2004 United States presidential election in Wisconsin

2004 United States presidential election in Wisconsin

← 2000 November 2, 2004 2008 →
Turnout	72.9% ( 5.9%)[1]
Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush Party Democratic Republican Home state Massachusetts Texas Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney Electoral vote 10 0 Popular vote 1,489,504 1,478,120 Percentage 49.70% 49.32%
County Results Kerry   40-50%   50-60%   60-70%   80-90% Bush   40-50%   50-60%   60-70%
President before election George W. Bush Republican Elected President George W. Bush Republican

Elections in Wisconsin
show Federal government Presidential elections 1848 1852 1856 1860 1864 1868 1872 1876 1880 1884 1888 1892 1896 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 Presidential primaries Democratic 2004 2008 2016 2020 Republican 2008 2012 2016 2020 U.S. Senate elections 1848 1849 1851 1854 1857 1861 1863 1866 1872 1875 1879 1881 1881 sp 1885 1887 1890 1891 1893 1897 1899 1903 1905 1907 sp 1909 1911 1914 1916 1918 sp 1920 1922 1925 sp 1926 1928 1932 1934 1938 1940 1944 1946 1950 1952 1956 1957 sp 1958 1962 1964 1968 1970 1974 1976 1980 1982 1986 1988 1992 1994 1998 2000 2004 2006 2010 2012 2016 2018 2022 2024 U.S. House elections 1848 1850 1852 1854 1856 1858 1860 1862 1863 2nd sp 1864 1866 1868 1870 2nd sp 1872 1874 1876 1878 1880 1882 1884 1886 5th sp 1887 8th sp 1888 1890 1892 1893 4th sp 1894 7th sp 1896 1898 1900 1902 1904 1906 2nd sp 1908 1910 1912 1914 1916 1918 6th sp 11th sp 1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 6th sp 1931 1st sp 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1941 1st sp 1942 1944 1946 1947 2nd sp 1948 1950 1952 1953 9th sp 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1969 7th sp 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1979 6th sp 1980 1982 1984 4th sp 1986 1988 1990 1992 1993 1st sp 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 7th sp 2022
show State government Gubernatorial elections 1848 1849 1851 1853 1855 1857 1859 1861 1863 1865 1867 1869 1871 1873 1875 1877 1879 1881 1884 1886 1888 1890 1894 1896 1898 1900 1902 1904 1906 1908 1910 1912 1914 1916 1918 1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2012 (recall) 2014 2018 2022 State Senate elections 2011 (recall) 2012 (recall) 2016 2018 2020 State Assembly elections 2016 2018 2020 Judicial Supreme Court, 2011 General elections 2000 2008 2010 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
show Ballot measures 2006 Referendum 1
show Green Bay Mayoral elections 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019
show Madison Mayoral elections 1997 (special) 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019
show Milwaukee Mayoral elections 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
v t

The 2004 United States presidential election in Wisconsin took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 10 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Wisconsin was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 0.38% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this a toss-up, or swing state. The state had similar demographics and was a showdown state just like its bordering states: Michigan, Minnesota, and Iowa. On election day, Senator Kerry barely carried the state over President George W. Bush. The results in Wisconsin were nearly identical to the results from four years earlier, when Al Gore squeaked by Bush. As of the 2020 Presidential Election, this would be the most recent time when Wisconsin did not back the overall winning candidate of the Electoral College. Additionally, this was only the third time since 1960 (the other years occurring four years earlier in 2000, along with 1988) it would vote for the losing candidate. This is also the last time a Republican won the presidency without winning Wisconsin and the last time it voted for a losing candidate. Until 2020, this was the last time Wisconsin did not vote for the same candidate as neighboring Iowa.

