2021 Liberal Democratic Party (Japan) leadership election

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2021 Liberal Democratic Party leadership election
Liberal Democratic Party of Japan logo.svg
← 2020 29 September 2021[1] 2024 →
  Fumio Kishida 20211004.jpg Taro Kono 20200916.jpg
Candidate Fumio Kishida Taro Kono
Leader's seat Hiroshima-1st Kanagawa-15th
First round 256 (33.6%) 255 (33.4%)
Runoff 257 (60.2%) 170 (39.8%)
  Sanae Takaichi.jpg Noda Seiko (cropped).jpg
Candidate Sanae Takaichi Seiko Noda
Leader's seat Nara-2nd Gifu-1st
First round 188 (24.6%) 63 (8.2%)
Runoff Eliminated Eliminated
2021 Liberal Democratic Party (Japan) Leadership election, round 2.svg
2021 Liberal Democratic Party (Japan) Leadership election, round 1.svg
President before election

Yoshihide Suga

 Elected President

Fumio Kishida

The 2021 Liberal Democratic Party leadership election was held on 29 September 2021 to elect the next President of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan. The winner of the election, Fumio Kishida, became the Prime Minister of Japan, and led the party into the 2021 Japanese general election.[1]

Incumbent party President and Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga announced on 3 September that he would not run for re-election, amid low approval ratings and media reports of dissension within the party.[2] Suga was initially elected President of the LDP in 2020 to serve the rest of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's term after Abe resigned in August 2020 due to health issues.

Former Minister for Foreign Affairs Fumio Kishida won the election in a second round runoff, defeating opponent Taro Kono, the incumbent Minister for Administrative Reform and Regulatory Reform. Kishida's victory was driven by strong support among LDP Diet members, while Kono led polling prior to the election and won the most votes from dues-paying party members. Kishida was confirmed by the Diet as Japan's 100th Prime Minister on 4 October 2021.[3]

Background[]

Shinzo Abe was elected President of the LDP three consecutive times in 2012, 2015 and 2018 following a rule change in 2017 which extended the office's term limit to three consecutive terms instead of two.[4] Abe successfully led the LDP to three consecutive general election victories in 2012, 2014 and 2017 and became the longest-serving Prime Minister in Japanese history.[5] On 28 August 2020, Abe suddenly announced that he would resign as Prime Minister and LDP President following a resurgence of his ulcerative colitis.[6]

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga won the party's special election in September 2020 to serve the remainder of Abe's term as LDP President, with Suga subsequently entering office as Prime Minister on 16 September.[7] Suga had initially announced that he would run for re-election for a full term as LDP President in advance of the 2021 general election.[8] On 3 September 2021, Suga reversed course and announced that he would not run for re-election as LDP President, amid poor approval ratings and media reports of internal dissension within the party regarding Suga's leadership.[7]

Suga's withdrawal from the race as well as the fact that most of the LDP's internal factions have declined to endorse a specific candidate led to the election being described as wide open and unpredictable.[9]

Election procedure[]

The election process for the President of the LDP is established in the "Rules for the Election of President of the Party".[10] In order to officially qualify as a candidate in the election, a candidate must be an LDP member of the National Diet and must receive a nomination from at least 20 fellow LDP Diet members.[10]

The LDP selects its leader via a two-round election involving both LDP members of the Diet and dues-paying party members from across Japan.[11] In the first round, all LDP members of the Diet cast one vote while party member votes are translated proportionally into votes equaling the other half of the total ballots.[11] If any candidate wins a majority (over 50%) of votes in the first round, that candidate is elected President.[11]

If no candidate receives a majority of votes in the first round, a runoff is held immediately between the top two candidates.[12] In the runoff, all Diet members vote again while the 47 prefectural chapters of the LDP get one vote each, with the result of the latter votes determined using the first round results of party members in each prefecture.[12] The candidate who wins the most votes in the runoff is then elected President.[12]

The party's secretary general can decide to organise the election with the rule of the second round only, as was decided in 2020, but didn't as for 2021.[13]

Candidates[]

Declared[]

Candidate(s) Date of birth Current position Party faction Electoral district Reference(s)
Fumio Kishida 20211004.jpg
Fumio Kishida 		(1957-07-29)29 July 1957
(age 64) 		Member of the House of Representatives
(since 1993)
Previous offices held
 Kōchikai
(Kishida)
Flag of Hiroshima Prefecture.svg
Hiroshima 1st district 		[14]
Sanae Takaichi.jpg
Sanae Takaichi 		(1961-03-07)7 March 1961
(age 60) 		Member of the House of Representatives
(since 2005)
Previous offices held
 None
(Widely regarded as an ally of Shinzo Abe)[15]
Flag of Nara Prefecture.svg
Nara 2nd district 		[15]
Tarō Kōno (2017).jpg
Taro Kono 		(1963-01-10)10 January 1963
(age 59) 		Minister for Administrative Reform and Regulatory Reform
(since 2020)
Minister for COVID-19 Vaccinations
(since 2021)
Member of the House of Representatives
(since 1996)
Previous offices held
 Shikōkai
(Asō)
Flag of Kanagawa Prefecture.svg
Kanagawa 15th district 		[16]
Shinzō Abe, Seiko Noda and Tetsuko Kuroyanagi (1) (cropped).jpg
Seiko Noda 		(1960-09-03)3 September 1960
(age 61) 		Member of the House of Representatives
(since 1993)
Previous offices held
 None
Flag of Gifu Prefecture.svg
Gifu 1st district 		[17]

