2010 Arizona gubernatorial election

2010 Arizona gubernatorial election
	County results; Brewer: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80%; Goddard: 50–60% 60–70%
Governor before election; Jan Brewer; Republican	Elected Governor ; Jan Brewer; Republican

The 2010 Arizona gubernatorial election was held on November 2, 2010 to elect the Governor of Arizona. Incumbent Republican Jan Brewer ran for a full term. Party primaries were held on August 24, 2010. Jan Brewer won a full term, defeating Arizona Attorney General and Democratic nominee Terry Goddard 54% to 42%.

Background[]

Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano was term limited and nominated to become Secretary of Homeland Security by President-elect Barack Obama, and was confirmed by the United States Senate on January 20, 2009, resigning as governor the same day.^[1] Since Arizona does not have a lieutenant governor, Republican Secretary of State Jan Brewer was first in the state's gubernatorial line of succession and was sworn in as governor upon Napolitano's resignation. Brewer announced on November 5, 2009 that she would seek a full term in 2010.^[2]

Democratic primary[]

Candidates[]

Declared[]

Terry Goddard, State Attorney General,^[3] former Mayor of Phoenix, and nominee for Governor in 1990

Declined[]

Neil Giuliano, former Mayor of Tempe
Phil Gordon, Mayor of Phoenix

Republican primary[]

The primary to select the 2010 Republican nominee for governor of Arizona was held on August 24, 2010.^[4]^[5]

Candidates[]

Declared[]

Jan Brewer, incumbent Governor

Withdrew[]

Dean Martin, Arizona State Treasurer (dropped out on July 9, 2010 and endorsed Brewer)^[6]
Owen Mills, member of the National Rifle Association Board of Directors (dropped out on July 13, 2010)^[7]

Declined[]

Joe Arpaio, Maricopa County Sheriff^[8]
J.D. Hayworth, former U.S. Representative
John Munger, former Chair of the Arizona Republican Party^[9]
Vernon Parker, Mayor of Paradise Valley (ran for Congress)
Fife Symington, former Governor of Arizona^[10]

Polling[]

Poll source	Dates administered	Jan Brewer (inc.)	Dean Martin*	Buz Mills*
Rasmussen Reports	June 16, 2010	72%	12%	16%
Rasmussen Reports^{[permanent dead link]}	May 17, 2010	45%	18%	18%
Public Policy Polling	April 23–25, 2010	25%	15%	11%
Public Policy Polling	April 23–25, 2010	58%	16%	19%
Rasmussen Reports	April 13, 2010	26%	12%	18%
Rasmussen Reports	March 15, 2010	20%	21%	19%
Rasmussen Reports	January 20, 2010	29%	27%	—
Rasmussen Reports	November 18, 2009	10%	22%	—
Public Policy Polling	September 21, 2009	39%	26%	—

^{* Dropped out of race after entering to seek the nomination}

Results[]

Republican primary results^[5]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Jan Brewer (Incumbent)	479,153	81.53
	Republican	Buz Mills*	51,001	8.68
	Republican	Dean Martin*	36,012	6.13
	Republican	Matthew Jette	19,611	3.34
	Republican	Write-in	1,906	0.32
Total votes			587,683	100

^{* Dropped out prior to primary, but still appeared on ballot}

Libertarian primary[]

Candidates[]

Ronald Cavanaugh
Barry Hess
Bruce Olsen
Alvin Ray Yount

Results[]

Libertarian primary results^[5]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Libertarian	Barry Hess	1,303	43.38
	Libertarian	Bruce Olsen	612	20.37
	Libertarian	Ronald Cavanaugh	547	18.21
	Libertarian	Write-in	299	9.95
	Libertarian	Alvin Ray Yount	243	8.09
Total votes			3,004	100

General election[]

Candidates[]

Jan Brewer (R), incumbent governor
Terry Goddard (D), attorney general
Barry Hess (L)
Larry Gist (G)

Predictions[]

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report^[11]	Likely R	October 14, 2010
Rothenberg^[12]	Lean R	October 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics^[13]	Lean R	November 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[14]	Likely R	October 28, 2010
CQ Politics^[15]	Lean R	October 28, 2010

Polling[]

Poll source	Dates administered	Terry Goddard (D)	Jan Brewer (R)
Rasmussen Reports	October 28, 2010	39%	53%
Public Policy Polling	October 23–24, 2010	44%	52%
BRC Polls	October 11, 2010	35%	38%
Rasmussen Reports	October 3, 2010	39%	55%
Rasmussen Reports	September 7, 2010	38%	60%
Rasmussen Reports	August 25, 2010	38%	57%
Rasmussen Reports	July 21, 2010	37%	56%
Rasmussen Reports	June 29, 2010	35%	53%
Rasmussen Reports	May 17, 2010	39%	52%
Rasmussen Reports	April 27, 2010	40%	48%
Public Policy Polling	April 23–25, 2010	47%	44%
Rasmussen Reports	April 14, 2010	40%	44%
Rasmussen Reports	March 16, 2010	45%	43%
Rasmussen Reports	January 20, 2010	43%	42%
Rasmussen Reports	November 18, 2009	44%	42%
Rasmussen Reports	September 27, 2009	42%	40%
Public Policy Polling	September 7, 2009	46%	36%

Debate[]

