2018 Massachusetts gubernatorial election

2018 Massachusetts gubernatorial election
Turnout	60.77% 10.15%
	Results by municipality
Governor before election; Charlie Baker; Republican	Elected Governor ; Charlie Baker; Republican

The 2018 Massachusetts gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Republican Governor Charlie Baker and Lieutenant Governor Karyn Polito sought reelection to a second term in office, facing Democratic challengers Jay Gonzalez and Quentin Palfrey, respectively. Candidates were selected in the primary election held on September 4, 2018.

Shortly after polls closed at 8 p.m. local time, the Associated Press declared the race in favor of incumbents Baker and Polito.^[2] Shortly after 9 p.m. location time, Gonzalez conceded the election.^[3]

Baker was reelected with the highest vote total in the history of Massachusetts gubernatorial elections and by the widest margin since Bill Weld was reelected governor in 1994. He won many of the Commonwealth's most populated cities, including Worcester, New Bedford, and Springfield.^[4] Baker almost won Boston, losing it by around 3,000 votes, an extraordinary showing for a statewide Republican candidate in a major city.^[5]

Background[]

Charlie Baker was elected in 2014 by a slim margin over then-Attorney General Martha Coakley; however, he has consistently rated as one of the most popular governors in the country.^[6] Some Democrats, including Congressman Mike Capuano and Speaker of the House Bob DeLeo publicly speculated they may vote for Baker over the eventual Democratic nominee.^[7] Speculated candidates such as Attorney General Maura Healey, Congressman Joe Kennedy, former State Senator Dan Wolf, and Boston Mayor Marty Walsh all declined to be candidates, leaving no prominent Democrats to challenge Baker, which was seen as a necessary prerequisite to mount a formidable challenge to him.

Because Evan Falchuk received more than 3% of the vote in the 2014 gubernatorial election, the United Independent Party gained official status.^[8] Falchuck had stated that he would "certainly" run for office in 2018.^[9] In 2016 however, the UIP lost its official party status after it failed to register 1% of Massachusetts voters as members.^[10] Evan Falchuk later left the UIP and registered as a Democrat in early 2017.^[11]^[12]

Republican primary[]

There was some concern amongst the Republican Party that Baker was too moderate, and talks of challenging him with a more conservative opponent in the primaries. GOP state committeeman Robert Cappucci told the Boston Herald that if Baker "shuns conservatives [...] there will be 100 percent an effort to try to find a conservative, viable candidate to challenge him in 2018 for governor". David Kopacz, the president of the Massachusetts Republican Assembly, also stated that Baker may face a conservative challenger in 2018.^[13]

Following his 2016 election, Barnstable County Commissioner Ron Beaty, who once was tried and convicted for threatening the life of President George H. W. Bush,^[14] has been making local and state headlines. He's proposed a "shark mitigation strategy" to combat the growing presence of sharks near Cape Cod beaches by baiting and shooting them, which was rejected for consideration by the commission chairman. He has also mulled a primary run against his state representative, Randy Hunt, after Hunt parked in his Barnstable County Courthouse parking spot. In September 2017 he announced he was in the process of changing the purpose of his campaign committee from a county to a statewide office. He cites the Governor's criticisms of President Donald Trump and his willingness to work with Democrats as his inspiration to run.^[15] On December 8, 2017, Scott Lively announced his campaign.^[16]

On December 13, 2017, Beaty stated he is no longer considering a run against Baker.^[17] Scott Lively, an evangelical pastor, challenged Baker and received more than the 15% of delegate votes necessary at the state convention to qualify for ballot access. Baker won the endorsement of the party by an overwhelming margin.^[18]

Baker ultimately won the nomination, but not without Lively securing over a quarter of the primary vote, leading to speculation that Baker's more moderate disposition and opposition to President Trump may have damaged his general election chances with Republican base voters.^[19]

Governor[]

Candidates[]

Declared[]

Charlie Baker, incumbent governor^[20]
Scott Lively, pastor and independent candidate for governor in 2014^[21]

Declined[]

Ron Beaty, Barnstable County Commissioner (running for state representative, endorsed Lively)^[15]

Endorsements[]

Charlie Baker

Local officials

Sefatia Romeo Theken, Mayor of Gloucester^[22]

Organizations

Massachusetts Republican Party^[23]

Newspapers

Boston Herald^[24]
The Boston Globe^[25]

Scott Lively

Local officials

Ron Beaty, Barnstable County Commissioner and candidate for State Representative^[15]

Polling[]

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Charlie Baker	Scott Lively	Other	Undecided
MassINC	June 22–25, 2018	399	± 4.9%	70%	17%	2%	10%

Results[]

Convention[]

Republican convention vote, April 28 ^[18]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Charlie Baker (incumbent)	1,577	69.8%
	Republican	Scott Lively	626	27.7%
	Republican	Other	57	2.5%
Total votes			2,260	100.0%

Primary[]

Republican gubernatorial primary results by municipality

Republican gubernatorial primary results by county:

Baker—60–70%

Baker—50–60%

Republican primary, September 4^[26]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Charlie Baker (incumbent)	174,126	63.78%
	Republican	Scott Lively	98,421	36.05%
	Republican	All others	464	0.17%
Total votes			273,011	100.00%

Lieutenant Governor[]

Candidates[]

Declared[]

Karyn Polito, incumbent Lieutenant Governor^[20]

Results[]

Republican lieutenant gubernatorial primary results by county:

Polito—>90%

Republican primary results^[27]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Karyn Polito (incumbent)	204,914	98.8
	Republican	All others	2,571	1.2
Total votes			207,485	100.0

Democratic primary[]

In November 2014, after interviewing over a dozen Democratic operatives, strategists, and activists, Joshua Miller of The Boston Globe wrote that the party would be looking for a young, fresh candidate who can appeal to the party's progressive base. He identified Attorney General Maura Healey as being "the first name on many Democratic lists".^[28] Samantha Lachman of The Huffington Post also identified Healey as a potential candidate for governor in 2018 or in a future United States Senate race.^[29]

As of July 2017, the declared candidates are relatively unknown to the state's voters.^[30] Their identification by Democratic voters was bolstered by addressing the 2017 state Democratic Convention, which saw its largest attendance of around 3,000 delegates in years.^[31]

On April 26, 2018, Setti Warren announced via Facebook that he was withdrawing from the race due to financial concerns. He stated he would not endorse either of his former opponents until the nomination is won.^[32]

At the Massachusetts Democratic Convention in June, party delegates endorsed Gonzalez and Palfrey, but Bob Massie and Jimmy Tingle also surpassed the 15% threshold for ballot access by comfortable margins.^[33] A poll from late June conducted by WBUR and MassInc. indicated that the contest for the Democratic nomination in the gubernatorial race is a toss-up, with Massie and Gonzalez being separated by a percentage smaller than the margin of error.

Gonzalez and Palfrey went on to win their respective nominations generously (winning almost every municipality in the state) and are headed into the general election to face their Republican counterparts.