2015 Kentucky gubernatorial election
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Turnout | 30% ![]() | |||||||||||||||||||
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![]() County results Bevin: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Conway: 40–50% 50–60% | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Kentucky |
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The 2015 Kentucky gubernatorial election took place on November 3, 2015.[1] Incumbent Democratic Governor Steve Beshear was ineligible to run for a third term due to term limits.[2] Primary elections were held on May 19, 2015.[1] Despite trailing in most pre-election polls, Republican nominee Matt Bevin defeated Democratic nominee Jack Conway by a margin of 52.5% to 43.8% in the general election. Statewide turnout in this election was 30%. With a margin of 8.7%, this election was the closest race of the 2015 gubernatorial election cycle.
Background[]
Kentucky governor Steve Beshear was first elected in 2007. An attorney, he served as a state representative, attorney general, lieutenant governor, ran unsuccessfully for the United States Senate, and he had reputation for being a moderate liberal.[3]
Democratic primary[]
Candidates[]
Declared[]
- Jack Conway, Attorney General of Kentucky (2008–2016) and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010[4]
- Running mate: Sannie Overly, state representative[4]
- Geoff Young, retired engineer and candidate for Kentucky's 6th congressional district in 2014[5]
Declined[]
- Jerry Abramson, White House Director of Intergovernmental Affairs, former lieutenant governor of Kentucky and former mayor of Louisville[7]
- Rocky Adkins, Majority Leader of the Kentucky House of Representatives[8][9]
- Ben Chandler, former U.S. Representative, former attorney general of Kentucky and nominee for governor in 2003[10][11][12][13]
- Luther Deaton, banker[14][15]
- Adam Edelen, State Auditor of Kentucky (ran for re-election)[16][17][18]
- Greg Fischer, Mayor of Louisville[19]
- Alison Lundergan Grimes, Secretary of State of Kentucky and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2014 (ran for re-election)[20]
- Crit Luallen, Lieutenant Governor of Kentucky and former state auditor of Kentucky[21][22]
- Daniel Mongiardo, former Lieutenant Governor of Kentucky and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2004[16]
- Greg Stumbo, Speaker of the Kentucky House of Representatives, former attorney general of Kentucky and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2007[9][23][24][25][26]
- John Yarmuth, U.S. Representative[27]
Endorsements[]
- Statewide elected officials
- Wendell H. Ford, former U.S. Senator and former Governor[28]
- Crit Luallen, Lieutenant Governor of Kentucky and former State Auditor of Kentucky[28]
- Alison Lundergan Grimes, Kentucky Secretary of State[28]
- John Yarmuth, U.S. Representative[28]
- Individuals
- Jim King, Louisville Metro Council President[29]
- David Yates, Louisville Metro Councilman[30]
- Shane Young, Hardin County Commonwealth's Attorney[31]
- Dan Boaz, McCracken County Commonwealth's Attorney[32]
- Les Burgett, Perry County Sheriff[33]
- Bobby Carpenter, Greenup County Judge/Executive[34]
- John Estill, Mason County Attorney[35]
- John Gardner, Barren and Metcalfe Counties Commonwealth's Attorney[36]
- Steve Gold, Henderson County Attorney[37]
- David O'Neill, Fayette County Property Valuation Administrator[38]
- G.L. Ovey, Lyon County Commonwealth's Attorney[39]
- Mike Pryor, Nicholas County Judge/Executive[40]
- Tommy Turner, LaRue County Judge/Executive[41]
- Jim Ward, Letcher County Judge/Executive[42]
- G. Davis Wilson, Bourbon County Attorney[43]
- Elisabeth Jensen, education advocate and nominee for Kentucky's 6th congressional district in 2014[44]
