2018 United States Senate election in Utah

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2018 United States Senate election in Utah

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Turnout74.15%
  Mitt Romney official US Senate portrait (cropped).jpg No image.svg
Nominee Mitt Romney Jenny Wilson
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 665,215 328,541
Percentage 62.6% 30.9%

2018 United States Senate election in Utah results map by county.svg
County results

Romney:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%

Wilson:      40–50%      50–60%

U.S. senator before election

Orrin Hatch
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Mitt Romney
Republican

The 2018 United States Senate election in Utah took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Utah, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. The primaries took place on June 26.[1]

Incumbent Republican senator Orrin Hatch announced in January 2018 that he would retire and not seek reelection to an eighth term. The general election was won by Mitt Romney, who had been the Republican nominee for president in 2012 and previously was the 70th Governor of Massachusetts from 2003 to 2007. Romney became only the third person in American history to be elected governor and U.S. senator in different states, and the first former major party presidential nominee to run for a new office since Walter Mondale in 2002.[2] At 71, he additionally became the oldest person ever elected to a first term as a U.S. senator.[3]

Background[]

Process[]

Utah's 2018 U.S. Senate candidates had dual routes toward placement on the primary election ballot: (1) eligibility via win or second-place showings at a convention of delegates selected from party local caucuses; and/or (2) eligibility via obtaining sufficient petition signatures.

Taking the traditional route, the top two candidates for the U.S. Senate at any of the party state conventions (to be held this year the latter part of April) will be placed on the June 26 primary election ballot. Also, any candidate who collects 28,000 ballot-access petition signatures will be placed on the primary ballot.

If no competitor will have achieved the above-mentioned alternate access to the primary ballot through collected signatures and a convention winner had achieved sixty-percent of delegate votes, this candidate straightaway receives his or her party's nomination solely via the older-style caucuses-convention system. Otherwise, a candidate will be nominated through receiving a plurality of votes in the primary election and thereby advance to the November general election.

Incumbent Orrin Hatch did not seek reelection.[4]

Hatch to retire[]

Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Orrin Hatch was reelected to a seventh term in 2012. During his 2012 reelection campaign, Hatch had pledged that if he were elected that it would be his last term.[5] Hatch won his first election in 1976 in part by criticizing the incumbent's 18-year tenure. Hatch initially announced a re-election campaign on March 9, 2017,[6][7][8][9] though he also said at that time that he might withdraw from the race if Mitt Romney decided to run.[10] An August 19–21, 2016, poll conducted by Public Policy Polling found only 19% of voters wanted Hatch to run in 2018, while 71% wanted him to retire.[11] On October 27, 2017, Hatch reportedly told friends privately that he was going to retire in 2019[12] and on January 2, 2018, made a public announcement of his plans to retire at the end of his current term in January 2019.[4]

Republican primary[]

Romney campaigning
Kennedy campaigning
People voting in the Republican primary

Convention[]

Candidates[]

Nominee[]

  • Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts, Republican nominee for President of the United States in 2012,[13] and Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in Massachusetts in 1994

Eliminated in the primary election[]

Eliminated at Convention[]

  • Loy Brunson
  • Alicia Colvin[15]
  • Stoney Fonua, tax accountant[15]
  • Chris Forbush, attorney and candidate for the Nevada State Assembly in 2016[16]
  • Jeremy Friedbaum[15]
  • Timothy Adrian Jimenez, engineer[17]
  • Joshua Lee
  • Larry Michael Meyers, attorney[18]
  • Gayle Painter[15]
  • Samuel Parker[15]

Declined[]

Endorsements[]

Larry Meyers (eliminated at convention)
Notable individuals

Results[]

