2021 Ohio's 15th congressional district special election

Ohio's 15th congressional district special election
Ohio's 15th congressional district
	County results; Carey: 60–70% 70–80% 80–90%; Russo: 50–60% 60–70%
U.S. Representative before election; Steve Stivers; Republican	Elected U.S. Representative ; Mike Carey; Republican

On May 16, 2021, Representative Steve Stivers resigned from his seat in the United States House of Representatives to become president and CEO of the Ohio Chamber of Commerce.^[1] Following Stivers' official communication of his intent to resign, Ohio Governor Mike DeWine announced that the special election to fill the remainder of his term would be held on November 2, 2021, with the primary election held on August 3, concurrent with the special election in Ohio's 11th congressional district.^[2]^[3] In the general election on November 2, Republican nominee Mike Carey defeated Democratic nominee Allison Russo by roughly 17 percentage points.

Republican primary[]

Candidates[]

Nominee[]

Mike Carey, vice president of government affairs at American Consolidated Natural Resources^[4]

Eliminated in primary[]

John Adams, owner of Green Valley Chemicals^[4]
Eric M. Clark, LPN at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base^[4]
Thad Cooperrider, former Perry County commissioner^[4]
Ruth Edmonds, advisory board member at Ohio's Office of Faith-Based and Community Initiatives^[5]^[6]
Ron Hood, former state representative^[4]
Thomas Hwang, owner of The Virtues Golf Club^[4]
Stephanie Kunze, state senator^[7]
Jeff LaRe, state representative^[7]
Bob Peterson, state senator^[8]
Omar Tarazi, attorney and Hilliard city councilmember^[9]^[10]

Withdrawn[]

Brian Stewart, state representative^[11]

Declined[]

Jeff Fix, Fairfield County commissioner^[4]

Endorsements[]

Mike Carey

Executive Branch officials

Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017–2021)^[12]

U.S. Representatives

Elise Stefanik, chair of the House Republican Conference (2021–present) and U.S. Representative from NY-21 (2015–present)^[13]

Notable individuals

Corey Lewandowski, senior advisor to former President Donald Trump^[4]

Stephanie Kunze

Organizations

Franklin County, Ohio Republican Party
Maggie's List^[14]

Jeff LaRe

U.S. Representatives

Steve Stivers, former U.S. Representative from OH-15 (2011–2021)^[15]

State Representatives

Haraz Ghanbari (R-Perrysburg)
Assistant Majority Whip Cindy Abrams (R-Harrison)
Majority Floor Leader Bill Seitz (R-Cincinnati)
Bob Young (R-Green)
Phil Plummer (R-Dayton)
Tom Young (R-Washington Twp.)
Reggie Stoltzfus (R-Paris Twp.)
Sara Carruthers (R- Hamilton)
Thomas Hall (R-Madison Twp.)
Mike Loychik (R-Bazetta)
Adam Bird (R-New Richmond)
Gail Pavliga (R-Portage County)
Jon Cross (R-Kenton)
D. J. Swearingen (R-Huron)
Brett Hillyer (R-Uhrichsville)

Organizations

Left or Right Politics

Bob Peterson

U.S. Representatives

Steve Austria, former U.S. Representative from OH-07 (2009–2013)^[16]
Dave Hobson, former U.S. Representative from OH-07 (1991–2009)^[16]

State legislators

Jay Hottinger, President pro tempore of the Ohio Senate (2021–present) from District 31 (1998–2006; 2015–present)^[16]
Mark Johnson, Ohio State Representative from District 92 (2021–present)^[16]
Tim Schaffer, Ohio State Senator from District 20 (2019–present)^[16]
Bob Hackett, Ohio State Senator

County Commissioners

Harold "Champ" Henson, III, Pickaway County, Ohio
Gary Scherer, Pickaway County, Ohio, Commissioner and former Ohio State Representative from District 92 (2012–2020)^[16]

Ron Hood

U.S. Senators

Rand Paul, U.S. Senator from Kentucky (2011–present)^[17]

Ruth Edmonds

Notable individuals

James Dobson, evangelical Christian author, psychologist, and founder of Focus on the Family^[18]

