1999 Portuguese legislative election

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1999 Portuguese legislative election
← 1995 10 October 1999 2002 →
230 seats to the Portuguese Assembly
116 seats needed for a majority
Registered8,864,604 Decrease0.5%
Turnout5,415,102 (61.1%)
Decrease5.2 pp
  First party Second party Third party
  António Guterres crop.jpg Jose Manuel Barroso, EU-kommissionens ordforande, under ett mote i Folketinget 2006-05-19 (1).jpg
CDU
Leader António Guterres José Manuel Barroso Carlos Carvalhas
Party PS PSD PCP
Alliance CDU
Leader since 23 February 1992 27 May 1999 5 December 1992
Leader's seat Castelo Branco[2] Lisbon[3] Lisbon[1]
Last election 112 seats, 43.8% 88 seats, 34.1% 15 seats, 8.6%
Seats won 115 81 17
Seat change Increase 3 Decrease 7 Increase 2
Popular vote 2,385,922 1,750,158 487,058
Percentage 44.1% 32.3% 9.0%
Swing Increase 0.3 pp Decrease 1.8 pp Increase 0.4 pp
  Fourth party Fifth party
  Paulo Portas 2009 (cropped).jpg Francisco Louçã 2009 (cropped).jpg
Leader Paulo Portas Francisco Louçã
Party CDS–PP BE
Leader since 22 March 1998 24 March 1999
Leader's seat Aveiro[4] Lisbon[5]
Last election 15 seats, 9.0% New party
Seats won 15 2
Seat change Steady 0 N/A
Popular vote 451,643 132,333
Percentage 8.3% 2.4%
Swing Decrease 0.7 pp N/A
1999 Portuguese legislative election - Results.svg
Prime Minister before election

António Guterres
PS

Elected Prime Minister

António Guterres
PS

The Portuguese legislative election of 1999 took place on 10 October. The election renewed all 230 members of the Assembly of the Republic.

The Socialist Party was aiming a second term under the lead of António Guterres, incumbent Prime Minister, as a good economy and Portugal's growing prestige, following the Expo 1998 and the support for the East-Timor cause, were strengthening the PS position.[6] Polls leading up to the election predicted a comfortable PS majority government. Adding to this, the main opposition party, the Social Democratic Party (PSD), was exiting an internal crisis after former leader Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa resigned in March 1999 amid disagreaments with the CDS-People's Party leader, Paulo Portas, regarding a future PSD/CDS alliance for these elections.[7] The party elected, in a snap party congress in May 1999, José Manuel Durão Barroso as new leader.

Despite opinion polls predictions, the election results were labeled as a disappointment for the Socialists as the party failed to win a historical absolute majority by just one MP and barely improved their 1995 score, just 0.3%.[8] The disappointing PS score would create instability in Guterres second government in the years to follow.[9] The Social Democratic Party was still away from the preferences of the majority of the Portuguese people, after the ten years cycle under the lead of Cavaco Silva that had terminated four years before, and lost 7 MPs, compared with 1995, and gathered 32% of the votes. The Democratic Unity Coalition achieved an important climb in the scorecard, against those who predicted its irreversible decline after the end of the Socialist Bloc in the early 1990s. The CDS-People's Party was able to hold on to its 15 MPs after tensions with the PSD earlier that year. For the first time, the Left Bloc, formed after the merger of several minor left-wing parties became represented in the parliament after electing two MPs.

Turnout in this election was very low, only being surpassed in 2009 and 2011 when turnout was just less than 60%. Overall, voter turnout reached only 61% of voters, one of the lowest ever recorded.

