2020 Trinidad and Tobago general election

2020 Trinidad and Tobago general election

← 2015 10 August 2020 (2020-08-10) Next →
All 41 seats in the House of Representatives 21 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout	58.04%[1] ( 8.8 pp)
First party Second party   Leader Keith Rowley Kamla Persad-Bissessar Party PNM UNC Leader since 26 May 2010 24 January 2010 Leader's seat Diego Martin West Siparia Last election 23 seats, 51.69% 17 seats, 39.61% Seats won 22 / 41 19 / 41 Seat change 1 2 Popular vote 322,250 309,188 Percentage 49.08% 47.09% Swing 2.60 pp 7.48 pp
Map showing the seats won by the two parties that won seats in the election. Tobago's seats are shown on the left, Trinidad's seats on the right.
Prime Minister before election Keith Rowley PNM Subsequent Prime Minister Keith Rowley PNM

General elections were held in Trinidad and Tobago on Monday, 10 August 2020,^[2] to elect 41 members to the 12th Trinidad and Tobago Republican Parliament. It was the 14th election since gaining independence from the United Kingdom in 1962 and the 22nd national election in Trinidad and Tobago ever. Tracy Davidson-Celestine, political leader of the Tobago Council of the People's National Movement (PNM) became the first woman to lead a Tobagonian political party with representation in the House of Representatives. Additionally, two of the three largest parties elected in 2015, the United National Congress (UNC) and the Congress of the People (COP), were led by women.^[3]

President Paula-Mae Weekes, with the advice of Prime Minister Keith Rowley, dissolved Parliament and issued the writs for the election on 3 July 2020.^[4]

The first-term incumbent People's National Movement (PNM), led by incumbent Prime Minister Keith Rowley, won 22 seats to form a second five-year term majority government by defeating the opposition United National Congress, led by Opposition Leader Kamla Persad-Bissessar.^[5][6][7] Her latest in a series of losses at the polls which commenced with the January 2013 Tobago House of Assembly election with the wipeout of her People's Partnership-led administration from the Tobago House of Assembly due to a landslide victory by the Tobago Council of the PNM, losses at the 2013 Trinidadian local elections, St. Joseph and Chaguanas West bye-elections, loss in the 2015 Trinidad and Tobago general election, and subsequent losses in local government bye-elections^[8][9] has placed pressure on her to offer her resignation before the 2020 United National Congress leadership election.^[10] The UNC finished with 19 seats. The results in six constituencies were subject to recounts, causing the final election results to be delayed by a week.^[11] This is the first parliamentary election in Trinidad and Tobago where the result was not finalized the day after the election.^[12]

Voters elected the 41 members to the House of Representatives by first-past-the-post voting. Rowley and the new cabinet were sworn in on 19 August 2020.^[13]

Electoral system[]

The 41 members of the House of Representatives are elected by first-past-the-post voting in single-member constituencies. Registered voters must be 18 years and over, must reside in an electoral district/constituency for at least two months prior to the qualifying date, be a citizen of Trinidad and Tobago or a Commonwealth citizen residing legally in Trinidad and Tobago for a period of at least one year.^[14]

If one party obtains a majority of seats, then that party is entitled to form the Government, with its leader as Prime Minister. If the election results in no single party having a majority, then there is a hung parliament. In this case, the options for forming the Government are either a minority government or a coalition government.^[15]

Parties and candidates[]

Political parties registered with the (EBC) can contest the general election as a party.^[16]

The leader of the party commanding a majority of support in the House of Representatives is the person who is called on by the president to form a government as Prime Minister, while the leader of the largest party or coalition not in government becomes the Leader of the Opposition.^[15]

Prior to the election, the People's National Movement, led by Prime Minister Keith Rowley formed a majority government. The largest opposition party was the United National Congress, led by Kamla Persad-Bissessar. The Congress of the People was the sole other party in Parliament, represented by a single MP.

The People's National Movement and the United National Congress have been the two biggest parties, in addition to having supplied every Prime Minister since 1991.^[17]

On 14 July 2020, the leader of the Patriotic Front, Mickela Panday, announced that her party will no longer be contesting the 2020 elections due to lack of time to prepare for the August 2020 polls.^[18]

The following registered parties are contesting the general election, the People's National Movement is the only party fielding all 41 seats (39 in Trinidad and two in Tobago), 14 parties are contesting seats in Trinidad only and four parties are contesting seats in Tobago only.^[19]

Trinidad and Tobago[]

Trinidad only[]

Tobago only[]

Ideology[]

Significant differences in the programs of the two major parties UNC and PNM cannot be identified. The UNC is traditionally more of an Indo-Trinidadian party, while Afro-Trinidadians and Tobagonians make up the majority of the PNM's base. In Trinidad, however, racial differences play a subordinate role, the dominant subject areas in the media are the stagnating economy and the high rate of violent crime; here both parties claim that they are better suited to combat them.^[38] In the closing stages of the election campaign, Prime Minister Rowley and citizens accused the UNC of using racist motives in its advertising campaign.^[39]