Polling[]

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	John Adams	Mike Carey	Eric Clark	Thad Cooperrider	Ruth Edmonds	Ron Hood	Thomas Hwang	Stephanie Kunze	Jeff LaRe	Bob Peterson	Omar Tarazi	Undecided
Fabrizio Lee & Associates (R)^[A]	June 23–24, 2021	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	<1%	20%	0%	2%	<1%	7%	3%	6%	9%	7%	1%	44%

Results[]

Results by county

Carey

Carey—30–40%
Carey—40–50%
Carey—50–60%

Peterson

Peterson—50–60%

Republican primary results^[19]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Mike Carey	18,805	36.3
	Republican	Jeff LaRe	6,776	13.1
	Republican	Ron Hood	6,676	12.9
	Republican	Bob Peterson	6,407	12.4
	Republican	Ruth Edmonds	5,090	9.8
	Republican	Thomas Hwang	2,499	4.8
	Republican	Stephanie Kunze	2,363	4.6
	Republican	Thad Cooperrider	1,076	2.1
	Republican	Omar Tarazi	907	1.7
	Republican	John Adams	173	0.3
	Republican	Eric M. Clark	83	0.2
Total votes			51,855	100.0

Democratic primary[]

Candidates[]

Nominee[]

Allison Russo, state representative^[20]^[21]

Eliminated in primary[]

Greg Betts^[4]

Declined[]

Tina Maharath, state senator^[20]^[22]
Joel Newby, attorney and nominee for Ohio's 15th congressional district in 2020^[23]
Steve Patterson, mayor of Athens (endorsed Russo)^[24]^[25]
Michael Stinziano, Franklin County auditor^[4]

Endorsements[]

Allison Russo

U.S. Senators

Sherrod Brown, U.S. Senator from Ohio (2007–present)^[26]

Local officials

Steve Patterson, Mayor of Athens^[25]

Organizations

314 Action^[27]
AFL–CIO^[28]
United Auto Workers^[28]

Results[]

Results by county

Russo

Russo—70–80%
Russo—80–90%

Democratic primary results^[19]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Allison Russo	13,704	84.2
	Democratic	Greg Betts	2,576	15.8
Total votes			16,280	100.0

General election[]

Predictions[]

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[29]	Likely R	August 4, 2021
Inside Elections^[30]	Solid R	October 27, 2021
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[31]	Likely R	August 4, 2021

Endorsements[]

Mike Carey (R)

Executive Branch officials

Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017–2021)^[32]
Mike Pence, 48th Vice President of the United States (2017–2021)^[33]

U.S. Representatives

Elise Stefanik, chair of the House Republican Conference (2021–present) and U.S. Representative from NY-21 (2015–present)^[34]

Notable individuals

Corey Lewandowski, senior advisor to former President Donald Trump^[4]

Allison Russo (D)

Executive Branch officials

Joe Biden, 46th President of the United States (2021–present)^[35]

U.S. Senators

Sherrod Brown, U.S. Senator from Ohio (2007–present)^[36]

Local officials

Steve Patterson, Mayor of Athens^[25]

Organizations

314 Action^[37]
AFL–CIO^[28]
EMILY's List^[38]
League of Conservation Voters^[39]
United Auto Workers^[28]

Polling[]

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Mike Carey (R)	Allison Russo (D)	Undecided
Emerson College	October 14–16, 2021	445 (LV)	± 4.6%	50%	39%	11%

Notes

^ ^a ^b Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

Results[]

2021 Ohio's 15th congressional district special election
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Mike Carey	94,501	58.3
	Democratic	Allison Russo	67,588	41.7
Total votes			162,089	100.0

By county[]

