2004 United States presidential election in Iowa

2004 United States presidential election in Iowa

← 2000 November 2, 2004 2008 →

Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry Party Republican Democratic Home state Texas Massachusetts Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards Electoral vote 7 0 Popular vote 751,957 741,898 Percentage 49.90% 49.23%

County Results Bush   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90% Kerry   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%

President before election George W. Bush Republican Elected President George W. Bush Republican

Elections in Iowa
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The 2004 United States presidential election in Iowa took place on November 2, 2004, as part of the 2004 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Voters chose seven electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Republican President George W. Bush and his running mate, Vice President Dick Cheney, against Democratic challenger and Senator from Massachusetts John F. Kerry and his running mate, Senator from North Carolina John Edwards. Six third parties were also on the ballot.

Iowa was won by President George W. Bush by a 0.67% margin of victory, or 10,059 votes, despite losing the state to Al Gore four years earlier. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this a swing state. The Democrats had won Iowa in the previous four presidential elections, though only narrowly in 2000. Gore had won the state by only 0.32 percentage points, or 4,144 votes, a much weaker margin compared to the prior three elections. In 1988, Democrat Michael Dukakis won the state by 10.21% even in an otherwise Republican landslide year, and Bill Clinton carried the state by 6.02% in 1992 and 10.34% in 1996. Iowa was one of just two states, along with New Mexico, to vote for Gore in 2000 but flip to Bush in 2004, although it was won both times by narrow margins. Bush became the first Republican to win Iowa since Ronald Reagan had done so in 1984. This is the last time a Republican won Iowa by only a plurality. Until 2020, this was the last time Iowa did not vote for the same candidate as neighboring Wisconsin.

Democratic caucuses[]

• 2004 Iowa Democratic presidential caucuses

Campaign[]

Predictions[]

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.^[1]

1. D.C. Political Report: Lean Democratic
2. Associated Press: Toss-up
3. CNN: Bush
4. Cook Political Report: Toss-up
5. Newsweek: Leans Bush
6. New York Times: Leans Bush
7. Rasmussen Reports: Toss-up
8. Research 2000: Lean Kerry
9. Washington Post: Battleground
10. Washington Times: Battleground
11. Zogby International: Kerry
12. Washington Dispatch: Kerry

Polling[]

Polls showed the state was a pure tossup with neither candidate reaching a consistent lead. The last three polls averaged both candidates at 48%, with the last-second deciders the key to victory.^[2] The final RealClearPolitics average gave Bush leading with a margin of 0.3%, with 47.4% to Kerry at 47.1% and Nader at 1.0%.^[3]

Fundraising[]

Bush raised $671,335.^[4] Kerry raised $449,980.^[5]

Advertising and visits[]

The Kerry campaign visited the state 11 times to Bush's 10 times.^[6] Both campaigns spent between $400,000 to $600,000 each week in television advertising.^[7]

Analysis[]

Kerry's strength in the state lay in the highly-populated counties of Polk (Des Moines), Linn (Cedar Rapids), Scott (Davenport), Johnson (Iowa City), and Black Hawk (Waterloo). Johnson County, home to the University of Iowa, gave Kerry 64.01% of its vote, Kerry's best performance in the state. However, Kerry also did well in a series of rural and small-town counties in northeastern Iowa and along the Mississippi River, many of which had been traditionally Democratic since at least the 1980s.^[8] He won eight of the ten counties along the Mississippi River, including Dubuque County, which had given Gore his margin in the state in 2000. The 1st and 2nd congressional districts were both carried by Kerry, despite being represented by Republicans in Congress.^[9] Dubuque is located within the 1st district while the 2nd district contains Cedar Rapids, Iowa City, and Muscatine.^[10]

However, Bush performed respectably even in areas of Democratic strength; in only two counties did he obtain less than 40% of the vote. And he was able to offset Kerry's strength in the population centers and in the northeast and Mississippi River counties with landslide margins in a series of rural counties in the west of the state, as well as by dominating the state's south. Bush's best performance in the state was in Sioux County, where he won with 85.87% of the vote. His raw vote margin in Sioux County of 11,970 votes alone was greater than his raw vote margin over Kerry statewide.^[11] Bush won three congressional districts in the state: the 3rd district, home to the Democratic city of Des Moines and its Republican suburbs, gave Bush a razor thin 50-50 margin, despite re-electing Democrat Leonard Boswell to Congress. The 4th district also gave Bush a narrow margin, giving him 51% of the vote. The now obsolete 5th district in the western part of the state was home to the Hawkeye State's most Republican areas, having elected Steve King to Congress in 2002; it gave Bush a landslide 21-point margin.

In terms of counties carried, both candidates flipped counties. Bush flipped four that voted for Gore in 2000, while Kerry flipped five that voted for Bush in 2000.^[12]

This election coincided with the 2004 United States Senate election in Iowa, where Republican Chuck Grassley was effortlessly re-elected with 70.83% of the vote.^[13]

Iowa would return to the Democratic column in the next two elections, voting for Barack Obama by 9.54% in 2008 and 5.81% in 2012. However, in 2016, it returned to the Republican column when Donald Trump would win the state by 9.41%, the largest margin of victory for a Republican presidential nominee in the state since Ronald Reagan's in 1980.