Electoral system[]

The Assembly of the Republic has 230 members elected to four-year terms. Governments do not require absolute majority support of the Assembly to hold office, as even if the number of opposers of government is larger than that of the supporters, the number of opposers still needs to be equal or greater than 116 (absolute majority) for both the Government's Programme to be rejected or for a motion of no confidence to be approved.[10]

The number of seats assigned to each district depends on the district magnitude.[11] The use of the d'Hondt method makes for a higher effective threshold than certain other allocation methods such as the Hare quota or Sainte-Laguë method, which are more generous to small parties.[12]

For these elections, and compared with the 1995 elections, the MPs distributed by districts were the following:[13]

District Number of MPs
Lisbon 49 (-1)
Porto 37
Braga 17 (+1)
Setúbal 17
Aveiro 14 (+1)
Leiria 10
Santarém 10
Coimbra 10
Viseu 9
Faro 8
Viana do Castelo 6
Madeira 5
Azores 5
Vila Real 5
Castelo Branco 5
Guarda 4
Bragança 4
Évora 4
Beja 3 (-1)
Portalegre 3
Europe 2
Outside Europe 2

Parties[]

The table below lists the parties represented in the Assembly of the Republic during the 7th legislature (1995-1999) and that also partook in the election:

Name Ideology Political position Leader 1995 result
Votes (%) Seats
PS Socialist Party
Partido Socialista 		Social democracy
Third Way 		Centre-left António Guterres 43.8%
112 / 230
PPD/PSD Social Democratic Party
Partido Social Democrata 		Liberal conservatism
Classical liberalism 		Centre-right José Manuel Durão Barroso 34.1%
88 / 230
CDS-PP CDS – People's Party
Centro Democrático e Social – Partido Popular 		Christian democracy
Conservatism 		Centre-right
to right-wing 		Paulo Portas 9.1%
15 / 230
PCP Portuguese Communist Party
Partido Comunista Português 		Communism
Marxism–Leninism 		Far-left Carlos Carvalhas 8.6%
[a]
13 / 230
PEV Ecologist Party "The Greens"
Partido Ecologista "Os Verdes" 		Eco-socialism
Green politics 		Left-wing Isabel Castro
2 / 230

Campaign period[]

Party slogans[]

Party or alliance Original slogan English translation Refs
PS « Portugal em boas mãos » "Portugal in good hands" [14]
PSD « Vamos cumprir » "We will deliver" [15]
CDS–PP « Alternativa'99 » "Alternative'99" [16]
CDU « Para que não fique tudo na mesma » "So that everything will not stay the same" [17]
BE « É tempo de ser exigente » "It's time to be demanding" [18]

Candidates' debates[]

1999 Portuguese legislative election debates
Date Organisers Moderator(s)     P  Present    A  Absent invitee  N  Non-invitee 
PS
Guterres 		PSD
Barroso 		CDU
Carvalhas 		CDS–PP
Portas 		Refs
16 Sep SIC P P N N [19]
17 Sep SIC N N P P [19]
19 Sep SIC N P N P [19]
20 Sep SIC P N P N [19]
21 Sep SIC P N N P [19]
22 Sep SIC N P P N [19]
23 Sep RTP1 P P P P [20]
Candidate viewed as "most convincing" in each debate
Date Organisers Polling firm/Link
PS PSD CDU CDS–PP Notes
16 Sep SIC SIC 57 25 N/A N/A 18% Neither

Opinion polling[]

See also: Exit poll and Opinion poll

The following table shows the opinion polls of voting intention of the Portuguese voters before the election. Those parties that are listed were represented in parliament (1995-1999). Included is also the result of the Portuguese general elections in 1995 and 1999 for reference.

Note, until 2000, the publication of opinion polls in the last week of the campaign was forbidden.

