2018 United States Senate election in Michigan
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| Elections in Michigan |
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The 2018 United States Senate election in Michigan took place on November 6, 2018, in order to elect the Class 1 U.S. Senator from the State of Michigan, concurrently with a gubernatorial election, as well as other elections to the U.S. House of Representatives.
Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow won reelection to a fourth term. On August 7, 2018, John James won the Republican nomination, defeating businessman Sandy Pensler.[1] On May 5, 2018, Marcia Squier received the endorsement and nomination of the Green Party of Michigan at the state convention in Flint.[2]
Stabenow was re-elected by a 6.5% margin and a difference of 275,660 votes,[3] making this the second-closest U.S. Senate election in Michigan since Stabenow was first elected in 2000.[4]
Democratic primary[]
Candidates[]
Nominee[]
Declined[]
- Mike Duggan, Mayor of Detroit
Withdrew[]
- Craig Allen Smith
Endorsements[]
hide
Debbie Stabenow
- Organizations
- EMILY's List[8]
- League of Conservation Voters[9]
- MI List[10]
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare[11]
- Natural Resources Defense Council[9]
- Sierra Club[12]
- Individuals
- Chelsea Handler, actress & television personality[13]
Results[]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Debbie Stabenow (incumbent) | 1,045,450 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 1,045,450 | 100.00% | ||
Republican primary[]
Candidates[]
Nominee[]
Defeated in primary[]
Failed to qualify[]
Declined[]
- John Engler, former governor[19]
- Ted Nugent, musician and political activist (endorsed James)[20]
- Robert Ritchie, better known as musician Kid Rock (endorsed James)[21]
- Bill Schuette, Michigan Attorney General, former U.S. Representative and nominee for U.S. Senate in 1990 (ran for Governor)[22]
- Fred Upton, U.S. Representative[23]
Withdrew[]
- Lena Epstein, businesswoman (running for MI-11)[24]
- Robert P. Young Jr., former Chief Justice of the Michigan Supreme Court (endorsed John James)[25][26]
Endorsements[]
hide
John James
- U.S. President
- U.S. Vice President
- Mike Pence, 48th Vice President of the United States[29]
- U.S. Senators
- Marco Rubio, U.S. Senator from Florida[30]
- U.S. Representatives
- Jack Bergman, U.S. Representative[31]
- Bill Huizenga, U.S. Representative[32]
- Mike Bishop, U.S. Representative (R-MI 8)[33]
- Paul Mitchell, U.S. Representative[34]
- John Moolenaar, U.S. Representative[35]
- Allen West, former U.S. Representative[36]
- U.S. Governors
- Rick Snyder, Governor of Michigan[37]
- Mike Shirkey
- Jim Stamas
- John Proos
- Wayne Schmidt
- Judy Emmons
- Joe Hune
- Rick Jones
- State Representatives[38]
- Laura Cox
- Dave Pagel
- Jim Tedder
- Mary Whiteford
- Joseph Graves
- Dan Lauwers
- Jason Sheppard
- Hank Vaupel
- Holly Hughes
- Bronna Kahle
- Jason Wentworth
- Eric Leutheuser
- Gary Glenn
- Aaron Miller
- Roger Hauck
- Julie Alexander
- Curt VanderWall
- James Lower
- Michele Hoitenga
- Tom Barrett
- Triston Cole
- Steven Johnson
- Lee Chatfield
- Beau LaFave
- Pamela Hornberger
- Pete Lucido
- John Bizon
- Beth Griffin
- Sue Allor
- Roger Victory[41]
- Judges
- Robert P. Young Jr., former Chief Justice of the Michigan Supreme Court[26]
- Cabinet-level Officials
- John R. Bolton, former United States Ambassador to the United Nations, current National Security Advisor[42]