State Republican Convention results, 2018
Candidate First ballot Pct. Second ballot Pct.
Mike Kennedy 1,354 40.69% 1,642 50.88%
Mitt Romney 1,539 46.24% 1,585 49.12%
Loy Brunson 4 0.12% Eliminated
Alicia Colvin 29 0.87% Eliminated
Stoney Fonua 7 0.21% Eliminated
Chris Forbush 0 0% Eliminated
Timothy Jiminez 100 3.01% Eliminated
Joshua Lee 2 0.06% Eliminated
Larry Meyers 163 4.90% Eliminated
Gayle Painter 0 0% Eliminated
Samuel Parker 122 3.67% Eliminated
Total 3,328 100.00% 3,227 100.00%

Primary[]

Candidates[]

Declared[]
  • Mike Kennedy, state representative
  • Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts and Republican nominee for President of the United States in 2012

Debates[]

Host
network
Date Link(s) Participants
Mitt
Romney
Mike
Kennedy
KBYU-TV May 29, 2018 [27] Invited Invited

Polling[]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mike
Kennedy
Mitt
Romney
Undecided
Dan Jones & Associates June 11–18, 2018 356 ± 5.2% 23% 65% 12%
Dan Jones & Associates May 15–25, 2018 295 ± 5.7% 24% 67% 9%
Hypothetical polling
with Orrin Hatch
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Orrin
Hatch
Jon
Huntsman Jr.
Undecided
Dan Jones & Associates January 9–16, 2017 605 ± 4.0% 21% 62% 16%

Endorsements[]

Mitt Romney
U.S. Executive Branch Officials
  • George W. Bush, 43rd President of the United States[28]
  • Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States[29]
  • Joe Biden, 47th Vice President of the United States (2009–2017); U.S. Senator from Delaware (1973–2009), New Castle County Councillor for District 4 (1971–1973); and Democratic candidate for president in 1988 and 2008 (Democratic)[30]
U.S. Senators
  • Jeff Flake, U.S. Senator from Arizona[31]
  • Lindsey Graham, U.S. Senator from South Carolina and Republican candidate for President of the United States in 2016[32]
  • Chuck Grassley, U.S. Senator from Iowa[33]
  • Orrin Hatch, U.S. Senator from Utah and President Pro Tempore of the Senate[34]
  • John McCain, U.S. Senator from Arizona and Republican nominee for President of the United States in 2008[35] (deceased)
  • Mitch McConnell, U.S. Senator from Kentucky and Senate Majority Leader[36]
  • Jim Risch, U.S. Senator from Idaho[37]
  • Richard Shelby, U.S. Senator from Alabama[38]
U.S. Representatives
U.S. Governors
Statewide Officeholders
Individuals
Newspapers and Magazines
Mike Kennedy
State Legislators
Individuals

Results[]

Results by county:
Romney
  •   70–80%
  •   60–70%
  •   50–60%
Kennedy
  •   50–60%
Republican primary results[56]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mitt Romney 240,021 71.27%
Republican Mike Kennedy 96,771 28.73%
Total votes 336,792 100%

Democratic primary[]

Candidates[]

Declared[]

Eliminated at Convention[]

  • Mitchell Kent Vice, businessman[58]

Withdrew[]

Declined[]

Endorsements[]

Jenny Wilson
U.S. Representatives
Statewide & Local Politicians
Individuals
Mitchell Vice

Libertarian Party[]

Candidates[]

Declared[]

  • Craig Bowden, veteran and businessman[68]

Constitution Party[]

Candidates[]

Declared[]

Independent American Party[]

Candidates[]

Declared[]

General election[]

Candidates[]

  • Ryan Daniel Jackson (I, write-in)
  • Abe Korb (I, write-in)[69]
  • Caleb Dan Reeve (I, write-in)[69]

Debates[]

Predictions[]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[71] Safe R October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[72] Safe R November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[73] Safe R November 5, 2018
Fox News[74] Likely R July 9, 2018
CNN[75] Safe R July 12, 2018
RealClearPolitics[76] Safe R November 5, 2018

^Highest rating given

Endorsements[]