- Members of the Kentucky legislature
- Morgan McGarvey, state senator[45]
- Gerald Neal, state senator[46]
- Ray Jones, state senator[47]
- Dorsey Ridley, state senator[48]
- Rita Smart, state representative[49]
- Larry Clark, State Representative and former Speaker Pro Tem of the Kentucky House of Representatives[50]
- Leslie Combs, state representative[51]
- Mike Denham, state representative[52]
- , state representative[53]
- Kelly Flood, state representative[54]
- Doc Watkins, state representative[55]
- Ed Worley, former Minority Leader of the Kentucky Senate and former state senator[56]
- Jerry Rhoads, former state senator[57]
- Denver Butler, former state representative[58]
- Organizations
Polling[]
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jack Conway |
Geoff Young |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Survey USA | May 5–10, 2015 | 707 | ± 3.5% | 68% | 13% | 19% |
Survey USA | March 3–8, 2015 | 640 | ± 3.9% | 61% | 12% | 27% |
Harper Polling | January 28–31, 2015 | 255 | ± 6.14% | 59% | 13% | 28% |
Results[]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Jack Conway | 140,627 | 78.8% | |
Democratic | Geoff Young | 37,887 | 21.2% | |
Total votes | 178,514 | 100.0% |
Republican primary[]
Candidates[]
Declared[]
- James Comer, Agriculture Commissioner of Kentucky, 2012–2016; and former state representative, 2001-2012[67]
- Running mate: Christian McDaniel, state senator, 2013–present[68]
- Hal Heiner, former member of the Louisville Metro Council, 2003–2010; and nominee for Mayor of Louisville in 2010[69]
- Running mate: K.C. Crosbie, former Lexington-Fayette Urban County Councilwoman, 2006–2014; former finance chairwoman and national chairwoman for the Republican Party of Kentucky, and nominee for Kentucky State Treasurer in 2011[70]
- Will T. Scott, former associate justice of the Kentucky Supreme Court, 2005–2015; nominee for Attorney General of Kentucky in 1995 and for KY-07 in 1988 and 1990[71][72]
- Running mate: Rodney Coffey, former Menifee County Sheriff, 1999–2014; Kentucky Sheriffs Association President, 20142015 [73]
Withdrew[]
- Robert Lee Rosier, U.S. Army veteran[74]
- Running mate: John Yuen, candidate for the State Senate in 2012[74]
Declined[]
- Cathy Bailey, businesswoman and former United States Ambassador to Latvia[75]
- Andy Barr, U.S. Representative[76][77]
- Jess Correll, banker[78]
- Richie Farmer, former Agriculture Commissioner of Kentucky[79][80][81]
- Ernie Fletcher, former governor and former U.S. Representative[82]
- Trey Grayson, former Secretary of State of Kentucky and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010[83]
- Brett Guthrie, U.S. Representative[78][84][85]
- Thomas Massie, U.S. Representative[86]
- Mitch McConnell, U.S. Senator and Senate Majority Leader[87]
- Phil Moffett, businessman, Tea Party activist and candidate for governor in 2011[88][89]
- Rand Paul, U.S. Senator and 2016 presidential candidate[90]
- David L. Williams, judge on the Kentucky Circuit Courts, former president of the Kentucky Senate and nominee for governor in 2011[91]
Endorsements[]
- Individuals
- Jim Bunning, former U.S. Senator[92]
- Julie Denton, state senator[93]
- Anne Northup, former U.S. Representative and candidate for Governor in 2007[93]
- Ron Lewis, former U.S. Representative[94]
- Thomas Massie, U.S. Representative for Kentucky's 4th congressional district[95]
- Ed Whitfield, U.S. Representative[96]
- Organizations
- Associated General Contractors[97]
- Individuals
- Rebecca Jackson, former Jefferson County Judge/Executive and candidate for Governor in 2003[93]
- Organizations
- Kentucky Pastors Action Coalition [98]
Polling[]
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Cathy Bailey |
Matt Bevin |
James Comer |
Hal Heiner |