County	Mike Carey Republican		Allison Russo Democratic		Margin		Total votes
County	#	%	#	%	#	%	Total votes
Athens	3,575	37.2	6,043	62.8	2,468		9,618
Clinton	5,880	78.5	1,610	21.5	4,270		7,490
Fairfield	20,654	65.4	10,932	34.6	9,722		31,586
Fayette	910	84.6	166	15.4	144		1,076
Franklin	29,551	45.2	35,859	54.8	6,308		65,410
Hocking	3,727	68.8	1,692	31.2	2,035		5,419
Madison	6,412	72.7	2,407	27.3	4,005		8,819
Morgan	2,498	74.3	864	25.7	1,634		3,362
Perry	5,411	72.5	2,048	27.5	3,363		7,459
Pickaway	8,215	73.8	2,920	26.2	5,295		11,135
Ross	4,550	73.8	1,615	26.2	2,935		6,165
Vinton	1,872	75.7	601	24.3	1,271		2,473
Total	93,255	58.3	66,757	41.7	26,498		160,012

Source:^[40]

Notes[]

Partisan clients

^ This poll was sponsored by Mike Carey's campaign

References[]

^ "Rep. Steve Stivers will resign from Congress to join Ohio Chamber". WCMH-TV. 2021-04-19. Retrieved 2021-04-19.
^ Clay, Jarrod (2021-04-26). "Gov. DeWine calls special election for Ohio's 15th Congressional District". WTTE. Retrieved 2021-04-26.
^ "Governor DeWine calls special election for Ohio's 15th Congressional District". Highland County Press. Retrieved 2021-04-26.
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h ⁱ ^j ^k "12 Republicans, two Democrats vie for 15th Congressional District seat to replace Steve Stivers". The Columbus Dispatch. May 17, 2021. Retrieved May 17, 2021.
^ @CATargetBot (May 5, 2021). "'NEW 2021 FEC F2, Ruth Edmonds (REP), #OH15 (R-Stivers)'" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
^ "Faith-Based and Community Initiatives". Retrieved May 9, 2021.
^ ^a ^b Bischoff, Laura A. "Five Republicans in central Ohio already seeking to replace Rep. Steve Stivers in Congress". The Columbus Dispatch. Retrieved 2021-04-29.
^ "State Senator Bob Peterson announces candidacy for U.S. Congress". Highland County Press. April 20, 2021. Retrieved April 21, 2021.
^ @CATargetBot (May 7, 2021). "'NEW 2021 FEC F2, Omar Tarazi (REP), #OH15 (R-Stivers)'" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
^ "Law Office of Attorney Omar Tarazi". Retrieved May 9, 2021.
^ Brian Stewart [@BrianStewartOH] (2021-06-04). "I am deeply grateful to the volunteers, friends, donors - and most of all, my family - who helped us get #StewartForCongress off to an amazing start. However, it's become clear that this is not yet my time, and I am suspending my campaign. My full statement is below. #OH15" (Tweet). Retrieved 2021-06-04 – via Twitter.
^ Haley BeMiller (June 8, 2021). "Former President Donald Trump endorses Mike Carey in 15th Congressional District race". The Columbus Dispatch.
^ "Stefanik endorses Trump candidate in Ohio GOP primary race". 13 July 2021.
^ Steinhauser, Paul (June 22, 2021). "Conservative PAC that supports female candidates makes initial 2022 endorsements". Fox News. Archived from the original on June 30, 2021. Retrieved July 2, 2021.
^ Barron, Jeff; BeMiller, Haley (June 2, 2021). "Steve Stivers endorses Jeff LaRe as his 15th Congressional District replacement". Lancaster Eagle-Gazette. Retrieved June 2, 2021.
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f Reutter, Justin (June 9, 2021). "Meet the candidate: Senator Bob Peterson". Chillicothe Gazette. Retrieved June 12, 2021.
^ Alex Isenstadt (July 14, 2021). "'It will be remembered': Trump allies cross him in special election". Politico.
