Russian involvement in regime change

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See also: Soviet involvement in regime change

Russian involvement in regime change describes activities by Russian government to influence formation of other governments through overt or covert interventions since 1991.

1991–present[]

2000s[]

2004: Ukraine[]

Main article: Orange Revolution

The Russian government publicly attempted to influence the 2004 Ukrainian presidential election.[1] Russian President Vladimir Putin gave public support for candidate Viktor Yanukovych and made public visits to Ukraine on his behalf. According to Kempe and Solonenko, "The overall interest of the Russian elite was to keep Ukraine as a reliable neighbor and partner." This was accomplished by channeling Russian funding and expertise directly into the campaign of Yanukovych or the government of Ukraine, in an effort described as "nakedly partisan".[1]

2010s[]

2014: Ukraine[]

The location of Ukraine

In 2014 Ukraine had a revolution and overthrew Viktor Yanukovych. On 6 March 2014, the Crimean Parliament voted to "enter into the Russian Federation with the rights of a subject of the Russian Federation" and later held a referendum asking the people of these regions whether they wanted to join Russia as a federal subject, or if they wanted to restore the 1992 Crimean constitution and Crimea's status as a part of Ukraine.[2] Though passed with an overwhelming majority, the results are contested by some [3][4][5] and approved by others.[6] Crimea and Sevastopol formally declared independence as the Republic of Crimea and requested that they be admitted as constituents of the Russian Federation.[7] On 18 March 2014, Russia and Crimea signed a treaty of accession of the Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol in the Russian Federation, though the United Nations General Assembly voted in favor of a non-binding statement to oppose Russia's annexation of the peninsula.[8]

Pro-Russian hackers launched a series of cyber attacks over several days to disrupt the May 2014 Ukrainian presidential election, releasing hacked emails, attempting to alter vote tallies, and delaying the final result with distributed denial-of-service attacks.[9][10] Malware that would have displayed a graphic declaring far-right candidate Dmytro Yarosh the electoral winner was removed from Ukraine's Central Election Commission less than an hour before polls closed. Despite this, Channel One Russia "reported that Mr. Yarosh had won and broadcast the fake graphic, citing the election commission's website, even though it had never appeared there."[9][11] According to Peter Ordeshook: "These faked results were geared for a specific audience in order to feed the Russian narrative that has claimed from the start that ultra-nationalists and Nazis were behind the revolution in Ukraine."[9]

All these events set up the stage for the Donbass War.

2016: Montenegro[]

Main article: Montenegrin coup plot

On the eve of 16 October 2016, the day of the parliamentary election in Montenegro, a group of 20 Serbian and Montenegrin citizens, including the former head of Serbian Gendarmery Bratislav Dikić, were arrested;[12][13] some of them, along with other persons, including two Russian citizens, were later formally charged by the authorities of Montenegro with an attempted coup d'état. In early November 2016, Montenegro's special prosecutor for organised crime and corruption, Milivoje Katnić, alleged that "a powerful organization" that comprised about 500 people from Russia, Serbia and Montenegro was behind the coup plot.[14] In February 2017, Montenegrin officials accused the Russian 'state structures' of being behind the attempted coup, which allegedly envisaged an attack on the country's parliament and assassination of prime minister Milo Đukanović.[15][16]

The details about the coup plot were first made public at the end of October 2016 by Serbia's prime minister Aleksandar Vučić, whose public statement on the matter stressed the role of Serbia's law enforcers, especially the Serbian Security Intelligence Agency, in thwarting it.[17][18] The statement was immediately followed by an unscheduled visit to Belgrade by Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of Russia's Security Council.[17]

According to the prime minister Duško Marković′s statements made in February 2017, the government received definitive information about the coup being prepared on 12 October 2016, when a person involved in the plot gave away the fallback scenario of his Russian minders; this information was also corroborated by the security services of NATO member countries, who helped the Montenegrin government to investigate the plot.[19] One of the charged, Predrag Bogićević from Kragujevac, a veteran and leader of the Ravna Gora Movement, said that Saša Sinđelić informed him on a possible attack on Serbs who participated in the October 16th protest. Bogićević, in Serbian detention, said through his lawyer that there was no talks whatsoever on a coup and no mentions of Đukanović.[20]