Mitt Romney (R)
U.S. Presidents
  • George W. Bush, 43rd President of the United States[28]
  • Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States[29]
U.S. Senators
  • Jeff Flake, U.S. Senator from Arizona[31]
  • Lindsey Graham, U.S. Senator from South Carolina and Republican candidate for President of the United States in 2016[32]
  • Chuck Grassley, U.S. Senator from Iowa[33]
  • Orrin Hatch, U.S. Senator from Utah and President Pro Tempore of the Senate[34]
  • John McCain, U.S. Senator from Arizona and Republican nominee for President of the United States in 2008[35]
  • Mitch McConnell, U.S. Senator from Kentucky and Senate Majority Leader[36]
  • Jim Risch, U.S. Senator from Idaho[37]
  • Richard Shelby, U.S. Senator from Alabama[38]
U.S. Representatives
U.S. Governors
Statewide Officeholders
State Legislators
Individuals
Newspapers and Magazines
Jenny Wilson (D)
U.S. Representatives
Statewide & Local Politicians
Individuals
Labor unions
  • United Automobile Workers[78]
  • Utah State AFL-CIO[79]
Organizations

Polling[]

Graphical summary
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mitt
Romney (R)
Jenny
Wilson (D)
Other Undecided
University of Utah October 3–9, 2018 607 ± 4.0% 59% 23% 8% 10%
Dan Jones & Associates August 22–31, 2018 809 ± 3.4% 55% 29% 8%[81] 7%
Lighthouse Research August 11–27, 2018 2,400 59% 19% 9%[82] 14%
University of Utah June 11–18, 2018 654 ± 3.9% 58% 20% 21%
Dan Jones & Associates January 15–18, 2018 803 ± 3.5% 64% 19% 12%
Dan Jones & Associates November 16–21, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 72% 21% 7%
Dan Jones & Associates August 30 – September 5, 2017[note 1] 608 ± 4.0% 64% 26% 10%

Notes[]

  1. ^ The party affiliations of candidates were not described in the question wording as a result of an oversight by the pollster.
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mitt
Romney (R)
Jenny
Wilson (D)
Craig
Bowden (L)
Dan
McCay (R)
Mitchell
Vice (D)
Larry
Meyers (R)
Alicia
Colvin (R)
Jay
Hyatt (R)
L'Capi
Titus (R)
Timothy
Jimenez (R)
Other Undecided
Dan Jones & Associates February 9–16, 2018 609 ± 4.0% 60% 14% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 2% 14%
with Mike Kennedy
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mike
Kennedy (R)
Jenny
Wilson (D)
Undecided
Dan Jones & Associates June 11–18, 2018 654 ± 3.9% 43% 28% 29%
with Orrin Hatch
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Orrin
Hatch (R)
Jenny
Wilson (D)
Undecided
Dan Jones & Associates November 16–21, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 50% 35% 15%
Dan Jones & Associates August 30 – September 5, 2017 608 ± 4.0% 34% 45% 21%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Orrin
Hatch (R)
Evan
McMullin (I)
Generic
Democrat
Other Undecided
JMC Analytics March 18–March 20, 2017 625 ± 3.9% 29% 33% 11% 10% 17%
with Chris Stewart
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Chris
Stewart (R)
Jenny
Wilson (D)
Undecided
Dan Jones & Associates August 30 – September 5, 2017 608 ± 4.0% 34% 30% 36%
with Matt Holland
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Matt
Holland (R)
Jenny
Wilson (D)
Undecided
Dan Jones & Associates August 30 – September 5, 2017 608 ± 4.0% 23% 30% 47%

Results[]

United States Senate general election in Utah, 2018[83]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Mitt Romney 665,215 62.59% -2.72%
Democratic Jenny Wilson 328,541 30.91% +0.93%
Constitution Tim Aalders 28,774 2.71% -0.46%
Libertarian Craig Bowden 27,607 2.60% N/A
Reed McCandless 12,708 1.20% N/A
Write-in 52 <0.01% N/A
Total votes 1,062,897 100% N/A
Republican hold

References[]

