2020–21 United States Senate special election in Georgia

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Not to be confused with 2020 Georgia State Senate election.
For the other Senate election in Georgia, see 2020–21 United States Senate election in Georgia.

2020–21 United States Senate special election in Georgia
← 2016 November 3, 2020 (first round)
January 5, 2021 (runoff)		 2022 →
Turnout65.3% Increase First round 59.7% Decrease Runoff
  Raphael Warnock official photo (cropped).jpg Kelly Loeffler (cropped).jpg
Candidate Raphael Warnock Kelly Loeffler
Party Democratic Republican
First round 1,617,035
32.9% 		1,273,214
25.9%
Runoff 2,289,113
51.0% 		2,195,841
49.0%
  Doug Collins, Official portrait, 113th Congress (cropped).jpg DeborahJackson2.png
Candidate Doug Collins Deborah Jackson
Party Republican Democratic
First round 980,454
20.0% 		324,118
6.6%
Runoff Eliminated Eliminated
2020 United States Senate special election in Georgia results map by county.svg
2020 United States Senate special runoff election in Georgia results map by county.svg
Map key
Warnock:      20–30%      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Loeffler:      20–30%      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      90–100%
Collins:      20–30%      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%
U.S. senator before election

Kelly Loeffler
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Raphael Warnock
Democratic

Elections in Georgia
Federal government
State government
Ballot measures
Atlanta
Savannah
  • v
  • t

The 2020–21 United States Senate special election in Georgia was held on November 3, 2020 and on January 5, 2021 (as a runoff), to elect the Class III member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Georgia. Democrat Raphael Warnock defeated appointed incumbent Republican Kelly Loeffler. The first round of the election was held on November 3, 2020, however, no candidate received a majority of the vote, so the top two candidates—Warnock and Loeffler—advanced to a runoff on January 5, 2021.

The election arose from the resignation of Republican Class III Senator Johnny Isakson in December 2019. Georgia Governor Brian Kemp appointed Loeffler to serve as Isakson's interim replacement on January 6, 2020. Because of this, Warnock's term will conclude on January 3, 2023, and he will have the option to run for reelection to a full term in 2022.

In accordance with Georgia law, no primary election took place for the special election; all candidates, regardless of party, were placed on the same ballot (known as a nonpartisan blanket primary), and the election was held on November 3, 2020. Warnock received the most votes with 32.9%, and Loeffler came in second with 25.9%. As no candidate received more than 50% of the vote, the top two candidates advanced to a runoff election on January 5, 2021.[1]

The runoff was held concurrently with the regular Georgia Class II Senate election, in which Democrat Jon Ossoff defeated incumbent Republican David Perdue, also in a runoff on January 5. Following the November 3, 2020 Senate elections, Republicans held 50 Senate seats and the Democratic caucus—consisting of 46 registered Democrats and two allied independents—held 48. Because of this, the two Georgia runoffs determined the balance of the United States Senate under the incoming Biden administration. Winning both races gave the Democratic caucus 50 Senate seats, an effective majority with Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris casting tie-breaking votes. The extraordinarily high political stakes caused the races to attract significant attention nationwide and globally.

Major media outlets, including Decision Desk HQ, the Associated Press, The New York Times, and NBC News, called the election for Warnock in the early hours of January 6, just minutes after he apparently declared victory. Though Loeffler vowed to challenge the results after she returned from the electoral vote certification in Washington,[2] she conceded on January 7.[3] Ossoff and Warnock became the first Democrats to be elected to the U.S. Senate from Georgia since Zell Miller in the 2000 special election. Warnock is the first African-American senator from Georgia, as well as the first African-American Democrat from the South elected to the Senate.[4] Hours later, Ossoff was declared the winner in the regular Senate election.[5][6] The two elections mark the first time since the 1994 United States Senate election in Tennessee and the concurrent special election that both Senate seats in a state have flipped from one party to the other in a single election cycle.

The election results were certified on January 19, 2021, with the senators-elect taking office on January 20.[7][8][9]

Background[]

On August 28, 2019, Isakson announced that he would resign from the Senate effective December 31 due to his deteriorating health.[10] This triggered a special election to fill the remainder of his term. On September 17, Georgia Governor Brian Kemp launched a website inviting Georgia citizens to submit their résumés in order to be considered for appointment.[11] President Donald Trump advocated the appointment of Representative Doug Collins.[12] Kemp appointed Loeffler to fill the seat until the 2020 special election; she took office on January 6, 2020.[13]

Candidates[]

Democratic Party[]

Despite the large number of candidates in the special election, by October 4, 2020, the Democratic Party had largely consolidated around Warnock's candidacy and had pressured other Democratic candidates, such as Matt Lieberman, to drop out to avoid vote-splitting.[14]

While she had not been treated as a major contender, being largely ignored by pollsters, Deborah Jackson received 6.6% of the vote in the initial round of the election, being the second-best performing Democrat, and outperformed fellow Democrats such Matt Lieberman and Ed Tarver, who pollsters had paid attention to. Al Jazeera attributed her performance, in part, to her being the first Democrat listed in the order candidates appeared on the on the ballot and her being a familiar figure in the Democratic stronghold of DeKalb County.[15]

Advanced to runoff[]

  • Raphael Warnock, senior pastor of Ebenezer Baptist Church[16]

Eliminated[]

  • Deborah Jackson, attorney and former mayor of Lithonia[17]
  • Jamesia James, businesswoman and U.S. Air Force veteran[17]
  • Tamara Johnson-Shealey, businesswoman and frequent candidate[17]
  • Matt Lieberman, businessman, activist, and son of Joe Lieberman, former U.S. Senator from Connecticut[18]
  • Joy Felicia Slade, physician[17]
  • Ed Tarver, former United States Attorney for the Southern District of Georgia and former state senator[19][20]
  • Richard Dien Winfield, professor and candidate for Georgia's 10th congressional district in 2018[21]

Declined[]

  • Stacey Abrams, nominee for Governor of Georgia in 2018 and former minority leader of the Georgia House of Representatives (endorsed Raphael Warnock)[22]
  • Sherry Boston, DeKalb County District Attorney[22][23]
  • Jason Carter, nominee for Governor of Georgia in 2014, former state senator, and grandson of former U.S. President Jimmy Carter (endorsed Raphael Warnock)[24]
  • Stacey Evans, candidate for Governor of Georgia in 2018 and former state representative (running for state house)[25]
  • Jen Jordan, state senator[26][27]
  • Lucy McBath, incumbent U.S. Representative for Georgia's 6th congressional district (running for re-election)[28]
  • Michelle Nunn, CEO of CARE USA and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2014; daughter of former Senator Sam Nunn.[29]
  • Jon Ossoff, documentary filmmaker and nominee for Georgia's 6th congressional district in 2017 (successfully ran for Class 2 seat)[30]
  • Mike Thurmond, DeKalb County chief executive, former Labor Commissioner of Georgia, and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2010[26]
  • Teresa Tomlinson, former mayor of Columbus (ran in the Democratic primary for the Class 2 seat)[31][32]
  • Nikema Williams, state senator and Chair of the Georgia Democratic Party[28]
  • Sally Yates, former United States Deputy Attorney General[33][34]

