2009 Portuguese legislative election

2009 Portuguese legislative election

← 2005 27 September 2009 2011 →
230 seats to the Portuguese Assembly 116 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered	9,519,921 6.4%
Turnout	5,681,258 (59.7%) 4.6 pp
First party Second party Third party   Leader José Sócrates Manuela Ferreira Leite Paulo Portas Party PS PSD CDS–PP Leader since 29 September 2004 31 May 2008 21 April 2007 Leader's seat Castelo Branco[2] Lisbon[3] Aveiro[1] Last election 121 seats, 45.0% 75 seats, 28.8% 12 seats, 7.2% Seats won 97 81 21 Seat change 24 6 9 Popular vote 2,077,238 1,653,665 592,778 Percentage 36.6% 29.1% 10.4% Swing 8.4 pp 0.3 pp 3.2 pp   Fourth party Fifth party   Leader Francisco Louçã Jerónimo de Sousa Party BE PCP Alliance CDU Leader since 24 March 1999 27 November 2004 Leader's seat Lisbon[4] Lisbon[5] Last election 8 seats, 6.4% 14 seats, 7.5% Seats won 16 15 Seat change 8 1 Popular vote 557,306 446,279 Percentage 9.8% 7.9% Swing 3.4 pp 0.3 pp
Results by district or autonomous region.
Prime Minister before election José Sócrates PS Elected Prime Minister José Sócrates PS

The Portuguese legislative election of 2009 was held on 27 September, to renew all 230 members of the Assembly of the Republic.^[6] The Socialist Party, led by incumbent Prime Minister José Sócrates, won the largest number of seats, but didn't repeat the overall majority they gained in 2005.^[7]

The Socialist Party of Prime Minister José Sócrates came in first despite losing 9% of the vote and 24 seats.

In these elections there were approximately 9.5 million Portuguese at home and abroad called to determine the 230 seats in the Assembleia da República and 18th constitutional government in Portugal after 1976. The Socialists won the election with a clear lead over the conservative Social Democrats, with big gains for the People's Party and for the Left Bloc.

The election took place during the regular end of the previous four-year legislative period. From 2005 to 2009 ruled by the Socialist Party (PS), led by José Sócrates, with an absolute majority. The opinion polls at the beginning of the official election campaign on 12 September 2009, showed a too close to call race between the Socialists and the conservative Social Democrats,^[8] but just days before the election the Socialists increased their lead over the Social Democrats.^[9] A total of 13 parties and two coalitions competed in this election.

Focus of the campaign was the impact of global economic, the financial crisis and the construction of new infrastructure projects, including the high-speed rail link Lisbon-Madrid and Lisbon-Porto-Vigo, and the new Lisbon airport.

Neither of the two major parties won an absolute majority in the Assembly of the Republic, so, the future prime minister had to form a coalition, or at least rely on other parties to govern. In that case, José Sócrates was in a better position than Manuela Ferreira Leite, since the Portuguese left won by 54.23% of the vote and 128 seats, against 39.54% and 102 deputies to the right.

On 12 October, José Sócrates was invited by President Aníbal Cavaco Silva to form government. The new cabinet was announced on 22 October and sworn in on 26 October.

Voter turnout was one of the lowest in Portuguese election history, as 59.7% of the electorate cast a ballot.

Background[]

In the February 2005 early elections, the Socialists, under the leadership of José Sócrates, won 45% of the votes and 121 MPs, the 1st time the Socialists won a majority and the 1st time a single party won a majority since Cavaco Silva's PSD victory in 1991. The PSD suffered a heavy defeat, achieving their worst results since 1983, and faced with this failure, the then PSD leader and outgoing Prime Minister, Pedro Santana Lopes, resigned from the leadership and called an election for party chair.

PSD 2005 leadership election[]

In the party's congress in April 2005, Luís Marques Mendes became party leader winning 56% of the delegates, against the 44% of his rival, Luís Filipe Menezes.^[10] The results were the following:

Ballot: 9 April 2005

Candidate		Votes	%
	Luís Marques Mendes	497	56.6
	Luís Filipe Menezes	381	43.4
Turnout		878
Source: Results

CDS–PP 2005 leadership election[]

CDS–PP leader Paulo Portas, resigned from the leadership following the disappointing result of the party in the 2005 elections saying that "in no civilized country in the world, the difference between Trotskyists and Christian Democrats is one percent", referring to the result of the BE.^[11] A snap leadership congress was called to elect a new leader. Two candidates were in the ballot:^[12] , the preferred candidate of Paulo Portas, and José Ribeiro e Castro, more critical of Portas. Ribeiro e Castro was easily elected^[13] and the results were the following:

