2004 United States presidential election in Michigan

2004 United States presidential election in Michigan

← 2000 November 2, 2004 2008 →
Turnout	64.7% [1]
Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush Party Democratic Republican Home state Massachusetts Texas Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney Electoral vote 17 0 Popular vote 2,479,183 2,313,746 Percentage 51.23% 47.81%
County Results Kerry   40-50%   50-60%   60-70% Bush   40-50%   50-60%   60-70%   70-80%
President before election George W. Bush Republican Elected President George W. Bush Republican

Elections in Michigan
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The 2004 United States presidential election in Michigan took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 17 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Michigan was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 3.4% margin of victory. Although no Republican carried this state in a presidential election since Bush's father George H. W. Bush in 1988, early polling showed the race was a toss-up, thus was considered as a possible target for the Republicans. Later polling favored Kerry, leading half of the news organizations to predict that Kerry would win the state, but the other half still considered it a swing state.

Although Michigan was also not carried by the winner of the 2000 presidential race, 2004 also marked the first time since 1976 in which the state was not carried by the candidate who led in the overall popular vote. Bush is to date the only Republican presidential candidate to win two terms in office without winning Michigan at least once.

As of 2020, this is the most recent election in which Michigan would vote for the losing candidate.

Caucuses[]

• 2004 Michigan Democratic presidential caucuses

Campaign[]

Predictions[]

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.^[2]

1. D.C. Political Report: Slight Democrat
2. Associated Press: Toss-Up
3. CNN: Kerry
4. Cook Political Report: Lean Democrat
5. Newsweek: Leans Kerry
6. New York Times: Leans Kerry
7. Rasmussen Reports: Toss-Up
8. Research 2000: Lean Kerry
9. Washington Post: Battleground
10. Washington Times: Leans Kerry
11. Zogby International: Kerry
12. Washington Dispatch: Kerry

Polling[]

Pre-election polling did show a close race early on, but in the fall election Kerry pulled away and won every poll since the month of September. The last 3 poll average showed Kerry leading 49% to 46%.^[3]

Fundraising[]

Bush raised $4,960,010.^[4] Kerry raised $2,496,203.^[5]

Advertising and visits[]

In the fall campaign, Bush visited the state ten times. Kerry visited seven times. Both candidates combined spent over $2 million in advertising each week,^[6] but Kerry spent slightly more each week.^[7]

Analysis[]

Kerry won Michigan with 51.2% and by a margin of 3.4%. While a reduced margin with respect to Gore's in 2000, the state trended Democratic in 2004 relative to the nation.^[8] Bush won a majority of the state's counties and congressional districts, holding Kerry to only 15 counties (whereas Gore had carried 24). But he underperformed previous Republicans in two large suburban counties that had recently been Republican strongholds in the state, Oakland and Macomb Counties. Kerry narrowly held onto Oakland County, which had voted Republican in every election from 1940 through 1992 save 1964, and had voted to re-elect Bill Clinton in 1996 by only 4.3%. Bush did flip Macomb County, which Gore had become the second Democrat to carry after a twenty-year run of voting Republican from 1972 through 1992, but he carried it by only 1.4%, making it still slightly bluer than the nation. Meanwhile, Kerry maintained the traditional Democratic domination of Wayne County, winning about the same 69% vote share in it that Gore had won in 2000. Michigan had voted Republican in every election from 1972 through 1988, in all of which Oakland and Macomb had given the Republican a healthy margin.

Results[]

2004 United States presidential election in Michigan
Party		Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Democratic	John Kerry	2,479,183	51.2%	17
	Republican	George W. Bush (incumbent)	2,313,746	47.8%	0
	Independent	Ralph Nader	24,035	0.5%	0
	Libertarian	Michael Badnarik	10,552	0.2%	0
	Green	David Cobb	5,325	0.1%	0
	US Taxpayers	Michael Peroutka	4,980	0.1%	0
	Natural Law	Walt Brown	1,431	0.0%	0
Totals			4,839,252	100.00%	17
Voter turnout (Voting Age Population)					64.2%

Results breakdown[]

By county[]

