2004 United States presidential election in Virginia

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Main article: 2004 United States presidential election
2004 United States presidential election in Virginia
← 2000 November 2, 2004 2008 →
Turnout70.8% Increase 3.6[1]
  George-W-Bush.jpeg John F. Kerry.jpg
Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Texas Massachusetts
Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards
Electoral vote 13 0
Popular vote 1,716,959 1,454,742
Percentage 53.7% 45.5%
Virginia Presidential Election Results 2004.svg
County and Independent City Results
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Virginia took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 13 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Virginia was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by an 8.20% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise a red state. The state had voted for the Republican candidate in all presidential elections since 1952 except for 1964's Democratic landslide. This pattern continued in 2004, although it would be broken four years later by the Democratic victory in 2008.

As of the 2020 presidential election, the 2004 election is the last time that Virginia has voted Republican. This was also the last time Buchanan County and Dickenson County would vote Democratic for president; and the last time Loudoun County, Prince William County, and Henrico County, and the independent Cities of Winchester, Radford, Staunton, Harrisonburg, Manassas, Suffolk, Hopewell, and Manassas Park, would vote Republican for president. As of 2020, this is the last time Virginia has voted to the right of Missouri, Florida, or Ohio.

Bush became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Fairfax County since Calvin Coolidge in 1924.

Primaries[]

  • Virginia Democratic primary, 2004

Campaign[]

Predictions[]

Elections in Virginia
Federal government
State government
Ballot measures
Alexandria
Hampton
Norfolk
Richmond
Virginia Beach
  • v
  • t

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[2]

  1. D.C. Political Report: Solid Republican
  2. Associated Press: Leans Bush
  3. CNN: Bush
  4. Cook Political Report: Lean Republican
  5. Newsweek: Lean Bush
  6. New York Times: Lean Bush
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Bush
  8. Research 2000: Solid Bush
  9. Washington Post: Bush
  10. Washington Times: Solid Bush
  11. Zogby International: Bush
  12. Washington Dispatch: Bush

Polling[]

Bush won every single pre-election poll. The final 3 poll average showed Bush leading 50% to 45%.[3]

Fundraising[]

Bush raised $8,594,386.[4] Kerry raised $6,125,128.[5]

Advertising and visits[]

Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall election.[6][7]

Analysis[]

In the last century Virginia has shifted from a largely rural, politically Southern and conservative state to a more urbanized, pluralistic, and politically moderate environment. Up until the 1970s, Virginia was a racially divided one-party state dominated by the Byrd Organization.[8] African Americans were effectively disfranchised until after passage of civil rights legislation in the mid-1960s.[9] Enfranchisement and immigration of other groups, especially Hispanics, have placed growing importance on minority voting.[10] Regional differences play a large part in Virginia politics.[11] Rural southern and western areas moved to support the Republican Party in response to its "southern strategy", while urban and growing suburban areas, including Northern Virginia, form the Democratic Party base.[12][13] Democratic support also persists in union-influenced parts of Southwest Virginia, college towns such as Charlottesville and Blacksburg, and the southeastern region.[14][15]

Results[]

United States presidential election in Virginia, 2004[16]
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican George W. Bush (inc.) Dick Cheney 1,716,959 53.73% 13
Democratic John Kerry John Edwards 1,454,742 45.53% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik Richard Campagna 11,032 0.35% 0
Constitution Michael Peroutka Chuck Baldwin 10,161 0.32% 0
Independent (Write-in) Ralph Nader (Write-in) Peter Camejo 2,393 0.07% 0
Green (Write-in) David Cobb (Write-in) Pat LaMarche 104 <0.01% 0
Write-ins - 24 <0.01% 0
Totals 3,195,415 100.00% 13
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 57.2% —

Results breakdown[]

By county[]

These results combine counties and independent cities in Virginia.