Ballot: 24 April 2005

Candidate		Votes	%
	José Ribeiro e Castro	492	56.0
		387	44.0
Turnout		879
Source: Results

During the first months in his government, Sócrates raised taxes to cut the deficit and initiated a policy of strict budgetary rigor. At the same time, he faced a very harsh summer with Wildfires across the country.^[14] That same October, the Socialists suffered a heavy defeat in the 2005 local elections, winning just 108 cities, a drop of 4, against the PSD's 158 mayoral holds. The PS was also unable to retake control of Lisbon and Porto. In January 2006, a new President was elected. Aníbal Cavaco Silva, PM between 1985 and 1995, became the first center-right candidate to win a presidential election, although only just. The PS candidate, former PM and President Mário Soares polled a disappointing third place with just 14% of the votes. In 2007, a referendum for the legalization of abortion was held. After the failure of the 1998 referendum, the Yes side prevailed winning 59% of the votes against the No's 41%, making abortion legal in Portugal.^[15]

While the deficit reduction had been successful, and with the economy growing above 2% of GDP, the government faced heavy opposition for its policies, particularly from teachers unions. In March 2008, more than 100,000 teachers protested in Lisbon against Sócrates and his Education minister, Maria de Lurdes Rodrigues.^[16]

CDS–PP 2007 leadership election[]

On April 2007, former CDS–PP leader Paulo Portas challenged the then party leader, José Ribeiro e Castro, for the leadership and was elected for his former job by a landslide.^[17] The results were the following:

Ballot: 21 April 2007

Candidate		Votes	%
	Paulo Portas	5,642	74.6
	José Ribeiro e Castro	1,883	24.9
Blank/Invalid ballots		38	0.5
Turnout		7,563
Source: Results

PSD 2007 leadership election[]

In the Social Democratic Party, incumbent leader Luís Marques Mendes was being very criticized for his opposition strategy and was left weakened after the PSD disappointing result in the 2007 Lisbon mayoral by-election, where the PSD polled 3rd with less than 16% of the votes.^[18] Marques Mendes called a snap leadership election and was challenged by his rival in the 2005 PSD congress, Luís Filipe Menezes.^[19] Menezes easily defeated Marques Mendes. The results were the following:

Ballot: 28 September 2007

Candidate		Votes	%
	Luís Filipe Menezes	21,101	53.6
	Luís Marques Mendes	16,973	43.1
Blank/Invalid ballots		1,279	3.3
Turnout		39,353	62.42
Source: Official Results

PSD 2008 leadership election[]

The then PSD leader, Luís Filipe Menezes, elected in September 2007, resigned after just 6 months in the job.^[20] In the following leadership elections, held in May 2008, Manuela Ferreira Leite became the first woman to lead a major party in Portugal, winning 38% of the votes, against the 31% of Pedro Passos Coelho and the 30% of Pedro Santana Lopes.^[21] The results were the following:

Ballot: 31 May 2008

Candidate		Votes	%
	Manuela Ferreira Leite	17,278	37.9
	Pedro Passos Coelho	14,160	31.1
	Pedro Santana Lopes	13,495	29.6
		308	0.7
Blank/Invalid ballots		351	0.8
Turnout		45,592	59.13
Source: Official Results

Entering 2009, Portugal was strongly hit by the effects of the financial crisis that was shaking the global economy, and, therefore, the country entered in a recession. As a result, the government adopted stimulus measures that worsened the public finances and increased the deficit and the debt. In the European elections of June 7, 2009, the PSD stunned pundits by winning a European election for the first time since 1989, with 31.7% of the votes. The Socialists suffered a huge defeat, winning just 26% of the votes, a drop of 18%.