- Individuals
- Robert O'Neill, former U.S. Navy SEAL[43]
- Dean Cain, actor[44]
- Kid Rock, musician[45]
- Hugh Hewitt, talk show host[46]
- Ted Nugent, musician and political activist[47]
- Diamond and Silk, talk show hosts[48]
- Donald Trump Jr., businessman and son of U.S. President Donald Trump[49]
- Sandy Pensler, businessman[50]
- Wayne Wood, former president of the Michigan Farm Bureau[51]
- Local Officials
- L. Brooks Patterson, Executive of Oakland County[52]
- Michael Borkovich, Sheriff of Leelanau County[53]
- Mike Murphy, Sheriff of Livingston County[53]
- Michael Taylor, Sterling Heights Mayor[54]
- Tim Donnellon, Sheriff of St. Clair County[53]
- Howie Hanft, Sheriff of Ogemaw County[53]
- Bob Bezotte, former Sheriff of Livingston County[53]
- Bob Gatt, Novi Mayor[39]
- Mark Northrup, Hudsonville Mayor[55]
- Organizations
- Senate Conservatives Fund[56]
- Right to Life of Michigan[57]
- Associated Builders and Contractors of Michigan[58]
- National Right to Life[59]
- Grand Rapids Area Chamber of Commerce[60]
- Susan B. Anthony List[61]
- Family Research Council Action PAC[62]
- Michigan Chamber of Commerce[63]
- Michigan Cattlemen's Association[41]
- U.S. Chamber of Commerce[64]
- Newspapers
hide
Sandy Pensler
- Rand Paul, U.S. Senator from Kentucky[66]
- Jon Bumstead, state representative[67]
- Chuck Yob, former Republican National Committeeman[67]
hide
Bob Young Jr. (endorsed James)
- Notable Figures
- Ted Nugent, American Singer/Songwriter[68]
- John Engler, Former Governor
- Peter F. Secchia, Former Ambassador to Italy
Debates[]
A debate was held between John James and Sandy Pensler on July 6 and televised by WKAR-TV. It was the only televised debate scheduled between the two candidates.[69]
Polling[]
| Poll source |
Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John James |
Sandy Pensler |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Research | July 30, 2018 | 413 | ± 5.0% | 44% | 30% | – | 26% |
| EPIC-MRA | July 21–22, 2018 | 1,045 | ± 3.1% | 39% | 38% | – | 23% |
| Emerson College | July 19–21, 2018 | 202 | ± 7.3% | 28% | 28% | – | 44% |
| Marist College | July 15–19, 2018 | 337 | ± 6.3% | 30% | 23% | 1% | 46% |
| National Research Inc. (R-Outsider PAC) | July 11–14, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 21% | 28% | 10% | 41% |
| Target-Insyght | June 24–26, 2018 | 400 | ± 5.0% | 29% | 32% | – | 39% |
| Strategic National (R) | June 16–21, 2018 | 1,000 | ± 3.1% | 18% | 33% | – | 49% |
| Strategic National (R) | June 9–10, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 16% | 29% | – | 54% |
| Marketing Resource Group (R-Pensler) | May 28–29, 2018 | 627 | ± 3.8% | 26% | 36% | – | 38% |
| Strategic National (R) | April 21, 2018 | 350 | ± 5.2% | 13% | 26% | – | 61% |
| Strategic National (R) | April 4–5, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 12% | 20% | – | 68% |
| Denno Research | April 2–3, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.0% | 12% | 16% | – | 72% |
| Strategic National (R) | March 19–20, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 17% | 21% | – | 62% |
| showHypothetical polling |
|---|
Results[]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | John James | 518,564 | 54.67% | |
| Republican | Sandy Pensler | 429,885 | 45.32% | |
| Write-in | 57 | <0.01% | ||
| Total votes | 948,506 | 100.00% | ||
Green Party Convention[]
The Green Party of Michigan picked their candidates at a state convention on May 5, 2018.