Endorsements[]

hide
Matt Lieberman
U.S. Senators
  • Joe Lieberman, U.S. Senator from Connecticut (1989-2013), Democratic nominee for Vice President in 2000, lawyer at Kasowitz Benson Torres, Lieberman's father (Independent)[35]
Individuals
  • Hadassah Lieberman, author, Lieberman's stepmother[35]
hide
Raphael Warnock
U.S. Presidents
  • Jimmy Carter, 39th President of the United States (1977-1981), Governor of Georgia (1971-1975)[36]
  • Barack Obama, 44th President of the United States (2009-2017), U.S. Senator from Illinois (2005-2008)[37]
  • Joe Biden, 46th President of the United States (2021-present), 47th Vice President of the United States (2009–2017), U.S. Senator from Delaware (1973–2009),[38]
U.S. Vice President
  • Kamala Harris, 49th Vice President of the United States, U.S. Senator from California (2017-2021)[39]
U.S. Cabinet Members
  • Andrew Young, former mayor of Atlanta (1982–1990), former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations (1977–1979), and U.S. Representative for GA-05 (1973–1977)[40]
U.S. Senators
  • Tammy Baldwin, U.S. Senator (WI)[41]
  • Michael Bennet, U.S. Senator (CO)[41]
  • Cory Booker, U.S. Senator (NJ)[42]
  • Sherrod Brown, U.S. Senator (OH)[42]
  • Bob Casey, U.S. Senator (PA)[41]
  • Maria Cantwell, U.S. Senator (WA)[41]
  • Max Cleland, former U.S. Senator (GA) (1997-2003), former Georgia Secretary of State (1983-96), and former Administrator of Veterans Affairs (1977-81)[43]
  • Chris Coons, U.S. Senator (DE)[41]
  • Catherine Cortez Masto, U.S. Senator (NV)[41]
  • Tammy Duckworth, U.S. Senator (IL)[41]
  • Dick Durbin, U.S. Senator (IL)[41]
  • Wyche Fowler, former U.S. Senator (GA) and former U.S. Ambassador to Saudi Arabia[44]
  • Kirsten Gillibrand, U.S. Senator (NY)[41]
  • Maggie Hassan, U.S. Senator (NH)[41]
  • Martin Heinrich, U.S. Senator (NM)[41]
  • Tim Kaine, U.S. Senator (VA)[41]
  • Amy Klobuchar, U.S. Senator (MN)[41]
  • Chris Murphy, U.S. Senator (CT)[42]
  • Ed Markey, U.S. Senator (MA)[41]
  • Jeff Merkley, U.S. Senator (OR)[41]
  • Patty Murray, U.S. Senator (WA)[41]
  • Jack Reed, U.S. Senator (RI)[41]
  • Bernie Sanders, U.S. Senator (VT)[45]
  • Jeanne Shaheen, U.S. Senator (NH)[41]
  • Debbie Stabenow, U.S. Senator (MI)[41]
  • Brian Schatz, U.S. Senator (HI)[41]
  • Tina Smith, U.S. Senator (MN)[41]
  • Tom Udall, U.S. Senator (NM)[41]
  • Mark Warner, U.S. Senator (VA)[41]
  • Elizabeth Warren, U.S. Senator (MA)[46]
  • Sheldon Whitehouse, U.S. Senator (RI)[41]
  • Ron Wyden, U.S. Senator (OR)[41]
U.S. Representatives
  • Sanford Bishop, U.S. Representative for GA-02[47]
  • Jim Clyburn, U.S. Representative for SC-06 and House Majority Whip[48]
  • Hank Johnson, U.S. Representative for GA-04[41]
  • John Lewis, U.S. Representative for GA-05 (Deceased)[49]
  • Ayanna Pressley, U.S. Representative for MA-07[41]
  • David Scott, U.S. Representative for GA-13[47]
State Legislators
  • Stacey Abrams, nominee for Governor of Georgia in 2018 and former minority leader of the Georgia House of Representatives[50]
  • Erick Allen, State Representative[51]
  • Debra Bazemore, State Representative[51]
  • William Boddie, State Representative and House Minority Whip[51]
  • Roger Bruce, State Representative[51]
  • Park Cannon, State Representative[51]
  • Jason Carter, nominee for Governor of Georgia in 2014, former State Senator, and grandson of former U.S. President Jimmy Carter[24]
  • Karla Drenner, State Representative[41]
  • David Dreyer, State Representative[24]
  • Becky Evans, State Representative[51]
  • Stacey Evans, former State Representative[43]
  • Pat Gardner, State Representative[51]
  • Steve Henson, State Senator and Senate Minority Leader[51]
  • El-Mahdi Holly, State Representative[51]
  • Jen Jordan, State Senator[51]
  • Pedro Marin, State Representative[51]
  • Dewey McClain, State Representative[51]
  • Donna McLeod, State Representative[51]
  • Bee Nguyen, State Representative[24]
  • Mary Margaret Oliver, State Representative and former State Senator[51]
  • Nan Orrock, State Senator and former State Representative[41]
  • Elena Parent, State Senator[24]
  • Sam Park, State Representative[51]
  • Renitta Shannon, State Representative[24]
  • Horacena Tate, State Senator[51]
  • Mable Thomas, State Representative[51]
  • Bob Trammell, State Representative and House Minority Leader[43]
Local officials
Organizations
Individuals

Republican Party[]

Advanced to runoff[]

  • Kelly Loeffler, incumbent U.S. Senator

Eliminated[]

  • Doug Collins, incumbent U.S. Representative for Georgia's 9th congressional district[77]
  • Derrick Grayson, minister, network engineer, software developer, perennial candidate, U.S. Navy veteran[17]
  • Annette Davis Jackson, businesswoman and candidate for Georgia State Senate in 2016[17]
  • Kandiss Taylor, student services coordinator for Appling County Board of Education[78]

Withdrawn[]

  • Ervan Katari Miller, perennial candidate[79][80]
  • Wayne Johnson, former chief operating officer of the Office of Federal Student Aid[81] (remained on ballot)

