2004 United States Senate election in Oklahoma

2004 United States Senate election in Oklahoma
	County results; Coburn: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80%; Carson: 40–50% 50–60%
U.S. senator before election; Don Nickles; Republican	Elected U.S. Senator ; Tom Coburn; Republican

The 2004 United States Senate election in Oklahoma took place on November 2, 2004. The election was concurrent with elections to the United States House of Representatives and the presidential election. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Don Nickles decided to retire instead of seeking a fifth term. Republican nominee Tom Coburn won the open seat.

Democratic primary[]

Candidates[]

Brad Carson, U.S. Representative
Carroll Fisher, Oklahoma Insurance Commissioner
Jim Rogers, perennial candidate
Monte E. Johnson, attorney
W. B. G. Woodson

Results[]

Democratic primary results^[1]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Brad Carson	280,026	79.37%
	Democratic	Carroll Fisher	28,385	8.05%
	Democratic	Jim Rogers	20,179	5.72%
	Democratic	Monte E. Johnson	17,274	4.90%
	Democratic	W. B. G. Woodson	6,932	1.96%
Total votes			352,796	100.00%

Republican primary[]

Candidates[]

Tom Coburn, former U.S. Representative
Kirk Humphreys, former Mayor of Oklahoma City
Bob Anthony, Oklahoma Corporation Commissioner
Jay Richard Hunt, activist

Campaign[]

Humphreys, the former Mayor of Oklahoma City, ran for the United States Senate with institutional conservative support, namely from Senators Don Nickles and Jim Inhofe, as well as former Congressman J. C. Watts. However, Coburn received support from the Club for Growth and conservative activists within Oklahoma. Humphreys noted, "[Coburn is] kind of a cult hero in the conservative portion of our party, not just in Oklahoma. You can't get right of the guy."^[2] Much of Coburn's celebrity within the Republican Party came from his tenure in Congress, where he battled House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who he argued was moving the party to the center of the political spectrum due to their excessive federal spending.^[3] Coburn's maverick nature culminated itself in 2000 when he backed conservative activist Alan Keyes for President rather than George W. Bush or John McCain.

Ultimately, Coburn triumphed over Humphreys, Anthony, and Hunt in the primary, winning every county in Oklahoma except for tiny Harmon County.

Results[]

Republican primary results^[1]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Tom Coburn	145,974	61.23%
	Republican	Kirk Humphreys	59,877	25.12%
	Republican	Bob Anthony	29,596	12.41%
	Republican	Jay Richard Hunt	2,944	1.23%
Total votes			238,391	100.00%

General election[]

Candidates[]

Sheila Bilyeu (I), perennial candidate^[4]
Brad Carson (D), United States Congressman from Oklahoma's 2nd congressional district
Tom Coburn (R), former United States Congressman from Oklahoma's 2nd congressional district

Campaign[]

Carson and Coburn engaged each other head-on in one of the year's most brutal Senate contests. Coburn and the National Republican Senatorial Committee attacked Carson for being too liberal for Oklahoma and for being a vote in lockstep with John Kerry, Hillary Clinton, and Ted Kennedy. To drive the point home, one television advertisement aired by the Coburn campaign accused Carson of being "dangerously liberal" and not supporting the War on Terrorism.^[5] Coburn was aided in this effort by the fact that the Kerry campaign did not contest the state of Oklahoma and that incumbent President George W. Bush was expected to win Oklahoma comfortably. This was compounded by the fact that Vice-President Dick Cheney campaigned for Coburn and appeared in several television advertisements for him.^[6] Carson countered by emphasizing his Stilwell roots^[7] and his moderation, specifically, bringing attention to the fact that he fought for greater governmental oversight of nursing home care for the elderly.^[8] Carson responded to the attacks against him by countering that his opponent had committed Medicaid fraud years prior, in an event that reportedly left a woman sterilized without her consent.^[9] Ultimately, however, Carson was not able to overcome Oklahoma's conservative nature and Senator Kerry's abysmal performance in Oklahoma, and he was defeated by Coburn by 11.5%. As of 2022, the result remains the closest the Democrats have come to winning a Senate election in Oklahoma since David Boren won a landslide reelection victory in 1990.