Declared[]
Withdrew[]
General election[]
Debates[]
- Complete video of debate, October 14, 2018
Fundraising[]
| Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate (party) | Total receipts | Total disbursements | Cash on hand |
| Debbie Stabenow (D) | $17,449,325.17 | $15,720,981.25 | $2,842,613.58 |
| John James (R) | $9,838,137.84 | $7,953,403.16 | $1,884,735.02 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[73] | |||
Predictions[]
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[74] | Likely D | October 26, 2018 |
| Inside Elections[75] | Safe D | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[76] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
| CNN[77] | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[78] | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News[79][b] | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
- Notes
Endorsements[]
hide
Debbie Stabenow (D)
- U.S. Executive Branch officials
- Barack Obama, 44th President of the United States[80]
- Joe Biden, 47th Vice President of the United States[81]
- U.S. Senators
- Gary Peters, U.S. Senator from Michigan[82]
- U.S. Representatives
- Dan Kildee, U.S. Representative[83]
- Brenda Lawrence, U.S. Representative[84]
- Joe Kennedy III, U.S. Representative[85]
- Organizations
- EMILY's List[8]
- Feminist Majority Political Action Committee [86]
- League of Conservation Voters[9]
- MI List[10]
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare[11]
- Natural Resources Defense Council[9]
- Population Connection[87]
- Sierra Club[88]
- United Automobile Workers[89]
- Individuals
- Chelsea Handler, actress & television personality[13]
hide
John James (R)
- U.S. Executive Branch officials
- Donald Trump, President of the United States[27][28]
- Mike Pence, Vice President of the United States[29]
- U.S. Senators
- Marco Rubio, U.S. Senator from Florida[30]
- U.S. Representatives
- Jack Bergman, U.S. Representative (MI-1)[31]
- Bill Huizenga, U.S. Representative (MI-2)[32]
- Mike Bishop, U.S. Representative (MI-8)[33]
- Paul Mitchell, U.S. Representative (MI-10)[34]
- John Moolenaar, U.S. Representative (MI-4)[35]
- Allen West, former U.S. Representative (FL-22)[36]
- U.S. Governors
- Rick Snyder, Governor of Michigan[37]
- Mike Shirkey
- Jim Stamas
- John Proos
- Wayne Schmidt
- Judy Emmons
- Joe Hune
- Rick Jones
- State Representatives[38]
- Laura Cox
- Dave Pagel
- Jim Tedder
- Mary Whiteford
- Joseph Graves
- Dan Lauwers
- Jason Sheppard
- Hank Vaupel
- Holly Hughes
- Bronna Kahle
- Jason Wentworth
- Eric Leutheuser
- Gary Glenn
- Aaron Miller
- Roger Hauck
- Julie Alexander
- Curt VanderWall
- James Lower
- Michele Hoitenga
- Tom Barrett
- Triston Cole
- Steven Johnson
- Lee Chatfield
- Beau LaFave
- Pamela Hornberger
- Pete Lucido
- John Bizon
- Beth Griffin
- Sue Allor
- Roger Victory[41]
- Judges
- Robert P. Young Jr., former Chief Justice of the Michigan Supreme Court[26]
- Cabinet-level Officials
- John R. Bolton, former United States Ambassador to the United Nations, current National Security Advisor[42]
- Individuals
- Robert O'Neill, former U.S. Navy SEAL[43]
- Dean Cain, actor[44]
- Rudy Giuliani, former Mayor of New York City[90][91]
- Kid Rock, musician[45]
- Hugh Hewitt, talk show host[46]
- Mark Levin, lawyer, author, and radio personality[92]
- Ted Nugent, musician and political activist[47]
- Diamond and Silk, talk show hosts[48]
- Jordan Peterson, clinical psychologist and a professor of psychology at the University of Toronto[93]
- Donald Trump Jr., businessman and son of U.S. President Donald Trump[49]
- Sandy Pensler, businessman[50]