Electoral system[]

The Assembly of the Republic has 230 members elected to four-year terms. Governments do not require absolute majority support of the Assembly to hold office, as even if the number of opposers of government is larger than that of the supporters, the number of opposers still needs to be equal or greater than 116 (absolute majority) for both the Government's Programme to be rejected or for a motion of no confidence to be approved.^[22]

The number of seats assigned to each district depends on the district magnitude.^[23] The use of the d'Hondt method makes for a higher effective threshold than certain other allocation methods such as the Hare quota or Sainte-Laguë method, which are more generous to small parties.^[24]

For these elections, and compared with the 2005 elections, the MPs distributed by districts were the following:^[25]

District	Number of MPs
Lisbon	47 (-1)
Porto	39 (+1)
Braga	19 (+1)
Setúbal	17
Aveiro	16 (+1)
Leiria	10
Santarém	10
Coimbra	10
Viseu	9
Faro	8
Madeira	6
Viana do Castelo	6
Azores	5
Vila Real	5
Castelo Branco	4 (-1)
Guarda	4
Beja	3
Bragança	3 (-1)
Évora	3
Portalegre	2
Europe	2
Outside Europe	2

Parties[]

The table below lists the parties represented in the Assembly of the Republic during the 10th legislature (2005-2009) and that also partook in the election:

Name			Ideology	Political position	Leader	2005 result		Seats at dissolution[26]
						Votes (%)	Seats
	PS	Socialist Party Partido Socialista	Social democracy	Centre-left	José Sócrates	45.0%	121 / 230	121 / 230
	PPD/PSD	Social Democratic Party Partido Social Democrata	Liberal conservatism Classical liberalism	Centre-right	Manuela Ferreira Leite	28.8%	75 / 230	75 / 230
	PCP	Portuguese Communist Party Partido Comunista Português	Communism Marxism–Leninism	Far-left	Jerónimo de Sousa	7.5% [a]	12 / 230	11 / 230
	PEV	Ecologist Party "The Greens" Partido Ecologista "Os Verdes"	Eco-socialism Green politics	Left-wing	Heloísa Apolónia		2 / 230	2 / 230
	CDS-PP	CDS – People's Party Centro Democrático e Social – Partido Popular	Christian democracy Conservatism	Centre-right to right-wing	Paulo Portas	7.2%	12 / 230	11 / 230
	BE	Left Bloc Bloco de Esquerda	Democratic socialism Anti-capitalism	Left-wing	Francisco Louçã	6.4%	8 / 230	8 / 230
	Ind.	Independent Independente	Luísa Mesquita (expelled from the Portuguese Communist Party caucus);[27] João Luís Mota (left the CDS – People's Party caucus)[28]					2 / 230

Campaign period[]

Party slogans[]

Party or alliance		Original slogan	English translation	Refs
	PS	« Avançar Portugal »	"Go forward Portugal"	[29]
	PSD	« Compromisso de verdade »	"Real commitment"	[30]
	CDU	« Soluções para uma vida melhor »	"Solutions for a better life"	[31]
	CDS–PP	« Não basta pensar. É preciso votar. »	"Thinking is not enough. You need to vote."	[32]
	BE	« Estamos prontos »	"We are ready"	[33]

Candidates' debates[]

2009 Portuguese legislative election debates
Date	Organisers	Moderator(s)	P  Present    A  Absent invitee  N  Non-invitee
			PS Sócrates	PSD Leite	CDU Jerónimo	CDS–PP Portas	BE Louçã	Refs
2 Sep	TVI		P	N	N	P	N	[34]
3 Sep	SIC		N	N	P	N	P	[34]
5 Sep	RTP1		P	N	P	N	N	[34]
6 Sep	TVI		N	P	N	N	P	[34]
7 Sep	SIC		N	N	P	P	N	[34]
8 Sep	RTP1		P	N	N	N	P	[34]
9 Sep	TVI		N	P	P	N	N	[34]
10 May	RTP1		N	P	N	P	N	[34]
11 Sep	RTP1		N	N	N	P	P	[34]
12 Sep	SIC		P	P	N	N	N	[34]
Candidate viewed as "most convincing" in each debate
Date	Organisers	Polling firm/Link
			PS	PSD	CDU	CDS–PP	BE	Notes
12 Sep	SIC	Aximage	45.6	30.2	N/A	N/A	N/A	24.2% Neither/Tie

Opinion polling[]

National summary of votes and seats[]

