2018 Maryland gubernatorial election

2018 Maryland gubernatorial election

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Nominee Larry Hogan Ben Jealous Party Republican Democratic Running mate Boyd Rutherford Susan Turnbull Popular vote 1,275,644 1,002,639 Percentage 55.4% 43.5%

County results Hogan:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90% Jealous:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

Governor before election Larry Hogan Republican Elected Governor Larry Hogan Republican

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The 2018 Maryland gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2018. The date included the election of the governor, lieutenant governor, and all members of the Maryland General Assembly. Incumbent governor Larry Hogan and Lieutenant Governor Boyd Rutherford, both Republicans, were reelected to a second term against Democrat Ben Jealous, the former NAACP CEO, and his running mate Susan Turnbull. Hogan thus became the second Republican governor of Maryland to win reelection, the first since 1954.^[1]

Background[]

At the presidential level, Maryland is a staunchly Democratic state due to the large amount of Democratic voters in the Washington metropolitan area and Baltimore City. Maryland has not seen a Republican presidential candidate win its votes since 1988, and the state has not been within 15% since 2004; Hillary Clinton won the state by 26 points over Donald Trump (60% to 34%) in 2016, Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney by 26 points in 2012 (62% to 36%), and Obama defeated John McCain by 25 points in 2008 (62% to 37%).

Hogan was elected governor in 2014, defeating then-lieutenant governor Anthony G. Brown by a margin of 51–47; the result was considered one of the biggest election upsets that year.^[2] Prior to Hogan's victory, Bob Ehrlich, elected in 2002, had been the only Republican elected as Governor of Maryland since Spiro Agnew. However, Ehrlich was defeated for reelection in 2006 by Martin O'Malley and defeated again in 2010, when he faced O'Malley in a rematch.

In April 2018, Hogan had a 68% approval rating, the second-highest approval of any governor in the country, only behind Governor Charlie Baker of Massachusetts, who had a 71% approval rating.^[3] Despite the state's Democratic leaning, Hogan had a high approval rating among all partisan groups (65% approval from Democrats, 64% of Independents, and 81% of Republicans).^[4]

Republican primary[]

Candidates[]

Nominated[]

• Larry Hogan, incumbent governor^[5]

Declined[]

• Barry Glassman, Harford County Executive^[6]
• John Grasso, Anne Arundel County Councilman^[7][8]

Endorsements[]

Results[]

Republican primary results^[40]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Larry Hogan (incumbent)	210,935	100.00%
Total votes			210,935	100.00%

Democratic primary[]

Candidates[]

Nominated[]

• Ben Jealous, former president and CEO of the NAACP^[41]
  • Running mate: Susie Turnbull, former chair of the Maryland Democratic Party and former vice chair of the Democratic National Committee^[42]

Eliminated in primary[]

• Rushern Baker, Prince George's County executive^[43]
  • Running mate: Elizabeth Embry, former Maryland Attorney General Crime Division Chief and candidate for Mayor of Baltimore in 2016^[44]
• Ralph Jaffe, perennial candidate^[45]
  • Running mate: Freda Jaffe, sister of Ralph Jaffe^[46]
• James Jones II^[47]
  • Running mate: Charles Waters^[47]
• Richard Madaleno, State Senator^[48]
  • Running mate: Luwanda Jenkins, businesswoman and former Maryland Special Secretary for Minority Affairs^[49]
• Alec Ross, author and former State Department official^[50]
  • Running mate: Julie Verratti, co-founder of Denziens Brewing Co, former senior advisor at the Small Business Administration, and LGBT political activist.^[51]
• Jim Shea, attorney^[52]
  • Running mate: Brandon Scott, Baltimore City Councilmember^[53]
• Krishanti O'Mara Vignarajah, former policy director to former First Lady Michelle Obama and former State Department official^[54][55]
  • Running mate: Sharon Blake, former president of the Baltimore Teachers Union^[56]

Deceased[]

• Kevin Kamenetz, Baltimore County Executive (deceased May 10, 2018)^[57]
  • Running mate: Valerie Ervin, senior advisor to the Working Families Party and former Montgomery County Councilmember^[58]
  • (Because of Kamenetz' death, Valerie Ervin became a candidate for governor. See under "Withdrew" heading for more information.)