- Wayne Wood, former president of the Michigan Farm Bureau[51]
- Local Officials
- L. Brooks Patterson, Executive of Oakland County[52]
- Michael Borkovich, Sheriff of Leelanau County[53]
- Mike Murphy, Sheriff of Livingston County[53]
- Michael Taylor, Sterling Heights Mayor[54]
- Tim Donnellon, Sheriff of St. Clair County[53]
- Howie Hanft, Sheriff of Ogemaw County[53]
- Bob Bezotte, former Sheriff of Livingston County[53]
- Bob Gatt, Novi Mayor[39]
- Mark Northrup, Hudsonville Mayor[55]
- Organizations
- Senate Conservatives Fund[56]
- American Conservative Union[94]
- Right to Life of Michigan[57]
- Associated Builders and Contractors of Michigan[58]
- National Right to Life[59]
- Grand Rapids Area Chamber of Commerce[60]
- Susan B. Anthony List[61]
- Family Research Council Action PAC[62]
- Michigan Chamber of Commerce[63]
- Michigan Cattlemen's Association[41]
- U.S. Chamber of Commerce[64]
- Newspapers
- The Detroit News[65]
- Iron Mountain Daily News[95]
- Daily Press[96]
Polling[]
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Debbie Stabenow (D) |
John James (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Research | November 5, 2018 | 827 | ± 3.4% | 49% | 46% | 1% | 4% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | November 2–5, 2018 | 1,817 | ± 2.3% | 53% | 44% | 1% | 2% |
| Mitchell Research | November 4, 2018 | 701 | ± 3.7% | 53% | 46% | 0% | 1% |
| Change Research | November 2–4, 2018 | 880 | – | 49% | 47% | 3%[97] | – |
| Research Co. | November 1–3, 2018 | 450 | ± 4.6% | 52% | 36% | 1% | 11% |
| Gravis Marketing | October 29–30, 2018 | 764 | ± 3.6% | 54% | 41% | – | 6% |
| Glengariff Group | October 25–27, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 53% | 36% | 3%[98] | 8% |
| Emerson College | October 24–26, 2018 | 822 | ± 3.6% | 52% | 43% | 1% | 4% |
| Mitchell Research | October 25, 2018 | 400 | ± 5.0% | 52% | 46% | 0% | 2% |
| Target-Insyght | October 22–24, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.0% | 53% | 43% | 4%[99] | 1% |
| EPIC-MRA | October 18–23, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 49% | 42% | 5% | 4% |
| The Tarrance Group (R-James) | October 20–22, 2018 | 605 | ± 4.1% | 48% | 41% | 4% | 7% |
| Michigan State University | October 13–22, 2018 | 169 | – | 49% | 42% | – | – |
| Marketing Resource Group | October 14–18, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 53% | 37% | – | 5% |
| Mitchell Research | September 30 – October 7, 2018 | 654 | ± 3.8% | 51% | 42% | – | 8% |
| Glengariff Group | September 30 – October 2, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 53% | 35% | 3% | 10% |
| EPIC-MRA | September 21–25, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 56% | 33% | 5% | 6% |
| Ipsos | September 14–24, 2018 | 1,150 | ± 3.0% | 55% | 35% | 4% | 6% |
| Target-Insyght | September 10–14, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.0% | 55% | 40% | – | – |
| Mitchell Research | September 12–13, 2018 | 1,009 | ± 3.0% | 54% | 41% | – | 5% |
| Strategic National (R) | September 8–9, 2018 | 1,000 | ± 3.1% | 53% | 35% | – | 11% |
| Glengariff Group | September 5–7, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 56% | 33% | 2% | 10% |
| Gravis Marketing | August 14–16, 2018 | 647 | ± 3.9% | 51% | 35% | – | 14% |
| Strategic National (R) | August 13–14, 2018 | 700 | ± 3.7% | 50% | 35% | 2% | 13% |
| The Tarrance Group (R-James) | August 11–14, 2018 | 602 | ± 4.1% | 49% | 38% | 3% | 9% |
| Emerson College | July 19–21, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.3% | 47% | 29% | 8% | 17% |
