2020 United States Senate election in Tennessee
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| Turnout | 68.6%  [1] | ||||||||||||||||
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 County results Hagerty: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Bradshaw: 50–60% 60–70% | |||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Tennessee |
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 Federal government |
 Knoxville |
 Nashville |
 Government |
The 2020 United States Senate election in Tennessee was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Tennessee, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Senator Lamar Alexander announced that he would not run for re-election on December 17, 2018.[2] The former United States Ambassador to Japan, Bill Hagerty won the open seat by a large margin against his Democratic opponent Marquita Bradshaw.
Republican primary[]
Candidates[]
Nominee[]
- Bill Hagerty, businessman, former United States Ambassador to Japan and former Commissioner of the Tennessee Department of Economic and Community Development[3][4]
Eliminated in the primary[]
- Cliff Adkins[5]
- Natisha Brooks[5]
- Byron Bush, dentist[6]
- Roy Dale Cope, small business owner and pharmacist[7][8]
- Terry Dicus, attorney[8]
- Tom Emerson, Jr., Tea Party candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014[9]
- George Flinn, Jr., former Shelby County commissioner, Nixon Administration Official, physician, engineer, businessman and Republican candidate in Tennessee's 8th congressional district in 2016 and 2018[10]
- Jon Henry, U.S. Marine Corps veteran[10]
- Kent Morrell, business owner[10]
- Glen Neal, Jr., retired public servant[10]
- John Osborne, real estate agent and business owner[10]
- Aaron Pettigrew, truck driver[11]
- David Schuster, U.S. Navy veteran[9]
- Manny Sethi, orthopedic surgeon, director of the Vanderbilt Orthopedic Institute Center for Health Policy and founder and president of the non-profit Healthy Tennessee[12]
Disqualified from the primary ballot[]
- Jim Elkins, Republican candidate for Tennessee's 3rd congressional district in 2020[13]
- Johnny Presley, retired physician's assistant, hospital and clinic owner, farmer[14]
Withdrawn[]
- Clyde Benson, army veteran and Republican candidate for District 39 of the Tennessee House of Representatives in 2016[15][9]
- Larry Crim[16][9]
- Josh Gapp, physician (running for TN-01)[17][18]
- Garrett "Lance" Nichols[10][9]
- Stokes Nielson, music industry executive and guitarist for The Lost Trailers[19]
Declined[]
- Lamar Alexander, incumbent U.S. Senator[2][20]
- Mae Beavers, former state senator (endorsed Sethi)[21]
- Diane Black, former U.S. Representative for Tennessee's 6th congressional district and candidate for Governor in 2018[22]
- Randy Boyd, former Commissioner of the Tennessee Department of Economic and Community Development, candidate for Governor in 2018, and President of the University of Tennessee system[3]
- Bob Corker, former U.S. Senator[23]
- Stephen Fincher, former U.S. Representative for Tennessee's 8th congressional district[24] and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018[3]
- Chuck Fleischmann, U.S. Representative for Tennessee's 3rd congressional district[25]
- Mark E. Green, U.S. Representative for Tennessee's 7th congressional district and former state senator[26]
- Tre Hargett, Tennessee Secretary of State[21]
- Beth Harwell, former Speaker of the Tennessee House of Representatives and candidate for Governor in 2018[3]
- Bill Haslam, former Governor of Tennessee[27]
- David Kustoff, U.S. Representative for Tennessee's 8th congressional district and former U.S. Attorney[28]
- Peyton Manning, retired NFL quarterback[29]