The Moscow–based Russian Institute for Strategic Studies (RISS), which has close ties to Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), was mentioned by mass media[who?] as one of the organisations involved in devising the coup plot; in early November 2017, Russian president Vladimir Putin sacked the RISS director, Leonid P. Reshetnikov, a ranking veteran officer of the SVR.[21][22]

2018: Libya[]

See also: Second Libyan Civil War

In October 2018, the British tabloid The Sun cited British intelligence officials that two Russian military bases had been set up in Benghazi and Tobruk, in eastern Libya, in support of Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar who leads the Libyan National Army (LNA) in that country's civil war. It was said the bases were set up under the cover of the Wagner Group and that 'dozens' of GRU agents and special forces members were acting as trainers and liaisons in the area. Russian Kalibr missiles and S-300 SAM systems were also thought to be set up in Libya.[23][24] A Wagner headquarters was set up at a hospital in the town of Esbia, 50 kilometers south of Tripoli, where the PMCs were stated to have detained and shot the family of a man who had stumbled upon the contractors by mistake. Three people were killed, while the man and another family member managed to survive the execution.[25]

2020s[]

2020: Mali[]

Main article: 2020 Malian coup d'état

President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta faced wave of protests in Mali since 5 June 2020 calling for his resignation from office caused by corruption and economic hardship. In 18 August 2020, the rebelling elements of Malian Armed Forces staged a coup against Keïta, arresting dozens of high ranking government officials and declaring Assimi Goïta as interim head of state. There are several reports suggesting that Russia was behind the coup in Mali as two coup plotters Colonel Malick Diaw and Sadio Camara were said to be trained in Russia before staging a coup.[26][27]

2022: Ukraine[]

Main article: 2021–2022 Russo-Ukrainian crisis

On January 2022, British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss gave a statement that Russian government are planning to install a pro-Russian government in Ukraine. The Ukrainian former MP Yevhen Murayev was suspected to be a strong candidate that are going to be installed by Russia. This speculation raised as tension between Russia and Ukraine has been high in January 2022.[28]

2022: Burkina Faso[]

Main article: 2022 Burkinabé coup d'état

On 23 January 2022, President Roch Marc Christian Kaboré was overthrown by a coup. There are several rumours about Russian involvement in aiding Burkina Faso in order to boost its hegemony in Sahel region. On 11 January 2022, two weeks prior to the successful coup, the government reportedly thwarted a coup attempt in the country. At the time there were massive amount of pro-Russian propaganda spreading around the internet in Burkina Faso.[29] Prior to the coup, Lieutenant-Colonel Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba has called in the past for the Burkinabé government to recruit mercenaries from the Russian Wagner Group against Islamist rebels, which Kaboré opposed. The opposition from Kaboré has raised speculation on Russian active involvement in the region.[30][31][32] The speculation about Russian involvement also raised after some group of pro-coup protesters waving Russian flag.[33][34]

See also[]

References[]