Results[]

2004 United States presidential election in Iowa
Party		Candidate	Running mate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Republican	George W. Bush	Richard Cheney	751,957	49.90%	7
	Democratic	John Kerry	John Edwards	741,898	49.23%	0
	Independent	Ralph Nader	Peter Camejo	5,973	0.40%	0
	Libertarian	Michael Badnarik	Richard Campagna	2,992	0.20%	0
	Constitution	Michael Peroutka	Chuck Baldwin	1,304	0.09%	0
	Green	David Cobb	Pat LaMarche	1,141	0.08%	0
	N/A	Write-ins	–	1,094	0.07%	0
	Socialist Workers	Róger Calero	Margaret Trowe	373	0.02%	0
	Socialist Equality	Bill Van Auken	Jim Lawrence	176	0.01%	0
Totals				1,506,908	100%	7
Voter Turnout (Voting age/Registered)						67%/76%

Results breakdown[]

By county[]

County	Kerry	Votes	Bush	Votes	Others	Votes
Adair	43.1%	1,844	56.1%	2,402	0.7%	32
Adams	42.0%	977	56.6%	1,317	1.3%	31
Allamakee	48.8%	3,449	50.0%	3,530	1.2%	83
Appanoose	47.5%	3,063	51.8%	3,340	0.7%	47
Audubon	44.8%	1,608	54.5%	1,958	0.7%	26
Benton	50.0%	6,747	49.3%	6,658	0.7%	96
Black Hawk	55.4%	35,392	43.9%	28,046	0.7%	469
Boone	50.2%	7,027	49.0%	6,870	0.8%	112
Bremer	47.1%	6,025	52.2%	6,665	0.7%	89
Buchanan	53.5%	5,608	45.8%	4,797	0.7%	70
Buena Vista	41.5%	3,520	57.6%	4,887	1.0%	83
Butler	40.1%	3,001	59.1%	4,417	0.8%	57
Calhoun	40.5%	2,243	58.7%	3,255	0.8%	44
Carroll	44.6%	4,689	54.8%	5,762	0.7%	73
Cass	35.5%	2,679	63.6%	4,796	0.9%	68
Cedar	49.0%	4,747	50.2%	4,869	0.8%	78
Cerro Gordo	54.5%	13,372	44.7%	10,960	0.8%	184
Cherokee	44.0%	2,988	55.3%	3,758	0.7%	50
Chickasaw	54.5%	3,708	44.7%	3,040	0.9%	58
Clarke	50.9%	2,323	48.2%	2,200	0.9%	43
Clay	41.3%	3,547	57.0%	4,898	1.7%	143
Clayton	51.7%	4,736	47.0%	4,312	1.3%	120
Clinton	56.0%	13,813	43.2%	10,666	0.8%	205
Crawford	44.5%	3,220	54.6%	3,955	0.9%	67
Dallas	41.5%	10,917	57.7%	15,183	0.7%	193
Davis	44.2%	1,731	54.8%	2,148	1.0%	39
Decatur	46.3%	1,859	52.1%	2,088	1.6%	64
Delaware	45.9%	4,227	53.3%	4,908	0.7%	65
Des Moines	59.7%	12,456	39.4%	8,221	0.9%	197
Dickinson	43.3%	4,140	55.9%	5,337	0.8%	76
Dubuque	56.5%	26,561	42.7%	20,100	0.8%	382
Emmet	46.6%	2,405	52.3%	2,697	1.0%	54
Fayette	49.9%	5,185	49.3%	5,128	0.8%	79
Floyd	53.3%	4,349	45.9%	3,745	0.9%	73
Franklin	42.4%	2,340	56.7%	3,128	1.0%	53
Fremont	38.6%	1,510	60.4%	2,362	1.0%	39
Greene	48.1%	2,459	51.2%	2,618	0.7%	36
Grundy	34.8%	2,386	64.7%	4,429	0.5%	34
Guthrie	43.6%	2,614	55.5%	3,325	0.9%	55
Hamilton	46.7%	3,895	52.4%	4,367	0.9%	73
Hancock	42.1%	2,484	57.0%	3,368	0.9%	53
Hardin	44.9%	4,015	54.5%	4,875	0.7%	59
Harrison	37.8%	2,906	60.9%	4,680	1.2%	94
Henry	43.6%	4,127	55.2%	5,220	1.2%	110
Howard	55.7%	2,614	43.2%	2,028	1.2%	55
Humboldt	40.1%	2,146	59.1%	3,162	0.8%	42
Ida	37.5%	1,415	62.1%	2,342	0.5%	17
Iowa	45.4%	3,841	53.7%	4,544	0.8%	69
Jackson	56.5%	5,656	42.4%	4,242	1.1%	113
Jasper	52.0%	10,430	47.2%	9,462	0.8%	170
Jefferson	54.2%	4,490	44.1%	3,648	1.7%	143
Johnson	64.0%	41,847	34.7%	22,715	1.2%	811
Jones	50.7%	5,054	48.4%	4,834	0.9%	90
Keokuk	41.9%	2,294	56.9%	3,119	1.2%	67
Kossuth	44.6%	4,132	54.5%	5,042	0.9%	84
Lee	56.8%	10,152	41.8%	7,472	1.3%	234
Linn	54.6%	60,442	44.6%	49,442	0.8%	856
Louisa	46.7%	2,297	52.3%	2,572	1.0%	47
Lucas	43.5%	1,987	55.6%	2,543	0.9%	41
Lyon	21.4%	1,303	77.9%	4,751	0.8%	47
Madison	42.2%	3,380	56.7%	4,538	1.1%	86
Mahaska	35.3%	3,790	63.9%	6,858	0.7%	80
Marion	39.4%	6,574	59.8%	9,990	0.8%	132
Marshall	49.3%	9,443	49.9%	9,557	0.9%	164
Mills	33.3%	2,308	65.6%	4,556	1.1%	76
Mitchell	50.8%	2,785	48.3%	2,646	0.9%	49
Monona	47.8%	2,397	51.3%	2,575	0.9%	46
Monroe	46.8%	1,855	52.2%	2,067	1.0%	41
Montgomery	34.2%	1,899	64.8%	3,601	1.0%	56
Muscatine	51.0%	9,542	48.2%	9,020	0.8%	155
O'Brien	30.1%	2,330	68.9%	5,328	0.9%	73
Osceola	28.6%	934	70.3%	2,295	1.1%	37
Page	29.4%	2,211	69.8%	5,243	0.8%	59
Palo Alto	47.8%	2,482	51.5%	2,674	0.7%	35
Plymouth	35.0%	4,278	63.9%	7,810	1.1%	134
Pocahontas	42.2%	1,822	56.6%	2,441	1.2%	50
Polk	51.9%	105,218	47.3%	95,828	0.8%	1,572
Pottawattamie	40.4%	16,906	58.7%	24,558	0.9%	356
Poweshiek	50.0%	5,043	49.2%	4,965	0.8%	83
Ringgold	46.3%	1,286	52.8%	1,466	0.9%	26
Sac	41.2%	2,215	58.2%	3,128	0.6%	31
Scott	50.9%	42,122	48.3%	39,958	0.8%	642
Shelby	35.3%	2,355	63.8%	4,256	0.9%	59
Sioux	13.6%	2,259	85.9%	14,229	0.5%	82
Story	52.2%	23,296	46.6%	20,819	1.2%	537
Tama	49.9%	4,487	49.5%	4,456	0.6%	58
Taylor	39.2%	1,252	59.8%	1,908	0.9%	30
Union	46.0%	2,747	52.9%	3,165	1.1%	66
Van Buren	40.9%	1,568	57.6%	2,211	1.5%	57
Wapello	54.6%	9,125	44.3%	7,403	1.1%	179
Warren	46.5%	10,730	52.7%	12,160	0.7%	163
Washington	43.0%	4,595	55.9%	5,977	1.1%	116
Wayne	44.0%	1,379	55.3%	1,733	0.7%	21
Webster	51.3%	9,561	48.1%	8,959	0.6%	111
Winnebago	45.5%	2,707	53.3%	3,175	1.2%	70
Winneshiek	49.6%	5,354	49.4%	5,324	1.0%	106
Woodbury	48.5%	21,455	50.8%	22,451	0.7%	289
Worth	55.4%	2,286	43.5%	1,795	1.0%	42
Wright	44.4%	2,930	55.0%	3,631	0.6%	42

