Next Thuringian state election

Next Thuringian state election

← 2019 No later than August–December 2024
All 90 seats in the Landtag of Thuringia 46 seats needed for a majority
Leader Bodo Ramelow Björn Höcke & Stefan Möller Christian Hirte Party Left AfD CDU Leader's seat Erfurt III List List – Last election 29 seats, 31.0% 22 seats, 23.4% 21 seats, 21.7%   Leader Georg Maier Ann-Sophie Bohm-Eisenbrandt & Bernhard Stengele Thomas Kemmerich Party SPD Green FDP Leader's seat –[a] – – List Last election 8 seats, 8.2% 5 seats, 5.2% 5 seats, 5.0%
Incumbent Minister President and Government Bodo Ramelow (Left) Left–SPD–Green

The next Thuringian state election will be held no later than between August and December 2024 to elect the 8th Landtag of Thuringia. The current government is a minority government consisting of The Left, the Social Democratic Party (SPD), and The Greens, led by Minister President Bodo Ramelow of The Left.

As a result of the 2020 Thuringian government crisis, there was a cross-party agreement to hold an early Landtag election on 25 April 2021.^[1] In January 2021, the parties involved agreed to postpone the election to 26 September due to the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany.^[2] All plans for a snap election were later shelved when it became clear there were not sufficient votes to dissolve the Landtag.^[3]

Election date[]

According to § 18 of the Thuringian Electoral Law for the Landtag,^[4] the Landtag election must take place on a Sunday or public holiday at the earliest 57 months after the beginning of the current parliamentary term on 5 February 2020 and at the latest 61 months after, i.e. at the earliest in August 2024 and at the latest December 2024.^[5]

According to the Thuringian Constitution, an early election may be held if, at the request of one-third of its members, the Landtag votes with a two-thirds majority to dissolve itself. This may also occur if the Landtag does not vote confidence in a Minister President within three weeks of a failed vote of confidence in the incumbent. The motion to dissolve the Landtag may only be voted on between the eleven and thirty days after its submission. If passed, the election must then take place within 70 days.

On 21 February 2020, The Left, CDU, SPD, and Greens came to an agreement to schedule a new election for 25 April 2021.^[1] On 14 January 2021, the four parties agreed to postpone the election to 26 September 2021, the same date as the upcoming federal election.^[2]

The vote to dissolve the Landtag was scheduled for 19 July. However, the motion was withdrawn on 16 July after four CDU and two Left members informed party leaders they would vote against it, leaving it clearly short of the required two-thirds majority. Left parliamentary leader Stefan Dittes announced there would not be another effort to dissolve the Landtag, and the red-red-green minority government would continue.^[3][6]

Background[]

Previous election[]

In the previous state election held on 27 October 2019, The Left became the largest party for the first time in any German state, winning 31.0% of votes cast. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) made the largest gains, increasing its voteshare by almost 13 percentage points and became the second largest party with 23.4%. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which had previously been the largest party in the Landtag, lost almost 12 points and fell to third place with 21.7%. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) placed fourth on 8.2%. The Greens narrowly retained their position in the legislature, winning 5.2% of votes. The Free Democratic (FDP) entered the Landtag for the first time since 2009, exceeding the 5% electoral threshold by just 73 votes.^[7]

Incumbent Minister President Bodo Ramelow of The Left had led a coalition government of The Left, SPD, and Greens since 2014. The Left's gains were offset by losses for the SPD and Greens, and the coalition lost its majority.

Government crisis[]

On 5 February, the Landtag narrowly elected the FDP's state leader Thomas Kemmerich as Minister President, with 45 votes to incumbent Bodo Ramelow's 44. Kemmerich was elected with the support of the FDP, CDU and, controversially, the AfD. This was the first time AfD had been involved in the election of a head of state government in Germany. The apparent cooperation of the three parties was viewed by some as breaking the cordon sanitaire around AfD which had been in place since its formation, in which all other parties sought to deny AfD government or political influence, refusing to negotiate or work with them on any level. This sparked major controversy nationwide, with many politicians expressing their outrage, including federal Chancellor and former CDU leader Angela Merkel, eho described it as "unforgivable" and condemned her party's involvement.^[8][9] Kemmerich announced his pending resignation on 6 February, just a day after taking office. He submitted his resignation 8 February, but remained in office in an interim capacity.^[10]

Following discussions, The Left, CDU, SPD, and Greens announced on 21 February that they had reached an agreement to hold a new election for Minister President on 4 March 2020, and a new state election on 25 April 2021. The four parties stated that they would support Ramelow for Minister President, and that he would lead an interim government for the next 13 months until the election is held. This government would comprise the same red-red-green arrangement which governed Thuringia from 2014 to February 2020 but would not seek to pass a budget before the election.^[1] Between them, the four parties hold 63 of the 90 seats in the Landtag (70%), more than the two-thirds required to dissolve the Landtag and trigger an early election. Ramelow was elected Minister President by the Landtag after three rounds of voting on 4 March. In the first two rounds, The Left, SPD, and Greens voted for Ramelow, while AfD voted for Höcke, the CDU abstained, and the FDP did not vote or abstain. In the third round, Höcke withdrew, and Ramelow was elected with 43 in favour, 23 against, and 20 abstentions.^[11]

Parties[]

The table below lists parties currently represented in the 7th Landtag of Thuringia.