- Jeff Webb, businessman (endorsed Sethi)[24]
Endorsements[]
Bill Hagerty
- Federal Officials
- Marsha Blackburn, U.S. Senator (TN)[30]
- Tom Cotton, U.S. Senator (AR)[31]
- Mitch McConnell, U.S. Senator (KY) and Senate Majority Leader[32]
- Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States[33]
- Governors
- Jeb Bush, former Governor of Florida and 2016 Republican candidate for President of the United States[34]
- Bill Haslam, former Governor of Tennessee and Mayor of Knoxville[34]
- State Officials
- Patsy Hazlewood, State Representative[35]
- Curtis Johnson, Deputy Speaker of the Tennessee House of Representatives[36]
- Individuals
- Organizations
Manny Sethi
- Federal Officials
- Ed Bryant, former U.S. Representative (TN-07) (1995–2003)[42]
- John J. "Jimmy" Duncan Jr., former U.S. Representative (TN-02) (1988–2019)[43]
- Ted Cruz, U.S. Senator (TX)[44]
- Rand Paul, U.S. Senator (KY)[45]
- Zach Wamp, former U.S. Representative (TN-03) (1995–2011)[46]
- Governors
- Winfield Dunn, businessman and former Governor of Tennessee[34]
- State Officials
- Richard Briggs, State Senator (Knoxville-07) and Colonel (Ret.) in the United States Army[47]
- Joe S. Carr, former State Representative (Lascassas-48)[48]
- Dan Howell, State Representative (Georgetown-22)[34]
- Kelly Keisling, State Representative (Byrdstown-38)[34]
- James Peach, former State Representative (Camden-74)[49]
- Tony Shipley, former State Representative (Kingsport-02)[49]
Polling[]
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
George Flinn | Mark Green | Bill Hagerty | Bill Haslam | Manny Sethi | Other | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JMC Analytics and Polling | July 18–19, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 5% | – | 36% | – | 32% | 9% | 20% | ||
| The Trafalgar Group | July 6–8, 2020 | 1,062 (LV) | ± 2.92% | 4% | – | 42% | – | 39% | 2% | 13% | ||
| Victory Phones[A] | June 30 – July 1, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.46% | 6% | – | 33% | – | 31% | – | 30% | ||
| The Tarrance Group[B] | June 28–30, 2020 | 651 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 5% | – | 46% | – | 29% | 2%[b] | 18% | ||
| Victory Phones[A] | June 2, 2020 | –[c] | – | – | – | 27% | – | 11% | – | – | ||
| Green and Haslam announce they will not run | ||||||||||||
| Triton/Tennessee Star | April 13–16, 2019 | 1,003 (LV) | ± 3.1% | – | 30% | – | 39% | – | – | ~30% | ||
Results[]
Results by county:
Hagerty
- Hagerty—70–80%
- Hagerty—60–70%
- Hagerty—50–60%
- Hagerty—40–50%
- Hagerty—<40%
Sethi
- Sethi—40–50%
- Sethi—50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Bill Hagerty | 331,267 | 50.75% | |
| Republican | Manny Sethi | 257,223 | 39.41% | |
| Republican | George Flinn, Jr. | 22,454 | 3.44% | |
| Republican | Jon Henry | 8,104 | 1.24% | |
| Republican | Natisha Brooks | 8,072 | 1.24% | |
| Republican | Byron Bush | 5,420 | 0.83% | |
| Republican | Clifford Adkins | 5,316 | 0.81% | |
| Republican | Terry Dicus | 2,279 | 0.35% | |
| Republican | Tom Emerson, Jr. | 2,252 | 0.35% | |
| Republican | David Schuster | 2,045 | 0.31% | |
| Republican | John Osborne | 1,877 | 0.29% | |
| Republican | Roy Dale Cope | 1,791 | 0.27% | |
| Republican | Kent Morrell | 1,769 | 0.27% | |
| Republican | Aaron Pettigrew | 1,622 | 0.25% | |
| Republican | Glen Neal, Jr. | 1,233 | 0.19% | |
| Total votes | 652,724 | 100.00% | ||
Democratic primary[]
Candidates[]
Nominee[]
- Marquita Bradshaw, environmentalist[51][52]
Eliminated in the primary[]
- Gary G. Davis, small business owner, baker, pilot, and perennial candidate[53]
- Robin Kimbrough Hayes, attorney and clergywoman[54]
- James Mackler, attorney, U.S. Army veteran and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2018[3][55]
