2002 Portuguese legislative election

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2002 Portuguese legislative election
← 1999 17 March 2002 2005 →
230 seats to the Portuguese Assembly
116 seats needed for a majority
Registered8,902,713 Increase0.4%
Turnout5,473,655 (61.5%)
Increase0.4 pp
  First party Second party Third party
  Jose Manuel Barroso, EU-kommissionens ordforande, under ett mote i Folketinget 2006-05-19 (1).jpg Ferro Rodrigues.jpg Paulo Portas 2009 (cropped).jpg
Leader José Manuel Barroso Ferro Rodrigues Paulo Portas
Party PSD PS CDS–PP
Leader since 27 May 1999 20 January 2002 22 March 1998
Leader's seat Lisbon[2] Lisbon[3] Aveiro[1]
Last election 81 seats, 32.3% 115 seats, 44.1% 15 seats, 8.3%
Seats won 105 96 14
Seat change Increase 24 Decrease 19 Decrease 1
Popular vote 2,200,765 2,068,584 477,350
Percentage 40.2% 37.8% 8.7%
Swing Increase 7.9 pp Decrease 6.3 pp Increase 0.4 pp
  Fourth party Fifth party
 
CDU
Francisco Louçã 2009 (cropped).jpg
Leader Carlos Carvalhas Francisco Louçã
Party PCP BE
Alliance CDU
Leader since 5 December 1992 24 March 1999
Leader's seat Lisbon[4] Lisbon[5]
Last election 17 seats, 9.0% 2 seats, 2.4%
Seats won 12 3
Seat change Decrease 5 Increase 1
Popular vote 379,870 153,877
Percentage 6.9% 2.7%
Swing Decrease 2.0 pp Increase 0.4 pp
2002 Portuguese legislative election - Results.svg
Prime Minister before election

António Guterres
PS

Elected Prime Minister

José Manuel Barroso
PSD

The Portuguese legislative election of 2002 took place on 17 March. The election renewed all 230 members of the Assembly of the Republic.

These elections were called after the resignation of the then incumbent Prime Minister, António Guterres after the defeat of the Socialist Party in the 2001 local elections. That fact, plus the problematic state of the country's finances were the main arguments of the right-wing parties, which led them to be the favourites to win the election.

With just over 40% of the votes cast, the Social Democrats regained the status as the largest political force in Portugal, although the Socialists won almost 38% of the vote. This was, and still is, the smallest difference between the two major parties in Portugal. This short distance also appears on the electoral map, with each party winning eleven of the 22 districts, while the PS won the most populous, Lisbon and Porto. As a result, the Social Democrats fail to win the absolute majority they had between 1987 and 1995.

As no Party got an absolute majority, the Social Democrats formed a coalition with the right-wing People's Party. The left-wing Democratic Unity Coalition achieved the lowest result ever, finishing in the third place in its traditional strongholds, Évora and Setúbal. The Left Bloc gained one MP. Turnout was slightly higher than it was in 1999 but remained quite low, marking a growing separation between the politics and the Portuguese people, mainly due to the image of the politicians as corrupts and the idea that all the parties are the same.

Voter turnout was slightly higher than in 1999, as 61.5% of the electorate cast a ballot.

Background[]

PSD 2000 leadership election[]

After the 1999 election defeat, Durão Barroso's leadership started to be challenged and criticized.[6] In January 2000, Durão Barroso called a snap party congress to resolve the leadership dispute.[7] Alongside Barroso, Pedro Santana Lopes and Luís Marques Mendes also ran. Durão Barroso was reelected as PSD leader and the results were the following:

Ballot: 27 February 2000
Candidate Votes %
José Manuel Durão Barroso 469 50.3
Pedro Santana Lopes 313 33.6
Luís Marques Mendes 150 16.1
Turnout 932
Source: Results

PS 2002 leadership election[]

Following the resignation of António Guterres as Prime Minister and PS leader,[8] the party started the process to elect a new leader. The popular minister in Guterres cabinet, Eduardo Ferro Rodrigues, was the sole candidate for the leadership and was elected with more the 96% of the votes.[9] The results were the following:

Ballot: 20 January 2002
Candidate Votes %
Eduardo Ferro Rodrigues 96.0
Blank/Invalid ballots 4.0
Turnout
Source: Results

Electoral system[]