County or City Kerry % Kerry # Bush % Bush # Other % Other #
Accomack 41.3% 5,518 57.8% 7,726 0.8% 112
Albemarle 50.5% 22,088 48.5% 21,189 1.0% 449
Alleghany 44.5% 3,203 55.1% 3,962 0.4% 30
Amelia 34.5% 1,862 64.8% 3,499 0.7% 36
Amherst 38.3% 4,866 61.1% 7,758 0.6% 71
Appomattox 32.9% 2,191 65.6% 4,366 1.5% 98
Arlington 67.6% 63,987 31.3% 29,635 1.1% 1,028
Augusta 23.6% 7,019 74.4% 22,100 2.0% 585
Bath 36.3% 828 62.8% 1,432 1.0% 22
Bedford 29.0% 9,102 69.8% 21,925 1.2% 377
Bland 29.5% 846 68.5% 1,962 2.0% 57
Botetourt 30.4% 4,801 68.8% 10,865 0.8% 131
Brunswick 58.6% 4,062 41.2% 2,852 0.2% 12
Buchanan 53.7% 5,275 45.9% 4,507 0.5% 47
Buckingham 46.3% 2,789 52.8% 3,185 0.9% 53
Campbell 29.8% 6,862 69.1% 15,891 1.1% 244
Caroline 49.0% 4,878 50.2% 4,999 0.8% 77
Carroll 32.1% 3,888 67.4% 8,173 0.6% 67
Charles City 62.7% 2,155 36.5% 1,254 0.9% 30
Charlotte 40.9% 2,223 58.2% 3,166 0.9% 49
Chesterfield 36.9% 49,346 62.6% 83,745 0.5% 723
Clarke 41.5% 2,699 57.5% 3,741 1.0% 65
Craig 34.4% 901 65.1% 1,706 0.5% 14
Culpeper 35.1% 5,476 64.2% 10,026 0.7% 103
Cumberland 41.7% 1,721 57.6% 2,377 0.7% 28
Dickenson 50.8% 3,761 48.5% 3,591 0.7% 54
Dinwiddie 42.2% 4,569 57.1% 6,193 0.7% 77
Essex 46.2% 2,007 53.0% 2,304 0.8% 33
Fairfax 53.2% 245,671 45.9% 211,980 0.8% 3,728
Fauquier 35.8% 10,712 63.6% 19,011 0.6% 192
Floyd 36.9% 2,488 61.8% 4,162 1.2% 84
Fluvanna 40.3% 4,415 58.9% 6,458 0.8% 84
Franklin 36.0% 8,002 63.2% 14,048 0.8% 173
Frederick 31.0% 8,853 67.9% 19,386 1.1% 301
Giles 40.6% 3,047 57.6% 4,320 1.7% 131
Gloucester 31.3% 5,105 67.9% 11,084 0.9% 144
Goochland 34.7% 3,583 64.5% 6,668 0.8% 87
Grayson 34.0% 2,430 65.2% 4,655 0.7% 52
Greene 32.3% 2,240 65.9% 4,570 1.9% 129
Greensville 59.0% 2,514 40.7% 1,732 0.3% 12
Halifax 42.4% 6,220 57.1% 8,363 0.5% 73
Hanover 28.1% 13,941 71.4% 35,404 0.5% 266
Henrico 45.6% 60,864 53.8% 71,809 0.6% 745
Henry 42.0% 9,851 56.9% 13,358 1.1% 249
Highland 34.3% 522 64.6% 982 1.1% 16
Isle of Wight 37.0% 5,871 62.6% 9,929 0.4% 71
James City 38.4% 11,934 60.9% 18,949 0.7% 207
King and Queen 45.8% 1,506 52.9% 1,737 1.3% 43
King George 34.6% 2,739 64.7% 5,124 0.7% 58
King William 35.4% 2,436 64.0% 4,397 0.6% 39
Lancaster 39.8% 2,477 59.8% 3,724 0.5% 29
Lee 41.0% 4,005 58.0% 5,664 1.0% 101
Loudoun 43.6% 47,271 55.7% 60,382 0.7% 777
Louisa 40.2% 4,844 58.9% 7,083 0.9% 108
Lunenburg 45.0% 2,362 54.5% 2,858 0.5% 25
Madison 37.7% 2,176 61.6% 3,556 0.7% 40
Mathews 31.0% 1,589 68.2% 3,497 0.8% 43
Mecklenburg 41.4% 5,293 57.3% 7,319 1.3% 168
Middlesex 35.6% 1,914 62.0% 3,336 2.4% 127
Montgomery 44.8% 14,128 54.2% 17,070 1.0% 317
Nelson 49.6% 3,543 49.6% 3,539 0.8% 57
New Kent 30.7% 2,443 68.1% 5,414 1.1% 89
Northampton 50.5% 2,775 48.5% 2,669 1.0% 55
Northumberland 39.8% 2,548 59.8% 3,832 0.5% 29
Nottoway 43.7% 2,635 54.8% 3,303 1.5% 92
Orange 38.8% 5,015 59.9% 7,749 1.3% 164
Page 34.6% 3,324 64.8% 6,221 0.6% 58
