2006 United States Senate election in Montana

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2006 United States Senate election in Montana
← 2000 November 7, 2006 2012 →
  JonTester2006.jpg Conrad Burns official portrait.jpg
Nominee Jon Tester Conrad Burns
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 199,845 196,283
Percentage 49.2% 48.3%
2006 United States Senate election in Montana results map by county.svg
County results
Tester:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Burns:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
U.S. senator before election

Conrad Burns
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Jon Tester
Democratic

Elections in Montana
Federal government
State government
Ballot measures
  • v
  • t

The 2006 United States Senate election in Montana was held November 7, 2006. The filing deadline was March 23; the primary was held June 6. Incumbent Republican Senator Conrad Burns ran for re-election to a fourth term, but lost to Democrat Jon Tester by a margin of 0.87%, or 3,562 votes out of 406,505 cast. This made the election the second-closest race of the 2006 Senate election cycle, behind only the election in Virginia.

Background[]

Burns was first elected as a United States Senator from Montana in 1988, when he defeated Democratic incumbent John Melcher in a close race, 52% to 48%. Burns was re-elected 62.4% to 37.6%, over Jack Mudd in the Republican Revolution year of 1994. In 2000, Burns faced the well-financed Brian Schweitzer whom he beat 50.6% to 47.2%.

In 2000, George W. Bush carried Montana 58% to 33% in the race for President, but Burns won by 3.4%. Since the direct election of Senators began in 1913, Burns is only the second Republican Montana has elected to the U.S. Senate. Also, for thirty-two straight years, 1952 to 1984, Montana elected only Democratic Senators.

Burns' involvement in the Jack Abramoff scandal made him vulnerable[citation needed]. A SurveyUSA poll released in March 2006 found that 38% of Montanans approved of him, while 52% disapproved of him.[1] Polls against leading Democratic candidates had him below his challengers[citation needed].

Democratic primary[]

Candidates[]

  • Jon Tester, President of the Montana State Senate
  • John Morrison, Montana State Auditor
  • Paul Richards, Montana State Representative
  • Robert Candee, farmer
  • Ken Marcure, activist

Campaign[]

On May 31, 2006, Richards, citing the closeness of the race, and his own position (third) in the polls, withdrew from the race, and threw his support to Tester.[2] Morrison started off strong in the race for the Democratic nomination for Senator, collecting $1.05 million as of the start of 2006, including $409,241 in the last three months of 2005.[3] but Morrison’s advantages in fundraising and name identification did not translate into a lead in the polls.[4] Later, the race was called a "deadlock,"[5] but Tester continued to gather momentum.

Results[]

Democratic primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jon Tester 65,757 60.77
Democratic John Morrison 38,394 35.48
Democratic Paul Richards 1,636 1.51
Democratic Robert Candee 1,471 1.36
Democratic Kenneth Marcure 940 0.87
Total votes 108,198 100.00

Republican primary[]

Candidates[]

  • Conrad Burns, incumbent U.S. Senator
  • Bob Keenan, Montana State Senator
  • Bob Kelleher, perennial candidate
  • Daniel Lloyd Neste Huffman, businessman

Results[]

Republican primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Conrad Burns (incumbent) 70,434 72.26
Republican Bob Keenan 21,754 22.32
Republican Bob Kelleher 4,082 4.19
Republican Daniel Loyd Neste Huffman 1,203 1.23
Total votes 97,473 100.00

General election[]

Candidates[]

  • Conrad Burns (R), incumbent U.S. Senator
  • Stan Jones (L), activist
  • Jon Tester (D), State Senator

Campaign[]

The race was expected to be close, due to Burns' narrow margin of victory in 2000, when he significantly underperformed Republican presidential nominee George W. Bush, and political scandal that he had been involved in. Republican incumbents everywhere were facing more challenging races in 2006 due to the waning popularity of the Republican-controlled Congress and the administration of President George W. Bush. In July 2006, the Rasmussen report viewed Burns as the "second most vulnerable Senator seeking re-election this year", after Pennsylvania’s Rick Santorum.[7]

Senator Conrad Burns of Montana faced a strong challenge from Brian Schweitzer in 2000, being re-elected by 3.4% in a state that went for Bush twice by margins of over 20%[citation needed]. This, combined with the increasing strength of the state Democratic party[citation needed] and accusations of ethical issues related to the Jack Abramoff scandal[citation needed], made this a highly competitive race.

On July 27, Burns was forced to apologize after he confronted out of state firefighters who were preparing to leave Montana after helping contain a summer forest fire and directly questioned their competence and skill, remarks for which he was strongly criticized.[8]

On August 31, in a letter faxed to the office of Montana governor Brian Schweitzer, Burns urged the governor, a Democrat, to declare a fire state of emergency and activate the Montana Army National Guard for firefighting. Schweitzer had already declared such a state of emergency on July 11 — thus, activating the Montana Army National Guard. He issued a second declaration on August 11. A Burns spokesman said the senator was "pretty sure" Schweitzer had already issued such a disaster declaration, but just wanted to make sure. "The genesis of the letter was just to make sure that all the bases were covered," Pendleton said. "This is not a political football. It’s just a cover-the-bases letter and certainly casts no aspersions on the governor."[9]

