2018 United States Senate election in Ohio

2018 United States Senate election in Ohio

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Turnout	54.65%
Nominee Sherrod Brown Jim Renacci Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 2,355,923 2,053,963 Percentage 53.4% 46.6%
County results Brown:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80% Renacci:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
U.S. senator before election Sherrod Brown Democratic Elected U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown Democratic

Elections in Ohio
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v t

The 2018 United States Senate election in Ohio took place November 6, 2018. The candidate filing deadline was February 7, 2018; the primary election was held May 8, 2018.^[1] Democratic U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown—the only remaining elected Democratic statewide officeholder in Ohio at the time of the election—won his reelection bid for a third term, defeating Republican U.S. Representative Jim Renacci in the general election.^[2][3]

Democratic primary[]

Candidates[]

Nominee[]

• Sherrod Brown, incumbent U.S. Senator^[4]

Results[]

Democratic primary results^[5]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Sherrod Brown (incumbent)	613,373	100.00%
Total votes			613,373	100.00%

Republican primary[]

Candidates[]

Nominee[]

• Jim Renacci, U.S. Representative^[6]

Eliminated in primary[]

• Melissa Ackison, businesswoman^[7]
• Don Elijah Eckhart, candidate for the Republican nomination in 2016^[8]
• Mike Gibbons, investment banker^[9]
• Dennis Jones^[10]
• Dan Kiley^[11]

Withdrawn[]

• Josh Mandel, Ohio State Treasurer and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2012^[12][13]

Declined[]

• Ken Blackwell, former mayor of Cincinnati, former Ohio State Treasurer, and former Ohio Secretary of State^[14]
• Rick Jones, Butler County Sheriff^[15][16]
• John Kasich, Governor of Ohio, former U.S. Representative^[17]
• Mary Taylor, Lieutenant Governor of Ohio (ran for governor and lost the primary)^[15]
• Pat Tiberi, U.S. Representative^{[18][19][20][21]}
• J. D. Vance, author and venture capitalist^{[22][23][24][25]}

Endorsements[]

Polling[]

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Melissa Ackison	Don Eckhart	Mike Gibbons	Dan Kiley	Jim Renacci	Undecided
Baldwin Wallace University	April 24 – May 2, 2018	323	–	4%	1%	11%	4%	25%	55%
Fallon Research	April 4–7, 2018	502	± 4.4%	3%	2%	7%	1%	21%	65%
OnMessage (R-Renacci)	March 20, 2018	–	–	3%	3%	8%	3%	36%	47%
SurveyUSA	March 16–20, 2018	541	± 5.7%	5%	5%	10%	1%	21%	58%

Results[]

Republican primary results^[72]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Jim Renacci	363,622	47.34%
	Republican	Mike Gibbons	243,426	31.69%
	Republican	Melissa Ackison	100,543	13.09%
	Republican	Dan Kiley	30,684	3.99%
	Republican	Don Eckhart	29,796	3.88%
	Write-in		78	0.01%
Total votes			768,149	100.00%

General election[]

Candidates[]

• Sherrod Brown (D)
• Stephen Faris (I, write-in)^[73]
• Philena Irene Farley (G, write-in)^[74]
• Bruce Jaynes (L, write-in)
• Jim Renacci (R)

Debates[]

• Complete video of debate, October 14, 2018
• Complete video of debate, October 20, 2018
• Complete video of debate, October 26, 2018

Endorsements[]

Predictions[]

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[134]	Likely D	October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[135]	Safe D	November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[136]	Likely D	November 5, 2018
Fox News[137][a]	Likely D	November 5, 2018
CNN[138]	Likely D	November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[139]	Lean D	November 5, 2018

Polling[]