  1. ^ a b Shulman, Stephen; Bloom, Stephen (2012). "The legitimacy of foreign intervention in elections: the Ukrainian response". Review of International Studies. 38 (2): 445–471. doi:10.1017/S0260210512000022. Retrieved 12 January 2017.
  2. ^ "Ukraine crisis: Crimea parliament asks to join Russia". BBC News. Retrieved 27 June 2015.
  3. ^ "OSCE". Retrieved 27 June 2015.
  4. ^ "Report on the human rights situation in Ukraine". Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights. 15 April 2014.
  5. ^ Jacobs, Harrison (11 April 2014). "The UN's Scathing Crimea Report Suggests Russia May Have Rigged Secession Vote". Business Insider. Archived from the original on 2 May 2014.
  6. ^ "Hungarian Ambiance: Jobbik MEP Béla Kovács: The Crimean referendum is perfectly legitimate". Retrieved 27 June 2015.
  7. ^ 16 March 2014, David Herszenhornmarch, The New York Times, "Crimea Votes to Secede From Ukraine as Russian Troops Keep Watch."
  8. ^ "Backing Ukraine’s territorial integrity, UN Assembly declares Crimea referendum invalid". UN News Centre. 27 March 2014. Retrieved 28 March 2014.
  9. ^ a b c Clayton, Mark (17 June 2014). "Ukraine election narrowly avoided 'wanton destruction' from hackers". The Christian Science Monitor. Retrieved 16 August 2017.
  10. ^ Watkins, Ali (14 August 2017). "Obama team was warned in 2014 about Russian interference". Politico. Retrieved 16 August 2017.
  11. ^ Kramer, Andrew E.; Higgins, Andrew (16 August 2017). "In Ukraine, a Malware Expert Who Could Blow the Whistle on Russian Hacking". The New York Times. Retrieved 16 August 2017.
  12. ^ "Slučaj "državni udar" i Đukanovićev "stari recept"". B92.net.
  13. ^ Podgorica, Associated Press in (November 6, 2016). "Montenegrin prosecutor says Russian nationalists behind alleged coup plot". the Guardian.
  14. ^ Montenegro PM Accuses Opposition Over 'Plot to Kill Him' Balkan Insight, 10 November 2016.
  15. ^ Farmer, Ben (19 February 2017). "Russia plotted to overthrow Montenegro's government by assassinating Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic last year, according to senior Whitehall sources". The Telegraph. Retrieved 21 February 2017.
  16. ^ "Kremlin rejects claims Russia had role in Montenegro coup plot". The Guardian. 20 February 2017. Retrieved 21 February 2017.
  17. ^ a b Совбезными усилиями: Осложнение российско-сербских отношений потребовало вмешательства Николая Патрушева КоммерсантЪ, 28 October 2016.
  18. ^ "Crnu Goru trese suluda priča o puču, ruskim špijunima, četnicima, Putinu i Vučiću. Naš reporter analizira sve". 27 November 2016. Retrieved 21 February 2018.
  19. ^ Q&A: Duško Marković, the Prime Minister Stuck Between Putin and Trump in the Balkans Time, 16 February 2017.
  20. ^ "Predrag Bogićević o puču u Crnoj Gori: Išao da štiti Srbe, ne da ruši režim". www.novosti.rs. Retrieved 21 February 2018.
  21. ^ Кремлевский спрут. Часть 2. Как ГРУ пыталось организовать переворот в Черногории theins.ru, 24 March 2017.
  22. ^ Организаторы переворота в Черногории участвовали в аннексии Крыма – СМИ Корреспондент.net, 21 November 2016.
  23. ^ "Putin Plants Troops, Weapons in Libya to Boost Strategic Hold". Al Bawaba.
  24. ^ The Sun: Russia sends troops and missiles to east Libya and sets up two military bases The Libya Observer
  25. ^ "Russian mercenaries in Libya: 'They sprayed us with bullets'". Middle East Eye.
  26. ^ Muvunyi, Fred (2020-08-26). "Was Russia behind the coup in Mali?". Deutsche Welle. Retrieved 2020-11-26.
  27. ^ Jr, Philip Obaji (August 21, 2020). "Russia Trained the Militants Who Just Seized Power in Mali" – via www.thedailybeast.com.
  28. ^ "Kremlin plan to install pro-Russian leadership in Ukraine exposed". GOV.UK. 22 January 2022. Retrieved 28 January 2022.
  29. ^ "Small bands of mercenaries extend Russia's reach in Africa". The Economist. 15 January 2022. Archived from the original on 16 January 2022. Retrieved 25 January 2022.
  30. ^ Ogbohou, Didier (24 January 2022). "Biographie: Qui est réellement Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba". Africanolimit (in French). Retrieved 24 January 2022.
  31. ^ "Coup d'Etat au Burkina : qui est Paul Henri Damiba" (in French). 24 January 2022. Retrieved 24 January 2022.
  32. ^ Jr, Philip Obaji (2022-01-25). "African President Was Ousted Just Weeks After Refusing to Pay Russian Paramilitaries". The Daily Beast. Retrieved 2022-01-27.
  33. ^ Ndiaga, Anne Mimault And Thiam (2022-01-25). "Burkina Faso crowd celebrates West Africa's latest coup". Reuters. Retrieved 2022-01-25.
  34. ^ "Pro-coup supporters rally in Burkina Faso as UN condemns takeover". www.aljazeera.com. Retrieved 2022-01-26.
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