Withdrew[]

• Maya Rockeymoore Cummings, policy consultant and wife of U.S. Representative Elijah Cummings^[59]
• Valerie Ervin, former senior advisor to the Working Families Party and former Montgomery County Councilmember^[60]
  • Running mate: Marisol Johnson, former vice chair of the Baltimore County Board of Education and small businesswoman^[61]
  • (Valerie Ervin, who had been the running mate of Kevin Kamenetz before he died on May 10, became a candidate for governor with Marisol Johnson as running mate on May 17. This came too late to change the primary ballot, so notices were posted at polling places informing voters that votes for Kamenetz and Ervin would be counted as votes for Ervin and Johnson. On June 12, Ervin withdrew from the race.^[62])

Declined[]

• John Delaney, U.S. Representative (ran for President in 2020,)^[63]
• Peter Franchot, State Comptroller^[64][65][66]
• Brian Frosh, Attorney General^[64][65][67]
• Doug Gansler, former attorney general and candidate for governor in 2014^[68][69]
• Ike Leggett, Montgomery County executive^[64][70]
• Maggie McIntosh, state delegate^[52]
• Thomas Perez, chair of the Democratic National Committee, former United States Secretary of Labor, and former Maryland Secretary of Labor^{[71][72][65][73]}
• Stephanie Rawlings-Blake, former mayor of Baltimore^[64][74]
• David Trone, businessman and candidate for MD-08 in 2016 (running for MD-06)^[65][75]
• Heather Mizeur, former state delegate and candidate for governor in 2014^[64][65]
• Joseline Peña-Melnyk, state delegate and candidate for MD-04 in 2016^[76]
• Kenneth Ulman, former Howard County executive and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2014^[64][71]

Endorsements[]

Polling[]

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Rushern Baker	Valerie Ervin	Ben Jealous	Kevin Kamenetz	Richard Madaleno	Jim Shea	Krish Vignarajah	Other	Undecided
Gonzales Research	June 4–10, 2018	505	± 4.5%	25%	7%	23%	–	9%	6%	5%	2%[a]	22%
OpinionWorks	May 29 – June 6, 2018	500	± 4.4%	16%	5%	16%	–	4%	4%	4%	7%[b]	44%
University of Maryland	May 29 – June 3, 2018	532	± 6.0%	16%	8%	21%	–	6%	4%	4%	2%[c]	39%
Mason-Dixon	February 20–24, 2018	500	± 4.5%	26%	–	14%	15%	4%	3%	2%	3%[d]	32%
Goucher College	February 12–18, 2018	409	± 4.8%	19%	–	10%	12%	2%	2%	2%	6%[109]	47%
Gonzales Research	December 27, 2017 – January 5, 2018	501	± 4.5%	24%	–	14%	14%	5%	1%	2%	8%[e]	33%
Mason-Dixon	September 27–30, 2017	400	± 5.0%	28%	–	10%	11%	3%	<1%	1%	1%[f]	46%
Goucher College	September 14–18, 2017	324	± 5.4%	13%	–	6%	8%	2%	2%	1%	22%[g]	44%

Results[]

Democratic primary results^[40]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Ben Jealous	231,895	39.6%
	Democratic	Rushern Baker	171,696	29.3%
	Democratic	Jim Shea	48,647	8.3%
	Democratic	Krish O'Mara Vignarajah	48,041	8.2%
	Democratic	Rich Madaleno	34,184	5.8%
	Democratic	Kevin Kamenetz/Valerie Ervin	18,851	3.2%
	Democratic	Alec Ross	13,780	2.4%
	Democratic	Ralph Jaffe	9,405	1.6%
	Democratic	James Jones	9,188	1.6%
Total votes			585,687	100.0%

Green nomination[]

Candidates[]

Declared[]

• Ian Schlakman, entrepreneur and former co-chair of the Maryland Green Party^[110]
  • Running mate: Annie Chambers, reverend and Baltimore City Resident Advisory Board Member^[110][111]

Results[]