Primaries[]

• 2004 Wisconsin Democratic presidential primary

Campaign[]

Predictions[]

There were 12 news organizations that made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.^[2]

1. D.C. Political Report: Slight Democrat
2. Associated Press: Toss-Up
3. CNN: Bush
4. Cook Political Report: Toss-Up
5. Newsweek: Toss-Up
6. New York Times: Toss-Up
7. Rasmussen Reports: Toss-Up
8. Research 2000: Toss-Up
9. Washington Post: Battleground
10. Washington Times: Battleground
11. Zogby International: Kerry
12. Washington Dispatch: Bush

Polling[]

Pre-election polling had Bush and Kerry winning polls, with neither candidate grasping a strong lead. The last 3 poll averages showed Bush leading 49% to 46%.^[3]

Fundraising[]

Bush raised $1,993,040.^[4] Kerry raised $1,130,602.^[5]

Advertising and visits[]

Bush visited the state 12 times. Kerry visited the state 14 times.^[6] A total of between $1.3 million to $3.6 million was spent each week.^[7]

Analysis[]

Wisconsin has voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in the last four elections before the sixth time in 2004. The urban centers of Milwaukee and Madison tend to vote strongly Democratic. The suburbs of those cities are politically diverse, but tend to vote Republican. Counties in the western part of the state tend to be liberal, a tradition passed down from Scandinavian immigrants. The rural areas in the northern and eastern part of the state are the most solidly Republican areas in Wisconsin.^{[citation needed]}

The CNN exit polls showed a dead heat between the two. However, the deciding factor for Kerry's victory was union members who voted for him with 62%, while non-members (83% of the population) voted for Bush with just 52% of the vote.^[8]

Results[]

2004 United States presidential election in Wisconsin
Party		Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Democratic	John Forbes Kerry	1,489,504	49.7%	10
	Republican	George Walker Bush (Incumbent)	1,478,120	49.3%	0
	Independent	Ralph Nader	16,390	0.6%	0
	Libertarian	Michael Badnarik	6,464	0.2%	0
	Green	David Cobb	2,661	0.1%	0
	Write Ins		2,117	0.1%	0
	Constitution	Michael Peroutka	869	0.0%	0
	Independent	Walt Brown	471	0.0%	0
	Independent	Roger Calero	411	0.0%	0
Totals			2,997,007	100.00%	10
Voter turnout (Voting age population)					72.4%

Results breakdown[]

By county[]