| Marist College | July 15–19, 2018 | 886 | ± 3.9% | 55% | 37% | 1% | 8% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | June 11 – July 2, 2018 | 978 | ± 5.0% | 54% | 42% | – | 4% |
| Glengariff Group | January 16–19, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 51% | 30% | – | 18% |
| showHypothetical polling |
|---|
Results[]
Although Stabenow ended up winning the election by 6.5 percent, the margin was smaller than expected, considering the polling and past results of Senate elections in Michigan.[4] Part of the relative closeness of the race has been attributed to the Stabenow campaign having run no negative ads against James during the election.[100] Although James won most of Michigan's smaller counties, Stabenow won large margins in urban areas and modest margins in suburban areas. Stabenow trounced James in Wayne County, home of Detroit, and also performed well in Detroit's suburbs. She also easily won in Washtenaw County, home of Ann Arbor and Ingham County, home of Lansing. Kent County, home of Grand Rapids, also narrowly flipped to Stabenow, making this the first Senate election of her career in which she carried the county, and also the only county to flip her direction in 2018, and only the second time (after Carl Levin in 2008) a Democrat had carried the county since Donald Riegle in 1982. In addition to Stabenow's win, Democrats won the previously Republican-held offices of Governor, Secretary of State, and Attorney General, ensuring that as of January 1, 2019, all elected statewide officials would be Democrats.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Debbie Stabenow (incumbent) | 2,214,478 | 52.26% | -6.54% | |
| Republican | John James | 1,938,818 | 45.76% | +7.78% | |
| Green | Marcia Squier | 40,204 | 0.95% | +0.35% | |
| Taxpayers | George Huffman III | 27,251 | 0.65% | +0.09% | |
| Natural Law | John Howard Wilhelm | 16,502 | 0.39% | +0.15% | |
| Write-in | 18 | <0.01% | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 4,237,271 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
References[]
- ^ "John James endorsement from President Donald Trump after primary".
- ^ "Green Party of Michigan Nominating Convention".
- ^ "2018 Michigan Official General Election Results - 11/06/2018". mielections.us.
- ^ Jump up to: a b "Stabenow defeats James in Michigan's U.S. Senate race". Detroit News.
- ^ Demas, Susan J. (October 2, 2015). "Susan J. Demas: Can Republicans finally knock off Debbie Stabenow in 2018?". MLive.com. Retrieved November 20, 2016.
- ^ Everett, Burgess (November 17, 2016). "Reeling Democrats confront brutal 2018 Senate map". Politico. Retrieved November 20, 2016.
- ^ Oosting, Jonathan (February 11, 2017). "Michigan Democrats promise 'fight' at record convention". The Detroit News. Retrieved February 13, 2017.
- ^ Jump up to: a b "EMILY's List Endorses Nine Democratic Women Senators for Re-Election in 2018". EMILY's List. February 10, 2017. Retrieved February 13, 2017.
- ^ Jump up to: a b c d "Major Environmental Groups Endorse Sen. Debbie Stabenow for Re-Election". League of Conservation Voters. May 2, 2018.
- ^ Jump up to: a b "MI List Progressive Women in Politics".
- ^ Jump up to: a b NCPSSM. "Candidates We Endorse and Support".
- ^ "Sierra Club #ClimateVoter Guide: Endorsements". July 16, 2012.
- ^ Jump up to: a b Handler, Chelsea [@ChelseaHandler] (July 17, 2018). "Michigan- your primary is August 7. Please vote. Gretchen Driskell (MI-07) @gdriskell Elissa Slotkin (MI-08) @ElissaSlotkin Ellen Lipton (MI-09) @RepLipton Debbie Stabenow (MI-SEN) @stabenow Gretchen Whitmer (MI-GOV) @gretchenwhitmer Jocelyn Benson – (MI-SOS) @JocelynBenson" (Tweet). Retrieved October 16, 2018 – via Twitter.