^ Colvin, Jill; Beaumont, Thomas; Smyth, Julie Carr (August 2, 2021). "Trump's kingmaker status faces test in Ohio special election". Associated Press.
^ ^a ^b "JasperReports - /Election Summary - Includes Overlaps" (PDF). Franklin County Board of Elections. Retrieved August 27, 2021.
^ ^a ^b Bischoff, Laura A. "Rep. Steve Stivers is out; Central Ohio politicos lining up to replace him". The Columbus Dispatch. Retrieved 2021-04-19.
^ Allison Russo [@Russo4Ohio] (May 11, 2021). "We all want our kids and grandkids to have the opportunities they need to put down roots and raise a family of their own here in Ohio someday. Together, we can build an economy that works for all of us. #Russo4Ohio15" (Tweet). Retrieved May 11, 2021 – via Twitter.
^ @JMBorchardt (10 May 2021). "State Sen. @TinaMaharath (D) will NOT run for #OH15 to replace Steve Stivers, will stay in the Ohio Senate. "There is more work that needs to be done."" (Tweet). Retrieved 2021-05-10 – via Twitter.
^ "www.joelnewby.com - D-15 2021 Special Election Statement". joelnewby.com. Retrieved 2021-04-25.
^ Behrens, Cole (2021-05-03). "Patterson bows out of consideration for Stivers' U.S. congress seat". Retrieved 2021-05-03.
^ ^a ^b ^c Peters, Ben (July 7, 2021). "Athens Mayor endorses Democrat Allison Russo in Ohio's 15th Congressional District race". Athens News.
^ Reutter, Justin (July 5, 2021). "Democratic challenger hopes to flip 15th Congressional District". Chillicothe Gazette.
^ "this OPEN seat in Ohio is the only red-to-blue pickup opportunity of 2021". Archive of Political Emails. May 11, 2021.
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d Behrens, Cole (July 7, 2021). "Athens mayor endorses state Rep. Allison Russo for special election". The Athens Messenger.
^ Dave Wasserman (August 4, 2021). "OH-11 and OH-15 First Thoughts: These Are Biden and Trump's Parties". Retrieved December 7, 2021.
^ Rothenberg, Stuart (October 27, 2021). "House Ratings". House Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved December 9, 2021.
^ Kondik, Kyle (August 5, 2021). "Notes on the State of Politics: August 4, 2021". Retrieved August 4, 2021.
^ Haley BeMiller (June 8, 2021). "Former President Donald Trump endorses Mike Carey in 15th Congressional District race". The Columbus Dispatch.
^ Mike Pence [@Mike_Pence] (August 4, 2021). "Congratulations to my friend Mike Carey on winning the Republican nomination in OH-15! With a win this November, MikeCareyOH15 will be a champion for Ohio and America on Day One. Congratulations Mike!" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
^ "Stefanik endorses Trump candidate in Ohio GOP primary race". Fox News. 13 July 2021.
^ Gomez, Henry (July 5, 2021). "Biden endorses Allison Russo in special congressional election in Ohio". NBC News.
^ Reutter, Justin (November 1, 2021). "Democratic challenger hopes to flip 15th Congressional District". Chillicothe Gazette.
^ "this OPEN seat in Ohio is the only red-to-blue pickup opportunity of 2021". Archive of Political Emails. May 11, 2021.
^ "EMILY's List Endorses Allison Russo for Congress". EMILY's List. August 10, 2021. Retrieved October 26, 2021.
^ "LCV ACTION FUND ENDORSES SHONTEL BROWN AND ALLISON RUSSO FOR CONGRESS". League of Conservation Voters. September 9, 2021. Retrieved October 26, 2021.
^ "Ohio Special Congressional Election Results". The New York Times.