Declined[]

hide
Kelly Loeffler
U.S. President
  • Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States
U.S. Vice President
  • Mike Pence, 48th Vice President of the United States
Federal officials
  • Bob Barr, former U.S. Representative (GA-07)[95]
  • Marsha Blackburn, U.S. Senator from Tennessee[96]
  • Tom Cotton, U.S. Senator from Arkansas[97]
  • Joni Ernst, U.S. Senator from Iowa[98]
  • Deb Fischer, U.S. Senator from Nebraska[99]
  • Newt Gingrich, 2012 Republican presidential candidate and former House Speaker (1995-1999) and U.S. Representative (GA-06) (1979-1999)[100]
  • Richard Grenell, former United States Ambassador to Germany[101]
  • Nikki Haley, former United States Ambassador to the United Nations[95]
  • Mitch McConnell, U.S. Senator (R-KY) and Senate Majority Leader[102][103]
  • Tom Price, former United States Secretary of Health and Human Services[95]
  • Marco Rubio, U.S. Senator from Florida[104]
  • Tim Scott, U.S. Senator from South Carolina[105]
  • Elise Stefanik, U.S. Representative (NY-21)[106]
State officials
Organizations
Individuals
  • Marjorie Taylor Greene, 2020 Republican nominee for Georgia's 14th congressional district[120]
  • Ivanka Trump, daughter of, and senior advisor to, U.S. President Donald Trump[citation needed][121][failed verification]
  • Herschel Walker, Heisman Trophy winner and former professional football player[122]
hide
Doug Collins
Federal officials
  • Andy Biggs, U.S. Representative (AZ-05)[123]
  • Drew Ferguson, U.S. Representative (GA-03)[124]
  • Michael Flynn, former United States National Security Advisor[125]
  • Karen Handel, former U.S. Representative (GA-06) (2017-2019)[126]
  • Devin Nunes, U.S. Representative (CA-22)[127]
State officials
  • Gary Black, state Agriculture Commissioner[128]
  • Nathan Deal, Governor of Georgia (2011-2019)[129]
  • Mike Huckabee, 2008 and 2016 Republican presidential candidate and former Governor of Arkansas (1996-2007)[130]
  • David Ralston, state representative and state House speaker[112]
Local officials
  • Rudy Giuliani, advisor to U.S. President Donald Trump, 2008 Republican presidential candidate, former Mayor of New York (1994-2001), and Republican candidate in the 2000 U.S. Senate election in New York[131]
Individuals
  • Roger Stone, political consultant[132]
  • Bernard Kerik, former New York City Police Commissioner.
Organizations

Libertarian Party[]

Declared[]

Green Party[]

Declared[]

  • John "Green" Fortuin[80]

Independents[]

Declared[]

  • Al Bartell, businessman, former Republican and Vietnam-era Air Force veteran[137][138][139]
  • Allen Buckley, attorney, accountant, Libertarian nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2004, 2008, 2016 and nominee for Lieutenant Governor of Georgia in 2006
  • Michael Todd Greene[140][80]
  • Rod Mack (as a write-in candidate), member of the City of Hapeville Board of Appeals and candidate in the 2018 Georgia gubernatorial election[80]
  • Valencia Stovall, state representative[80]

Special election[]

Polling[]

Jungle primary[]