Name			Ideology	Leader(s)	2019 result
					Votes (%)	Seats
	Linke	The Left Die Linke	Democratic socialism	Heike Werner Steffen Dittes	31.0%	29 / 90
	AfD	Alternative for Germany Alternative für Deutschland	Right-wing populism	Björn Höcke Stefan Möller	23.4%	22 / 90
	CDU	Christian Democratic Union of Germany Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands	Christian democracy	Christian Hirte	21.3%	21 / 90
	SPD	Social Democratic Party of Germany Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands	Social democracy	Georg Maier	8.2%	8 / 90
	Grüne	Alliance 90/The Greens Bündnis 90/Die Grünen	Green politics	Ann-Sophie Bohm-Eisenbrandt Bernhard Stengele	5.2%	5 / 90
	FDP	Free Democratic Party Freie Demokratische Partei	Classical liberalism	Thomas Kemmerich	5.0%	5 / 90

Campaign[]

Lead candidates[]

On 15 June 2020, the SPD elected Georg Maier as state chairman and lead candidate for the planned 2021 election. This came after previous leader Wolfgang Tiefensee resigned his position.^[12]

In September 2020, former Federal Commissioner for the New States Christian Hirte was elected as state CDU chairman, succeeding Mike Mohring, who had resigned during the government crisis in February.^[13] On 17 November, the state executive nominated parliamentary group leader Mario Voigt as their preferred lead candidate.^[14]

After extended pressure from the federal FDP as well as other state branches, Thomas Kemmerich announced on 11 December that he would not stand as his party's lead candidate in the planned 2021 election.^[15]

Opinion polls[]

Party polling[]

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Linke	AfD	CDU	SPD	Grüne	FDP	Others	Lead
INSA	24–30 Nov 2021	1,000	24	23	15	18	7	7	6	1
INSA	29 Sep–4 Oct 2021	1,074	20	24	15	21	7	8	5	3
2021 federal election	26 Sep 2021	–	11.4	24.0	16.9	23.4	6.6	9.0	8.7	0.6
Infratest dimap	20–23 Jul 2021	1,162	27	22	21	11	6	6	7	5
INSA	9–15 Jul 2021	1,006	27	22	21	9	7	8	6	5
INSA	7–14 Jun 2021	1,006	26	23	22	9	6	7	7	3
INSA	8–16 Mar 2021	1,036	30	23	19	9	8	6	5	7
Infratest dimap	25 Feb–1 Mar 2021	1,000	29	23	22	10	5	6	6	6
INSA	27 Jan–2 Feb 2021	1,000	31	23	22	7	8	6	3	8
INSA	2–5 Nov 2020	1,032	33	22	22	9	6	5	3	11
INSA	5–12 Oct 2020	1,004	33	22	22	8	7	4	4	11
INSA	24 Aug–2 Sep 2020	1,012	33	22	22	9	5	4	5	11
Infratest dimap	30 Jul–4 Aug 2020	1,000	32	20	24	10	6	4	4	8
INSA	15–22 Jun 2020	1,016	35	22	22	8	6	3	3	13
INSA	14–19 May 2020	1,010	34	22	21	8	7	5	3	12
INSA	25–31 Mar 2020	1,018	37	23	18	7	7	4	4	14
INSA	5–9 Mar 2020	1,034	38	25	15	8	6	4	4	13
INSA	10–13 Feb 2020	1,006	40	25	14	7	6	4	4	15
Infratest dimap	7–10 Feb 2020	1,007	39	24	13	10	5	4	5	15
Forsa	6 Feb 2020	1,003	37	24	12	9	7	4	7	13
INSA	5–6 Feb 2020	1,006	34	23	19	6	6	7	5	11
Infratest dimap	21–25 Jan 2020	1,000	32	24	19	8	6	6	5	8
2019 state election	27 Oct 2019	–	31.0	23.4	21.7	8.2	5.2	5.0	4.9	7.6

Minister President polling[]

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size									None/ Unsure	Lead
			Ramelow The Left	Höcke AfD	Mohring CDU	Voigt CDU	Maier SPD	Siegesmund Grüne	Kemmerich FDP	Kindervater Independent
INSA	24 Aug–2 Sep 2020	1,012	42	9	–	7	3	2	5	–	32	33
INSA	5–9 Mar 2020	1,034	56	16		–	–	–	–		21	40
Forsa	6 Feb 2020	1,003	64	–	9				6	3	18	55
Infratest dimap	21–25 Jan 2020	1,000	60	9	19				–	–	10	41

Preferred coalition[]

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Assessment	Linke SPD Grüne			Linke SPD		CDU SPD Grüne			Linke CDU		CDU AfD FDP			CDU AfD
Infratest dimap	30 Jul–4 Aug 2020	1,000	Positive	45			43		36			32		21			19
			Negative	52			52		60			63		76			78
Infratest dimap	21–25 Jan 2020	1,000	Positive	43			–		–			33		–			19
			Negative	54								64					79

Notes[]

References[]

External links[]