2018 Wisconsin gubernatorial election

2018 Wisconsin gubernatorial election

← 2014 November 6, 2018 2022 →
Turnout	61.2% ( 6.7%)
Nominee Tony Evers Scott Walker Party Democratic Republican Running mate Mandela Barnes Rebecca Kleefisch Popular vote 1,324,307 1,295,080 Percentage 49.5% 48.4%
County results Evers:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80% Walker:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Governor before election Scott Walker Republican Elected Governor Tony Evers Democratic

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The 2018 Wisconsin gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018. It occurred concurrently with a Senate election in the state, elections to the state's U.S. House seats, and various other elections. Incumbent Republican Governor Scott Walker sought re-election to a third term, and was challenged by Democratic candidate and then-Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers, as well as Libertarian Phil Anderson and independent Maggie Turnbull. Evers, along with his running mate Mandela Barnes, managed to defeat Walker and Lieutenant Governor Rebecca Kleefisch in a closely fought and widely watched race, ending unified Republican control of the state.

The result was considered "too close to call" on election night, with Walker and Evers being separated by a mere few hundred votes for much of the night as counties reported their results. Shortly after midnight on November 7, Milwaukee County reported around 46,000 late absentee ballots. From those late ballots, Evers received 38,674 votes, or 84% of the total, and Walker 7,181, giving Evers a narrow lead. The race was called for him shortly after.^[1]

Wisconsin was the only state in the 2018 gubernatorial election cycle to elect a Democratic governor while voting more Republican than the national average.^[a] With a margin of 1.1%, this election was also the second-closest race of the 2018 gubernatorial election cycle, behind only the election in Florida. Walker was one of two Republican incumbent governors to be defeated for re-election in 2018, the other being Bruce Rauner in neighboring Illinois, who had lost decisively to J.B. Pritzker.

Republican primary[]

Governor[]

Candidates[]

Nominated[]

• Scott Walker, incumbent Governor^[2][3][4]

Eliminated in primary[]

• Robert Meyer, businessman and candidate for Mayor of Sun Prairie in 2007^[5]

Endorsements[]

Results[]

Republican primary results^[11]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Scott Walker (incumbent)	417,619	91.6%
	Republican	Robert Meyer	38,347	8.4%
Total votes			455,966	100.0%

Lieutenant Governor[]

Candidates[]

Nominated[]

• Rebecca Kleefisch, incumbent Lieutenant Governor^[12]

Results[]

Republican primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Rebecca Kleefisch (incumbent)	407,420	100.00%
Total votes			407,420	100.00%

Democratic primary[]

Governor[]

The primary election for the Democratic nomination featured a crowded field of candidates. The race was ultimately won by Tony Evers with around 40% of the vote.

Candidates[]

Nominated[]

• Tony Evers, Wisconsin State Superintendent of Public Instruction^[13][14][15]

Eliminated in primary[]

• Matt Flynn, former chair of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin and retired partner at Quarles & Brady^[16]
• Mike McCabe, former executive director of Wisconsin Democracy Campaign and candidate for the State Assembly in 1998^[17][18][19]
• Mahlon Mitchell, president of the Professional Fire Fighters of Wisconsin and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2012^[20]
• Josh Pade, lawyer^[21]
• Kelda Roys, former state representative and candidate for WI-02 in 2012^[22]
• Paul Soglin, Mayor of Madison^[23][24][25]
• Kathleen Vinehout, state senator and candidate for governor in 2012^{[26][27][28][17][29][30]}

Withdrew[]

• Mike Crute, liberal talk radio broadcaster^[31] (endorsed Mike McCabe)
• Michele Doolan, businesswoman^[32] (endorsed Matt Flynn)
• Andy Gronik, businessman^[33][34] (still on ballot; endorsed Kelda Roys)
• Bob Harlow, candidate for CA-18 in 2016^[35] (endorsed Matt Flynn)
• Kurt Kober, businessman^[36][37][16] (running for lieutenant governor)
• Jeff Rumbaugh, disability rights activist.^[31] (endorsed Mike McCabe)
• Dana Wachs, state representative^[38] (still on ballot; endorsed Tony Evers)