External links[]

[Key-19] Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

[Carey-20] This poll was sponsored by Mike Carey's campaign

[1] "Rep. Steve Stivers will resign from Congress to join Ohio Chamber". WCMH-TV. 2021-04-19. Retrieved 2021-04-19.

[2] Clay, Jarrod (2021-04-26). "Gov. DeWine calls special election for Ohio's 15th Congressional District". WTTE. Retrieved 2021-04-26.

[3] "Governor DeWine calls special election for Ohio's 15th Congressional District". Highland County Press. Retrieved 2021-04-26.

[CDFiling-4] ^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h ⁱ ^j ^k "12 Republicans, two Democrats vie for 15th Congressional District seat to replace Steve Stivers". The Columbus Dispatch. May 17, 2021. Retrieved May 17, 2021.

[5] @CATargetBot (May 5, 2021). "'NEW 2021 FEC F2, Ruth Edmonds (REP), #OH15 (R-Stivers)'" (Tweet) – via Twitter.

[6] "Faith-Based and Community Initiatives". Retrieved May 9, 2021.

[Dispatch_2021-04-29-7] Bischoff, Laura A. "Five Republicans in central Ohio already seeking to replace Rep. Steve Stivers in Congress". The Columbus Dispatch. Retrieved 2021-04-29.

[8] "State Senator Bob Peterson announces candidacy for U.S. Congress". Highland County Press. April 20, 2021. Retrieved April 21, 2021.

[9] @CATargetBot (May 7, 2021). "'NEW 2021 FEC F2, Omar Tarazi (REP), #OH15 (R-Stivers)'" (Tweet) – via Twitter.

[10] "Law Office of Attorney Omar Tarazi". Retrieved May 9, 2021.

[11] Brian Stewart [@BrianStewartOH] (2021-06-04). "I am deeply grateful to the volunteers, friends, donors - and most of all, my family - who helped us get #StewartForCongress off to an amazing start. However, it's become clear that this is not yet my time, and I am suspending my campaign. My full statement is below. #OH15" (Tweet). Retrieved 2021-06-04 – via Twitter.

[12] Haley BeMiller (June 8, 2021). "Former President Donald Trump endorses Mike Carey in 15th Congressional District race". The Columbus Dispatch.

[13] "Stefanik endorses Trump candidate in Ohio GOP primary race". 13 July 2021.

[14] Steinhauser, Paul (June 22, 2021). "Conservative PAC that supports female candidates makes initial 2022 endorsements". Fox News. Archived from the original on June 30, 2021. Retrieved July 2, 2021.

[15] Barron, Jeff; BeMiller, Haley (June 2, 2021). "Steve Stivers endorses Jeff LaRe as his 15th Congressional District replacement". Lancaster Eagle-Gazette. Retrieved June 2, 2021.

[Chill-16] ^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f Reutter, Justin (June 9, 2021). "Meet the candidate: Senator Bob Peterson". Chillicothe Gazette. Retrieved June 12, 2021.

[Paul_Meadows-17] Alex Isenstadt (July 14, 2021). "'It will be remembered': Trump allies cross him in special election". Politico.

[18] Colvin, Jill; Beaumont, Thomas; Smyth, Julie Carr (August 2, 2021). "Trump's kingmaker status faces test in Ohio special election". Associated Press.

[OfficialResults-21] "JasperReports - /Election Summary - Includes Overlaps" (PDF). Franklin County Board of Elections. Retrieved August 27, 2021.

[Dispatch_2021-04-19-22] Bischoff, Laura A. "Rep. Steve Stivers is out; Central Ohio politicos lining up to replace him". The Columbus Dispatch. Retrieved 2021-04-19.

[23] Allison Russo [@Russo4Ohio] (May 11, 2021). "We all want our kids and grandkids to have the opportunities they need to put down roots and raise a family of their own here in Ohio someday. Together, we can build an economy that works for all of us. #Russo4Ohio15" (Tweet). Retrieved May 11, 2021 – via Twitter.

[24] @JMBorchardt (10 May 2021). "State Sen. @TinaMaharath (D) will NOT run for #OH15 to replace Steve Stivers, will stay in the Ohio Senate. "There is more work that needs to be done."" (Tweet). Retrieved 2021-05-10 – via Twitter.

[25] "www.joelnewby.com - D-15 2021 Special Election Statement". joelnewby.com. Retrieved 2021-04-25.

[26] Behrens, Cole (2021-05-03). "Patterson bows out of consideration for Stivers' U.S. congress seat". Retrieved 2021-05-03.

[ath-27] Peters, Ben (July 7, 2021). "Athens Mayor endorses Democrat Allison Russo in Ohio's 15th Congressional District race". Athens News.

[28] Reutter, Justin (July 5, 2021). "Democratic challenger hopes to flip 15th Congressional District". Chillicothe Gazette.

[29] "this OPEN seat in Ohio is the only red-to-blue pickup opportunity of 2021". Archive of Political Emails. May 11, 2021.

