2023 Nigerian presidential election

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2023 Nigerian presidential election
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Party APC PDP
President before election

Muhammadu Buhari
APC

Elected President

TBD
TBD

The 2023 Nigerian presidential election will be held on 25 February 2023 to elect the President and Vice President.[1] Incumbent APC President Muhammadu Buhari is term-limited and cannot seek re-election to a third term. The primaries are scheduled for between 4 April and 3 June 2022. The winners of the election will be inaugurated on 29 May 2023, the former date of Democracy Day.

Electoral system[]

The President of Nigeria is elected using a modified two-round system. To be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive a majority of the vote and over 25% of the vote in at least 24 of the 36 states. If no candidate passes this threshold, a second round will be held between the top two candidates.[2]

Primary elections[]

The primaries, along with any potential challenges to primary results, will take place in late 2022 or early 2023. An informal zoning gentlemen's agreement sets the South (the South East, South South, and South West geopolitical zones) to have the next President as Buhari, a Northerner, was elected twice. Another informal convention calls for nominees to have vice presidential running mates from a different region and religion as themselves. No major party has yet closed their primaries to non-Southern candidates or designated that their tickets cannot have running mates of the same religion, as both the APC and PDP have had heated internal debates over zoning and same religion tickets.[3][4]

All Progressives Congress[]

With Muhammadu Buhari having been elected to the presidency twice, he is ineligible for reelection. In July 2021, national APC Caretaker Chairman and Yobe State Governor Mai Mala Buni backed the consensus method of nominating a presidential candidate instead of the more common direct or indirect primary methods.[5] During Buni's term as Caretaker Chairman, he also campaigned heavily for prominent PDP members to defect to the APC, weakening the opposition's caucus in the National Assembly and gaining three governors—Ebonyi State's Dave Umahi, Cross River State's Benedict Ayade, and Zamfara State's Bello Muhammad Matawalle—in 2020 and 2021. However, the APC's electoral performance and party unity were more mixed as it came a distant third in the 2021 Anambra State gubernatorial election[a] and was still beset by infighting.[6]

The APC primary has been framed in the wider context of internal party feuds stemming from to the APC's formation in 2013 and pre-2019 election party crises to the 2020 removal of party leadership and contentious 2021 state party congresses. The ability of the APC national caretaker committee to resolve state party factionizations and properly organize the 26 February national party convention before its term constitutionally ends in June 2023 is seen as vital for both the APC's presidential chances and its future as a party.[7] After several postponements, the convention date was formally set for 26 February 2022 before being again postponed to 26 March amid various meetings between APC governors. The party was also gripped by disputes over primary methods with the APC leadership in the National Assembly passing an electoral bill that required all parties to use direct primaries before the bill was sent back to the assembly by Buhari after APC governors and Attorney-General Abubakar Malami extensively lobbied against it.[8][9]

In terms of zoning, there is no announced formal zoning agreement for the APC nomination, however, there have been calls from certain politicians and interest groups such as the Southern Governors' Forum to zone the nomination to the South as Buhari, a Northerner, was elected twice.[10][11] Countering its proponents are prospective candidates from the North and the Northern Governors' Forum, which did not oppose a southern presidency but disagreed with formal zoning.[12] On the other hand, there have been few proponents of a same religion ticket, mainly supporters and allies of Bola Tinubu who argue that there are few powerful Northern Christian APC politicians who could be his running mate.[13] Allies of other potential candidates and groups like the Christian Association of Nigeria have come out strongly against the idea of a same religion ticket on grounds of national unity and religious harmony.[4][14]

Declared[]

Announcement pending[]

  • Yahaya Bello: Governor of Kogi State (2016–present)[20]
  • Chris Ngige: Minister of Labour and Employment (2015–present), former Senator for Anambra Central (2011–2015), and former Governor of Anambra State (2003–2006)[21]
  • Bola Tinubu: former Governor of Lagos State (1999–2007) and former Senator for Lagos West (1992–1993)[22]
  • Dave Umahi: Governor of Ebonyi State (2015–present) and former Deputy Governor of Ebonyi State (2011–2015)[23]

Expressed interest[]

Potential[]

Declined[]

Peoples Democratic Party[]

In October 2021, newly elected PDP Chairman Iyorchia Ayu backed the indirect primary method of nominating a presidential candidate instead of the direct or consensus methods.[40] In the year prior to Ayu's election at the October 2021 PDP National Convention, the party had been beset by months of defections from prominent members, most notably of over a dozen National Assembly members and three governors—Ebonyi State's Dave Umahi, Cross River State's Benedict Ayade, and Zamfara State's Bello Muhammad Matawalle; the party also came a distant second in the 2021 Anambra State gubernatorial election and suspended then-national party chair, Uche Secondus.[41] However, the PDP was able to hold its convention without controversy or violence in October, electing nearly all party officials by consensus and inaugurating the full National Working Committee in December.[42]

In terms of zoning, like the APC, the PDP does not have a formal zoning agreement for the nomination, however, there have been calls from certain politicians and interest groups such as the Southern Governors' Forum to zone the nomination to the South as the APC's Buhari, a Northerner, was elected twice.[43][44]

Purchased nomination forms[]

Declared[]

Expressed interest[]

Withdrew[]

Potential[]

Declined[]

Notes[]

  1. ^ On Election Day, Andy Uba and Emeka Okafor were officially listed as the APC gubernatorial and deputy gubernatorial nominees, respectively. However, in December 2021, a Federal High Court nullified the APC gubernatorial primary and declared Uba’s nomination illegal, null, and void.

References[]

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