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Doug
Collins (R) 		Matt
Lieberman (D) 		Kelly
Loeffler (R) 		Ed
Tarver (D) 		Raphael
Warnock (D) 		Other Undecided
Landmark Communications November 1, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 24% 5% 27% 1% 38% 1%[b] 3%
Data for Progress October 27 – November 1, 2020 1,036 (LV) ± 3% 21% 8% 26% 3% 41% 1%[c] –
Emerson College October 29–31, 2020 749 (LV) ± 3.5% 27%[d] 8% 24% 2% 38% 2%[e] –
Landmark Communications October 28, 2020 750 (LV) ± 3.6% 23% 9% 25% 1% 37% 2%[f] 3%
Public Policy Polling October 27–28, 2020 661 (V) – 19% 2% 27% 0% 46% 2%[e] 4%
Monmouth University October 23–27, 2020 504 (RV) ± 4.4% 18% 4% 21% 3% 41% 7%[g] 6%
504 (LV)[h] 19% – 22% – 41% – –
504 (LV)[i] 20% – 22% – 42% – –
Civiqs/Daily Kos October 23–26, 2020 1,041 (LV) ± 3.3% 23% 2% 22% 1% 48% 2%[e] 2%
University of Georgia October 14–23, 2020 1,145 (LV) ± 4% 21% 4% 20% 1% 34% 5%[j] 14%
Landmark Communications October 21, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 27% – 24% – 33% – –
Citizen Data October 17–20, 2020 1,000 (LV) ± 3% 19% 4% 23% 1% 41% 3% 10%
Emerson College October 17–19, 2020 506 (LV) ± 4.3% 27% 12% 20% 2% 27% 2%[e] 12%
Siena College/NYT Upshot October 13–19, 2020 759 (LV) ± 4.1% 17% 7% 23% 2% 32% 1%[k] 18%[l]
Opinion Insight (R)[A] October 12–15, 2020 801 (LV) ± 3.46% 18%[d] 3% 19% 1% 31% 14%[m] 18%[l]
Quinnipiac University October 8–12, 2020 1,040 (LV) ± 3.0% 22% 5% 20% 2% 41% 0%[n] 9%
SurveyUSA October 8–12, 2020 677 (LV) ± 5.7% 20% 8% 26% 3% 30% 2%[o] 12%
Data for Progress October 8–11, 2020 782 (LV) ± 3.5% 22% 10% 22% – 30% 17%[p] –
Public Policy Polling October 8–9, 2020 528 (V) ± 4.3% 22% 3% 24% 0% 41% 2%[e] 8%
Landmark Communications October 7, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 23% 3% 26% 0% 36% 4%[q] 8%
University of Georgia September 27 – October 6, 2020 1,106 (LV) ± 2.9% 21% 3% 22% 4% 28% 3%[r] 19%
Civiqs/Daily Kos September 26–29, 2020 969 (LV) ± 3.5% 25% 5% 21% 2% 38% 1%[s] 7%
Hart Research Associates (D)[B] September 24–27, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 21% 8%[t] 28% 3% 28% – –
Quinnipiac University September 23–27, 2020 1,125 (LV) ± 2.9% 22% 9% 23% 4% 31% 0%[n] 12%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies September 23–26, 2020 789 (LV) ± 3.49% 16% 16% 25% – 26% 3%[u] 14%
Monmouth University September 17–21, 2020 402 (RV) ± 4.9% 22% 11% 23% 4% 21% 6%[v] 13%
402 (LV)[h] 23% 11% 23% 3% 23% 5%[w] 12%
402 (LV)[i] 24% 9% 23% 2% 25% 4%[x] 12%
Siena College/NYT Upshot September 16–21, 2020 523 (LV) ± 4.9% 19% 7% 23% 4% 19% 1%[k] 27%[l]
University of Georgia September 11–20, 2020 1,150 (LV) ± 4.0% 21% 11% 24% 5% 20% 4%[y] 16%
Data For Progress (D) September 14–19, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 22% 14% 21% – 26% – 17%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies September 12–17, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.46% 19% 15% 26% – 21% 5%[z] 15%
GBAO Strategies (D)[C] September 14–16, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 19% 11% 29% 5% 25% – –
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates[D] August 30 – September 5, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 20% 10% 24% 7% 19% 1%[aa] 19%
Opinion Insight (R)[A] August 30 – September 2, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.46% 20%[d] 4% 17% 1% 17% 13%[ab] 27%
HarrisX (D)[E] August 20–30, 2020 1,616 (RV) ± 2.4% 21% 13% 26% 7% 16% 18%[ac] –
SurveyUSA August 6–8, 2020 623 (LV) ± 5.3% 17% 13% 26% 3% 17% 2%[o] 21%
HIT Strategies (D)[F] July 23–31, 2020 400 (RV) ± 4.9% 18% 14% 22% 6% 14% 1%[ad] 23%
Monmouth University July 23–27, 2020 402 (RV) ± 4.9% 20% 14% 26% 5% 9% 8%[ae] 18%
402 (LV)[h] 21% 14% 26% 5% 10% 6%[af] 17%
402 (LV)[i] 22% 13% 26% 4% 10% 6%[af] 19%
Spry Strategies (R)[G] July 11–16, 2020 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 20% 23% 19% 9% – – 20%
GBAO Strategies (D)[C] July 6–9, 2020 600 (LV) – 26% 19% 21% 9% 16% – –
Battleground Connect (R)[H] July 6–8, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 26% 15% 17% 5% 10% 2%[e] 26%
Gravis Marketing (R)[I] July 2, 2020 513 (LV) ± 4.3% 26% 11% 24% 9% 18% – 12%
Public Policy Polling (D)[J] June 25–26, 2020 734 (RV) ± 3.6% 23% 11% 21% 3% 20% – 22%
MRG (D)[K] June 18–23, 2020 1,259 (LV) – 27% 13% 21% – 23% 5%[ag] 12%
Civiqs/Daily Kos May 16–18, 2020 1,339 (RV) ± 3.1% 34% 14% 12% 6% 18% 4%[ah] 12%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) May 4–7, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.38% 19% 17% 18% – 9% 11%[ai] 26%
Cygnal (R)[L] April 25–27, 2020 591 (LV) ± 4.0% 29% 12% 11% 4% 11% 2%[aj] 31%
Battleground Connect (R)[H] March 31 – April 1, 2020 1,035 (LV) ± 3.01% 36% 11% 13% 3% 16% 4%[ak] 17%
Battleground Connect (R)[H] March 24, 2020 1,025 (LV)[t] – 34% 18% 14% 5% 13% – 15%
Battleground Connect (R)[H] March 21, 2020 1,025 (LV)[t] – 32% 19% 15% 5% 12% – 18%
Battleground Connect (R)[H] March 12, 2020 1,025 (LV)[t] – 30% 18% 19% 5% 10% – 18%
Battleground Connect (R)[H] March 7, 2020 1,025 (LV)[t] – 29% 16% 20% 5% 12% – 18%
University of Georgia February 24 – March 2, 2020 1,117 (LV) ± 2.9% 21% 11% 19% 4% 6% 8%[al] 31%
Battleground Connect (R)[H] February 26–27, 2020 1,050 (LV) ± 3.0% 28% 5% 20% 3% 13% – 31%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[M] February 17–20, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 19% 18% 20% –[am] – 7%[an] 21%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[H] December 16–18, 2019 600 (LV) – 32% 42% 11% – — — 16%

Predictions[]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[141] Tossup October 29, 2020
Inside Elections[142] Tilt R October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[143] Tossup November 2, 2020
Daily Kos[144] Tossup October 30, 2020
Politico[145] Lean R November 2, 2020
RCP[146] Lean R October 23, 2020
DDHQ[147] Tossup November 3, 2020
FiveThirtyEight[148] Lean D (flip) November 2, 2020
Economist[149] Tossup November 2, 2020

Results[]

Since no candidate won a majority of the vote on November 3, the top two finishers—Loeffler and Warnock—advanced to a January 5, 2021 runoff election.[150][151]

2020–21 United States Senate special election in Georgia[152]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Raphael Warnock 1,617,035 32.9
Republican Kelly Loeffler (incumbent) 1,273,214 25.9
Republican Doug Collins 980,454 20.0
Democratic Deborah Jackson 324,118 6.6
Democratic Matt Lieberman 136,021 2.8
Democratic Tamara Johnson-Shealey 106,767 2.2
Democratic Jamesia James 94,406 1.9
Republican Derrick Grayson 51,592 1.1
Democratic Joy Felicia Slade 44,945 0.9
Republican Annette Davis Jackson 44,335 0.9
Republican Kandiss Taylor 40,349 0.8
Republican Wayne Johnson (withdrawn) 36,176 0.7
Libertarian Brian Slowinski 35,431 0.7
Democratic Richard Dien Winfield 28,687 0.6
Democratic Ed Tarver 26,333 0.5
Independent Allen Buckley 17,954 0.4
Green John Fortuin 15,293 0.3
Independent Al Bartell 14,640 0.3
Independent Valencia Stovall 13,318 0.3
Independent Michael Todd Greene 13,293 0.2
Total votes 4,914,361 100.0

Runoff[]

The runoff election for Isakson's former seat was on January 5, 2021. The runoff election for the Georgia U.S. Senate seat held by Republican David Perdue was also decided in a January 5 runoff. Before the Georgia runoffs in the 2020 U.S. Senate elections, Republicans held 50 Senate seats and the Democratic caucus held 48.[153] Warnock declared victory on January 6, 2021.[154] If Democrats won the other Georgia runoff held on January 5, their caucus would gain control of the Senate, as the resultant 50–50 tie would be broken by Democratic vice president-elect Kamala Harris. If they lost the second race, Republicans would retain control.[155] The extremely high political stakes caused the races to attract significant attention nationwide.[156][157][158] They were the third and fourth Senate runoff elections held in Georgia since runoffs were first mandated in 1964, after runoffs in 1992[citation needed] and 2008.[159] It was also the third time that both of Georgia's Senate seats have been up for election at the same time, following double-barrel elections in 1914 and 1932.[citation needed] The Associated Press and other major news outlets called the race for Warnock in the early morning hours of January 6.[160] His win was attributed to heavy black voter turnout.[161]