Following the Maryland Green Party's nominating procedure, the delegates of the Coordinating Council, which is the party's State Central Committee, made the decision to nominate the gubernatorial ticket as no other candidate had filed by the party's March 30, 2018 deadline. More than one ticket seeking the nomination would have required the party to conduct a primary, an obligation not mandated by the State Board of Elections for non-principal parties.^[112]

Green State Central Committee Designation[112] April 20 – April 25
Candidate	Delegates in favor	Delegates against	Delegates not voting
Ian Schlakman / Annie Chambers	15	0	5

Libertarian convention[]

Candidates[]

Declared[]

• Shawn Quinn, nominee for governor in 2014 and nominee for the House of Delegates in 2010^[113]
  • Running mate: Christina Smith

Candidate	Votes in favor	Votes against	Not voting
Shawn Quinn / Christina Smith	32	1	0

General election[]

Debates[]

Larry Hogan and Ben Jealous met for their one and only scheduled debate on September 24. The debate was livestreamed in the evening by the Maryland Public Television.^[114]

Predictions[]

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[115]	Likely R	October 26, 2018
The Washington Post[116]	Likely R	November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[117]	Safe R	November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[118]	Likely R	November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[119]	Likely R	November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[120]	Likely R	November 4, 2018
Daily Kos[121]	Likely R	November 5, 2018
Fox News[122][a]	Likely R	November 5, 2018
Politico[123]	Likely R	November 5, 2018
Governing[124]	Likely R	November 5, 2018

Polling[]

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Larry Hogan (R)	Ben Jealous (D)	Other	Undecided
University of Maryland	October 4–7, 2018	648 LV	± 4.5%	58%	38%	0%	3%
		814 RV	± 4.0%	56%	36%	0%	2%
Gonzales Research	October 1–6, 2018	806	± 3.5%	54%	36%	2%[a]	9%
Mason-Dixon	September 24–26, 2018	625	± 4.0%	52%	37%	2%[a]	9%
Goucher College	September 11–16, 2018	472	± 4.5%	54%	32%	2%[a]	9%
Gonzales Research	August 1–8, 2018	831	± 3.5%	52%	36%	1%[b]	11%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Jealous)	July 10–14, 2018	601	± 4.0%	49%	40%	–	11%
Gonzales Research	June 4–10, 2018	800	± 3.5%	51%	34%	–	14%
University of Maryland	May 29 – June 3, 2018	968	± 4.5%	51%	39%	–	10%
Goucher College	April 14–19, 2018	617	± 3.9%	44%	31%	–	22%
Mason-Dixon	February 20–22, 2018	625	± 4.0%	50%	33%	–	17%
Gonzales Research	December 27, 2017 – January 5, 2018	823	± 3.5%	49%	36%	–	15%
Mason-Dixon	September 27–30, 2017	625	± 4.0%	49%	33%	–	18%

Results[]

Maryland gubernatorial election, 2018^[125]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Larry Hogan (incumbent)	1,275,644	55.35%	+4.32%
	Democratic	Ben Jealous	1,002,639	43.51%	-3.74%
	Libertarian	Shawn Quinn	13,241	0.57%	-0.89%
	Green	Ian Schlakman	11,175	0.48%	N/A
	Write-in		1,813	0.08%	-0.18%
Total votes			2,304,512	100.00%	N/A
	Republican hold

Results by congressional district[]

Hogan carried 6 of 8 congressional districts, including 5 held by Democrats. This included the district of then-House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer.

District	Larry Hogan	Ben Jealous	Elected Representative
1st	79.20%	19.69%	Andy Harris
2nd	55.94%	42.90%	Dutch Ruppersberger
3rd	55.80%	43.03%	John Sarbanes
4th	40.29%	58.74%	Anthony G. Brown
5th	51.91%	47.04%	Steny Hoyer
6th	59.41%	39.31%	David Trone
7th	43.87%	54.83%	Elijah Cummings
8th	53.16%	45.76%	Jamie Raskin

See also[]

• Governor of Maryland
• List of Governors of Maryland
• Maryland gubernatorial elections
• Primary elections in Maryland
• Maryland elections
• 2014 Maryland gubernatorial election
• 2018 Maryland House of Delegates election
• 2018 Maryland Senate election
• Maryland Senate
• Maryland House of Delegates

References[]