2021 Japanese general election

2021 Japanese general election

← 2017 On or before 28 November 2021[1]
All 465 seats to the House of Representatives of Japan 233 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Leader TBD Yukio Edano Natsuo Yamaguchi Party Liberal Democratic Constitutional Democratic Komeito Leader since N/A 11 September 2020[a] 8 September 2009 Leader's seat N/A Saitama-5th Not contesting (Councillor) Last election 285 seats, 33.28% 55 seats, 19.88% 29 seats, 12.51% Current seats 277 110 29 Seats needed 123 204   Leader Kazuo Shii Ichirō Matsui Toranosuke Katayama Yuichiro Tamaki Party Communist Innovation Democratic for the People Leader since 24 November 2000 2 November 2015 18 December 2020 Leader's seat Minami-Kantō PR Not contesting (Mayor of Osaka) Kagawa-2nd Last election 12 seats, 7.90% 11 seats, 6.07% New party[b] Current seats 12 10 7 Seats needed 221 223 226   Leader Mizuho Fukushima Takashi Tachibana Party Social Democratic NHK Party Leader since 22 February 2020 17 June 2013 Leader's seat Not contesting (Councillor) Not contesting (Not in office) Last election 2 seats, 1.69% 0 seats, 0.00% Current seats 1 1 Seats needed 232 232
Parliamentary districts not including proportional blocks
Incumbent Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga Liberal Democratic

The 49th general election of members of the House of Representatives (Japanese: 第49回衆議院議員総選挙, Hepburn: dai-yonjūkyūkai Shūgiin giin sōsenkyo) is scheduled on or before 28 November 2021,^[2] as required by the Constitution of Japan. Voting will take place in all Representatives constituencies of Japan including proportional blocks, in order to appoint Members of Diet to seats in the House of Representatives, the lower house of the National Diet of Japan. As the cabinet has to resign after a general House of Representatives election in the first post-election Diet session (Constitution, Article 70), the lower house election will also lead to a new designation election of the Prime Minister in the Diet, and the appointment of a new cabinet (even if the same ministers are re-appointed). It will be the first general election in the Reiwa era.

Election date[]

Under the post-occupation interpretation of Article 7 of the Constitution, the cabinet may instruct the Emperor to dissolve the House of Representatives before the end of term at will. Elections must be held within 40 days after dissolution.^[3] The only time in post-war history that the House of Representatives was not dissolved before the end of its term was in 1976. If the House of Representatives completes a full four-year term, the election must be held within 30 days before that,^[4] unless the Diet is invoked, in session or about to be closed at the time.

After the withdrawal of the incumbent party leader-prime minister from the LDP leadership race, it is likely that another extraordinary session of the National Diet is necessary in early October to elect a new prime minister. Depending on when that Diet session closes and if and when the new cabinet dissolves the House of Representatives, possible election dates range from late October to 14 November without dissolution or up to 28 November with dissolution. If the election is held in late October or November, the 2021 election would be the first in post-war history to be held not only at, but after the actual end of term (21 October).^[5][6] As of early September, 7 or 14 November are considered "reasonable" or "preferable" by anonymous LDP MPs.^[7]

Previous considerations[]

With the 2020 resignation of Shinzo Abe from his position as prime minister due to health issues, speculation rose of the possibility that a snap election would be held before the end of the full term, but this did not happen.^[8] Before the resignation announcement of Yoshihide Suga in 2021, the government did consider a plan to hold a general election on 17 October, several days before the expiration of the four-year term for House of Representatives members, government sources said on 30 August.^[9]

Background[]

Following the 2017 general election, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) continued to find itself in a dominant position as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe led the party to a third consecutive victory, the first for a single Prime Minister since 1953.^[10] While the LDP's strong showing seemed to suggest momentum for Abe's long-held goal of revising the anti-war Article 9 of the Constitution, the prospect for revision was thwarted due to procedural obstacles in the Diet from opposition parties and the ruling coalition losing its two-thirds majority in the House of Councillors in the 2019 election.^[11]

Resignation of Shinzo Abe and election of Yoshihide Suga[]

Abe's approval ratings suffered in 2018 as several favoritism scandals dominated media coverage, however he was still re-elected as President of the LDP in September 2018 and became the longest-serving Prime Minister in Japanese history on 19 November 2019 and the longest-serving consecutive Prime Minister on 24 August 2020.^[12] However, Abe shocked observers when he announced on 28 August 2020 that he would resign the premiership due to a sudden resurgence of his ulcerative colitis. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga was elected the next President of the LDP in September 2020 and succeeded Abe as Prime Minister days later.