The deadline for registration for the runoff election was December 7.[162] Absentee ballots for the runoff were sent out beginning on November 18, and in-person voting began on December 14.[163][164]

Predictions[]

Source Ranking As of
Inside Elections[165] Tossup December 14, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[166] Tossup January 5, 2021

Polling[]

Aggregate polls[]

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Kelly
Loeffler
Republican 		Raphael
Warnock
Democratic 		Undecided
[ao] 		Margin
270 To Win December 30, 2020 – January 4, 2021 January 4, 2021 47.4% 50.2% 2.4% Warnock +2.8
RealClearPolitics December 14, 2020 – January 4, 2021 January 5, 2021 48.8% 49.3% 1.9% Warnock +0.5
538 November 9, 2020 – January 4, 2021 January 5, 2021 47.2% 49.4% 2.2% Warnock +2.1
Average 47.8% 49.6% 2.2% Warnock +1.8
Poll
source 		Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kelly
Loeffler (R) 		Raphael
Warnock (D) 		Other Undecided
Trafalgar Group January 2–4, 2021 1,056 (LV) ± 2.9% 50% 48% – 2%
AtlasIntel January 2–4, 2021 857 (LV) ± 3% 47% 51% – 2%
InsiderAdvantage January 3, 2021 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 49% 49% – 2%
National Research Inc January 2–3, 2021 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 46% – 9%
University of Nevada Las Vegas Lee Business School December 30, 2020 – January 3, 2021 550 (LV) ± 4% 49% 48% – 3%
Targoz Market Research December 30, 2020 – January 3, 2021 713 (LV) ± 3.7% 49% 51% – 0%
1,342 (RV) 48% 49% – 3%
AtlasIntel December 25, 2020 – January 1, 2021 1,680 (LV) ± 2% 47% 51% – 2%
Gravis Marketing December 29–30, 2020 1,011 (LV) ± 3.1% 47% 49% – 3%
JMC Analytics and Polling December 28–29, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 54% – 1%
Trafalgar Group December 23–27, 2020 1,022 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 50% – 1%
Open Model Project December 21–27, 2020 1,405 (LV) ± 4.7% 50% 46% – 4%
InsiderAdvantage December 21–22, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 49% – 4%
Mellman Group December 18–22, 2020 578 (LV) ± 4.1% 47% 50% – 3%
Reconnect Research/Probolsky Research December 14–22, 2020 1,027 (LV) ± 4% 42% 43% – 15%
SurveyUSA December 16–20, 2020 600 (LV) ± 5.1% 45% 52% – 3%
Trafalgar Group December 14–16, 2020 1,064 (LV) ± 3.0% 52% 46% – 2%
Emerson College December 14–16, 2020 605 (LV) ± 3.9% 51% 48% – 1%
InsiderAdvantage December 14, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 49% 48% – 3%
Wick December 10–14, 2020 1,500 (LV) – 50% 48% – 2%
RMG Research December 8–14, 2020 1,417 (LV) ± 2.6% 48% 49% – 4%
Baris/Peach State Battleground Poll December 4–11, 2020 1,008 (LV) ± 3.1% 43% 48% – 9%
Trafalgar Group December 8–10, 2020 1,018 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 47% – 3%
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates November 30 – December 4, 2020 1,250 (LV) ± 3.2% 46% 47% – 7%
Trafalgar Group December 1–3, 2020 1,083 (LV) ± 2.9% 50% 45% – 5%
SurveyUSA November 27–30, 2020 583 (LV) ± 5.2% 45% 52% – 2%
RMG Research November 19–24, 2020 1,377 (LV) ± 2.6% 46% 48% – 6%
Data for Progress November 15–20, 2020 1,476 (LV) ± 2.6% 47% 50% – 4%
InsiderAdvantage November 16, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 49% – 3%
VCreek/AMG (R)[N] November 10, 2020 300 (LV) ± 5.6% 50% 46% – 5%
Remington Research Group November 8–9, 2020 1,450 (LV) ± 2.6% 49% 48% – 3%
Monmouth University October 23–27, 2020 504 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 51% – –
Civiqs/Daily Kos October 23–26, 2020 1,041 (LV) ± 3.4% 37% 51% 9%[ap] 2%
Emerson College October 17–19, 2020 506 (LV) ± 4.3% 42% 47% – 12%
Siena College/NYT Upshot October 13–19, 2020 759 (LV) ± 4.1% 41% 45% – 14%[l]
Quinnipiac University October 8–12, 2020 1,040 (LV) ± 3.0% 44% 52% 0%[n] 4%
Data for Progress October 8–11, 2020 782 (LV) ± 3.5% 40% 44% – 16%
Civiqs/Daily Kos September 26–29, 2020 969 (LV) ± 3.5% 39% 49% 8%[aq] 4%
Gravis Marketing (R)[I] July 2, 2020 513 (LV) ± 4.3% 48% 37% – 15%
Public Policy Polling (D)[J] June 25–26, 2020 734 (RV) ± 3.6% 40% 43% – 17%
Civiqs/Daily Kos May 16–18, 2020 1,339 (RV) ± 3.1% 32% 45% 18%[ar] 6%
Battleground Connect (R)[H] March 31 – April 1, 2020 1,035 (LV) ± 3.0% 40% 41% – 19%
The Progress Campaign (D) March 12–21, 2020 3,042 (RV) ± 4.5% 38% 38% – 24%

Results[]

2021 United States Senate special election in Georgia runoffs[167]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Raphael Warnock 2,289,113 51.0% +10.0%
Republican Kelly Loeffler (incumbent) 2,195,841 49.0% -5.8%
Total votes 4,484,954 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

By county[]

