Saul Eslake

Saul Eslake
Occupation	Economist, speaker and commentator, company director and Vice Chancellor's Fellow of the University of Tasmania
Organization	Corinna Economic Advisory
Notable work	Coronavirus Impact Chart Pack
Awards	University of Tasmania Foundation Graduate Award
Website	www.saul-eslake.com

Saul Eslake is one of Australia's best-known economists. He has been following, analyzing and offering commentary and advice on the Australian and other economies for more than 40 years. Eslake is often referred to as Australia's best number cruncher by the media.^[1] His website was selected for preservation by the National Library of Australia's Trove since 2016.^[2] "He has a knack for explaining economics in terms mere mortals can understand, which is why he's always in such high demand as a speaker and commentator."^[1]

Education[]

Eslake is a Vice Chancellor's Fellow of the University of Tasmania since April 2016.^[3] He was awarded the University of Tasmania's Foundation Graduate Award in recognition of "exceptional qualities, leadership and professional achievement" in 2002.^[4] Eslake also holds a Doctor of Laws (Honoris Causa) degree from the University of Tasmania.

Eslake has a first class honours degree in Economics from the University of Tasmania; and a Post Graduate Diploma in Applied Finance and Investment from the Securities Institute of Australia (now known as FinSIA). He has completed the Senior Executive Program at the Columbia University Graduate School of Business; and (with Merit) the Company Directors’ Course of the Australian Institute of Company Directors.^{[5][6][7][8][9]}

Economist[]

Eslake's economic analysis and economic reports have covered broad macro-economic themes including economic and employment growth, inflation, international trade, commodity prices, bond and currency markets, labour markets, productivity, climate change, household and corporate debt, public finance, fiscal and monetary policy, inter-government financial relations, taxation, climate change, and regulatory issues. He has also undertaken and published research on specific industries or themes including housing, tourism, agriculture, energy, infrastructure investment, metals and minerals, poverty alleviation, income distribution and inequality, taxation reform, shipping and transport, the future of work, and regional development.^[10]

He has been the Australian representative on the International Conference of Commercial Bank Economists (ICCBE) since 2003, and chaired its Steering Committee between 2018 and 2021.^[10]

Corinna Economic Advisory[]

Formerly chief economist of ANZ Bank and of Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Australia, Eslake is now the principal of Corinna Economic Advisory based in Hobart.^{[9][11][12][13][14][15]} His clients and subscribers include Australian and overseas institutional and private equity investors; large and small corporates; government agencies; industry and professional organizations; ‘think tanks’; social and environmental organizations; housing associations; and (occasionally) even political parties.

Eslake is a member of the Australian Parliamentary Budget Office's panel of expert advisors, and a member of Australian Taxation Office’s ‘Tax Gap’ expert advisory panel; and a non-executive director of the Macquarie Point Development Corporation, which is managing the re-development of a 14-ha parcel of land adjoining Hobart's iconic waterfront.^[10]

In 2021 Corinna Economic Advisory joined with a similar London-based economics consultancy, Llewellyn Consulting, to form Independent Economics, to offer similar services to clients around the world.^[10]

Government (early career)[]

Eslake began his career as an economist in Fiscal and Monetary Policy sections of the Australian Treasury, in Canberra. This provided him with a very solid grounding in how macro-economic policies are formulated and implemented.^[10]

Eslake then worked for the Advisory Council for Inter-Government Relations (specializing in federal-state financial relations and in housing policy) and for the Opposition (Minority) Leader in the State Parliament of Victoria.^[10]

Financial Markets (Chief Economist)[]

Eslake then worked as Chief Economist in the financial markets for 25 years, including:^[10]

• Chief Economist at McIntosh Securities (when it was one of Australia's leading stockbroking firms) in the second half of the 1980s^[10]
• Chief Economist (International) for the investment management division of National Mutual Life Association (then Australia's second largest life insurance company) in the first half of the 1990s^[10]
• Chief Economist at the Australia & New Zealand Banking Group (one of Australia's four large commercial banks) between 1995 and 2009^[10]
• Chief Economist (Australia and New Zealand) for Bank of America Merrill Lynch (one of the world's largest investment banks) between 2011 and 2015.^[10]

Government Advisory[]

Eslake is currently a member of:

• The Australian Taxation Office's 'Tax Gap' team
• The Australian Parliamentary Budget Office's advisory panel

He has previously been a member of:^[10]

• The Foreign Affairs and Trade Policy Advisory Councils^[10]
• The Tourism Forecasting Committee^[10]
• The Long-Term Tourism Strategy Steering Committee^[10]
• The National Housing Supply Council.^[10]

Company Director[]

Eslake has also previously been Chair of the Tasmanian Arts Advisory Board, which advised on the distribution of grants to arts companies and individual artists. He’s also been a non-executive director of the Gas and Fuel Corporation of Victoria; the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute; Hydro Tasmania; and Housing Choices Australia.^[10]

Keynote Speaker[]

Eslake is a key note speaker at public and private conferences.^[10]

"He has a knack for explaining economics in terms mere mortals can understand, which is why he's always in such high demand as a speaker and commentator."^[1]

He participates in panel discussions; presents to boards, investment and asset allocation committees; undertakes customized analyses and reports for corporate, investor, not-for-profit and government clients; has given testimony to Parliamentary Committees; and appears frequently on radio and TV and in the print media in Australia and other countries.^[10]

Through his monthly webinars, Eslake shares his view on significant public interest topics such as Assessments of Australian Federal Budget,^[16][17] Australian New Protectionism^[18] as well as Quantitative Easing,^[19] Modern Monetary Policy,^[20] Fiscal Policy and Public Debt.^[21]

Coronavirus Impact Chart Pack[]

Since late April 2020, Eslake produces a weekly chart pack on the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and government responses on the Australian economy, world economy, and on major individual economies such as the US, China, Japan, other Asian economies, Europe and New Zealand.^[22][23]

Known as Australia's best number cruncher,^[1] Eslake's weekly Coronavirus Impact Chart Pack has been referred to by the Parliament of Australia,^[24] by the media including Alan Kohler,^[25][26] Adam Creighton^[26] and Ross Gittins^[27][28][26] as well as in Eslake's public and private presentations.