County	Kerry%	Kerry#	Bush%	Bush#	Others%	Others#
Adams	52.1%	5,447	46.8%	4,890	1.1%	119
Ashland	63.1%	5,805	36.0%	3,313	0.9%	81
Barron	48.9%	11,696	50.3%	12,030	0.9%	211
Bayfield	60.3%	5,845	38.7%	3,754	1.0%	100
Brown	44.6%	54,935	54.5%	67,173	1.0%	1,186
Buffalo	52.7%	3,998	46.1%	3,502	1.2%	91
Burnett	48.3%	4,499	50.9%	4,743	0.8%	79
Calumet	40.7%	10,290	58.2%	14,721	1.0%	265
Chippewa	48.3%	14,751	50.6%	15,450	1.1%	323
Clark	46.1%	6,966	52.7%	7,966	1.3%	193
Columbia	48.4%	14,300	50.6%	14,956	1.0%	299
Crawford	55.0%	4,656	43.5%	3,680	1.5%	123
Dane	66.0%	181,052	33.0%	90,369	1.0%	2,828
Dodge	37.6%	16,690	61.4%	27,201	1.0%	445
Door	47.8%	8,367	50.9%	8,910	1.2%	214
Douglas	65.7%	16,537	33.5%	8,448	0.8%	202
Dunn	52.0%	12,039	46.9%	10,879	1.1%	254
Eau Claire	54.2%	30,068	44.5%	24,653	1.3%	716
Florence	36.5%	993	62.5%	1,703	1.0%	28
Fond du Lac	36.2%	19,216	62.8%	33,291	1.0%	529
Forest	48.7%	2,509	50.6%	2,608	0.7%	36
Grant	50.9%	12,864	48.3%	12,208	0.8%	192
Green	52.5%	9,575	46.6%	8,497	1.0%	176
Green Lake	35.4%	3,605	63.6%	6,472	1.0%	101
Iowa	56.8%	7,122	42.6%	5,348	0.6%	72
Iron	50.4%	1,956	48.6%	1,884	1.0%	39
Jackson	54.0%	5,249	45.1%	4,387	0.9%	90
Jefferson	42.6%	17,925	56.5%	23,776	1.0%	414
Juneau	46.3%	5,734	52.3%	6,473	1.4%	172
Kenosha	52.5%	40,107	46.6%	35,587	1.0%	734
Kewaunee	45.9%	5,175	53.0%	5,970	1.1%	128
La Crosse	53.4%	33,170	45.5%	28,289	1.1%	677
Lafayette	52.5%	4,402	46.8%	3,929	0.7%	57
Langlade	42.9%	4,751	56.3%	6,235	0.8%	88
Lincoln	47.7%	7,484	51.1%	8,024	1.2%	192
Manitowoc	46.8%	20,652	52.1%	23,027	1.1%	481
Marathon	45.4%	30,899	53.5%	36,394	1.1%	766
Marinette	45.8%	10,190	53.3%	11,866	1.0%	214
Marquette	44.7%	3,785	54.3%	4,604	1.0%	88
Menominee	82.6%	1,412	16.8%	288	0.6%	10
Milwaukee	61.7%	297,653	37.4%	180,287	0.9%	4,296
Monroe	45.9%	8,973	53.1%	10,375	1.1%	206
Oconto	43.1%	8,534	55.8%	11,043	1.1%	217
Oneida	47.5%	10,464	51.5%	11,351	1.0%	224
Outagamie	44.6%	40,169	54.3%	48,903	1.1%	978
Ozaukee	33.4%	17,714	65.8%	34,904	0.8%	414
Pepin	53.6%	2,181	45.6%	1,853	0.8%	32
Pierce	51.1%	11,176	47.7%	10,437	1.2%	263
Polk	47.5%	11,173	51.5%	12,095	1.0%	235
Portage	56.1%	21,861	42.5%	16,546	1.4%	554
Price	49.6%	4,349	49.2%	4,312	1.2%	102
Racine	47.5%	48,229	51.6%	52,456	0.9%	884
Richland	47.8%	4,501	51.3%	4,836	0.9%	83
Rock	57.9%	46,598	41.2%	33,151	0.9%	730
Rusk	48.2%	3,820	50.3%	3,985	1.5%	122
St. Croix	44.9%	18,784	54.2%	22,679	0.9%	372
Sauk	51.6%	15,708	47.4%	14,415	1.0%	294
Sawyer	46.7%	4,411	52.4%	4,951	1.0%	91
Shawano	41.2%	8,657	57.9%	12,150	0.9%	192
Sheboygan	44.1%	27,608	55.0%	34,458	0.9%	559
Taylor	40.1%	3,829	58.5%	5,582	1.4%	132
Trempealeau	57.4%	8,075	41.8%	5,878	0.8%	109
Vernon	53.4%	7,924	45.6%	6,774	1.0%	147
Vilas	40.8%	5,713	58.2%	8,155	1.0%	134
Walworth	39.6%	19,177	59.4%	28,754	1.1%	515
Washburn	49.2%	4,705	49.8%	4,762	1.0%	100
Washington	29.3%	21,234	69.9%	50,641	0.8%	592
Waukesha	32.0%	73,626	67.3%	154,926	0.8%	1,811
Waupaca	40.0%	10,792	59.1%	15,941	0.9%	241
Waushara	42.9%	5,257	56.2%	6,888	0.8%	101
Winnebago	46.2%	40,943	52.5%	46,542	1.3%	1,111
Wood	47.3%	18,950	51.4%	20,592	1.3%	529

By congressional district[]

Bush and Kerry each won four congressional districts.^[9]

District	Bush	Kerry	Representative
1st	54%	46%	Paul Ryan
2nd	37%	62%	Tammy Baldwin
3rd	48%	51%	Ron Kind
4th	30%	70%	Jerry Kleczka
			Gwen Moore
5th	63%	36%	Jim Sensenbrenner
6th	56%	43%	Tom Petri
7th	49%	50%	Dave Obey
8th	55%	44%	Mark Andrew Green

Electors[]

Technically the voters of Wisconsin cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Wisconsin is allocated 10 electors because it has 8 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 10 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 10 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 10 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards.

1. Gail Gabrelian
2. Margaret McEntire
3. Jordan Franklin
4. Martha Toran
5. Jim Shinners
6. Jan Banicki
7. Daniel Hannula
8. Steve Mellenthin
9. Glenn Carlson
10. Linda Honold

See also[]

• United States presidential elections in Wisconsin

References[]