Declined[]

• Chris Abele, Milwaukee County Executive^[39][40][41]
• Mark Bakken, businessman^[28][42]
• Peter Barca, State Representative and former U.S. Representative^[26][43]
• Tom Barrett, Mayor of Milwaukee, former U.S. Representative and nominee for governor in 2010 and 2012.^[44][45]
• John T. Chisholm, Milwaukee County District Attorney (endorsed Matt Flynn)^[46][47]
• Kevin Conroy, president and CEO of Exact Sciences^[48][49]
• Timothy Cullen, former state senator^[50]
• Katherine Gehl, former president and CEO of Gehl Foods^[27][51]
• Gordon Hintz, Minority Leader of the State Assembly^[28][17]
• Brett Hulsey, former state representative and candidate for governor in 2014^[52][16][53]
• Ron Kind, U.S. Representative^{[48][54][55][56][57]}
• James Kreuser, Kenosha County Executive^[26][28]
• Joe Parisi, Dane County Executive^[58]
• Mark Pocan, U.S. Representative^[59]
• Jennifer Shilling, Democratic Leader of the State Senate^[48][27][60]

Endorsements[]

Polling[]

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Tony Evers	Matt Flynn	Andy Gronik*	Mike McCabe	Mahlon Mitchell	Josh Pade	Kelda Roys	Paul Soglin	Kathleen Vinehout	Dana Wachs*	Other	Undecided
Emerson College	July 26–28, 2018	282	± 6.3%	30%	5%	–	5%	5%	–	7%	5%	10%	–	–	33%
Marist College	July 15–19, 2018	466	± 5.3%	25%	3%	2%	7%	3%	1%	3%	6%	7%	2%	<1%	41%
Marquette University Archived 2020-03-05 at the Wayback Machine	July 11–15, 2018	305	± 6.6%	31%	5%	–	3%	6%	0%	3%	4%	6%	–	0%	38%
Marquette University	June 13–17, 2018	278	± 6.4%	25%	7%	4%	7%	4%	1%	2%	7%	5%	2%	1%	34%
FM3 Research (D-Soglin)	March 16–19, 2018	601	± 4.0%	30%	6%	2%	4%	6%	–	3%	17%	12%	3%	–	16%
Marquette University	February 25 – March 1, 2018	318	± 7.1%	18%	7%	3%	6%	4%	–	0%	9%	5%	4%	1%	44%
Public Policy Polling (D-Evers)	January 8–10, 2018	747	± 3.6%	29%	5%	2%	5%	5%	–	2%	10%	11%	4%	–	28%

An asterisk (*) denotes that a candidate withdrew before the primary but remains on the ballot.

Results[]

Democratic primary results^[11]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Tony Evers	224,502	41.8%
	Democratic	Mahlon Mitchell	88,077	16.4%
	Democratic	Kelda Roys	68,952	12.8%
	Democratic	Kathleen Vinehout	43,975	8.2%
	Democratic	Mike McCabe	39,745	7.4%
	Democratic	Matt Flynn	31,539	5.9%
	Democratic	Paul Soglin	28,128	5.2%
	Democratic	Josh Pade	1,929	0.4%
	Democratic	Others	10,872	2.0%
Total votes			537,719	100.0%

Lieutenant Governor[]

Mandela Barnes, a former state representative from Milwaukee, defeated opponent Kurt Kober by a 2 to 1 margin for the nomination, becoming the first African American to be nominated by a major party for a Wisconsin gubernatorial ticket.