County[168] Raphael Warnock
Democratic 		Kelly Loeffler
Republican 		Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # %
Appling 1,596 21.91% 5,690 78.09% -4,094 -56.18% 7,286
Atkinson 722 27.27% 1,926 72.73% -1,204 -45.46% 2,648
Bacon 559 13.53% 3,572 86.47% -3,013 -72.94% 4,131
Baker 625 43.40% 815 56.60% -190 -13.20% 1,440
Baldwin 8,569 52.03% 7,899 47.97% 670 4.06% 16,468
Banks 860 11.55% 6,586 88.45% -6,003 -76.90% 7,446
Barrow 9,417 29.36% 22,660 70.64% -13,243 -41.28% 32,077
Bartow 10,928 25.43% 32,049 74.57% -21,121 -49.14% 42,977
Ben Hill 2,193 38.30% 3,533 61.70% -1,340 -23.32% 5,726
Berrien 1,145 17.13% 5,539 82.87% -4,394 -65.74% 6,684
Bibb 39,972 62.92% 23,555 37.08% 16,417 25.84% 63,527
Bleckley 1,214 23.75% 3,898 76.25% -2,684 -52.50% 5,112
Brantley 613 9.27% 5,999 90.73% -5,386 -81.46% 6,612
Brooks 2,455 39.49% 3,761 60.51% -1,306 -21.02% 6,216
Bryan 6,009 32.30% 12,596 67.70% -6,587 -35.40% 18,605
Bulloch 9,848 37.68% 16,287 62.32% -6,439 -24.64% 26,135
Burke 4,695 49.43% 4,804 50.57% -109 -1.14% 9,499
Butts 3,026 29.64% 7,183 70.36% -4,157 -40.72% 10,209
Calhoun 1,206 59.35% 826 40.65% 380 18.70% 2,032
Camden 6,807 34.26% 13,063 65.74% -6,256 -31.49% 19,870
Candler 1,131 28.87% 2,787 71.13% -1,656 -42.26% 3,918
Carroll 14,819 31.42% 32,338 68.58% -17,519 -37.16% 47,157
Catoosa 5,985 21.55% 21,792 78.45% -15,807 -56.90% 27,777
Charlton 952 24.42% 2,947 75.58% -1,995 -51.16% 3,899
Chatham 72,550 59.83% 48,707 40.17% 23,843 19.66% 121,257
Chattahoochee 601 45.50% 720 54.50% -119 -9.00% 1,321
Chattooga 1,686 20.47% 6,550 79.53% -4,864 -59.06% 8,236
Cherokee 38,362 30.01% 89,480 69.99% -51,118 -39.98% 127,842
Clarke 33,187 71.84% 13,009 28.16% 20,178 43.68% 46,196
Clay 727 55.50% 583 44.50% 144 11.00% 1,310
Clayton 91,189 88.57% 11,765 11.43% 79,424 77.14% 102,954
Clinch 616 25.09% 1,839 74.91% -1,223 -49.82% 2,455
Cobb 203,876 56.85% 154,714 43.15% 49,162 13.70% 358,590
Coffee 4,082 30.88% 9,137 69.12% -5,055 -38.24% 13,129
Colquitt 3,727 26.51% 10,330 73.49% -6,603 -46.98% 14,057
Columbia 26,545 36.80% 45,588 63.20% -19,043 -26.40% 72,133
Cook 1,895 30.54% 4,310 69.46% -2,415 -38.92% 6,205
Coweta 21,825 32.44% 45,462 67.56% -23,637 -35.12% 67,287
Crawford 1,502 27.96% 3,869 72.04% -2,367 -44.08% 5,371
Crisp 2,702 37.85% 4,436 62.15% -1,734 -24.30% 7,138
Dade 1,111 17.53% 5,227 82.47% -4,116 -64.94% 6,338
Dawson 2,274 15.81% 12,113 84.19% -9,839 -68.38% 14,387
Decatur 4,121 41.02% 5,926 58.98% -1,805 -17.78% 10,047
DeKalb 293,902 84.12% 55,479 15.88% 238,423 68.24% 349,381
Dodge 2,021 28.14% 5,160 71.86% -3,139 -43.72% 7,181
Dooly 1,812 48.40% 1,932 51.60% -120 -3.20% 3,744
Dougherty 22,793 70.98% 9,320 29.02% 13,473 41.96% 32,113
Douglas 40,630 65.14% 21,743 34.86% 18,887 30.28% 62,373
Early 2,172 47.75% 2,377 52.25% -205 -4.50% 4,549
Echols 128 10.79% 1,058 89.21% -930 -78.42% 1,186
Effingham 7,137 25.66% 20,682 74.34% -13,545 -48.68% 27,819
Elbert 2,482 30.97% 5,531 69.03% -3,049 -38.06% 8,013
Emanuel 2,569 30.74% 5,787 69.26% -3,218 -38.52% 8,356
Evans 1,201 32.11% 2,539 67.89% -1,338 -35.78% 3,740
Fannin 2,436 18.13% 11,004 81.88% -8,568 -63.75% 13,440
Fayette 31,297 46.44% 36,094 53.56% -4,167 -7.12% 67,391
Floyd 10,834 30.27% 24,959 69.73% -14,125 -39.46% 35,793
Forsyth 37,687 32.73% 77,451 67.27% -39,764 -34.54% 115,138
Franklin 1,345 14.64% 7,840 85.36% -6,495 -70.72% 9,185
Fulton 354,552 72.54% 134,191 27.46% 220,361 45.08% 488,743
Gilmer 2,697 18.19% 12,132 81.81% -9,435 -63.62% 14,829
Glascock 130 9.53% 1,234 90.47% -1,104 -80.94% 1,364
Glynn 13,981 37.35% 23,448 62.65% -9,467 -25.30% 37,429
Gordon 3,929 19.30% 16,425 80.70% -12,496 -61.40% 20,354
Grady 3,102 33.25% 6,226 66.75% -3,124 -33.50% 9,328
Greene 3,758 35.41% 6,855 64.59% -3,097 -29.18% 11,247
Gwinnett 224,197 60.63% 145,597 39.37% 78,600 21.26% 369,794
Habersham 3,243 18.00% 14,776 82.00% -11,533 -64.00% 18,019
Hall 22,296 28.22% 56,718 71.78% -34,422 -43.56% 79,014
Hancock 2,780 72.43% 1,058 27.57% 1,722 43.84% 3,838
Haralson 1,626 13.37% 10,533 86.63% -8,907 -73.26% 12,159
Harris 5,034 27.52% 13,258 72.48% -8,224 -44.96% 18,292
Hart 2,847 25.42% 8,354 74.58% -5,507 -49.16% 11,201
Heard 801 17.12% 3,877 82.88% -3,076 -65.76% 4,678
Henry 68,576 62.68% 40,824 37.32% 27,752 25.36% 109,400
Houston 29,749 44.81% 36,644 55.19% -6,895 -10.38% 66,393
Irwin 885 24.47% 2,732 75.53% -1,847 -51.06% 3,617
Jackson 6,925 21.25% 25,658 78.75% -18,733 -57.50% 32,583