Some parties only represent regional positions. This applies in particular to the parties PDP and OTV, who are running exclusively in Tobago and advocate for regional interests of the island^[36] and the MND, which advocates the interests of the Diego Martin region.^[29]

The announcement by the opposition UNC that, in the event of an election victory, would build a “dome” over Trinidad to protect against illegal immigrants, made the election campaign relaxed. Before the UNC made it clear that it meant a radar screen, users of social media picked up the topic and indulged in humorous allusions to domes in films and television series.^[40]

Process[]

The organization of the election was subject to the state Elections and Boundaries Commission (EBC). There were no election observers. Prime Minister Rowley revealed after the election that he had invited observers from CARICOM and the Commonwealth of Nations, but they were unable to pay for the 14-day quarantine required of foreign visitors.^[41]

Opinion research in the run-up to the election was carried out by the North American Caribbean Teachers Association (NACTA) and the management consultancy HHB Associates, among others. A NACTA poll shortly after the election date was announced, found that, as in most previous elections, only PNM and UNC would play a role.^[42] An HHB poll published July 25 in the Trinidad and Tobago Guardian found the ruling PNM at 53% and the UNC at 44%.^[43] A NACTA poll from July 25, however, saw the UNC one percentage point ahead.^[44] At this point in time, the tendency, known from previous elections, was that Trinidadians with African roots tend to choose the PNM and Trinidadians with Indian roots rather the UNC.

The resignation of former deputy PNM chairwoman Nafeesa Mohammed on July 28, who accused the PNM leadership of arrogance, ignorance and incompetence, caused a media stir.^[45] The Leader of the Opposition, former Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar, was threatened with death during the election campaign.^[46] Minor parties and bodies called on the President to postpone the election in view of the COVID-19 pandemic, which was also rampant in Trinidad, but their requests were denied.^[47] A UNC supporter was stabbed on the sidelines of a UNC election campaign on the Saturday before the election.^[48]

The polling stations closed at 6:00 p.m. on election Monday.^[49]

Marginal seats[]

The following lists identify and rank seats by the margin by which the party's candidate finished behind the winning candidate in the 2015 election.

For information purposes only, seats that have changed hands through subsequent by elections have been noted. Seats whose members have changed party allegiance are ignored.

  = appears in two lists

Members of Parliament not standing for re-election[]

Trinidad[]

Candidates by constituency[]

Candidate nominations for the election were finalized on Nomination Day (July 17, 2020). The full candidate list is presented below,^[19] along with the incumbent candidates before the election.^[56] Non-minister MPs who are not standing for re-election are marked (†)^[57] Government ministers are in bold, and party leaders are in italics.

Trinidad (39 constituencies) & Tobago (2 constituencies)[]

Campaign slogans[]

Opinion polls[]

The North American Caribbean Teachers Association (NACTA) based in New York (led by political analyst Vishnu Bisram), pollster Nigel Henry's Solution by Simulation and pollster Louis Bertrand's H.H.B (H.H.B) & Associates have commissioned opinion polling for the next general election sampling the electorates' opinions.

Graphical summary[]

Seat projections[]

Individual polls[]

Regional/Subnational polls[]

Tobago East[]

Tobago West[]

Moruga/Tableland[]

St. Joseph[]

San Fernando West[]

Tunapuna[]

Toco/Sangre Grande[]

Satisfaction[]

Date[nb 1]	Firm	Interview Mode	Sample size
				Rowley (PNM)			Persad-Bissessar (UNC)
				Satisfied	Dissatisfied	Never heard of	Satisfied	Dissatisfied	Never heard of
July 2020	H.H.B. & Associates/Guardian Media[96]	Face-to-face	600	57%	43%	0%	53%	44%	3%
31 May 2020	NACTA/Newsday[97]	n/a	n/a	53%	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
March 2020	NACTA/Newsday[97]	n/a	n/a	46%	n/a	n/a	55%	n/a	n/a
1–7 September 2019	SBS/Express[98]	Telephone	n/a	50%	38%	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
8 March 2019	NACTA/Newsday[79]	Face-to-face	540	40%	47%	n/a	42%	44%	n/a
24 September 2017	NACTA/Newsday[99]	Face-to-face	390	40%	n/a	n/a	42%	n/a	n/a
1–3 September 2017	H.H.B. & Associates/Guardian Media[100]	Telephone	301	32%	n/a	n/a	43%	38%	n/a
July 2017	NACTA/Newsday[99]	Face-to-face	410	41%	n/a	n/a	43%	n/a	n/a
June 2017	NACTA/Newsday[99]	Face-to-face	380	42%	n/a	n/a	43%	n/a	n/a
30 August – 5 September 2016	SBS/Express[101]	Telephone	601	51%	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
^ Remainder were "undecided".