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Sherrod Brown (D)	Jim Renacci (R)	Other	Undecided
Change Research	November 2–4, 2018	923	–	53%	43%	–	–
Research Co.	November 1–3, 2018	450	± 4.6%	53%	39%	–	8%
Cygnal (R)	October 30–31, 2018	503	± 4.4%	52%	42%	–	6%
Gravis Marketing	October 29–30, 2018	789	± 3.5%	46%	37%	–	17%
Emerson College	October 26–28, 2018	566	± 4.3%	49%	43%	2%[140]	6%
Baldwin Wallace University	October 19–27, 2018	1,051	± 3.8%	51%	32%	–	17%
Suffolk University	October 4–8, 2018	500	± 4.4%	54%	36%	0%[141]	10%
Baldwin Wallace University	September 8 – October 8, 2018	1,017	± 3.5%	50%	33%	–	18%
University of Akron	September 10 – October 4, 2018	1,000	± 3.0%	43%	31%	–	26%
Ipsos	September 13–21, 2018	1,074	± 3.0%	50%	39%	2%	9%
Triton Polling & Research (R)	September 18–20, 2018	1,003	± 3.1%	53%	42%	–	5%
NBC News/Marist	September 16–20, 2018	564 LV	± 5.0%	49%	35%	7%[142]	8%
				52%	39%	1%	7%
		796 RV	± 4.2%	49%	33%	10%[143]	9%
				52%	39%	1%	8%
Baldwin Wallace University	September 5–15, 2018	1,048	± 3.6%	49%	32%	–	19%
Morning Consult	September 2–11, 2018	1,592	± 2.0%	47%	31%	–	22%
Change Research (D-Innovation Ohio)	August 31 – September 4, 2018	822	± 3.0%	46%	42%	–	12%
TRZ Communications (R-WTPC)	June 30 – July 10, 2018	1,485	± 3.0%	45%	41%	–	14%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	June 11 – July 2, 2018	951	± 5.0%	52%	44%	–	4%
NBC News/Marist	June 17–22, 2018	778	± 4.4%	51%	38%	1%	10%
Quinnipiac University	June 7–12, 2018	1,082	± 3.7%	51%	34%	1%	12%
Suffolk University	June 6–11, 2018	500	± 4.4%	53%	37%	2%	8%
America First Action (R)	May 29–31, 2018	400	± 4.9%	45%	41%	–	10%
Fallon Research	May 21–25, 2018	800	± 3.5%	48%	34%	3%[144]	15%
Grassroots Targeting (R-Ohio First)[permanent dead link]	April 2018	1,266	–	41%	40%	–	19%
SurveyUSA	March 16–20, 2018	1,408	± 3.5%	52%	38%	–	11%
Baldwin Wallace University	February 28 – March 9, 2018	1,011	± 3.0%	41%	29%	–	30%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	February 12 – March 5, 2018	1,995	± 3.6%	50%	45%	–	5%
Grassroots Targeting (R-Ohio First)[permanent dead link]	February 2018	–	–	43%	38%	–	19%

Results[]

The election was not particularly close, with Brown winning by 6.84%. Brown was the only Democrat who won statewide in Ohio in this election cycle. Brown was able to win re-election by winning back most of the Rust Belt, which swung Republican in 2016. Brown did well in Portage County, Summit County, and Trumbull County, which are all very heavily pro union counties. Brown also did well in the rust belt from Lucas County, home of Toledo, all the way to Cuyahoga County, home of Cleveland. Brown also trounced Renacci in Franklin County and Hamilton County home of Columbus and Cincinnati respectively; the latter, Hamilton County was once considered a Republican stronghold. Renacci, while performing well in most rural areas of the state, underperformed Mike DeWine, the Republican Party's nominee and eventual winner for governor. Regardless, Renacci somewhat overperformed in comparison to most polling before the election, while Brown lost in several counties he had won in his previous Senate races. Exit polls also show Brown had a very strong showing amongst minority and women voters, which was key to his victory. Brown was sworn in for a third term as the senior senator from Ohio on January 3, 2019.

United States Senate election in Ohio, 2018^[145]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Sherrod Brown (incumbent)	2,355,923	53.41%	+2.70%
	Republican	Jim Renacci	2,053,963	46.57%	+1.87%
	Write-in		1,012	0.02%	N/A
Total votes			4,410,898	100.00%	N/A
	Democratic hold

By congressional district[]

Brown won 9 of 16 congressional districts, including the 1st, 10th, 12th, 14th and 15th districts, which elected Republicans to the House.^[146]

District	Brown	Renacci	Representative
1st	49.82%	48.41%	Steve Chabot
2nd	47.54%	50.59%
			Brad Wenstrup
3rd	73.88%	24.82%	Joyce Beatty
4th	41.96%	55.90%	Jim Jordan
5th	45.33%	51.34%	Bob Latta
6th	40.13%	57.23%	Bill Johnson
7th	43.42%	54.40%	Bob Gibbs
8th	38.79%	59.50%	Warren Davidson
9th	67.15%	30.97%	Marcy Kaptur
10th	51.92%	46.55%	Mike Turner
11th	82.53%	15.73%	Marcia Fudge
12th	50.48%	47.82%	Troy Balderson
13th	61.10%	36.80%	Tim Ryan
14th	51.58%	46.32%	Dave Joyce
15th	49.78%	48.22%	Steve Stivers
16th	48.56%	49.42%	Jim Renacci (115th Congress)
			Anthony Gonzalez (116th Congress)

References[]