County	Kerry		Bush		Others		Total votes
	%	#	%	#	%	#
Alcona	43.96%	2,871	55.00%	3,592	1.04%	68	6,531
Alger	50.26%	2,395	48.65%	2,318	1.09%	52	4,765
Allegan	35.90%	19,355	63.11%	34,022	0.98%	530	53,907
Alpena	48.70%	7,407	50.39%	7,665	0.91%	139	15,211
Antrim	37.24%	5,072	61.52%	8,379	1.23%	168	13,619
Arenac	49.61%	4,076	49.55%	4,071	0.84%	69	8,216
Baraga	45.06%	1,660	53.66%	1,977	1.28%	47	3,684
Barry	37.37%	11,312	61.57%	18,638	1.06%	322	30,272
Bay	54.42%	31,049	44.60%	25,448	0.98%	562	57,059
Benzie	44.83%	4,383	54.04%	5,284	1.14%	111	9,778
Berrien	43.99%	32,846	55.01%	41,076	1.00%	749	74,671
Branch	38.98%	7,004	60.02%	10,784	1.00%	179	17,967
Calhoun	47.70%	29,891	51.21%	32,093	1.09%	683	62,667
Cass	42.02%	9,537	57.12%	12,964	0.86%	196	22,697
Charlevoix	40.52%	5,729	58.09%	8,214	1.39%	196	14,139
Cheboygan	42.78%	5,941	56.15%	7,798	1.07%	148	13,887
Chippewa	43.69%	7,203	55.33%	9,122	0.99%	163	16,488
Clare	49.09%	6,984	49.82%	7,088	1.08%	154	14,226
Clinton	40.95%	15,483	58.16%	21,989	0.89%	335	37,807
Crawford	43.21%	3,126	55.52%	4,017	1.27%	92	7,235
Delta	48.76%	9,381	50.32%	9,680	0.92%	177	19,238
Dickinson	41.70%	5,650	57.08%	7,734	1.22%	165	13,549
Eaton	45.58%	25,411	53.41%	29,781	1.01%	563	55,755
Emmet	39.41%	6,846	59.48%	10,332	1.12%	194	17,372
Genesee	60.03%	128,334	39.23%	83,870	0.73%	1,571	213,775
Gladwin	47.95%	6,343	51.18%	6,770	0.86%	114	13,227
Gogebic	52.31%	4,421	46.56%	3,935	1.14%	96	8,452
Grand Traverse	39.52%	18,256	59.42%	27,446	1.06%	489	46,191
Gratiot	42.45%	7,377	56.59%	9,834	0.97%	168	17,379
Hillsdale	35.23%	7,123	63.34%	12,804	1.43%	289	20,216
Houghton	42.46%	6,731	56.08%	8,889	1.46%	231	15,851
Huron	43.68%	7,629	55.37%	9,671	0.95%	166	17,466
Ingham	57.78%	76,877	41.14%	54,734	1.08%	1,442	133,053
Ionia	38.55%	10,647	60.18%	16,621	1.27%	350	27,618
Iosco	46.82%	6,557	52.13%	7,301	1.06%	148	14,006
Iron	49.38%	3,215	49.52%	3,224	1.11%	72	6,511
Isabella	50.57%	12,334	48.19%	11,754	1.24%	302	24,390
Jackson	43.21%	31,025	55.75%	40,029	1.03%	741	71,795
Kalamazoo	51.31%	61,462	47.71%	57,147	0.98%	1,174	119,783
Kalkaska	38.05%	3,189	60.67%	5,084	1.28%	107	8,380
Kent	40.19%	116,909	58.85%	171,201	0.96%	2,781	290,891
Keweenaw	43.78%	630	54.27%	781	1.95%	28	1,439
Lake	50.99%	2,675	47.71%	2,503	1.30%	68	5,246
Lapeer	40.97%	18,086	57.89%	25,556	1.14%	505	44,147
Leelanau	43.46%	6,048	55.57%	7,733	0.98%	136	13,917
Lenawee	44.22%	20,787	54.61%	25,675	1.17%	550	47,012
Livingston	36.26%	33,991	62.79%	58,860	0.95%	891	93,742
Luce	36.94%	1,045	61.82%	1,749	1.24%	35	2,829
Mackinac	42.72%	2,819	56.16%	3,706	1.12%	74	6,599
Macomb	48.75%	196,160	50.24%	202,166	1.01%	4,084	402,410
Manistee	49.23%	6,272	49.41%	6,295	1.36%	173	12,740
Marquette	53.60%	17,412	45.22%	14,690	1.19%	386	32,488
Mason	43.34%	6,333	55.60%	8,124	1.05%	154	14,611
Mecosta	43.97%	7,730	55.23%	9,710	0.80%	141	17,581
Menominee	46.64%	5,326	52.04%	5,942	1.32%	151	11,419
Midland	42.41%	18,355	56.31%	24,369	1.27%	551	43,275
Missaukee	31.25%	2,319	68.12%	5,055	0.63%	47	7,421
Monroe	48.68%	36,089	50.54%	37,470	0.77%	573	74,132
Montcalm	42.91%	11,471	55.99%	14,968	1.10%	295	26,734
Montmorency	39.48%	2,196	59.32%	3,300	1.20%	67	5,563
Muskegon	55.14%	44,282	43.96%	35,302	0.91%	729	80,313
Newaygo	39.60%	9,057	59.49%	13,608	0.91%	208	22,873
Oakland	49.75%	319,387	49.32%	316,633	0.93%	5,957	641,977
Oceana	44.25%	5,441	54.30%	6,677	1.46%	179	12,297
Ogemaw	48.30%	5,215	50.52%	5,454	1.18%	127	10,796
Ontonagon	44.44%	1,863	53.96%	2,262	1.60%	67	4,192
Osceola	39.93%	4,467	58.98%	6,599	1.09%	122	11,188
Oscoda	40.64%	1,792	58.29%	2,570	1.07%	47	4,409
Otsego	37.98%	4,674	60.70%	7,470	1.32%	163	12,307
Ottawa	27.64%	35,552	71.55%	92,048	0.81%	1,043	128,643
Presque Isle	45.66%	3,432	52.98%	3,982	1.36%	102	7,516
Roscommon	47.43%	6,810	51.28%	7,364	1.29%	185	14,359
Saginaw	53.37%	54,887	45.86%	47,165	0.78%	800	102,852
St. Clair	45.36%	36,174	53.60%	42,740	1.04%	829	79,743
St. Joseph	38.23%	9,648	60.78%	15,340	0.99%	251	25,239
Sanilac	37.97%	7,883	60.84%	12,632	1.19%	248	20,763
Schoolcraft	48.12%	2,137	51.05%	2,267	0.83%	37	4,441
Shiawassee	46.06%	16,881	52.95%	19,407	0.99%	363	36,651 b
Tuscola	44.57%	12,631	54.31%	15,389	1.12%	318	28,338
Van Buren	47.26%	16,151	51.60%	17,634	1.14%	389	34,174
Washtenaw	63.46%	109,953	35.47%	61,455	1.07%	1,856	173,264
Wayne	69.39%	600,047	29.81%	257,750	0.80%	6,931	864,728
Wexford	39.80%	6,034	59.14%	8,966	1.06%	160	15,160