  1. ^ Wood, Benjamin (June 26, 2018). "Mitt Romney claims GOP nomination in Utah's U.S. Senate race". The Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved June 26, 2018.
  2. ^ "3 decades of presidential losers: Where are they now?". theweek.com. 2012-12-26. Retrieved 2020-09-27.
  3. ^ Mitt Romney Could Become Oldest Popularly Elected Freshman Senator. NY Mag. 7 April 2017.
  4. ^ Jump up to: a b Martin, Jonathan (January 2, 2018). "Orrin Hatch to Retire from Senate, Opening Path for Mitt Romney". The New York Times. Retrieved January 2, 2018.
  5. ^ Lederman, Josh (March 14, 2012). "Hatch will retire in 2018 if he wins reelection". The Hill. Retrieved October 20, 2016.
  6. ^ Romboy, Dennis (November 6, 2014). "Sen. Orrin Hatch leaves door ajar for run in 2018". Deseret News. Retrieved October 20, 2016.
  7. ^ Rolly, Paul (September 23, 2016). "When Hatch said he wouldn't run again, he was just kidding". The Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved October 20, 2016.
  8. ^ Everett, Burgess; Palmer, Anna (October 19, 2016). "Hatch may reverse himself and run in 2018". Politico. Retrieved October 20, 2016.
  9. ^ Jump up to: a b Raju, Manu (March 9, 2017). "First on CNN: After lobbying from Trump, Orrin Hatch plans to run again". CNN. Retrieved March 11, 2017.
  10. ^ Prignano, Christina (March 31, 2017). "Utah Senator says he may forgo '18 run if Mitt Romney runs for his seat". The Boston Globe. Retrieved April 2, 2017.
  11. ^ Jensen, Tom (August 24, 2016). "Utah Ready for Hatch to Move On; More Progressive Than You Might Think". Public Policy Polling. Retrieved October 20, 2016.
  12. ^ Linskey, Annie (October 27, 2017). "A Hatch retirement — and a Romney Senate run — could be inching closer to reality". The Boston Globe. Retrieved January 2, 2018.
  13. ^ "Mitt Romney is officially running for U.S. Senate". USA Today.
  14. ^ McKenzie Stauffer; Heidi Hatch (June 26, 2018). "Mitt Romney wins against Mike Kennedy, Rep. Curtis defeats Herrod for second time". KUTV.com. Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  15. ^ Jump up to: a b c d e Cathcart, Preston (March 14, 2018). "Candidates file for congressional, Utah legislative races". Deseret News. Retrieved March 15, 2018.
  16. ^ "Op-ed: It's time to invite Sen. Orrin Hatch to come home". DeseretNews.com. 2017-08-07. Retrieved 2017-08-22.
  17. ^ "Tooelean wants to capture U.S. Senate seat". Retrieved 2018-02-11.
  18. ^ "St. George attorney announces run for GOP US Senate nomination". StGeorgeUtah.com. January 6, 2018. Retrieved January 10, 2018.
  19. ^ Bowman, Bridget (April 28, 2017). "Rob Bishop Discounts Prospect of Senate Run". Roll Call. Retrieved April 30, 2017.
  20. ^ Viebeck, Elise (April 19, 2017). "Chaffetz will leave behind Oversight panel he used to investigate Obama White House". Washington Post. Retrieved April 19, 2017.
  21. ^ Samuels, Brett (20 November 2017). "Prominent conservative passes on Utah Senate bid". The Hill.
  22. ^ Jump up to: a b Rogin, Josh (November 8, 2016). "What is Evan McMullin's endgame?". The Washington Post. Retrieved November 11, 2016.
  23. ^ Jump up to: a b c "Mia Love on Twitter".
  24. ^ Burr, Thomas; Canham, Matt (November 16, 2016). "Sen. Orrin Hatch considers re-election run, Evan McMullin won't rule out his own bid". The Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved December 4, 2016.
  25. ^ Weaver, Jennifer (April 16, 2018). "Ammon Bundy endorses Meyers for U.S. Senate citing his support of limited government". KUTV. Retrieved April 16, 2018.