- ^ Jump up to: a b "United States Senate election in Michigan, 2018".
- ^ "Metro Detroit businessman John James joins U.S. Senate race".
- ^ Jump up to: a b c "2018 Michigan Unofficial Primary Candidate Listing - 08/07/2018". miboecfr.nictusa.com.
- ^ "Businessman Sandy Pensler announces U.S. Senate run".
- ^ Boothe, Daniel. "Michigan Historic Preservationist Bob Carr announces candidacy for US Senate". Retrieved 2017-10-24.
- ^ Gray, Kathleen (February 19, 2017). "Michigan GOP sees opening for U.S. Senate bid in 2018". Detroit Free Press. Retrieved February 21, 2017.
- ^ "Ted Nugent Considering Running for U.S. Senate". Ultimate Classic Rock.
- ^ McCollum, Brian (October 24, 2017). "Kid Rock: Of course I'm not running for Senate". Detroit Free Press. Retrieved October 24, 2017.
- ^ Nann Burke, Melissa (February 1, 2017). "Rep. Upton considers challenge to Sen. Stabenow". The Detroit News. Retrieved February 7, 2017.
- ^ "U.S. Rep. Fred Upton opts against Senate run".
- ^ "Raczkowski, Epstein enter race to succeed Trott".
- ^ "Young drops out of GOP Senate race in Michigan".
- ^ Jump up to: a b c "Young endorses James in GOP primary for Senate".
- ^ Jump up to: a b Donald J. Trump. ".@JohnJamesMI, who is running in the Republican Primary in the great state of Michigan, is SPECTACULAR! Vote on August 7th. Rarely have I seen a candidate with such great potential. West Point graduate, successful businessman and an African American leader..." Twitter.
- ^ Jump up to: a b Donald J. Trump. "...John is strong on crime and borders, loves our Military, our Vets and our Second Amendment. He will be a star. He has my full and total Endorsement!". Twitter.
- ^ Jump up to: a b Mike Pence. "Proud to support @JohnJamesMI for U.S. Senate. Leaders like John are the FUTURE of the GOP. I know he will be a strong champion of @RealDonaldTrump's agenda. To the great people of Michigan - get out & vote Aug 7 for John!". Twitter.
- ^ Jump up to: a b "Conservative Outsider John James Announces Endorsement of Florida Republican Senator Marco Rubio - John James for Senate". 5 December 2017. Archived from the original on 7 December 2017. Retrieved 6 December 2017.
- ^ Jump up to: a b "Congressman Jack Bergman Endorses John James". John James for Senate. Archived from the original on 2018-08-28. Retrieved 2018-08-28.
- ^ Jump up to: a b "Huizenga Throws Support to James' US Senate Campaign". WHTC. 10 July 2018.
- ^ Jump up to: a b "Mike Bishop Endorses John James for Senate - John James for Senate". 20 November 2017. Archived from the original on 8 December 2017. Retrieved 8 December 2017.
- ^ Jump up to: a b "Rep. Paul Mitchell Endorses John James for U.S. Senate - John James for Senate". 7 November 2017. Archived from the original on 8 December 2017. Retrieved 8 December 2017.
- ^ Jump up to: a b "RELEASE: U.S. Rep. John Moolenaar Endorses John James for U.S. Senate". John James for Senate. Archived from the original on 2018-10-11. Retrieved 2018-10-11.
- ^ Jump up to: a b West, Allen (October 27, 2017). "I wholeheartedly endorse John James for U.S. Senate in Michigan". Allen B. West website. Archived from the original on May 14, 2018.
- ^ Jump up to: a b John James. "Thank you, @OneToughNerd & @RPA_PAC for supporting our mission of protecting the American Dream for future generations!