[Ath-30] Behrens, Cole (July 7, 2021). "Athens mayor endorses state Rep. Allison Russo for special election". The Athens Messenger.

[Cook-31] Dave Wasserman (August 4, 2021). "OH-11 and OH-15 First Thoughts: These Are Biden and Trump's Parties". Retrieved December 7, 2021.

[Inside_Elections-32] Rothenberg, Stuart (October 27, 2021). "House Ratings". House Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved December 9, 2021.

[Sabato's_Crystal_Ball-33] Kondik, Kyle (August 5, 2021). "Notes on the State of Politics: August 4, 2021". Retrieved August 4, 2021.

[34] Haley BeMiller (June 8, 2021). "Former President Donald Trump endorses Mike Carey in 15th Congressional District race". The Columbus Dispatch.

[35] Mike Pence [@Mike_Pence] (August 4, 2021). "Congratulations to my friend Mike Carey on winning the Republican nomination in OH-15! With a win this November, MikeCareyOH15 will be a champion for Ohio and America on Day One. Congratulations Mike!" (Tweet) – via Twitter.

[36] "Stefanik endorses Trump candidate in Ohio GOP primary race". Fox News. 13 July 2021.

[37] Gomez, Henry (July 5, 2021). "Biden endorses Allison Russo in special congressional election in Ohio". NBC News.

[38] Reutter, Justin (November 1, 2021). "Democratic challenger hopes to flip 15th Congressional District". Chillicothe Gazette.

[39] "this OPEN seat in Ohio is the only red-to-blue pickup opportunity of 2021". Archive of Political Emails. May 11, 2021.

[40] "EMILY's List Endorses Allison Russo for Congress". EMILY's List. August 10, 2021. Retrieved October 26, 2021.

[41] "LCV ACTION FUND ENDORSES SHONTEL BROWN AND ALLISON RUSSO FOR CONGRESS". League of Conservation Voters. September 9, 2021. Retrieved October 26, 2021.

[42] "Ohio Special Congressional Election Results". The New York Times.

[1]

[2]

[3]

[4]

[5]

[6]

[7]

[8]

[9]

[10]

[11]

[12]

[13]

[14]

[15]

[16]

[17]

[18]

[a]

[A]

[19]

[20]

[21]

[22]

[23]

[24]

[25]

[26]

[27]

[28]

[29]

[30]

[31]

[32]

[33]

[34]

[35]

[36]

[37]

[38]

[39]

[40]

v t (2020 ←) 2021 United States elections (→ 2022)
U.S. Senate	Georgia Georgia (special)
U.S. House	Louisiana 2nd sp 5th sp New Mexico 1st sp Ohio 11th sp 15th sp Texas 6th sp
Governors	California (recall) New Jersey Virginia Lt. Gov
Attorneys general	Virginia
State legislatures	Michigan Senate New Jersey Assembly Senate Virginia House
Mayors	Albany, NY Albuquerque, NM Alexandria, VA Allentown, PA Anchorage, AK Arlington, TX Atlanta, GA Birmingham, AL Boston, MA Buffalo, NY Burlington, VT Cincinnati, OH Cleveland, OH Detroit, MI Durham, NC Fort Worth, TX Harrisburg, PA Jackson, MS Kansas City, KS Lancaster, PA Lansing, MI Manchester, NH Miami, FL Minneapolis, MN Mobile, AL New Haven, CT New Orleans, LA New York, NY North Miami, FL Omaha, NE Pittsburgh, PA Rochester, NY Saint Paul, MN San Antonio, TX Seattle, WA Springfield, MO St. Louis, MO St. Petersburg, FL Stamford, CT Syracuse, NY Toledo, OH Worcester, MA
Local	Boston, MA Cleveland, OH Dallas, TX Minneapolis, MN New York, NY Borough presidents Comptroller Council Public Advocate New York County, NY Plano, TX Seattle, WA City Attorney Council
States and territories	Alabama Alaska California Connecticut Florida Georgia Louisiana Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Nebraska New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York Ohio Pennsylvania Texas Vermont Virginia Wisconsin