Will T. Scott |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Survey USA | May 5–10, 2015 | 517 | ± 4.4% | — | 27% | 26% | 25% | 8% | 14% |
Public Policy Polling | May 6–7, 2015 | 501 | ± 4.4% | — | 25% | 28% | 27% | — | 20% |
Triumph Campaigns | March 26, 2015 | 601 | ± 4% | — | 12% | 19% | 33% | 3% | 29% |
Survey USA | March 3–8, 2015 | 520 | ± 4.4% | — | 20% | 20% | 28% | 8% | 25% |
Harper Polling | January 28–31, 2015 | 261 | ± 6.07% | — | 18% | 25% | 19% | 9% | 30% |
Remington Research | January 27–28, 2015 | 1,000 | ± ? | — | 19% | 22% | 18% | 5% | 26% |
Public Policy Polling | August 7–10, 2014 | 383 | ± ? | 11% | 25% | 20% | 18% | — | 26% |
— | — | 22% | 28% | — | 50% | ||||
Public Opinion Strategies | February 26–27, 2014 | 400 | ± 4.9% | — | — | 42% | 14% | — | 13% |
Results[]
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/1d/2015_Kentucky_Republican_primary_county_map.svg/150px-2015_Kentucky_Republican_primary_county_map.svg.png)
- Bevin—51-60%
- Bevin—41-50%
- Bevin—31-40%
- Comer—91-100%
- Comer—81-90%
- Comer—71-80%
- Comer—61-70%
- Comer—51-60%
- Comer—41-50%
- Comer—31-40%
- Comer—21-30%
- Heiner—51-60%
- Heiner—41-50%
- Heiner—31-40%
- Heiner—21-30%
- Scott—61-70%
- Scott—31-40%
On May 19, 2015, Matt Bevin won the Republican primary, defeating second-place finisher James Comer by 83 votes.[62]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Matt Bevin | 70,480 | 32.91% | |
Republican | James Comer | 70,397 | 32.89% | |
Republican | Hal Heiner | 57,951 | 27.10% | |
Republican | Will T. Scott | 15,365 | 7.20% | |
Total votes | 214,187 | 100.00% |
Independents[]
Candidates[]
Declared[]
- Drew Curtis, entrepreneur and founder and CEO of Fark.com[102]
- Running mate: Heather Curtis, COO of Fark.com and wife of Drew Curtis[102]
- Gatewood Galbraith (formerly Terrill Wayne Newman), social worker (distinguish from politician Gatewood Galbraith)[103][104]
- Running mate: Elisabeth Anderson, retired legal secretary
General election[]
Predictions[]
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[105] | Tossup | October 26, 2015 |
Rothenberg Political Report[106] | Tilt D | October 27, 2015 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[107] | Lean D | October 29, 2015 |
Polling[]
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jack Conway (D) |
Matt Bevin (R) |
Drew Curtis (I) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vox Populi | October 26–27, 2015 | 618 | ± 3.9% | 44% | 44% | 6% | 6% |
43% | 46% | 6% | 7% | ||||
Survey USA | October 23–26, 2015 | 798 | ± 3.5% | 45% | 40% | 6% | 10% |
WKU Social Science Research Center | October 19–25, 2015 | 770 | ± 3.5% | 45% | 40% | 7% | 8% |
Mason-Dixon | October 6–8, 2015 | 625 | ± 4% | 43% | 41% | 6% | 10% |
Survey USA | September 22–27, 2015 | 701 | ± 3.8% | 42% | 37% | 7% | 15% |
Survey USA | July 22–28, 2015 | 685 | ± 3.8% | 43% | 38% | 8% | 11% |
45% | 42% | — | 13% | ||||
Public Policy Polling | June 18–21, 2015 | 1,108 | ± 2.9% | 35% | 38% | 6% | 21% |
38% | 40% | — | 22% | ||||
Survey USA | May 5–10, 2015 | 1,677 | ± 2.4% | 48% | 37% | — | 16% |
Survey USA | March 3–8, 2015 | 1,917 | ± 2.3% | 42% | 36% | — | 22% |
Harper Polling | January 28–29, 2015 | 640 | ± 3.87% | 45% | 41% | — | 14% |
Gravis Marketing | January 5–6, 2015 | 608 | ± 4% | 44% | 36% | — | 20% |
Public Policy Polling | August 7–10, 2014 | 991 | ± 3.1% | 39% | 36% | — | 25% |
- Conway vs. Bailey
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jack Conway (D) |
Cathy Bailey (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gravis Marketing | January 5–6, 2015 | 608 | ± 4% | 43% | 30% | — | 27% |
Public Policy Polling | August 7–10, 2014 | 991 | ± 3.1% | 42% | 30% | — | 28% |
- Conway vs. Comer
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jack Conway (D) |