On September 1, the first and only debate was held between all four candidates and moderated by Ted Simons. The debate drew national attention after Jan Brewer "stumbled and stammered" through her opening statements. Before the debate the governor had made several comments about there being beheadings in the desert. During the debate Terry Goddard tried to get the governor to admit that it was a false statement. Goddard said quote Jan I'm going to give you an opportunity to admit that was a false statement but of course the governor Steered clear of the question. After the debate reporters were demanding answers, and still she would just not answer the question.^[16] After the debate, Brewer stated that she would do no more debates.^[17]^[18]

Results[]

Arizona gubernatorial election, 2010^[19]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Janice Kay Brewer (inc.)	938,934	54.33%	+18.89%
	Democratic	Samuel Pearson Goddard III	733,935	42.43%	-20.11%
	Libertarian	Barry Hess	38,722	2.24%	+0.27%
	Green	Larry Gist	16,128	0.93%
	Write-ins		362	0.02%
Majority			204,999	11.86%	-15.28%
Turnout			1,728,081
	Republican hold		Swing

References[]

^ "Governor: Napolitano resigns". The Arizona Guardian. January 20, 2009. Archived from the original on July 21, 2011. Retrieved September 2, 2010.
^ Davenport, Paul (November 5, 2009). "Brewer running for full term as Ariz. governor". The Arizona Republic.
^ "Terry Goddard for Governor – Arizona". Terrygoddard.org. 2010-08-17. Retrieved 2010-08-21.
^ "Arizona Candidates List". Arizona SOS. August 3, 2010. Archived from the original on 16 July 2010. Retrieved August 3, 2010.
^ ^a ^b ^c "Arizona Gubernatorial Primary Results". Arizona SOS. August 24, 2010. Archived from the original on 27 August 2010. Retrieved August 27, 2010.
^ Jessica Taylor. "Martin drops challenge to Brewer". Politico.Com. Archived from the original on 1 August 2010. Retrieved 2010-08-21.
^ Jessica Taylor. "Mills drops campaign against Brewer". Politico.Com. Archived from the original on 1 August 2010. Retrieved 2010-08-21.
^ Hensley, JJ (May 3, 2010). "Joe Arpaio won't run for Arizona governor". The Arizona Republic.
^ "Arizona Capitol Times " Blog Archive " Munger drops out of governor's race". Azcapitoltimes.com. Retrieved 2010-08-21.
^ Benson, Matthew; Casey Newton; Mary Jo Pitzl (October 11, 2009). "Political Insider: Symington won't run in '10". The Arizona Republic.
^ "2010 Governors Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
^ "Governor Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
^ "2010 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
^ "The Crystal Ball's Final Calls". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
^ "Race Ratings Chart: Governor". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 5, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
^ "Arizona governor stumbles during debate". NBC News.
^ "Category: DC". Talking Points Memo.
^ Services, Howard Fischer Capitol Media. "Brewer: No more debates – period". Arizona Daily Star.
^ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2013-09-20. Retrieved 2014-01-06.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)

External links[]

Elections at the Arizona Secretary of State
Arizona Governor Candidates at Project Vote Smart
Arizona Governor 2010 from OurCampaigns.com
2010 Arizona Governor General Election: Jan Brewer (R) vs Terry Goddard (D) graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
Election 2010: Arizona Governor from Rasmussen Reports
2010 Arizona Governor Race from Real Clear Politics
2010 Arizona Governor's Race from CQ Politics
Campaign contributions for 2010 Arizona Governor from Follow the Money
Race Profile in The New York Times

Debates

Arizona Governor Debate, C-SPAN, September 1, 2010, full video (58:00)

Official campaign sites

Jan Brewer for Governor (Archived)
Terry Goddard for Governor (Archived)

[1] "Governor: Napolitano resigns". The Arizona Guardian. January 20, 2009. Archived from the original on July 21, 2011. Retrieved September 2, 2010.

[brewer-2] Davenport, Paul (November 5, 2009). "Brewer running for full term as Ariz. governor". The Arizona Republic.

[3] "Terry Goddard for Governor – Arizona". Terrygoddard.org. 2010-08-17. Retrieved 2010-08-21.

[Candidates-4] "Arizona Candidates List". Arizona SOS. August 3, 2010. Archived from the original on 16 July 2010. Retrieved August 3, 2010.

[Results-5] "Arizona Gubernatorial Primary Results". Arizona SOS. August 24, 2010. Archived from the original on 27 August 2010. Retrieved August 27, 2010.

[6] Jessica Taylor. "Martin drops challenge to Brewer". Politico.Com. Archived from the original on 1 August 2010. Retrieved 2010-08-21.

[7] Jessica Taylor. "Mills drops campaign against Brewer". Politico.Com. Archived from the original on 1 August 2010. Retrieved 2010-08-21.

[8] Hensley, JJ (May 3, 2010). "Joe Arpaio won't run for Arizona governor". The Arizona Republic.

[9] "Arizona Capitol Times " Blog Archive " Munger drops out of governor's race". Azcapitoltimes.com. Retrieved 2010-08-21.

[10] Benson, Matthew; Casey Newton; Mary Jo Pitzl (October 11, 2009). "Political Insider: Symington won't run in '10". The Arizona Republic.

[11] "2010 Governors Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.

[12] "Governor Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 28, 2010.

[13] "2010 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 28, 2010.

[14] "The Crystal Ball's Final Calls". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 28, 2010.

[15] "Race Ratings Chart: Governor". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 5, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.

[16] "Arizona governor stumbles during debate". NBC News.

[17] "Category: DC". Talking Points Memo.

[18] Services, Howard Fischer Capitol Media. "Brewer: No more debates – period". Arizona Daily Star.

[19] "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2013-09-20. Retrieved 2014-01-06.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)

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