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican[]

• Alpena (largest municipality: Alpena)
• Calhoun (largest municipality: Battle Creek)
• Clare (largest municipality: Clare)
• Iosco (largest municipality: East Tawas)
• Iron (largest municipality: Iron River)
• Macomb (largest municipality: Warren)
• Manistee (largest municipality: Manistee)
• Monroe (largest municipality: Monroe)
• Ogemaw (largest municipality: Skidway Lake)
• Roscommon (largest municipality: Houghton Lake)

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic[]

• Alger (largest municipality: Munising)

By congressional district[]

Bush won 10 of 15 congressional districts.^[9]

District	Bush	Kerry	Representative
1st	53%	46%	Bart Stupak
2nd	60%	39%	Peter Hoekstra
3rd	59%	40%	Vern Ehlers
4th	55%	44%	Dave Camp
5th	41%	59%	Dale Kildee
6th	53%	46%	Fred Upton
7th	54%	45%	Nick Smith
			Joe Schwarz
8th	54%	45%	Mike Rogers
9th	51%	49%	Joe Knollenberg
10th	57%	43%	Candice Miller
11th	53%	47%	Thaddeus McCotter
12th	39%	61%	Sander Levin
13th	19%	81%	Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick
14th	17%	83%	John Conyers Jr.
15th	38%	62%	John Dingell

Electors[]

Technically the voters of Michigan cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Michigan is allocated 17 electors because it has 15 congressional districts and two senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 17 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 17 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 17 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards:

1. Carol Vining Moore
2. Margaret Robinson
3. Ida I. DeHaas
4. Marcela L. Ort
5. Vickie Sue Price
6. Paul Todd
7. Leonard Smigielski
8. Bruce McAttee
9. Stanley W. Harris
10. Yvonne Williams
11. Elizabeth D. Tavarozzi
12. Charley Jackson
13. Joan Robinson Cheeks
14. Roger Short
15. Harless Scott
16. Richard Shoemaker
17. Michael Pitt

See also[]

• Presidency of George W. Bush
• United States presidential elections in Michigan

References[]