group (D-Golden) July 25–30, 2018 400 ± 4.9% Round 1 40% 39% 3% 1% 16%
Round 2 48% 48% 4%
Round 3 49% 51%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bruce
Poliquin (R)
Lucas
St. Clair (D)
Other Undecided
Global Strategy Group October 2–5, 2017 400 ± 4.9% 44% 41%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bruce
Poliquin (R)
Democratic
candidate
Other Undecided
PPP/Patriot Majority USA February 12–13, 2018 628 ± 3.9% 44% 45% 11%
PPP/Patriot Majority USA October 5–8, 2017 951 ± 3.2% 44% 45% 11%

Predictions[]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[82] Tossup October 3, 2018
Inside Elections[83] Tossup September 28, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[84] Lean D (flip) November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[85] Tossup September 28, 2018
Fox News[86] Tossup September 21, 2018
CNN[87] Tossup October 2, 2018
RealClearPolitics[88] Tossup September 21, 2018
The New York Times[89] Tossup September 26, 2018
Politico[90] Tossup September 21, 2018

Results[]

Maine's 2nd congressional district, 2018 results[91]
Party Candidate Round 1 Round 3
Votes % Transfer Votes % (gross) % (net)
Democratic Jared Golden 132,013 45.6% + 10,427 142,440 49.18% 50.62%
Republican Bruce Poliquin (incumbent) 134,184 46.3% + 4,747 138,931 47.97% 49.38%
Independent Tiffany Bond 16,552 5.7% - 16,552 Eliminated
Independent Will Hoar 6,875 2.4% - 6,875 Eliminated
Total active votes 289,624 100%
281,371 100%
Exhausted ballots - +8,253 8,253 2.85%
Total votes 289,624 100%
289,624 100%

% (gross) = percent of all valid votes cast (without eliminating the exhausted votes)
% (net) = percent of votes cast after eliminating the exhausted votes

Poliquin led on first preferences with 46.4% to Golden's 45.6% and 8.1% for the two independents. However, as no candidate had a majority of the votes, the votes cast for the two independents were redistributed between Poliquin and Golden (those that didn't give a preference for either of the candidates were exhausted) and Golden won the election. The reason both independents were eliminated in a single round, as opposed to only the 4th place candidate, was because of the mathematical impossibility of the 3rd place candidate moving into 2nd place even if they had received all of the 4th place candidate's redistributed votes.

Of the votes left in the count, Golden won with 50.62% of the vote to Poliquin's 49.38%. Including exhausted votes, the final count was Golden 49.2%, Poliquin 48.0%, and 2.8% exhausted.

The votes for the two independents were redistributed as follows: 44.5% went to Golden, 20.3% went to Poliquin, and 35.2% were exhausted votes (i.e., they didn't give a preference to either of the remaining candidates).

See also[]

  • 2018 United States House of Representatives elections

References[]

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  2. ^ "Maine Voters Overrule Their Leaders". The Atlantic. 15 June 2018. Archived from the original on 22 June 2018. Retrieved 24 June 2018.
  3. ^ "Ranked-choice voting fans hope Maine's experiment pays off". 21 June 2018. Archived from the original on 25 June 2018. Retrieved 24 June 2018.
  4. ^ Johnson, Cheryl L. (February 28, 2019). "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 6, 2018". Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives. Archived from the original on January 3, 2013. Retrieved April 27, 2019.
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  6. ^ a b "Maine GOP Governor Backs Independent In Congressional Race". MPBN. June 20, 2018. Archived from the original on June 20, 2018. Retrieved June 20, 2018.
  7. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x "Massive Group of ME Republican Leaders Endorse Marty Grohman for Congress". MartyGrohman.com. September 12, 2018. Archived from the original on September 16, 2018. Retrieved September 16, 2018.
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  43. ^ @NationalNurses (May 18, 2018). "NNU is proud to endorse Jared Golden @golden4congress for Congress in ME-02. Nurses are on #TeamGolden because Jared stands with labor and will work for #MedicareForAll!" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
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  52. ^ a b @TiffanyBond (June 21, 2018). "#mepolitics, Our #ME02 ballot is set. @tiffanybond @RepPoliquin @golden4congress @willhoar I look forward to competition that brings out the best in us. Pick the person who will make functional, humane law for rural Maine. Gentlemen, be kind and wise in your campaigns" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
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  66. ^ Jared Golden [@golden4congress] (October 17, 2018). "I am honored to receive the endorsement of Vice President Joe Biden #ME02 #mepolitics" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
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External links[]

Official campaign websites for first district candidates
Official campaign websites for second district candidates
Retrieved from ""