The Assembly of the Republic has 230 members elected to four-year terms. Governments do not require absolute majority support of the Assembly to hold office, as even if the number of opposers of government is larger than that of the supporters, the number of opposers still needs to be equal or greater than 116 (absolute majority) for both the Government's Programme to be rejected or for a motion of no confidence to be approved.[10]

The number of seats assigned to each district depends on the district magnitude.[11] The use of the d'Hondt method makes for a higher effective threshold than certain other allocation methods such as the Hare quota or Sainte-Laguë method, which are more generous to small parties.[12]

For these elections, and compared with the 1999 elections, the MPs distributed by districts were the following:[13]

District Number of MPs
Lisbon 48 (-1)
Porto 38 (+1)
Braga 18 (+1)
Setúbal 17
Aveiro 15
Leiria 10
Santarém 10
Coimbra 10
Viseu 9
Faro 8
Viana do Castelo 6
Azores 5
Madeira 5
Vila Real 5
Castelo Branco 5
Guarda 4
Bragança 4
Beja 3
Évora 3 (-1)
Portalegre 3
Europe 2
Outside Europe 2

Parties[]

The table below lists the parties represented in the Assembly of the Republic during the 8th legislature (1999-2002) and that also partook in the election:

Name Ideology Political position Leader 1999 result
Votes (%) Seats
PS Socialist Party
Partido Socialista 		Social democracy Centre-left Ferro Rodrigues 44.1%
115 / 230
PPD/PSD Social Democratic Party
Partido Social Democrata 		Liberal conservatism
Classical liberalism 		Centre-right José Manuel Durão Barroso 32.3%
81 / 230
PCP Portuguese Communist Party
Partido Comunista Português 		Communism
Marxism–Leninism 		Far-left Carlos Carvalhas 9.0%
[a]
15 / 230
PEV Ecologist Party "The Greens"
Partido Ecologista "Os Verdes" 		Eco-socialism
Green politics 		Left-wing Isabel Castro
2 / 230
CDS-PP CDS – People's Party
Centro Democrático e Social – Partido Popular 		Christian democracy
Conservatism 		Centre-right
to right-wing 		Paulo Portas 8.3%
15 / 230
BE Left Bloc
Bloco de Esquerda 		Democratic socialism
Anti-capitalism 		Left-wing Francisco Louçã 2.4%
2 / 230

Campaign period[]

Party slogans[]

Party or alliance Original slogan English translation Refs
PS « Fazer bem » "Doing well" [14]
PSD « Somos todos Portugal. » "We are all Portugal" [15]
CDU « Mudar para melhor » "Change for the better" [16]
CDS–PP « O braço direito de Portugal » "Portugal's right-hand man" [17]
BE « Com Razões Fortes » "With strong reasons" [18]

Candidates' debates[]

2002 Portuguese legislative election debates
Date Organisers Moderator(s)     P  Present    A  Absent invitee  N  Non-invitee 
PS
Rodrigues 		PSD
Barroso 		CDU
Carvalhas 		CDS–PP
Portas 		BE
Louçã 		Refs
26 Feb SIC P P N N N [19]
12 Mar RTP1
P P P P P [20]

Opinion polling[]

See also: Exit poll and Opinion poll

The following table shows the opinion polls of voting intention of the Portuguese voters before the election. Those parties that are listed were represented in parliament (1999-2002). Included is also the result of the Portuguese general elections in 1999 and 2002 for reference.