James Comer (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Survey USA | May 5–10, 2015 | 1,677 | ± 2.4% | 45% | 39% | — | 16% |
Survey USA | March 3–8, 2015 | 1,917 | ± 2.3% | 40% | 38% | — | 22% |
Harper Polling | January 28–29, 2015 | 640 | ± 3.87% | 41% | 45% | — | 14% |
Gravis Marketing | January 5–6, 2015 | 608 | ± 4% | 40% | 37% | — | 23% |
Garin-Hart-Yang* | December 19–21, 2014 | 608 | ± 4% | 48% | 36% | — | 16% |
Public Policy Polling | August 7–10, 2014 | 991 | ± 3.1% | 38% | 35% | — | 27% |
- Conway vs. Heiner
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jack Conway (D) |
Hal Heiner (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Survey USA | May 5–10, 2015 | 1,677 | ± 2.4% | 48% | 36% | — | 16% |
Survey USA | March 3–8, 2015 | 1,917 | ± 2.3% | 41% | 38% | — | 21% |
Harper Polling | January 28–29, 2015 | 640 | ± 3.87% | 42% | 44% | — | 14% |
Gravis Marketing | January 5–6, 2015 | 608 | ± 4% | 43% | 34% | — | 22% |
Garin-Hart-Yang* | December 19–21, 2014 | 608 | ± 4% | 51% | 30% | — | 19% |
Public Policy Polling | August 7–10, 2014 | 991 | ± 3.1% | 39% | 32% | — | 28% |
Gravis Marketing | July 17–20, 2014 | 1,054 | ± 3% | 45% | 36% | — | 19% |
- Conway vs. Scott
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jack Conway (D) |
Will T. Scott (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Survey USA | May 5–10, 2015 | 1,677 | ± 2.4% | 48% | 32% | — | 20% |
Survey USA | March 3–8, 2015 | 1,917 | ± 2.3% | 43% | 33% | — | 24% |
Harper Polling | January 28–29, 2015 | 640 | ± 3.87% | 44% | 40% | — | 16% |
- * Poll for the Kentucky Democratic Party
Results[]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Matt Bevin | 511,374 | 52.52% | +17.23% | |
Democratic | Jack Conway | 426,620 | 43.82% | -11.90% | |
Independent | Drew Curtis | 35,597 | 3.66% | N/A | |
Total votes | 973,692 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Republican gain from Democratic |
References[]
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- ^ "We are honored to have Commonwealth's Attorney Dan Boaz's support for our campaign". Twitter. December 17, 2014. Retrieved January 20, 2015.
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- ^ "Sannie & I are grateful for Steve's support. Steve is a dynamic leader for the Henderson community". Twitter. August 22, 2014. Retrieved January 20, 2015.
- ^ "We are honored to have David O'Neill's support for our ticket". Twitter. January 16, 2015. Retrieved January 20, 2015.
- ^ "We are proud to have Commonwealth's Attorney GL Ovey's support for our campaign for Governor & Lt. Governor". Twitter. December 10, 2014. Retrieved January 20, 2015.
- ^ "We are honored to have Nicholas County Judge/Executive Mike Pryor's support for our campaign". Twitter. January 15, 2015. Retrieved January 20, 2015.
- ^ "Grateful for Judge Turner's support for our ticket". Twitter. December 1, 2014. Retrieved January 20, 2015.
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- ^ "Ex-congressman backs Comer's bid for governor". WKYT-TV. October 22, 2014. Archived from the original on January 20, 2015. Retrieved January 20, 2015.
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- ^ "Whitfield Endorses Comer for Governor". West Kentucky Star. October 1, 2014. Retrieved January 20, 2015.
- ^ "We are honored to announce that Kentucky's Associated General Contractors has voted unanimously to endorse the James Comer for Governor campaign..." Facebook. November 18, 2014. Retrieved January 20, 2015.
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- ^ Alan Blinder. "Matt Bevin, Republican, Wins Governor's Race in Kentucky - The New York Times". Nytimes.com. Retrieved 2019-11-06.
External links[]
- 2015 Kentucky elections
- 2015 United States gubernatorial elections
- November 2015 events in the United States
- Kentucky gubernatorial elections