Opposition party consolidation[]

Meanwhile, Japan's many opposition parties remained fractured and disunited. The Constitutional Democratic Party, seeking to establish itself as the primary centre-left opposition party against the LDP, merged with majorities of the Democratic Party for the People and the Social Democratic Party as well as several independent lawmakers in late 2020, officially re-organizing as a new party while retaining the same name and Yukio Edano as leader.^[13] Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike's national party Kibō no Tō was dissolved in May 2018 after it merged with the Democratic Party to form the Democratic Party for the People, while Koike herself was re-elected in a landslide in 2020 as an independent. The period since 2017 also saw the creation of Reiwa Shinsengumi, a left-wing populist party formed by former actor Taro Yamamoto, whose central policy position is abolition of the consumption tax.^[14]

Suga's popularity falls and cabinet failure[]

While beginning office relatively popular, Prime Minister Suga's approval ratings gradually worsened due to public dissatisfaction over his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, including Japan's slow vaccine rollout compared to the rest of the developed world, and his management of the delayed 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games. The LDP lost three Diet by-elections in April 2021 and also failed to win an outright majority in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election in July despite winning the most seats. Analysts attributed the losses to Suga's low approval ratings.^[15]

Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and COVID-19 surge[]

When the Olympics were eventually held in July to August 2021, public sentiment rose as Japanese athletes secured a record haul of Olympic medals. (By contrast, the decision to go ahead with the event amidst a pandemic was met with widespread hostility.)^[16] However, this did not translate into an upturn in Suga's personal ratings as the event coincided with a state of emergency while COVID-19 cases in Japan continued to surge from the Delta variant.^[17] By the time the Tokyo Olympics ended, the country experienced more than a million cases. In a Asahi Shimbun poll taken at the end of the Olympics, the Cabinet's approval ratings fell to an all time low of 28%, even though 56% of the public agreed that hosting the Olympics was the right decision^[18] signifying concern over the government's inability to handle the COVID-19 pandemic.^[19] As a result, the government's pandemic response is likely to be an election issue.

Although Suga claimed there is no evidence that the Olympics contributed to a surge in daily cases in Tokyo and other parts of Japan, experts, including the government's chief medical adviser believe the Games undermined official messaging on virus rules and encouraged people to become complacent.^[20]

2021 LDP leadership election and resignation of Yoshihide Suga[]

Following the Olympics, speculation rose that several LDP lawmakers, such as former ministers Sanae Takaichi,^[21] Seiko Noda,^[22] 2020 leadership candidate Fumio Kishida^[23] and party policy chief Hakubun Shimomura^[24] were preparing to run for the LDP leadership against Suga when his term as party president ends in September, in the lead up to the election.^[25]

The defeat of candidate Hachiro Okonogi who is Suga's associate in the Yokohama mayoral election on 22 August added pressure on the prime minister and increased speculation on his political future.^[26]

On 3 September, Suga announced that he would not run for re-election for the LDP leadership citing low approval ratings, paving the way for a new LDP leader and Prime Minister to take the party into the general election.^[27]

Opposition forms common policy platform[]

On 8 September, the Constitutional Democratic Party, Social Democratic Party, Japanese Communist Party and Reiwa Shinsengumi formed a joint policy platform and an anti-LDP civil coalition for the upcoming election. The platform covered six areas: constitutionalism, measures to tackle the coronavirus pandemic, reducing economic disparities, transitioning to a decarbonized society, gender equality and government transparency.^[28]

Policies included:

• Opposition to constitutional revision proposed by the LDP that would expand government powers.
• Cuts in consumption tax rate and increasing tax burden on the wealthy.
• Shutting down nuclear power plants and opposition for a planned integrated resort and casino development proposals.
• New inquiries into a series of political scandals involving the LDP, including scandals of former Prime Ministers Shinzo Abe and Yoshihide Suga.^[29]

Current composition[]

Composition of the House of Representatives of Japan (as of 11 August 2021 after 204th/before 205th National Diet)^[30]

In-House Groups [innai] kaiha		Parties	Representatives
	Liberal Democratic Party Jiyūminshutō / Mushozoku no Kai Liberal Democratic Party/Association of Independents	LDP, Independents	276
	The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and the Independent Rikken Minshutō・Mushozoku Constitutional Democratic Party/Independents	CDP, SDP, independents	113
	Komeito Kōmeitō	Kōmeitō	29
	Japanese Communist Party Nihon Kyōsantō	JCP	12
	Nippon Ishin (Japan Innovation Party) Nippon Ishin no Kai・Mushozoku no Kai Nippon Ishin no Kai/Association of Independents	Ishin, Independent	11
	Democratic Party For the People Kokumin Minshutō・Mushozoku Kurabu Democratic Party for the People/Independents Club	DPFP, Independents	11
	Independents Members not affiliated with a parliamentary group/non-inscrits	LDP (Speaker), CDP (Vice-Speaker), N-Koku, independents	10
	Vacant: , Kanagawa 3, (no more by-elections before the 2021 general House of Representatives election)[31]		3
Total			465
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Opinion polls[]

Results[]

See also[]

• Article 9 of the Japanese Constitutional Referendum

Notes[]

References[]