  Exit poll

Date Released Polling Firm PS PSD CDS–PP CDU BE Others Lead
10 Oct 1999 Leg. Election 44.1
115 		32.3
81 		8.3
15 		9.0
17 		2.4
2 		3.9
0 		11.8
10 Oct 1999 RTP/Universidade Católica 46.0 30.3 7.5 8.5 2.5 5.2 15.7
10 Oct 1999 SIC/Seeds 46.3 31.5 8.0 9.8 2.8 1.6 14.8
10 Oct 1999 TVI/Intercampus 46.3 28.6 8.3 9.5 3.2 4.1 17.7
2 Oct 1999 Euroexpansão 50.0 32.0 8.0 6.0 2.0 2.0 18.0
1 Oct 1999 Seeds 47.0 32.0 7.0 8.0 1.0 5.0 15.0
1 Oct 1999 Metris 48.0 31.0 7.0 7.0 1.0 6.0 17.0
1 Oct 1999 Universidade Católica 47.2 30.0 7.2 7.9 2.8 4.9 17.2
30 Sep 1999 Marktest 46.2 30.7 4.2 10.6 2.8 5.5 15.5
30 Sep 1999 Aximage 49.0 33.0 6.0 7.0 1.0 4.0 16.0
29 Jul 1999 Universidade Católica 52.0 31.6 6.2 6.9 1.9 1.4 20.4
13 Jun 1999 EP Elections 43.1 31.1 8.2 10.3 1.8 5.5 12.0
14 Dec 1997 Local Elections 41.3 35.2 6.3 12.0 N/A 5.2 6.1
1 Oct 1995 Leg. Election 43.8
112 		34.1
88 		9.1
15 		8.6
15 		4.4
0 		Did not
exist 		9.7

National summary of votes and seats[]

Summary of the 10 October 1999 Assembly of the Republic elections results
AR Eleicoes 1999.svg
Parties Votes % ± MPs MPs %/
votes %
1995 1999 ± % ±
Socialist 2,385,922 44.06 Increase0.3 112 115 Increase3 50.00 Increase1.3 1.13
Social Democratic 1,750,158 32.32 Decrease1.8 88 81 Decrease7 35.22 Decrease3.1 1.09
Unitary Democratic Coalition[A] 487,058 8.99 Increase0.4 15 17 Increase2 7.39 Increase0.9 0.82
People's 451,643 8.34 Decrease0.7 15 15 Steady0 6.52 Steady0.0 0.78
Left Bloc 132,333 2.44 N/A N/A 2 N/A 0.87 N/A 0.36
Portuguese Workers' Communist 40,006 0.74 Increase0.0 0 0 Steady0 0.00 Steady0.0 0.0
Earth 19,938 0.37 Increase0.3 0 0 Steady0 0.00 Steady0.0 0.0
People's Monarchist 16,522 0.31 N/A N/A 0 N/A 0.00 N/A 0.0
National Solidarity 11,488 0.21 Steady0.0 0 0 Steady0 0.00 Steady0.0 0.0
Humanist 7,346 0.14 N/A N/A 0 N/A 0.00 N/A 0.0
Workers Party of Socialist Unity 4,104 0.08 Increase0.1 0 0 Steady0 0.00 Steady0.0 0.0
Democratic Party of the Atlantic[B] 438 0.01 Decrease0.0 0 0 Steady0 0.00 Steady0.0 0.0
Total valid 5,306,956 98.00 Decrease0.1 230 230 Steady0 100.00 Steady0.0 —
Blank ballots 56,964 1.05 Increase0.3
Invalid ballots 51,230 0.95 Decrease0.1
Total 5,415,102 100.00
Registered voters/turnout 8,864,604 61.09 Decrease5.2
A Portuguese Communist Party (15 MPs) and "The Greens" (2 MPs) ran in coalition.[21]
B Democratic Party of the Atlantic electoral list only in Azores.
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições
Vote share
PS
 
 44.06%
PSD
 
 32.32%
CDU
 
 8.99%
CDS-PP
 
 8.34%
BE
 
 2.44%
PCTP/MRPP
 
 0.74%
Others
 
 1.12%
Blank/Invalid
 
 2.00%
Parliamentary seats
PS
 
 50.00%
PSD
 
 35.22%
CDU
 
 7.39%
CDS-PP
 
 6.52%
BE
 
 0.87%

Distribution by constituency[]