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican[]

• Cedar (largest city: Tipton)
• Greene (largest city: Jefferson)
• Louisa (largest city: Wapello)
• Winnebago (largest city: Forest City)

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic[]

• Fayette (largest city: Oelwein)
• Jasper (largest city: Newton)
• Jefferson (largest city: Fairfield)
• Poweshiek (largest city: Grinnell)
• Winneshiek (largest city: Decorah)

By congressional district[]

Bush won 3 of 5 congressional districts, including one – the 3rd district – held by a Democrat. Kerry won two. Interestingly, the two carried by Kerry were held by Republicans in Congress.^[14]

District	Bush	Kerry	Representative
1st	46%	53%	Jim Nussle
2nd	44%	55%	Jim Leach
3rd	50%	50%	Leonard Boswell
4th	51%	48%	Tom Latham
5th	60%	39%	Steve King

Electors[]

Iowa voters cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Iowa has 7 electors because it has 5 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 7 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and their running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 7 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia meet in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from Iowa. All were pledged to and voted for Bush and Cheney.^[15]

1. Julie Hosch
2. Velma Huebner
3. Don Racheter
4. Marilyn Bose
5. Don Kass
6. Dorothy Schlitter
7. Wanda Sears

See also[]

• United States presidential elections in Iowa

References[]

• "Canvass Summary: Official Results". State of Iowa. December 6, 2004. Archived from the original (PDF) on November 13, 2007. Retrieved January 20, 2009.
• "Turnout Statistics" (PDF). State of Iowa. December 6, 2004. Retrieved January 20, 2009.