Jasper 1,683 24.74% 5,120 75.26% -3,437 -50.52% 6,803
Jeff Davis 937 18.44% 4,143 81.56% -3,206 -63.12% 5,080
Jefferson 3,767 54.39% 3,159 45.61% 608 8.78% 6,926
Jenkins 1,169 37.54% 1,945 62.46% -776 -24.92% 3,114
Johnson 1,047 29.28% 2,529 70.72% -1,482 -41.44% 3,576
Jones 4,534 34.00% 8,803 66.00% -4,269 -32.00% 13,337
Lamar 2,428 30.40% 5,558 69.60% -3,130 -39.20% 7,986
Lanier 910 29.97% 2,126 70.03% -1,216 -40.06% 3,036
Laurens 7,435 36.73% 12,806 63.27% -5,371 -26.54% 20,241
Lee 4,240 28.46% 10,657 71.54% -6,417 -43.08% 14,897
Liberty 11,875 64.78% 6,457 35.22% 5,418 29.56% 18,332
Lincoln 1,317 31.21% 2,903 68.79% -1,586 -37.58% 4,220
Long 1,803 38.87% 2,835 61.13% -1,032 -22.26% 4,638
Lowndes 17,382 43.63% 22,455 56.37% -5,073 -12.74% 39,837
Lumpkin 2,868 20.94% 10,831 79.06% -7,963 -58.12% 13,699
Macon 2,685 62.79% 1,591 37.21% 1,094 25.58% 4,276
Madison 3,102 23.49% 10,101 76.51% -6,999 -53.02% 13,203
Marion 1,217 37.90% 1,994 62.10% -777 -24.20% 3,211
McDuffie 3,752 40.64% 5,480 59.36% -1,728 -18.72% 9,232
McIntosh 2,417 40.64% 3,531 59.36% -1,114 -18.72% 5,948
Meriwether 4,036 41.00% 5,808 59.00% -1,772 -19.00% 9,844
Miller 651 26.53% 1,803 73.47% -1,152 -46.94% 2,454
Mitchell 3,569 45.36% 4,300 54.64% -731 -9.28% 7,869
Monroe 4,058 28.75% 10,057 71.25% -5,999 -42.50% 14,115
Montgomery 896 25.41% 2,630 74.59% -1,734 -49.18% 3,526
Morgan 3,129 28.91% 7,696 71.09% -4,567 -42.18% 10,825
Murray 2,028 15.61% 10,966 84.39% -8,938 -68.78% 12,994
Muscogee 45,049 62.99% 26,473 37.01% 18,576 25.98% 71,522
Newton 28,324 58.02% 20,493 41.98% 7,831 16.04% 48,817
Oconee 7,496 31.85% 16,041 68.15% -8,545 -36.30% 23,557
Oglethorpe 2,259 31.30% 4,959 68.70% -2,700 -37.40% 7,218
Paulding 27,335 36.96% 46,619 63.04% -19,284 -26.08% 73,954
Peach 5,350 48.41% 5,701 51.59% -351 -3.18% 11,051
Pickens 2,612 17.25% 12,532 82.75% -9,920 -65.50% 15,144
Pierce 947 11.95% 6,980 88.05% -6,033 -76.10% 7,927
Pike 1,391 14.44% 8,241 85.56% -6,850 -71.12% 9,632
Polk 3,325 22.39% 11,525 77.61% -8,200 -55.22% 14,850
Pulaski 1,138 30.92% 2,543 69.08% -1,405 -38.16% 3,681
Putnam 3,448 29.08% 8,291 69.94% -4,843 -40.85% 11,855
Quitman 497 44.94% 604 54.61% -107 -9.67% 1,106
Rabun 1,984 20.74% 7,474 78.11% -5,490 -57.38% 9,568
Randolph 1,671 54.36% 1,391 45.25% 280 9.11% 3,074
Richmond 59,124 67.95% 26,781 30.78% 32,343 37.17% 87,016
Rockdale 31,244 69.92% 13,012 29.12% 18,232 40.80% 44,686
Schley 462 20.31% 1,800 79.12% -1,338 -58.81% 2,275
Screven 2,661 40.15% 3,916 59.08% -1,255 -18.93% 6,628
Seminole 1,254 32.29% 2,611 67.22% -1,357 -34.94% 3,884
Spalding 11,784 39.13% 18,057 59.96% -6,273 -20.83% 30,116
Stephens 2,385 20.07% 9,368 78.82% -6,983 -58.75% 11,885
Stewart 1,182 59.40% 801 40.25% 381 19.15% 1,990
Sumter 6,318 52.00% 5,732 47.18% 586 4.82% 12,150
Talbot 2,114 60.02% 1,392 39.52% 722 20.50% 3,522
Taliaferro 561 60.45% 360 38.79% 201 21.66% 928
Tattnall 2,061 25.19% 6,053 73.97% -3,992 -48.78% 8,183
Taylor 1,387 36.13% 2,418 62.99% -1,031 -26.86% 3,839
Telfair 1,487 34.32% 2,825 65.20% -1,338 -30.88% 4,333
Terrell 2,376 53.80% 2,004 45.38% 372 8.42% 4,416
Thomas 8,708 39.85% 12,954 59.28% -4,246 -19.43% 21,853
Tift 5,322 32.68% 10,784 66.23% -5,462 -33.54% 16,283
Toombs 2,939 26.93% 7,872 72.13% -4,933 -45.20% 10,914
Towns 1,550 19.43% 6,384 80.01% -4,834 -60.58% 7,979
Treutlen 952 30.94% 2,101 68.28% -1,149 -37.34% 3,077
Troup 11,578 38.53% 18,143 60.38% -6,565 -21.85% 30,049
Turner 1,410 37.18% 2,349 61.95% -939 -24.76% 3,792
Twiggs 2,044 45.99% 2,370 53.33% -326 -7.34% 4,444
Union 2,801 18.00% 12,651 81.30% -9,850 -63.30% 15,560
Upson 4,201 32.55% 8,608 66.70% -4,407 -34.15% 12,905
Walker 5,769 19.65% 23,174 78.95% -17,405 -59.29% 29,354
Walton 12,682 24.82% 37,842 74.06% -25,160 -49.24% 51,095
Ware 4,211 29.67% 9,865 69.51% -5,654 -39.84% 14,192
Warren 1,469 55.41% 1,166 43.98% 303 11.43% 2,651
Washington 4,730 50.01% 4,663 49.30% 67 0.71% 9,459
Wayne 2,687 21.03% 9,987 78.16% -7,300 -57.13% 12,778
Webster 639 45.97% 748 53.81% -109 -7.84% 1,390
Wheeler 689 30.15% 1,583 69.28% -894 -39.12% 2,285
White 2,411 16.27% 12,222 82.49% -9,811 -66.22% 14,816
Whitfield 10,670 29.04% 25,636 69.77% -14,966 -40.73% 36,746
Wilcox 862 26.27% 2,403 73.24% -1,541 -46.97% 3,281
Wilkes 2,160 42.95% 2,823 56.13% -663 -13.18% 5,029
Wilkinson 2,075 43.50% 2,664 55.85% -589 -12.35% 4,770
Worth 2,395 25.79% 6,830 73.56% -4,435 -47.77% 9,285
Totals 2,289,113 51.04% 2,195,841 48.96% 93,550 2.0% 4,484,296