Patrick 31.3% 2,572 67.0% 5,507 1.7% 136
Pittsylvania 33.8% 9,274 64.5% 17,673 1.7% 470
Powhatan 25.6% 3,112 73.6% 8,955 0.8% 96
Prince Edward 49.6% 3,632 48.8% 3,571 1.5% 113
Prince George 38.2% 5,066 61.3% 8,131 0.4% 57
Prince William 46.4% 61,271 52.8% 69,776 0.8% 1,016
Pulaski 37.3% 5,310 61.5% 8,769 1.2% 172
Rappahannock 45.4% 1,837 53.6% 2,172 1.0% 41
Richmond 37.0% 1,243 61.9% 2,082 1.1% 36
Roanoke 34.2% 16,082 65.1% 30,596 0.6% 295
Rockbridge 39.5% 3,627 58.9% 5,412 1.5% 142
Rockingham 24.9% 7,273 74.4% 21,737 0.7% 206
Russell 45.2% 5,167 53.2% 6,077 1.6% 179
Scott 33.4% 3,324 65.0% 6,479 1.6% 164
Shenandoah 30.2% 5,186 68.9% 11,820 0.8% 140
Smyth 33.6% 4,143 64.2% 7,906 2.2% 270
Southampton 45.8% 3,431 53.6% 4,018 0.6% 43
Spotsylvania 36.6% 16,623 62.8% 28,527 0.6% 295
Stafford 37.4% 17,208 62.0% 28,500 0.6% 278
Surry 55.5% 1,954 43.8% 1,543 0.7% 25
Sussex 55.7% 2,420 43.5% 1,890 0.8% 35
Tazewell 41.1% 7,184 57.4% 10,039 1.5% 257
Warren 37.3% 5,241 61.1% 8,600 1.6% 227
Washington 32.6% 7,339 65.5% 14,749 1.9% 426
Westmoreland 49.2% 3,370 50.1% 3,433 0.7% 45
Wise 40.5% 5,802 58.2% 8,330 1.3% 180
Wythe 31.0% 3,581 68.5% 7,911 0.5% 62
York 34.4% 10,276 64.9% 19,396 0.7% 208
Alexandria 66.8% 41,116 32.3% 19,844 0.9% 555
Bedford 41.0% 1,042 57.9% 1,472 1.1% 28
Bristol 35.7% 2,400 63.6% 4,275 0.7% 49
Buena Vista 39.2% 936 59.3% 1,417 1.5% 36
Charlottesville 71.8% 11,088 27.0% 4,172 1.2% 190
Chesapeake 42.3% 38,744 57.1% 52,283 0.6% 514
Colonial Heights 25.0% 2,061 74.5% 6,129 0.5% 41
Covington 51.2% 1,179 48.0% 1,104 0.8% 18
Danville 49.4% 9,436 49.2% 9,399 1.4% 277
Emporia 56.1% 1,247 43.7% 970 0.2% 4
Fairfax 51.2% 5,395 47.8% 5,045 1.0% 106
Falls Church 64.7% 3,944 34.0% 2,074 1.3% 80
Franklin 54.0% 1,910 45.6% 1,613 0.4% 13
Fredericksburg 54.2% 4,085 44.9% 3,390 0.9% 67
Galax 42.3% 987 57.2% 1,336 0.5% 12
Hampton 57.4% 32,016 42.0% 23,399 0.6% 326
Harrisonburg 42.8% 4,726 55.9% 6,165 1.3% 139
Hopewell 45.0% 3,573 53.6% 4,251 1.4% 112
Lexington 57.0% 1,340 41.8% 982 1.1% 27
Lynchburg 44.5% 11,727 54.7% 14,400 0.8% 213
Manassas 43.1% 5,562 56.2% 7,257 0.7% 84
Manassas Park 45.0% 1,498 54.2% 1,807 0.8% 27
Martinsville 54.2% 3,036 45.3% 2,538 0.5% 29
Newport News 52.0% 35,319 47.4% 32,208 0.6% 425
Norfolk 61.7% 43,518 37.4% 26,401 0.9% 651
Norton 48.2% 725 51.1% 768 0.7% 11
Petersburg 81.0% 9,682 18.7% 2,238 0.2% 29
Poquoson 22.0% 1,424 77.2% 5,004 0.8% 52
Portsmouth 61.0% 24,112 38.5% 15,212 0.5% 210
Radford 46.3% 2,244 52.9% 2,564 0.8% 37
Richmond 70.2% 52,167 29.1% 21,637 0.7% 521
Roanoke 52.4% 18,862 46.3% 16,661 1.3% 477
Salem 37.0% 4,254 62.0% 7,115 1.0% 115
Staunton 39.0% 3,756 60.3% 5,805 0.7% 68
Suffolk 47.3% 15,233 52.1% 16,763 0.6% 193
Virginia Beach 40.2% 70,666 59.1% 103,752 0.7% 1,269
Waynesboro 35.1% 2,792 63.9% 5,092 1.0% 79
Williamsburg 51.3% 2,216 47.8% 2,064 0.9% 40
Winchester 42.5% 3,967 56.5% 5,283 1.0% 93