Summary of the 27 September 2009 Assembly of the Republic elections results

Parties		Votes	%	±pp swing	MPs					MPs %/ votes %
					2005	2009	±	%	±
	Socialist	2,077,238	36.56	8.4	121	97	24	42.17	10.4	1.15
	Social Democratic	1,653,665	29.11	0.3	71	81	10	35.22	4.3	1.21
	People's	592,778	10.43	3.1	12	21	9	9.13	3.9	0.88
	Left Bloc	557,306	9.81	3.4	8	16	8	6.96	3.5	0.71
	Unitary Democratic Coalition[b]	446,279	7.86	0.3	14	15	1	6.52	0.4	0.83
	Portuguese Workers' Communist	52,761	0.93	0.1	0	0	0	0.00	0.0	0.0
	Hope for Portugal Movement	25,949	0.46	N/A	N/A	0	N/A	0.00	N/A	0.0
	New Democracy	21,876	0.38	0.3	0	0	0	0.00	0.0	0.0
	Merit and Society Movement	16,924	0.30	N/A	N/A	0	N/A	0.00	N/A	0.0
	People's Monarchist[c]	15,262	0.27	N/A	2	0	2	0.00	0.9	0.0
	Earth / Humanist[d]	12,405	0.22	N/A	N/A	0	N/A	0.00	N/A	0.0
	National Renovator	11,503	0.20	0.0	0	0	0	0.00	0.0	0.0
	Portugal Pro-Life	8,461	0.15	N/A	N/A	0	N/A	0.00	N/A	0.0
	Labour	4,974	0.09	N/A	N/A	0	N/A	0.00	N/A	0.0
	Workers Party of Socialist Unity	4,632	0.08	0.0	0	0	0	0.00	0.0	0.0
	Earth[e]	3,265	0.06	N/A	2	0	2	0.00	0.9	0.0
Total valid		5,505,278	96.91	0.2	230	230	0	100.00	0.0	—
Blank ballots		99,086	1.74	0.1
Invalid ballots		76,894	1.35	0.2
Total		5,681,258	100.00
Registered voters/turnout		9,519,921	59.68	4.6
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições

Vote share PS   36.56% PSD   29.11% CDS-PP   10.43% BE   9.81% CDU   7.86% PCTP/MRPP   0.93% Others   2.21% Blank/Invalid   3.09%

Parliamentary seats PS   42.17% PSD   35.22% CDS-PP   9.13% BE   6.96% CDU   6.52%

Distribution by constituency[]

Results of the 2009 election of the Portuguese Assembly of the Republic
by constituency

Constituency	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	Total S
	PS		PSD		CDS–PP		BE		CDU
Azores	39.7	3	35.7	2	10.3	-	7.3	-	2.2	-	5
Aveiro	33.8	6	34.6	7	13.0	2	9.0	1	3.8	-	16
Beja	34.9	2	14.6	-	5.7	-	10.0	-	29.1	1	3
Braga	41.7	9	30.8	6	9.7	2	7.8	1	4.6	1	19
Bragança	33.0	1	40.6	2	12.6	-	6.2	-	2.4	-	3
Castelo Branco	41.0	2	29.8	2	8.4	-	9.1	-	5.1	-	4
Coimbra	38.0	4	30.6	4	8.8	1	10.8	1	5.7	-	10
Évora	35.0	1	19.0	1	6.4	-	11.1	-	22.3	1	3
Faro	31.9	3	26.2	3	10.7	1	15.3	1	7.8	-	8
Guarda	36.0	2	35.6	2	11.2	-	7.6	-	3.3	-	4
Leiria	30.1	4	34.9	4	12.6	1	9.5	1	5.1	-	10
Lisbon	36.4	19	25.1	13	11.0	5	10.8	5	9.9	5	47
Madeira	19.4	1	48.1	4	11.1	1	6.2	-	4.2	-	6
Portalegre	38.3	1	23.8	1	8.0	-	10.8	-	12.9	-	2
Porto	41.8	18	29.2	12	9.3	4	9.2	3	5.7	2	39
Santarém	33.7	4	27.0	3	11.2	1	11.8	1	9.2	1	10
Setúbal	34.0	7	16.4	3	9.1	1	14.0	2	20.1	4	17
Viana do Castelo	36.3	3	31.3	2	13.6	1	8.6	-	4.2	-	6
Vila Real	36.1	2	41.1	3	10.1	-	5.5	-	2.9	-	5
Viseu	34.7	4	37.5	4	13.4	1	6.5	-	2.9	-	9
Europe	43.3	1	23.8	1	4.7	-	4.7	-	4.4	-	2
Rest of the World	22.0	-	54.5	2	3.2	-	2.0	-	1.0	-	2
Total	36.6	97	29.1	81	10.4	21	9.8	16	7.9	15	230
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições

Maps[]

• 

  First, second and third most voted political force by district.

• 

  Most voted political force by district or autonomous region.

• 

  Most voted political force by municipality.

Notes[]

References[]

External links[]

• Preliminary results of the 2009 election
• Portuguese Electoral Commission

See also[]

• Politics of Portugal
• List of political parties in Portugal
• Elections in Portugal