Candidates[]

Nominated[]

• Mandela Barnes, former state representative^[81][82]

Eliminated in Primary[]

• Kurt Kober, businessman^[83]

Results[]

Democratic primary results^[11]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Mandela Barnes	326,051	68.0%
	Democratic	Kurt Kober	153,698	32.0%
Total votes			479,749	100.0%

Libertarian convention[]

Governor[]

Nominee[]

• Phil Anderson, chairman of the Wisconsin Libertarian Party and Libertarian nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2016^[84]

Endorsements[]

Lieutenant Governor[]

Nominee[]

• Patrick Baird, U.S. Navy veteran^[86]

Green Party primary[]

Governor[]

Candidates[]

Nominated[]

• Michael White

Withdrew[]

• Nick De Leon, pastor (endorsed Matt Flynn)^[87]

Results[]

Green primary results ^[88]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Green	Michael White	817	95.8%
	Green	Others	36	4.2%
Total votes			853	100.0%

Lieutenant Governor[]

Candidates[]

Nominated[]

• Tiffany Anderson

Results[]

Green primary results ^[88]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Green	Tiffany Anderson	793	98.0%
	Green	Others	16	2.0%
Total votes			809	100.0%

Independent candidates[]

Governor[]

• Maggie Turnbull, astrobiologist^[89]

Lieutenant Governor[]

• Wil Losch, Turnbull's running mate

General election[]

Despite the fact that Scott Walker had won three prior races for Governor in 2010, 2012, and 2014 by fairly comfortable margins, his bid for a third term was complicated by rising unpopularity due to his policies concerning public education^[90] and infrastructure. Walker also faced backlash for a deal his administration made with Taiwanese company Foxconn in 2017 to create jobs in the state in exchange for around $4.5 billion in taxpayer subsidies.^[91] In 2018, the deal resulted in around $90 million of funding for roads being diverted to a stretch of I-94 that was set to be near a future Foxconn plant from the rest of state.^[92] The poor condition of many roads around the state^[93] as well as the lack of work being done to redo them prompted a campaign where potholes were being labeled as “Scott”-holes.^[94]

Walker's approval ratings were hobbled further by the unpopularity of Republican U.S. President Donald Trump in Wisconsin.^[95] Walker himself sounded the alarm on this several times in early 2018 after Democrats won two special elections to the Wisconsin State Senate in typically Republican districts^[96][97] and an election to the Wisconsin Supreme Court. In April 2018, Walker warned that Wisconsin was “at risk of a blue wave“ in November.^[98] The Walker campaign generally focused on promoting the popular parts of his record, such as a freeze on tuition at public universities and record low unemployment.^[99]

The result was expected to be close, with a record $93 million spent on the race by the two major campaigns and special interest groups from in and out of the state.^[100] In the end, Walker was ultimately defeated by Democrat Tony Evers, who garnered a slightly more than 1% margin of victory, as Democrats swept every statewide race up for election.

Predictions[]

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[101]	Tossup	October 26, 2018
The Washington Post[102]	Tossup	November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[103]	Lean D (flip)	November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[104]	Tossup	November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[105]	Lean D (flip)	November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[106]	Tossup	November 4, 2018
Daily Kos[107]	Tossup	November 5, 2018
Fox News[108][b]	Lean D (flip)	November 5, 2018
Politico[109]	Tossup	November 5, 2018
Governing[110]	Tossup	November 5, 2018

Polling[]