  26. ^ Romboy, Dennis (April 6, 2018). "Former GOP gubernatorial candidate endorses Larry Myers for U.S. Senate". Deseret News. Retrieved April 7, 2018.
  27. ^ https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=41&v=plTuGQSJ1oc
  28. ^ Jump up to: a b "Romney falls short in Utah GOP convention, forced into primary for Senate seat". Politico.
  29. ^ Jump up to: a b Donald J. Trump [@realdonaldtrump] (2018-02-19). ".@MittRomney has announced he is running for the Senate from the wonderful State of Utah. He will make a great Senator and worthy successor to @OrrinHatch, and has my full support and endorsement!" (Tweet). Archived from the original on 2020-12-16. Retrieved 2021-05-07 – via Twitter.
  30. ^ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DIFnSgDpOw8
  31. ^ Jump up to: a b "Jeff Flake wants Mitt Romney to run for U.S. Senate in Utah". NBC News.
  32. ^ Jump up to: a b "Lindsey Graham on Twitter".
  33. ^ Jump up to: a b "ChuckGrassley on Twitter".
  34. ^ Jump up to: a b Kaczynski, Andrew. "Sen. Orrin Hatch: Romney will 'have my support' if he runs for Senate". CNN.
  35. ^ Jump up to: a b "John McCain on Twitter".
  36. ^ Jump up to: a b "Mitch McConnell: "We're all behind" Mitt Romney". CBS News.
  37. ^ Jump up to: a b "Romney, favored in Senate bid, could take on outsized role". 18 February 2018.
  38. ^ Jump up to: a b "Richard Shelby on Mitt Romney for U.S. Senate: 'I hope he will run - I would encourage him to run' - Yellowhammer News - Yellowhammer News". yellowhammernews.com.
  39. ^ Jump up to: a b "Jason Chaffetz Makes Comical Defense of Romney's Utah Senate Run: 'He's Got a Utah Driver's License'". www.mediaite.com.
  40. ^ Jump up to: a b "Paul Ryan on Twitter".
  41. ^ Jump up to: a b Beavers, Olivia (15 January 2018). "Jeb Bush backs Romney for Utah Senate run".
  42. ^ Jump up to: a b "Luis Fortuño on Twitter".
  43. ^ Jump up to: a b "Utah Gov. Herbert says Romney should run for the Senate".
  44. ^ Jump up to: a b "Spencer Cox on Twitter".
  45. ^ Jump up to: a b "Jon Huntsman Sr. backs Mitt Romney for Senate, says he'd represent Utah 'very, very well'".
  46. ^ Jump up to: a b McMullin, Evan. "Thank you for your service to our state and country, Senator Hatch. In this seat, we must have a leader prepared to meet the challenges of our day and our future. I hope that leader will be @MittRomney".
  47. ^ Jump up to: a b Milbank, Dana (29 December 2017). "Opinion - Run, Mitt, run" – via www.washingtonpost.com.
  48. ^ Jump up to: a b "Wall Street, big business start backing Mitt Romney's Senate bid as GOP establishment seeks stronger leadership in Congress". CNBC.
  49. ^ Jump up to: a b c d "Romney for Senate". National Review.
  50. ^ Jump up to: a b "Tribune Editorial: Mitt Romney should be a savior for Republicans and run for Senate".
  51. ^ Jump up to: a b "Archived copy". Archived from the original on 2018-02-20. Retrieved 2018-02-19.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  52. ^ Jump up to: a b c d e f g h i j k "Endorsements | Mike Kennedy for US Senate". www.kennedyforutah.com. Archived from the original on 18 June 2018. Retrieved 17 June 2018.
  53. ^ Jump up to: a b Romboy, Dennis (8 June 2018). "Not all lawmakers on candidate Mike Kennedy's endorsement list actually back him". DeseretNews.com. Archived from the original on 2019-10-05. Retrieved 17 June 2018.
  54. ^ Dr. Mike Kennedy. "ENDORSEMENT ALERT