Preferred Prime Minister[]

Date[nb 1]	Firm	Interview Mode	Sample size			Lead
				Rowley (PNM)	Persad-Bissessar (UNC)
July 2020	H.H.B. & Associates[96]	Face-to-face	600	39%	34%	5%
March 2020	NACTA[97]	n/a	n/a	43%	45%	2%
^ Remainder were "undecided".

Government direction[]

Voter demographics[]

Voter demographic data for 2020 were collected by Solution by Simulation Ltd (SBS) for the Trinidad Express Newspapers completed by 473 likely voters in Trinidad and Tobago by phone and H.H.B. & Associates for the Trinidad and Tobago Guardian completed by 600 registered voters face-to-face suggested the following demographic breakdown:

Results[]

At 10:30 pm on Election Day, Prime Minister Keith Rowley declared his party the winner of the election with 22 seats.^{[105][106][107][108][109][110]} UNC leader Persad-Bissessar declared wins in 19 seats, taking the Moruga/Tableland seat from the PNM and the St. Augustine seat from the COP.^[111] She disagreed with Rowley's victory declaration and objected to the long delays at polling stations.^[112]

In total, six seats won by the PNM were disputed: the UNC requested recounts for five constituencies in Trinidad (San Fernando West, St Joseph, Tunapuna, Toco-Sangre Grande and La Horquetta/Talparo),^[113] while the Progressive Democratic Patriots (PDP) requested a recount in Tobago East.^[114] The EBC took one week to conduct the recounts, observing only minor changes from the preliminary vote counts: the largest change was an increase of 103 votes for the UNC in San Fernando West. The counts for the other districts differed by ten votes or fewer.^[11] Rowley and the new PNM cabinet were then sworn in by President Paula-Mae Weekes on the following day, August 19. The ceremony was held at President's House.^[13]

Party		Votes	%	+/–	Seats	+/–
	People's National Movement	322,250	49.08	–2.60	22	–1
	United National Congress	309,188	47.09	+7.48	19	+2
	Progressive Democratic Patriots	10,367	1.58	New	0	New
	Progressive Empowerment Party	5,933	0.90	New	0	New
	Independent Liberal Party	3,817	0.58	–0.12	0	0
	Movement for Social Justice	1,223	0.19	New	0	New
	Movement for National Development	1,039	0.16	New	0	New
	COP–DPTT–	524	0.08	–5.93	0	–1
	New National Vision	493	0.08	–0.04	0	0
	Trinidad Humanity Campaign	366	0.06	+0.04	0	0
	National Organisation of We the People	310	0.05	New	0	New
	National Coalition for Transformation	234	0.04	–0.01	0	0
	Progressive Party	211	0.03	New	0	New
	One Tobago Voice	80	0.01	New	0	New
	Unrepresented Peoples Party	73	0.01	New	0	New
	Unity of the People	40	0.01	New	0	New
	The National Party	23	0.00	New	0	New
	Independents	351	0.05	–0.27	0	0
Total		656,522	100.00	–	41	0
Valid votes		656,522	99.73
Invalid/blank votes		1,775	0.27
Total votes		658,297	100.00
Registered voters/turnout		1,134,135	58.04
Source: EBCTT, IPU

Reactions[]

Domestic reactions[]

• President of Trinidad and Tobago Paula-Mae Weekes in her address "wished the Prime Minister and his Cabinet success in the delivery of their mandate and urged them to get down to the serious business of the good governance of the people of Trinidad and Tobago."^{[115][116][117]}
•  Tobago: Chief Secretary of Tobago Ancil Dennis issued "congratulations to Prime Minister Dr. The Honourable Keith Christopher Rowley and his new Cabinet."^[118]

Regional reactions[]

•  CARICOM
  • “Prime Minister, your success at the polls is an indication of the confidence that the people of Trinidad and Tobago have in your stewardship and the plans you have outlined for their future,” Ambassador LaRocque said in his congratulatory message to Dr. Rowley.^[119][120]
•  CARICOM /  St. Vincent and the Grenadines
  • CARICOM Chairman and Prime Minister of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Ralph Gonsalves tweeted: "Congratulations to my brother and friend Dr Keith Rowley and the PNM team on their electoral victory last night. We look forward to growing our already strong relationship with the government and people of TT."^[121][122]
•  St. Lucia
  • Prime Minister of Saint Lucia Allen Chastanet, in a statement expressed: "Congratulations to Dr. Keith Rowley and the People’s National Movement on their new mandate to continue serving Trinidad & Tobago for 5 more years. We wish you, your team and the people of T&T great success throughout this new term and we look forward to working together to build a more united and prosperous region