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Scott Walker (R)	Tony Evers (D)	Phil Anderson (L)	Other	Undecided
Research Co.	November 1–3, 2018	450	± 4.6%	44%	45%	–	3%	9%
Emerson College	October 29–31, 2018	604	± 4.1%	46%	51%	–	2%	1%
Marquette University	October 24–28, 2018	1,154 LV	± 3.2%	47%	47%	3%	–	0%
		1,400 RV	± 3.0%	47%	44%	5%	–	2%
Ipsos	October 12–18, 2018	1,193	± 3.0%	45%	48%	–	2%	5%
Marquette University	October 3–7, 2018	799 LV	± 3.9%	47%	46%	5%	–	1%
		1,000 RV	± 3.6%	47%	43%	7%	–	2%
Marist College	September 30 – October 3, 2018	571 LV	± 4.8%	42%	50%	3%	2%[111]	3%
				43%	53%	–	1%	3%
		781 RV	± 4.1%	42%	49%	3%	3%[112]	4%
				43%	52%	–	1%	3%
Ipsos	September 14–24, 2018	1,109	± 3.0%	43%	50%	–	3%	4%
Marquette University	September 12–16, 2018	614 LV	± 4.4%	44%	49%	6%	–	1%
		800 RV	± 4.0%	43%	47%	7%	–	2%
Public Policy Polling (D-High Ground Action Fund)	September 4–5, 2018	726	± 4.0%	45%	49%	–	–	6%
Suffolk University Archived 2018-11-07 at the Wayback Machine	August 18–24, 2018	500	± 4.4%	44%	46%	2%	1%[113]	7%
Marquette University	August 15–19, 2018	601 LV	± 4.5%	46%	46%	6%	–	2%
		800 RV	± 4.0%	46%	44%	7%	–	3%
Public Policy Polling	August 15–16, 2018	596	± 4.0%	44%	49%	–	–	7%
Emerson College	July 26–28, 2018	632	± 4.2%	41%	48%	–	5%	7%
Marist College	July 15–19, 2018	906	± 3.8%	41%	54%	–	<1%	5%
Marquette University	June 13–17, 2018	800	± 4.0%	48%	44%	–	–	5%
Public Policy Polling (D-Evers)	May 9–10, 2018	644	± 3.9%	45%	49%	–	–	6%

Results[]

Evers won the election by a 1.09% margin.^[114]

Wisconsin gubernatorial election, 2018^[115]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Tony Evers	1,324,307	49.54%	+2.95%
	Republican	Scott Walker (inc.)	1,295,080	48.44%	-3.82%
	Libertarian	Phil Anderson	20,225	0.76%	—
	Independent	Maggie Turnbull	18,884	0.71%	—
	Green	Michael White	11,087	0.41%	—
	Independent	Arnie Enz	2,745	0.10%	—
	Write-in		980	0.04%	—
Plurality			29,227	1.09%	-4.58%
Total votes			2,673,308	100.00%
	Democratic gain from Republican

Results by County[]

Aftermath[]

Despite the close result, Scott Walker was unable to request a recount due to a law he had signed himself two years prior, which requires the margin of difference to be within 1%.^[117]

Lame duck legislative session[]

Early in December 2018, a special legislative session was called by Walker to pass a series of bills to limit the powers of Governor-elect Evers, as well as incoming Democratic State attorney general Josh Kaul who had defeated incumbent Brad Schimel.^[118]

Other bills being considered included restrictions on early voting and the passage of Medicaid work requirements, which Walker had previously held off on due to the election.^[119] A similar law restricting early voting that was passed several years prior had been ruled as unconstitutional.^[120]

The bills were widely denounced by Democrats and others as a “power grab.” Congresswoman Gwen Moore described the move as a “coup” that “hijacked the voters’ will.” ^[121] Walker and other Republicans meanwhile argued that the bills were necessary ”checks on power” and that they did not actually strip any real powers from the executive.^[122] Lawsuits were filed by Evers and various labor unions almost immediately after Walker signed the bills into law.^[123]

See also[]

• 2018 Wisconsin elections
• 2018 United States gubernatorial elections
• 2018 United States elections

Notes[]

References[]

External links[]

• Candidates at Vote Smart
• Candidates at Ballotpedia

Official campaign websites

• Phil Anderson (L) for Governor
• Arnie Enz (WI Party) for Governor
• Tony Evers (D) for Governor
• Robbie Hoffman (I) for Governor
• Maggie Turnbull (I) for Governor
• Scott Walker (R) for Governor
• Michael White (G) for Governor