Summary of the weekly chart pack is made available to public and updated every week on Eslake's official website and social media channels.

Commissioned Reports[]

Eslake has written reports commissioned by private and public organisations as well as government institutions on topics such as  sovereign risk, housing affordability and home ownership, taxation reform, shipping costs, international student education, the Tasmanian economy, productivity, the labour market, and various aspects of macro-economic policy.

Notable reports include:

• Saul Eslake, Australian Labor Party (Tasmanian Branch), 2020, Choices have consequences: Replacing TT Line's Spirits of Tasmania^[29][30]
• Saul Eslake, Australian Conservation Foundation, 2018, Sovereign Risk^[31][32]
• Saul Eslake, Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia, 2017, No place like home: The impact of declining home ownership on retirement^[33]
• Saul Eslake, Institute of Chartered Accountants Australia, 2010, Fit for the Future: Challenges for the Next Generation of Australians^[34]
• Saul Eslake, Tasmanian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2020, Tasmania Report^{[35][36][37][38][39][40]}

Collaborative report:

• Michael O’Neil, Steve Whetton, Anthony Kosturjak, Jim Hancock, Tania Dey, Paul Delfabbro, Kerry Sproston, Glyn Wittwer, Saul Eslake, South Australian Centre for Economic Studies, 2021, Fifth Social and Economic Impact Study of Gambling in Tasmania 2021^[41]

Submissions to Parliamentary Committees[]

Eslake has also made submissions to or given evidence before Parliamentary committees, on topics such as central bank independence, housing affordability and housing policy, infrastructure spending, fiscal policy, Australia's response to Covid-19, the conduct of monetary policy and the measurement of unemployment.

Notable submissions include:

• Submission to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Tax and Revenue’s inquiry into Housing Affordability and Supply, 2021, Housing affordability and home ownership^[42]
• Submission to the Select Committee on Job Security, 2021, The ‘effective’ unemployment rate^[43]
• Opening Statement to the Senate Select Committee on Covid-19, 2020^[44] 
• Submission to the Senate Select Committee on Economics Inquiry into Affordable Housing, 2014, Australian Housing Policy: 50 Years of Failure^[45]
• Submission to the Productivity Commission  on its draft report, 2017, Horizontal Fiscal Equalization^[46]

Significant Publications[]

Over the years Eslake has contributed significant writings to various Australian and international print and online media. Recent publications include:

• 'This is a recession - we are just not calling it one', Australian Financial Review, 8th September 2021^[47][48][49]
• ‘This could be the recession we didn’t have to have’, Australian Financial Review, 16^th August 2021^[50][51][52]
• ‘New economic model needed for Victoria to bounce back’, The Melbourne Age, 4^th June 2021^[53]
• ‘Western Australia is having its iron ore cake and eating it too’, Australian Financial Review, 24^th March 2021^[54]
• ‘From coal to criticism, this isn’t the first time the Coalition has tried to heavy the ANZ Bank’,The Conversation, 8^th November 2020^[55]
• ‘Is time running out for the Chinese economy’, Inside Story, 17^th August 2020^[56]
• ‘Global poverty at the cross roads’, Inside Story, 21^st July 2020^[57]
• ‘A business perspective’, in Andrew Stewart, Jim Stanford and Tess Hardy (eds), The Wages Crisis in Australia, University of Adelaide Press, 2018, pp. 217-228.^[58]
• ‘The economic impact of drought in rural Australia’, Company Director magazine, 27^th September 2018^[59]
• ‘The Quest for Security’, Address to the Royal Society of Tasmania at Government House, Hobart, 14^th November 2017, published by Civil Liberties Australia, December 2017^[60] and in abbreviated form by John Menadue’s blog Pearls and Irritations on 23rd February 2018^[61]
• ‘Inequality: a three decade story in eighteen charts’, Inside Story, 6^th June 2017^[62]
• ‘WA’s economic mismanagement is not a reason to review how the GST is carved up’, published by The Conversation  on 2^nd May 2017^[63]
• ‘Education, Productivity and Economic Performance: Tasmania Then, Now and Tomorrow’, The 28th John West Memorial Lecture, Launceston, 28^th April 2017^[64]
• ‘Why small business tax cuts aren’t likely to boost “jobs and growth” published by The Conversation  on 20^th February 2017^[65] and by Committee for the Economic Development of Australia (CEDA) on 3^rd July 2017^[66]
• ‘Productivity – The Lost Decade’, paper presented to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s annual policy conference in 2011^[67]
• ‘The best way to push bad policy is to wrap it up in a ‘security’ blanket’, originally published in The Age and The dney Morning Herald, 9^th November 2011^[68] and featured in The Best Australian Business Writing 2012 - Google Books^[69][70]
• ‘A carbon position built on mistrust’, The Sydney Morning Herald, 6^th July 2011^[71]
• ‘The difference between a recession and a depression’, published in Economic Papers Volume 28, No 2 (2009)^[72] and featured in an article in The Economist, 3^rd January 2009^[73][74]
• ‘Three seemingly unrelated propositions concerning Australia’s identity and economic performance’, Papers and Proceedings of the Royal Society of Tasmania, Volume 139, 6^th September 2005, pp 53-60^[75][76]

References[]

External links[]

• Official website
• LinkedIn
• Twitter @SaulEslake
• YouTube