Withdrawn[]

Candidate(s) Date of birth Notable positions Party faction(s) District(s) Announced Withdrew Reference(s)
Yoshihide Suga 20200916.jpg
Yoshihide Suga 		(1948-12-06)6 December 1948
(age 73) 		Prime Minister
(since 2020)
Member of the House of Representatives
(since 1996)
Other offices
 None
Flag of Kanagawa Prefecture.svg
Kanagawa 2nd district 		17 July 3 September
(endorsed Kono)[18] 		[8][19]

Declined[]

Endorsements[]

Endorsements of Fumio Kishida
Members of the National Diet
Prefectural politicians
Municipal politicians
Party factions
Other prominent individuals
Endorsements of Tarō Kōno
Members of the National Diet
Prefectural politicians
Municipal politicians
Party factions
Other prominent individuals
Endorsements of Sanae Takaichi
Members of the National Diet
Prefectural politicians
Municipal politicians
Party factions
Other prominent individuals
Endorsements of Seiko Noda
Members of the National Diet
Prefectural politicians
Municipal politicians
Party factions
Other prominent individuals

Opinion polling[]

Fieldwork date Pollster/Link Sample size Fumio Kishida Sanae Takaichi Tarō Kōno Shigeru Ishiba Seiko Noda Shinjirō Koizumi Yoshihide Suga Undecided/None Notes
25–26 September 2021 Kyodo News[45] 1,014 22.4% 16.2% 47.4% – 3.4% – – 10.7% LDP party members
25 September 2021 Mainichi Shimbun[46] 3,748 18% 28% 47% – 4% – – 3% –
18 September 2021 Mainichi Shimbun[47] 1,043 13% 15% 43% – 6% – – 23% –
17–18 September 2021 Kyodo News[48] 1,028 18.5% 15.7% 48.6% – 3.3% – – 13.9% LDP party members
16 September 2021 Seiko Noda officially announces her candidacy
14 September 2021 Shigeru Ishiba announces that he will not run for the LDP leadership; Shinjirō Koizumi announces that he will not run for the LDP leadership and will back Taro Kono
11–12 September 2021 Asahi Shimbun[49] 1,477 14% 8% 33% 16% 3% – – 26% –
9–11 September 2021 Nikkei Asia[50] N/A 14% 7% 27% 17% – – – 35% –
10 September 2021 Taro Kono officially announces his candidacy
8 September 2021 Sanae Takaichi officially announces her candidacy
4–5 September 2021 Kyodo News[51] 1,071 18.8% 4% 31.9% 26.6% 4.4% – – 14.3% –
4–5 September 2021 Yomiuri Shimbun[52] 1,142 12% – 23% 21% – 11% – 33% –
3 September 2021 Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga withdraws from the election; Taro Kono conveys privately to LDP members that he will run; and Seiko Noda expresses her willingness to run
27–29 August 2021 Nikkei Asia 1,025 13% 3% 16% 15.5% – �� 11% 41.5% "Preferred Leader of the LDP"
14% – 18% 12% – – 20% 36% "Preferred Prime Minister"
26 August 2021 Fumio Kishida announces his candidacy; and Sanae Takaichi expresses her willingness to run in the LDP presidential election.

Results[]

Results[53][54]
Candidate 1st Round 2nd Round
Diet members Party members Total points Diet members Prefectural chapters Total points
Votes cast % Popular votes % Allocated votes % Total votes % Votes cast % Votes cast % Total votes %
Fumio Kishida 146 38.42 219,338 28.86 110 28.80 256 33.60 249 65.53 8 17.02 257 60.19
Taro Kono 86 22.63 335,046 44.08 169 44.24 255 33.46 131 34.47 39 82.98 170 39.81
Sanae Takaichi 114 30.00 147,764 19.44 74 19.37 188 24.67 Eliminated
Seiko Noda 34 8.95 57,927 7.62 29 7.59 63 8.27 Eliminated
Total 380 100 760,075 100 382 100 762 100 380 100 47 100 427 100

Aftermath[]

After Prime Minister Suga announced his resignation, Kono was heavily favored to win the election as he was in first place among many LDP polls leading up to the election.[55] His campaign was endorsed by Suga and other high ranking LDP members,[56] but Kishida narrowly won the first round of the election and ultimately defeated Kono in the run-off.[53][54]

After being elected, Kishida's victory was labelled as a win for the party's "technocrats establishment".[57] Kishida was seen by many LDP members as a stable choice to succeed Suga rather than a rapid change.[57][58] Kono was seen as a candidate of change.[58] Kishida vowed not to increase the consumption tax rates in Japan and reviewing the pension and health-care system in the country.[57] He has said that his main focus would be to focus on income redistribution to address income inequality.[57]

U.S. President Joe Biden congratulated Kishida and looked "forward to working with [Kishida] to strengthen our cooperation in the years ahead".[59]

President of Taiwan Tsai Ing-wen congratulated Kishida after he was elected Prime Minister of Japan.[60]

Notes[]

  1. ^ Deceased since 17 September 2021.

References[]

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External links[]

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