  Exit poll

Date Released Polling Firm PS PSD CDU CDS–PP BE Others Lead
17 Mar 2002 Leg. Election 37.8
96 		40.2
105 		6.9
12 		8.7
14 		2.7
3 		3.7
0 		2.4
17 Mar 2002 (20:00) RTP1 - Universidade Católica 36.0–41.0 37.0–42.0 5.5–8.0 7.5–10.0 3.0–4.0 — 1.0
17 Mar 2002 (20:00) SIC - Eurosondagem 35.5–39.3 40.1–43.9 6.2–8.4 6.2–8.4 2.0–3.4 — 4.6
17 Mar 2002 (20:00) TVI - INTERCAMPUS 35.5–40.5 37.8–42.8 6.8–9.8 5.3–8.3 1.6–4.2 — 2.3
15 Mar 2002 Marktest 35.2 43.7 8.1 6.0 3.7 3.3 8.5
15 Mar 2002 Lusófona 40.9 43.6 5.7 7.1 2.8 N/A 2.7
15 Mar 2002 Eurosondagem 39.3 41.4 6.9 5.6 3.5 3.3 2.1
15 Mar 2002 Eurequipa 33.9 44.7 7.1 9.1 3.2 2.0 10.8
15 Mar 2002 Universidade Católica 37.5 42.2 6.9 6.8 3.6 3.0 4.7
14 Mar 2002 INTERCAMPUS 39.0 41.0 8.0 5.0 3.0 4.0 2.0
14 Mar 2002 Aximage 40.0 44.0 7.0 6.0 2.0 1.0 4.0
13 Mar 2002 SIC/Visão 36.2 41.0 6.6 5.2 2.0 9.0 4.8
8 Mar 2002 Marktest 36.0 43.0 6.0 7.0 4.0 4.0 7.0
2 Mar 2002 Eurosondagem 35.0 38.0 6.0 5.0 2.0 14.0 3.0
Feb 2002 Marktest 34.7 45.7 6.7 7.3 2.5 3.1 11.0
Jan 2002 Marktest 33.8 41.8 9.6 8.1 2.5 4.2 8.0
16 Dec 2001 Local Elections 37.1 41.0 10.6 4.0 1.2 6.1 3.9
Nov 2001 Marktest 35.4 33.7 10.6 11.6 2.9 5.8 1.7
Oct 2001 Marktest 35.9 33.9 10.5 11.5 2.7 5.5 2.0
10 Oct 1999 Leg. Election 44.1
115 		32.3
81 		9.0
17 		8.3
15 		2.4
2 		3.9
0 		11.9

National summary of votes and seats[]

Summary of the 17 March 2002 Assembly of the Republic elections results
AR Eleicoes 2002.svg
Parties Votes % ± MPs MPs %/
votes %
1999 2002 ± % ±
Social Democratic 2,200,765 40.21 Increase7.9 81 105 Increase24 45.65 Increase10.4 1.14
Socialist 2,068,584 37.79 Decrease6.3 115 96 Decrease19 41.74 Decrease8.3 1.10
People's 477,350 8.72 Increase0.4 15 14 Decrease1 6.09 Decrease0.4 0.70
Democratic Unity Coalition[A] 379,870 6.94 Decrease2.1 17 12 Decrease5 5.22 Decrease2.2 0.75
Left Bloc 149,966 2.74 Increase0.3 2 3 Increase1 1.30 Increase0.4 0.47
Portuguese Workers' Communist 36,193 0.66 Decrease0.0 0 0 Steady0 0.00 Steady0.0 0.0
Earth 15,540 0.28 Decrease0.1 0 0 Steady0 0.00 Steady0.0 0.0
People's Monarchist 12,398 0.23 Decrease0.1 0 0 Steady0 0.00 Steady0.0 0.0
Humanist 11,472 0.21 Increase0.1 0 0 Steady0 0.00 Steady0.0 0.0
National Renovator 4,712 0.09 N/A N/A 0 N/A 0.00 N/A 0.0
Workers Party of Socialist Unity 4,316 0.08 Steady0.0 0 0 Steady0 0.00 Steady0.0 0.0
Left Bloc / People's Democratic Union[B] 3,911 0.07 N/A N/A 0 N/A 0.00 N/A 0.0
National Solidarity 804 0.01 Decrease0.2 0 0 Steady0 0.00 Steady0.0 0.0
Total valid 5,365,881 98.03 Increase0.0 230 230 Steady0 100.00 Steady0.0 —
Blank ballots 55,121 1.01 Decrease0.1
Invalid ballots 52,653 0.96 Increase0.0
Total 5,473,655 100.00
Registered voters/turnout 8,902,713 61.48 Increase0.4
A Portuguese Communist Party (10 MPs) and "The Greens" (2 MPs) ran in coalition.[21]
B Left Bloc / People's Democratic Union joint electoral list only in Madeira.
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições
Vote share
PSD
 
 40.21%
PS
 
 37.79%
CDS-PP
 
 8.72%
CDU
 
 6.94%
BE
 
 2.74%
PCTP/MRPP
 
 0.66%
Others
 
 0.96%
Blank/Invalid
 
 1.97%
Parliamentary seats
PSD
 
 45.65%
PS
 
 41.74%
CDS-PP
 
 6.09%
CDU
 
 5.22%
BE
 
 1.30%

Distribution by constituency[]