Results of the 1999 election of the Portuguese Assembly of the Republic
by constituency
Constituency % S % S % S % S % S Total
S
PS PSD CDU CDS–PP BE
Azores 53.3 3 35.8 2 1.7 - 5.6 - 1.1 - 5
Aveiro 40.2 7 38.3 6 3.5 - 13.6 2 1.3 - 15
Beja 46.7 2 14.5 - 28.3 1 3.9 - 1.6 - 3
Braga 44.3 8 36.7 7 5.4 1 8.9 1 1.2 - 17
Bragança 39.7 2 45.1 2 2.6 - 8.7 - 0.8 - 4
Castelo Branco 51.6 3 32.0 2 5.3 - 6.3 - 1.2 - 5
Coimbra 47.2 6 35.2 4 6.1 - 6.0 - 2.0 - 10
Évora 45.7 2 18.7 1 24.6 1 5.1 - 1.5 - 4
Faro 48.4 5 29.5 3 8.3 - 7.3 - 2.3 - 8
Guarda 43.4 2 39.2 2 3.2 - 9.8 - 1.1 - 4
Leiria 36.8 4 42.6 5 5.3 - 9.9 1 1.7 - 10
Lisbon 42.7 23 27.3 14 12.3 6 8.5 4 4.9 2 49
Madeira 35.1 2 46.2 3 2.8 - 10.9 - 1.2 - 5
Portalegre 51.2 2 22.5 1 15.0 - 5.9 - 1.2 - 3
Porto 48.0 19 32.7 13 6.2 2 7.5 3 2.3 - 37
Santarém 45.5 5 30.2 3 10.1 1 8.1 1 2.0 - 10
Setúbal 43.7 8 18.0 3 24.8 5 5.6 1 3.5 - 17
Viana do Castelo 40.2 3 35.8 2 5.0 - 14.0 1 1.2 - 6
Vila Real 40.8 2 45.5 3 2.4 - 6.8 - 0.8 - 5
Viseu 38.1 4 44.3 4 2.2 - 10.5 1 1.2 - 9
Europe 55.4 2 24.7 - 5.3 - 3.2 - 0.6 - 2
Rest of the World 39.8 1 49.5 1 1.7 - 3.5 - 0.4 - 2
Total 44.1 115 32.3 81 9.0 17 8.3 15 2.4 2 230
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições

Maps[]

  • Most voted political force by district. (Madeira and Azores not shown)

  • Most voted political force by municipality.

Notes[]

  1. ^ The Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Ecologist Party "The Greens" (PEV) contested the 1999 election in a coalition called Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU) and won a combined 8.6% of the vote and elected 15 MPs to parliament.

References[]

  1. ^ Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
  2. ^ Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
  3. ^ Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
  4. ^ Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
  5. ^ Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
  6. ^ "World: Europe Portugal goes to the polls", BBC News, 10 October 1999. Retrieved 6 September 2020.
  7. ^ "PSD. O dia em que Marcelo desistiu de ser primeiro-ministro", Jornal i, 26 March 2019. Retrieved 6 September 2020.
  8. ^ "A noite que mudou a vida de Guterres ", Expresso, 16 October 2016. Retrieved 6 September 2020.
  9. ^ "Os orçamentos do PS e Daniel Campelo ", RTP, 8 September 2015. Retrieved 6 September 2020.
  10. ^ "Constitution of the Portuguese Republic" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2016-03-03. Retrieved 2019-12-29.
  11. ^ "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Retrieved 2015-10-21.
  12. ^ Gallaher, Michael (1992). "Comparing Proportional Representation Electoral Systems: Quotas, Thresholds, Paradoxes and Majorities"
  13. ^ "Eleição da Assembleia da República de 10 de Outubro de 1999". CNE - Comissão Nacional de Eleições - Eleição da Assembleia da República de 10 de Outubro de 1999. Retrieved 3 December 2020.
  14. ^ "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 1999 – EVORA – PS". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  15. ^ "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 1999 – PSD – DURÃO BARROSO". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  16. ^ "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 1999 – CDS-PP". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  17. ^ "PCP Legislativas 1999". PCP (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  18. ^ "Programa Legislativas 1999". BE (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  19. ^ a b c d e f "Como Guterres mudou os debates para sempre e as arrobas chegaram ao estrelato". Expresso (in Portuguese). 9 September 2015. Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  20. ^ "Operação Legislativas no ar". Público (in Portuguese). 8 September 1999. Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  21. ^ "Electoral results - Assembly of the Republic". Archived from the original on 2012-07-16. Retrieved 2012-09-02.

External links[]

See also[]

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