- Mark Pickrell, entrepreneur, attorney and Baptist deacon[56]
Disqualified from the primary ballot[]
- Tharon Chandler, journalist, economist, and conservationist[57]
Withdrawn[]
- Diana C. Onyejiaka, college professor and consultant[58]
Declined[]
- Andy Berke, incumbent mayor of Chattanooga and former state senator[59]
- Phil Bredesen, former mayor of Nashville and Governor of Tennessee and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018[3] (endorsed James Mackler)[60][non-primary source needed][61]
- John Ray Clemmons, state representative and candidate for Mayor of Nashville in 2019[22]
- Karl Dean, former mayor of Nashville and nominee for Governor of Tennessee in 2018[3]
- Sara Kyle, incumbent state senator[62]
- Tim McGraw, singer-songwriter[55]
- Jason Powell, State Representative, real estate agent, non-profit manager
- Madeline Rogero, former mayor of Knoxville[63]
- Renata Soto, executive director of Conexión Américas[3]
- Jeff Yarbro, minority leader of the Tennessee State Senate[3]
Endorsements[]
James Mackler
Results[]
Results by county:
Bradshaw
- Bradshaw—60–70%
- Bradshaw—50–60%
- Bradshaw—40–50%
- Bradshaw—<40%
Mackler/Davis tie
- Mackler/Davis tie—<40%
Kimbrough
- Kimbrough—<40%
Mackler
- Mackler—<40%
- Mackler—<40–50%
Davis
- Davis—<40%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Marquita Bradshaw | 117,962 | 35.51% | |
| Democratic | Robin Kimbrough Hayes | 88,492 | 26.64% | |
| Democratic | James Mackler | 78,966 | 23.77% | |
| Democratic | Gary G. Davis | 30,758 | 9.26% | |
| Democratic | Mark Pickrell | 16,045 | 4.83% | |
| Total votes | 332,223 | 100.00% | ||
Independents[]
Declared[]
- Yomi Faparusi, physician, attorney, researcher, and former Republican candidate for Tennessee's 4th congressional district in 2014 and 2016[9]
- Jeffrey Grunau, activist[9]
- Ronnie Henley,[9]
- Dean Hill, US veteran, former federal employee, and activist[9]
- Steven Hooper[9]
- Aaron James[9]
- Elizabeth McLeod, conservative activist[9]
- Eric William Stansberry[9]
Withdrawn[]
- Tom Kovach, attorney[73][9]
- Kacey Morgan, freelancer and operations director (endorsed Marquita Bradshaw) (remained on ballot)[74]
General election[]
Predictions[]
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[75] | Safe R | October 29, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[76] | Safe R | October 28, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[77] | Safe R | November 2, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[78] | Safe R | November 30, 2020 |
| Politico[79] | Safe R | November 2, 2020 |
| RCP[80] | Likely R | October 23, 2020 |
| DDHQ[81] | Safe R | November 3, 2020 |
| 538[82] | Safe R | November 2, 2020 |
| Economist[83] | Safe R | November 2, 2020 |
Endorsements[]
Bill Hagerty (R)
- Federal Officials
- Marsha Blackburn, U.S. Senator from Tennessee[30]
- Tom Cotton, U.S. Senator from Arkansas[84]
- Mitch McConnell, Senate Majority Leader from Kentucky[85]
- Mitt Romney, U.S. Senator from Utah, 2012 Republican presidential nominee, and former Governor of Massachusetts[86]
- Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States[87]
- Governors
- Jeb Bush, former Governor of Florida[34]
- Bill Haslam, former Governor of Tennessee and Mayor of Knoxville[34]
- State Officials
- Patsy Hazlewood, State Representative[35]
- Curtis Johnson, Deputy Speaker of the Tennessee House of Representatives[36]
- Bo Watson, State Senator[35]
- Local Officials
- Individuals
- Organizations
Marquita Bradshaw (D)
- Federal Officials
- Joe Biden, 47th Vice President of the United States (2009–2017), United States Senator from Delaware (1973–2009), Democratic nominee for the 2020 United States presidential election[89]