Results of the 2002 election of the Portuguese Assembly of the Republic
by constituency
Constituency % S % S % S % S % S Total
S
PSD PS CDS–PP CDU BE
Azores 45.4 3 41.0 2 8.4 - 1.4 - 1.4 - 5
Aveiro 46.4 8 33.5 5 12.9 2 2.6 - 1.8 - 15
Beja 21.2 - 43.5 2 3.7 - 24.2 1 1.9 - 3
Braga 44.4 9 37.4 8 9.3 1 4.4 - 1.7 - 18
Bragança 53.2 3 30.0 1 10.9 - 1.9 - 0.9 - 4
Castelo Branco 38.3 2 46.1 3 7.1 - 3.3 - 1.5 - 5
Coimbra 41.0 5 41.3 5 6.7 - 5.1 - 2.4 - 10
Évora 25.3 1 42.8 1 4.6 - 21.8 1 1.8 - 3
Faro 37.7 4 40.5 4 8.3 - 6.3 - 2.8 - 8
Guarda 48.5 2 34.7 2 9.6 - 2.2 - 1.2 - 4
Leiria 50.8 6 29.5 3 9.8 1 4.1 - 2.2 - 10
Lisbon 35.7 18 38.7 20 8.5 4 8.8 4 4.7 2 48
Madeira 53.5 4 25.8 1 12.1 - 2.5 - 3.1 - 5
Portalegre 30.6 1 45.2 2 6.4 - 12.4 - 1.6 - 3
Porto 40.0 16 41.2 17 8.4 3 4.6 1 2.7 1 38
Santarém 38.1 4 38.4 4 8.4 1 8.6 1 2.9 - 10
Setúbal 24.7 5 39.3 7 6.9 1 20.5 4 4.6 - 17
Viana do Castelo 45.5 3 35.3 3 10.3 - 3.5 - 1.8 - 6
Vila Real 54.1 3 31.9 2 8.1 - 2.0 - 0.9 - 5
Viseu 52.1 5 31.1 3 10.6 1 1.5 - 1.4 - 9
Europe 36.9 1 42.1 1 5.0 - 4.8 - 1.1 - 2
Rest of the World 66.3 2 21.5 - 3.4 - 0.9 - 0.4 - 2
Total 40.2 105 37.8 96 8.7 14 6.9 12 2.7 3 230
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições

Maps[]

Further reading[]

  • Freire, André (November 2004). "Issue Voting in Portugal: The 2002 Legislative Elections". West European Politics. 27 (5): 779–800. doi:10.1080/0140238042000283328.

Notes[]

  1. ^ The Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Ecologist Party "The Greens" (PEV) contested the 1999 election in a coalition called Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU) and won a combined 9% of the vote and elected 17 MPs to parliament.

References[]

  1. ^ Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
  2. ^ Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
  3. ^ Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
  4. ^ Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
  5. ^ Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
  6. ^ "Divisões no PSD", RTP, 17 January 2000. Retrieved 21 November 2021.
  7. ^ "Durão Barroso desafia Santana Lopes", RTP, 19 January 2000. Retrieved 21 November 2021.
  8. ^ "Guterres apresenta demissão depois de derrota nas autárquicas (act)", Jornal de Negócios, 17 December 2001. Retrieved 21 November 2021.
  9. ^ "Ferro Rodrigues eleito novo secretário-geral do PS ", Público, 20 January 2002. Retrieved 21 November 2021.
  10. ^ "Constitution of the Portuguese Republic" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2016-03-03. Retrieved 2019-12-29.
  11. ^ "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Retrieved 2015-10-21.
  12. ^ Gallaher, Michael (1992). "Comparing Proportional Representation Electoral Systems: Quotas, Thresholds, Paradoxes and Majorities"
  13. ^ "Eleição da Assembleia da República de 17 de Março de 2002". CNE - Comissão Nacional de Eleições - Eleição da Assembleia da República de 17 de Março de 2002. Retrieved 2 December 2020.
  14. ^ "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 2002 – PS". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  15. ^ "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 2002 – PSD". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  16. ^ "PCP Legislativas 2002". PCP (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  17. ^ "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 2002 – CDS". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  18. ^ "Manifesto Legislativas 2002". BE (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  19. ^ "Debate Ferro/Durão visto por 1,2 milhões de espectadores". Público (in Portuguese). 27 Feb 2002. Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  20. ^ "DEBATE: LEGISLATIVAS 2005". RTP1 (in Portuguese). 2002. Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  21. ^ "Electoral results - Assembly of the Republic". Archived from the original on 2012-07-16. Retrieved 2012-09-02.

External links[]

See also[]

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