Counties and independent cities that flipped from Democratic to Republican[]

  • Caroline (largest municipality: Bowling Green)
  • Russell (largest municipality: Lebanon)
  • Southampton (largest municipality: Courtland)
  • Norton (independent city)
  • Suffolk (independent city)

Counties and independent cities that flipped from Republican to Democratic[]

  • Albemarle (largest municipality: Scottsville)
  • Fairfax (largest municipality: Herndon)
  • Nelson (largest municipality: Nellysford)
  • Prince Edward (largest municipality: Farmville)
  • Danville (independent city)
  • Fairfax (independent city)
  • Williamsburg (independent city)

By congressional district[]

Bush won 9 of 11 congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.[17]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 60% 39% Jo Ann Davis
2nd 58% 42% Thelma Drake
3rd 33% 66% Robert C. Scott
4th 57% 43% Randy Forbes
5th 56% 43% Virgil Goode
6th 63% 36% Bob Goodlatte
7th 61% 38% Eric Cantor
8th 35% 64% Jim Moran
9th 60% 39% Rick Boucher
10th 55% 44% Frank Wolf
11th 50% 49% Thomas M. Davis

Electors[]

Main article: List of 2004 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of Virginia cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Virginia is allocated 13 electors because it has 11 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 13 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 13 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 13 were pledged for Bush/Cheney:

  1. Yvonne McGee McCoy
  2. Loretta H. Tate
  3. Theodore C. Brown
  4. Woodrow Harris
  5. Keith C. Drake
  6. Wendell S. Walker
  7. Peter E. Broadbent
  8. Sean Michael Spicer
  9. Lloyd C. Martin
  10. Dorothy L. Simpson
  11. Carlton John Davis
  12. Charles E. Dane
  13. Rebecca Anne Stoeckel

References[]

  1. ^ "Registration/Turnout Statistics". Virginia Department of Elections. Archived from the original on 2018-10-18. Retrieved 2018-09-18.
  2. ^ [1]
  3. ^ http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=51
  4. ^ "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". campaignmoney.com. Retrieved 26 July 2017.
  5. ^ "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President". campaignmoney.com. Retrieved 26 July 2017.
  6. ^ "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
  7. ^ "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
  8. ^ Sweeney, James R. (1999). ""Sheep without a Shepherd": The New Deal Faction in the Virginia Democratic Party". Presidential Studies Quarterly. 29: 438. doi:10.1111/1741-5705.00043. Retrieved March 31, 2008.
  9. ^ Burchett, Michael H. (Summer 1997). "Promise and prejudice: Wise County, Virginia and the Great Migration, 1910–1920". The Journal of Negro History. 82 (3): 312. doi:10.2307/2717675. JSTOR 2717675.
  10. ^ Eisman, Dale (October 25, 2006). "Webb, Allen court Hispanic, white-collar voters in N. Va". The Virginian-Pilot. Retrieved March 29, 2008.
  11. ^ Turque, Bill; Wiggins, Ovetta; Stewart, Nikita (February 13, 2008). "In Virginia, Results Signal A State in Play for November". The Washington Post. Retrieved September 29, 2008.
  12. ^ Miller, Gary; Schofield, Norman (May 2003). "Activists and Partisan Realignment in the United States". The American Political Science Review. 97 (2): 245–260. doi:10.1017/s0003055403000650. JSTOR 3118207.
  13. ^ Craig, Tim (December 11, 2007). "Tensions Could Hurt Majority in Va. Senate". The Washington Post. Retrieved December 23, 2007.
  14. ^ "State Political Profile: Virginia". The Washington Post. Associated Press. 2006. Archived from the original on August 24, 2007. Retrieved December 23, 2007.
  15. ^ Clemons, Michael L.; Jones, Charles E. (July 2000). "African American Legislative Politics in Virginia". Journal of Black Studies. 30 (6, Special Issue: African American State Legislative Politics): 744–767. doi:10.1177/002193470003000603. JSTOR 2645922.
  16. ^ http://clerk.house.gov/member_info/electionInfo/2004election.pdf
  17. ^ "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008". Swing State Project. Retrieved 26 July 2017.
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