Predictions[]

Source	Ranking	As of
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[10]	Lean R	November 1, 2004

Polling[]

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Tom Coburn (R)	Brad Carson (D)	Sheila Bilyeu (I)	Other / Undecided
SurveyUSA	October 28–30, 2004	656 (LV)	± 3.9%	47%	39%	8%	6%

Results[]

2004 United States Senate election in Oklahoma^[11]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Tom Coburn	763,433	52.77%	−13.62%
	Democratic	Brad Carson	596,750	41.24%	+9.97%
	Independent	Sheila Bilyeu	86,663	5.99%
Majority			166,683	11.52%	−23.58%
Turnout			1,446,846
	Republican hold		Swing

Notes[]

^ Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

References[]

^ ^a ^b http://www.ok.gov/elections/The_Archives/Election_Results/2004_Election_Results/Primary_Election_2004.html
^ Stolberg, Sheryl Gay (19 September 2004). "A Senate Race in Oklahoma Lifts the Right". The New York Times.
^ "Tom Coburn–The real maverick in the Senate | Political Realities". Archived from the original on 2011-07-23. Retrieved 2010-03-30.
^ Krehbiel, Randy "Former Oklahoma City TV journalist Abby Broyles files to take on Sen. Jim Inhofe" Tulsa World Apr. 9, 2020 Accessed Oct. 11, 2021.
^ Archived at Ghostarchive and the Wayback Machine: "Tom Coburn 2004 U.S. Senate "Dangerously Liberal"". YouTube.
^ http://www3.nationaljournal.com/members/adspotlight/2004/10/1007oksen1.htm^{[permanent dead link]}
^ Archived at Ghostarchive and the Wayback Machine: "Brad Carson U.S. Senate 2004 "Stilwell"". YouTube.
^ http://newsok.com/carsons-first-stand-should-feds-examine-nursing-homes/article/2738499
^ "Okla. Senate Candidate Is Accused of Fraud (washingtonpost.com)". The Washington Post.
^ "The Final Predictions". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved May 2, 2021.
^ http://clerk.house.gov/member_info/electionInfo/2004election.pdf^{[bare URL PDF]}

[key-11] Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

[Primary_election_results-1] ttp://www.ok.gov/elections/The_Archives/Election_Results/2004_Election_Results/Primary_Election_2004.html

[2] Stolberg, Sheryl Gay (19 September 2004). "A Senate Race in Oklahoma Lifts the Right". The New York Times.

[3] "Tom Coburn–The real maverick in the Senate | Political Realities". Archived from the original on 2011-07-23. Retrieved 2010-03-30.

[4] Krehbiel, Randy "Former Oklahoma City TV journalist Abby Broyles files to take on Sen. Jim Inhofe" Tulsa World Apr. 9, 2020 Accessed Oct. 11, 2021.

[5] Archived at Ghostarchive and the Wayback Machine: "Tom Coburn 2004 U.S. Senate "Dangerously Liberal"". YouTube.

[6] ttp://www3.nationaljournal.com/members/adspotlight/2004/10/1007oksen1.htm^{[permanent dead link]}

[7] Archived at Ghostarchive and the Wayback Machine: "Brad Carson U.S. Senate 2004 "Stilwell"". YouTube.

[8] ttp://newsok.com/carsons-first-stand-should-feds-examine-nursing-homes/article/2738499

[9] "Okla. Senate Candidate Is Accused of Fraud (washingtonpost.com)". The Washington Post.

[10] "The Final Predictions". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved May 2, 2021.

[12] ttp://clerk.house.gov/member_info/electionInfo/2004election.pdf^{[bare URL PDF]}

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2004 United States Senate election in Oklahoma

Contents

Democratic primary[]

Candidates[]

Results[]

Republican primary[]

Candidates[]

Campaign[]

Results[]

General election[]

Candidates[]

Campaign[]

Predictions[]

Polling[]

Results[]

See also[]

Notes[]

References[]