Next Italian general election

Next Italian general election

← 2018 No later than 1 June 2023[a]
All 400 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 200 seats in the Senate of the Republic
Party Leader Current seats Chamber of Deputies Five Star Movement Giuseppe Conte 160 League Matteo Salvini 132 Democratic Party Enrico Letta 93 Forza Italia Silvio Berlusconi 78 Brothers of Italy Giorgia Meloni 36 Italia Viva Matteo Renzi 27 Coraggio Italia Luigi Brugnaro 24 Article One Roberto Speranza 6 Green Europe 5 Action Carlo Calenda 2 Italian Left Nicola Fratoianni 1 More Europe Benedetto Della Vedova 1 Senate of the Republic Five Star Movement Giuseppe Conte 75 League Matteo Salvini 64 Forza Italia Silvio Berlusconi 48 Democratic Party Enrico Letta 39 Brothers of Italy Giorgia Meloni 21 Italia Viva Matteo Renzi 16 Coraggio Italia Luigi Brugnaro 7 Article One Roberto Speranza 1 Green Europe 0 Action Carlo Calenda 1 Italian Left Nicola Fratoianni 1 More Europe Benedetto Della Vedova 1
Incumbent Prime Minister Mario Draghi Independent

The next Italian general election is due to be held in Italy no later than 1 June 2023.^[a]

As a result of the 2020 Italian constitutional referendum, the number of MPs will be reduced in this election. Under the amended Constitution, there will be 400 members of the Chamber of Deputies and 200 elected members of the Senate of the Republic, down from 630 and 315, respectively.

Background[]

In the 2018 Italian general election, no political group or party won an outright majority, resulting in a hung parliament.^[1] On 4 March, the centre-right alliance, in which Matteo Salvini's League emerged as the main political force, won a plurality of seats in the Chamber of Deputies and in the Senate, while the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S) led by Luigi Di Maio became the party with the largest number of votes. The centre-left coalition, led by Matteo Renzi, came third.^[2] As a result, protracted negotiations were required before a new government could be formed.

First Conte Government[]

The talks between the M5S and the League resulted in the proposal of the so-called "government of change" under the leadership of university professor Giuseppe Conte, a law professor close to the M5S.^[3] After some bickering with President Sergio Mattarella,^[4][5] Conte's cabinet, which was dubbed by the media as Western European "first all-populist government", was sworn in on 1 June.^[6]

In August 2019, Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini announced a motion of no confidence against Conte, after growing tensions within the majority.^[7][8] Many political analysts believe the no confidence motion was an attempt to force early elections to improve Lega's standing in Parliament, ensuring Salvini could become the next Prime Minister.^[9] On 20 August, following the parliamentary debate in which Conte harshly accused Salvini of being a political opportunist who "had triggered the political crisis only to serve his personal interest",^[10] the Prime Minister resigned his post to President Sergio Mattarella.^[11]

Second Conte Government[]

On 21 August, Mattarella started the consultations with all the parliamentary groups. On the same day, the national direction of the Democratic Party (PD) officially opened to a cabinet with the M5S,^[10] based on pro-Europeanism, a green economy, sustainable development, the fight against economic inequality and a new immigration policy.^[12] However, the talks with President Mattarella resulted in an unclear outcome; thus, Mattarella announced a second round of consultation for 27 or 28 August.^[13]

Conte during the 2020 Republic Day, wearing a protection mask amid the COVID-19 pandemic which deeply affected Italy

In the days that preceded the second round, a confrontation between the PD and M5S started,^[14] while the left-wing Free and Equal (LeU) announced that they would support a potential M5S–PD cabinet.^[15] On 28 August, the leader of the Democratic Party, Nicola Zingaretti, announced at the Quirinal Palace his favorable position on forming a new government with the Five Stars with Giuseppe Conte at its head.^[16] On same day, Mattarella summoned Conte to the Quirinal Palace for the 29 August to give him the task of forming a new cabinet.^[17] On 3 September, the members of the M5S voted on the so-called "Rousseau Platform" in favor of an agreement with the Democrats, under the premiership of Giuseppe Conte, with more than 79% of votes out of nearly 80,000 voters.^[18] On 4 September, Conte announced the ministers of his new cabinet, which was sworn in at the Quirinal Palace on the following day.^[19]

In 2020, Italy became one of the countries worst affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Conte's government was the first in the Western world to implement a national lockdown to stop the spread of the disease.^[20][21] Despite being widely approved by public opinion, the lockdown was also described as the largest suppression of constitutional rights in the history of the Italian Republic.^[22]

Moreover under Conte's governments, the Italian Parliament approved the so-called "Fraccaro Reform", from the name of the M5S deputy who was the bill's first signatory.^[23] The reform was finally approved by the Parliament, with the fourth and final vote in the Chamber of Deputies on 8 October 2019 with 553 votes in favor and 14 against. In the final vote, the bill was supported both by the majority and the opposition;^[24] only the liberal party More Europe (+Eu) and other small groups voted against.^[25] The reform provided a cut in the number of MPs, which would shrink from 630 to 400 deputies and from 315 to 200 senators.^[26] On 20 and 21 September 2020, Italians largely approved the reform with nearly 70% of votes.^[27]

Draghi Government[]

In January 2021, Renzi's Italia Viva withdrew its support for Conte's government.^[28] Although Conte was able to win confidence votes in the Parliament in the subsequent days, he chose to resign due to failing to reach an absolute majority in the Senate.^[29] After negotiations to form a Conte's third cabinet failed, the former President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, formed a national unity government, composed by independent technocrats and politicians from M5S, Lega, FI, PD, IV and LeU.^[30]

In March 2021, the Secretary of the PD Zingaretti resigned after growing tensions within the PD, with the party's minority accusing him for the management of the government crisis.^[31] Many prominent members of the party asked to former Prime Minister Enrico Letta to become the new leader; after a few days, on 14 March, he was elected as new Secretary by the national assembly.^[32][33] In August 2021, former prime minister Giuseppe Conte was elected president of the Five Star Movement.^[34]

Electoral system[]

After the 2020 Italian constitutional referendum, the Italian electoral law of 2017 (Rosatellum), used in 2018 Italian general election, was initially expected to be replaced entirely or its FPTP single-member districts be redesigned on the Italian territory for the next elections with 600 MPs.^[35][36] The single-member districts changes were eventually approved and published on 30 December in the Italian government gazette Gazzetta Ufficiale: the Chamber of Deputies went down from 232 to 147 districts, the Senate down from 116 to 74.^[37][38]

Date of the election[]

According to articles 60 and 61 of the Italian Constitution the election of both Houses of Parliament must take place every five years and no later than seventy days after the end of the previous legislature.^[39]

Parties and leaders[]

This is a list of the main active parties which would likely participate in the election and are polled in most opinion surveys.

Opinion polls[]

Local regression trend line of poll results from 4 March 2018 to the present day, with each line corresponding to a political party.

Notes[]

References[]