Election-related lawsuits[]

Republicans filed two federal and one state lawsuit in December to restrict the January 5 vote. On December 17, Judge Eleanor Louise Ross found that plaintiffs lacked standing based on possible future harm to toss out a consent decree regarding signatures on absentee ballot applications. Judge James Randal Hall threw out another case which tried to block the use of drop boxes for absentee ballots. A third lawsuit, to restrict the use of drop boxes, was heard in state court on December 24.[169][citation needed]

On December 18, a federal judge threw out a Republican lawsuit alleging that out-of-state residents were voting in the runoff election, as Republican attorney Bill Price has recommended.[170] Another lawsuit was filed against the use of voting machines manufactured by Dominion Voting Systems, alleging that election officials are handling mail-in absentee ballots improperly and illegally.[171]

Judge Leslie Abrams Gardner, sister of Democratic politician Stacey Abrams, of the United States District Court for the Middle District of Georgia rejected the attempted purge of 4,000 voters in Muscogee County and Ben Hill County, Georgia on December 29. The ruling means the voters will be able to participate in the January 5 runoff election.[172] The ruling was amended to allow provisional voting to prevent election-day challenges.[173]

See also[]

Notes[]

Partisan clients
  1. ^ Jump up to: a b The American Action Forum is a 501 organization which usually supports Republican candidates.
  2. ^ The Human Rights Campaign endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  3. ^ Jump up to: a b Poll sponsored by Warnock's campaign.
  4. ^ Poll sponsored by AARP.
  5. ^ Poll sponsored by Matt Lieberman's campaign
  6. ^ This poll's sponsor, DFER, primarily supports Democratic candidates
  7. ^ This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501 that supports the Republican Party.
  8. ^ Jump up to: a b c d e f g h i j Internal poll for Collins
  9. ^ Jump up to: a b c d e f Poll is sponsored by OANN, a far-right television news channel.
  10. ^ Jump up to: a b c This poll is sponsored by End Citizens United, a PAC which has endorsed Democratic candidates who are against the landmark Citizens United court ruling.
  11. ^ Steve Phillips, who sponsored this poll, is a senior fellow at the Democratic-leaning Center for American Progress
  12. ^ Poll conducted for the Speaker of Georgia's House Republican caucus
  13. ^ Internal poll for Loeffler
  14. ^ Americas PAC exclusively supports Republican candidates
Voter samples and additional candidates
  1. ^ Jump up to: a b c d e f g h i j k l Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Slowinski (L) with 1%
  3. ^ "Other candidate or write-in" with 1%
  4. ^ Jump up to: a b c With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  5. ^ Jump up to: a b c d e f "Someone else" with 2%
  6. ^ Slowinski (L) with 2%
  7. ^ "Other candidate" with 4%; Slowinski (L) with 2%; "No one" with 1%
  8. ^ Jump up to: a b c With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  9. ^ Jump up to: a b c With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  10. ^ Slowinski (L) with 3%; "Other Candidate" with 2%
  11. ^ Jump up to: a b Would not vote with 1%
  12. ^ Jump up to: a b c d e Includes "Refused"
  13. ^ Bartell (I), Did not vote, Johnson (R), Johnson-Shealey (D) and "Someone else" with 2%; Dien Winfield (D) with 1%
  14. ^ Jump up to: a b c d "Someone else" with 0%
  15. ^ Jump up to: a b "Some other candidate" with 2%
  16. ^ Includes Undecided
  17. ^ Fortuin (G), Johnson-Shealey (D) and Taylor (R) with 1%; Bartell (I), Slade (D) and Stovall (I) with 0%; Buckley (I), Grayson (R), Greene (I), Jackson (R), James (D), Slowinski (L) and Winfield (D) with no voters
  18. ^ Slowinski (L) with 2%; "Other candidate" with 1%
  19. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  20. ^ Jump up to: a b c d e Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  21. ^ "Other Democratic Candidate" with 2%; "Third Party/Write-in" with 1%; "Other Republican Candidate" with 0%
  22. ^ "Other candidate" and Slowinski (L) with 3%; "No one" with 0%
  23. ^ Slowinski (L) with 3%; "Other" with 2%
  24. ^ Slowinski (L) and "Other" with 2%
  25. ^ Slowinski (L) with 3%; "Other candidate" with 1%
  26. ^ "Other Democratic Candidate" with 3%; "Another Third Party/Write-in" and "Other Republican Candidate" with 1%
  27. ^ Would not vote with 1%; "Other candidate" with 0%
  28. ^ Johnson-Shealey (D) with 5%; Bartell (I), Dien Winfield (D) and Johnson (R) with 2%; "One of the other candidates" and would not vote with 1%
  29. ^ Slowinski (L) with 5%; Johnson (R) and would not vote with 4%; "Another candidate/still undecided" with 3%; Winfield (D) with 2%
  30. ^ "Third party candidate" with 1%
  31. ^ "Other candidate" with 5%; Slowinski (L) with 3%
  32. ^ Jump up to: a b "Other" with 4%; Slowinski (L) with 2%
  33. ^ "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 2%
  34. ^ Jump up to: a b "Someone else" with 4%
  35. ^ All other candidates with 5% or less
  36. ^ "Another candidate who qualified to run but isn't listed" with 2%
  37. ^ Bartell (I) with 2%; Slowinski (L) and "someone else" with 1%
  38. ^ Johnson (R) with 4%; Winfield (D) with 3%; Bartell (I) with 2%; "refused" with 0%
  39. ^ Democratic candidates have 31% of the vote combined
  40. ^ Bartell with 5%; Johnson (R) with 2%
  41. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  42. ^ "Someone else" with 9%
  43. ^ Jump up to: a b "Someone else" with 8%
  44. ^ Jump up to: a b "Someone else" with 18%
  45. ^ Jump up to: a b c Likely Republican primary voters, though there is no exclusively Republican primary for Georgia's special election
  46. ^ "Someone else" with 17%
  47. ^ "Someone else" with 20%
  48. ^ "Someone else" with 13%
  49. ^ "Someone else" with 7%
  50. ^ "Someone else" with 5%
  51. ^ "Someone else" with 6%
  52. ^ Listed as "other/undecided"
  53. ^ "It is more important for Republicans to have control of the Senate" as opposed to "It is more important for Democrats to have control of the Senate" with 46%
  54. ^ "It does not matter which party has control of the Senate" with 7%; Undecided with 4%

References[]

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