- Ed Markey, U.S. senator from Massachusetts[90]
- Ayanna Pressley, U.S. representative for Massachusetts's 7th congressional district[91]
- Bernie Sanders, U.S. Senator from Vermont and 2020 Democratic presidential primary candidate[92]
- Elizabeth Warren, U.S. senator from Massachusetts and 2020 Democratic presidential primary candidate[93]
- Notable Individuals
- Cori Bush, 2020 Democratic nominee for Missouri's 1st congressional district[94]
- Pete Buttigieg, former Mayor of South Bend, Indiana, and 2020 Democratic presidential candidate[95]
- Organizations
- Center for Biological Diversity[96]
- Democratic Socialists of America[97]
- Friends of the Earth Action[98]
- National Women's Political Caucus[99]
- Sierra Club[100]
- Sunrise Movement[101]
- Working Families Party[102]
- Unions
Polling[]
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Bill Hagerty (R) |
Marquita Bradshaw (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swayable Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine | October 23 – November 1, 2020 | 431 (LV) | ± 6.2% | 61% | 39% | – | – |
| Cygnal | October 20–22, 2020 | 610 (LV) | ± 3.97% | 56% | 36% | 1%[d] | 7% |
Hypothetical polling
- with Bill Hagerty and James Mackler
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Bill Hagerty (R) |
James Mackler (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon | January 28–30, 2020 | 625 (RV) | ± 4% | 55% | 33% | 12% |
- with Manny Sethi and James Mackler
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Manny Sethi (R) |
James Mackler (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon | January 28–30, 2020 | 625 (RV) | ± 4% | 46% | 35% | 19% |
- with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Generic Republican |
Generic Democrat |
Undecided | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cygnal | October 20–22, 2020 | 610 (LV) | ± 3.97% | 58% | 38% | – | 4% |
| East Tennessee State University | April 22 – May 1, 2020 | 536 (LV) | – | 43% | 26% | 31%[e] |
Results[]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Bill Hagerty | 1,840,926 | 62.20% | +0.33% | |
| Democratic | Marquita Bradshaw | 1,040,691 | 35.16% | +3.29% | |
| Independent | Elizabeth McLeod | 16,652 | 0.56% | N/A | |
| Independent | Yomi Faparusi | 10,727 | 0.36% | N/A | |
| Independent | Stephen Hooper | 9,609 | 0.32% | N/A | |
| Independent | Kacey Morgan (withdrawn) | 9,598 | 0.32% | N/A | |
| Independent | Ronnie Henley | 8,478 | 0.30% | N/A | |
| Independent | Aaron James | 7,203 | 0.29% | N/A | |
| Independent | Eric William Stansberry | 6,781 | 0.23% | N/A | |
| Independent | Dean Hill | 4,872 | 0.16% | N/A | |
| Independent | Jeffrey Grunau | 4,160 | 0.14% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 64 | 0.00% | ±0.00% | ||
| Total votes | 2,959,761 | 100.0% | |||
| Republican hold | |||||
Notes[]
- Partisan clients
References[]
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The progressive's win over a field of Democrats, including establishment choice James Mackler, has drawn national attention in a Senate race where the focus had been on a contentious GOP primary. Bradshaw is the first Black woman nominated for statewide office by either major political party in Tennessee, according to the state Democratic Party.
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Bradshaw’s family members are no strangers to politics (though this is her first run for office) — her uncle is state Rep. John DeBerry (D-Memphis), and her mother Doris has been fighting for environmental justice in Memphis for decades. Marquita Bradshaw was by her parents’ side for much of the fight against a government-owned Superfund site in Memphis.
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