Debates[]

Predictions[]

Source Ranking As of
Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] Lean D (flip) November 6, 2006
Rothenberg Political Report[11] Lean D (flip) November 6, 2006
Real Clear Politics[12] Tossup November 6, 2006

Polling[]

Source Date Jon
Tester (D) 		Conrad
Burns (R) 		Stan
Jones (L)
Mason Dixon May 2005 26% 50%
Rasmussen September 8, 2005 38% 51%
Mason Dixon December 24, 2005 35% 49%
Rasmussen January 11, 2006 45% 45%
Rasmussen February 13, 2006 46% 46%
Rasmussen March 20, 2006 46% 43%
Rasmussen April 15, 2006 44% 47%
Ayres McHenry & Associates (R) May 2, 2006 48% 42%
Rasmussen May 16, 2006 48% 44%
Mason Dixon May 28, 2006 45% 42%
Lake Research (D) June 20–26, 2006 43% 42%
Rasmussen July 11, 2006 50% 43%
Rasmussen August 10, 2006 47% 47%
Lake Research (D) August 10, 2006 44% 37%
Gallup September 5, 2006 48% 45%
Rasmussen September 13, 2006 52% 43%
Rasmussen September 20, 2006 50% 43%
Mason-Dixon[permanent dead link] October 1, 2006 47% 40% 3%
Reuters/Zogby October 5, 2006 46% 42%
Rasmussen October 11, 2006 49% 42%
Rasmussen October 18, 2006 48% 46%
Montana State University-Billings October 19, 2006 46% 35%
Mason-Dixon/McClatchy-MSNBC October 24, 2006 46% 43%
Harstad Strategic (D) October 25, 2006 48% 42%
Rasmussen October 29, 2006 51% 47%
Reuters/Zogby October 31, 2006 47% 46% 2%
Mason-Dixon/MSNBC-McClatchy November 3, 2006 47% 47% 1%
Rasmussen November 3, 2006 50% 46%
USA Today/Gallup November 4, 2006 50% 41%
OnPoint Polling and Research November 6, 2006 49% 44%

Results[]

2006 United States Senate election in Montana[13]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Jon Tester 199,845 49.16% +1.92%
Republican Conrad Burns (incumbent) 196,283 48.29% -2.27%
Libertarian Stan Jones 10,377 2.55% N/A
Total votes 406,505 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

Due to errors with polling machines, the Montana count was delayed well into Wednesday, November 8. The race was too close to call throughout the night and many pundits predicted the need for a recount. After a very close election, on November 9, incumbent Conrad Burns conceded defeat.[14]

Just before 11:00 AM (MST) on November 8, Jon Tester was declared Senator-elect for Montana in USA Today.[15] At 2:27 PM EST on November 8, CNN projected that Jon Tester would win the race.[16]

Under Montana law, if the margin of defeat is more than 0.25% but less than 0.5%, the losing candidate can request a recount if they pay for it themselves.[17] However, this election did not qualify for a recount because the margin was larger than 0.5%. Burns conceded the race on November 9, and congratulated Tester on his victory.[18]

The race was the closest Senate election of 2006 in terms of absolute vote difference[citation needed]; the closest race by percentage difference was the Virginia Senate election[citation needed].

See also[]

  • 2006 United States Senate elections

References[]

  1. ^ SurveyUSA News Poll #8541
  2. ^ "BillingsGazette.com :: Richards: Tester is best choice". Archived from the original on June 2, 2006. Retrieved June 1, 2006.
  3. ^ BillingsGazette.com :: Burns' fundraising nears $5 million; Morrison's hits $1 million[permanent dead link]
  4. ^ "Politics Home Page : Roll Call". Archived from the original on August 27, 2006. Retrieved June 7, 2006.
  5. ^ helenair.com
  6. ^ Jump up to: a b "2006 Statewide Primary Canvass - June 6, 2006 compiled by Secretary Of State Brad Johnson" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on January 12, 2011. Retrieved April 22, 2011.
  7. ^ "Rasmussen Reports: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a mid-term election". Archived from the original on July 13, 2006. Retrieved July 11, 2006.
  8. ^ "Conrad Burns Issues Apology for Altercation with Firefighters | Missoula | New West Network". Archived from the original on December 26, 2006. Retrieved August 3, 2006.
  9. ^ helenair.com
  10. ^ "Election Eve 2006: THE FINAL PREDICTIONS". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
  11. ^ "2006 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
  12. ^ "Election 2006". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
  13. ^ 2006 Election Statistics
  14. ^ "Sen. Burns Concedes Montana Race". NPR. November 9, 2006. Retrieved April 1, 2018.[dead link]
  15. ^ "Democrat challenger takes Montana". USA Today. November 8, 2006. Retrieved May 27, 2010.
  16. ^ "Democrat wins Montana Senate seat, CNN projects". CNN. Archived from the original on November 8, 2006.
  17. ^ "13-16-211. Recounts allowed if bond posted to cover all costs". Archived from the original on November 10, 2007. Retrieved November 9, 2006.
  18. ^ "Montana's Burns concedes Senate race". USA Today. November 9, 2006. Retrieved May 27, 2010.

External links[]

Official campaign websites (Archived)
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