2007 FT3

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2007 FT3
Discovery[1]
Discovered byMt. Lemmon Survey
Discovery date20 March 2007
Designations
MPC designation
2007 FT3
Minor planet category
Orbital characteristics[4]
Epoch 21 March 2007 (JD 2454180.5)
Uncertainty parameter 9
Observation arc1.2 days[5]
Aphelion1.48±0.02 AU (Q)
Perihelion0.782±0.007 AU (q)
1.13±0.02 AU (a)
Eccentricity0.308±0.006 (e)
1.2±0.03 years
298°±3° (M)
Inclination26.9°±0.43° (i)
9.9°±0.2° (Ω)
277°±2° (ω)
Earth MOID0.01 AU (1.5 million km) ?
Jupiter MOID3.83 AU (573 million km) ?
Physical characteristics
Dimensions
  • ~340 m (1,100 ft)?[5]
  • 270–590 meters
Absolute magnitude (H)
20?[4]

2007 FT3 (also written 2007 FT3) is a lost asteroid[2] with a short observation arc of 1.2 days that can not be recovered with targeted observations and awaits serendipitous survey observations. It has a poorly constrained orbit and has not been seen since 2007. It was first observed on 20 March 2007 when the asteroid was estimated to be 0.19 ± 0.01 AU (28.4 ± 1.5 million km) from Earth and had a solar elongation of 107 degrees. 2007 FT3 is the third largest asteroid with better than a 1 in 1 million cumulative chance of impacting Earth after (29075) 1950 DA and 101955 Bennu.

2013 virtual impactor[]

The 2 October 2013 virtual impactor did not occur.[5] The uncertainty region of ± 330 million kilometers wrapped around a large portion of the asteroid's orbit so that the asteroid could have been numerous different distances from the Earth.

2019 virtual impactor[]

The 3 October 2019 virtual impactor did not occur. The poorly constrained nominal orbit suggested that the closest approach the asteroid would make to Earth in 2019 was in late March at a distance of 0.14 AU (21,000,000 km; 13,000,000 mi).[6] But the line of variation (LOV) for this asteroid was hundreds of millions of kilometers long.

There was an estimated 1 in 11 million chance of the asteroid impacting Earth on 3 October 2019.[5] The nominal JPL Horizons 3 October 2019 Earth distance was 0.93 AU (139,000,000 km; 86,000,000 mi) with a 3-sigma uncertainty of ± 620 million km.[7] NEODyS listed the nominal 3 October 2019 Earth distance as 0.95 AU (142,000,000 km; 88,000,000 mi).[6]

2024 virtual impactor[]

The nominal orbit suggests that closest approach the asteroid will make to Earth in 2024 will not be until the end of December when it may be ~1 AU from Earth (the same distance the Sun is from Earth).[8] But the line of variation (LOV) for this asteroid is hundreds of millions of kilometers long.[9]

With a short 1.2 day observation arc, the Sentry Risk Table shows an estimated 1 in 13 million chance of the asteroid impacting Earth on 2 October 2024,[5] which is 2,900 times lower than the background threat.[a] The nominal JPL Horizons 2 October 2024 Earth distance is 1.7 AU (250,000,000 km; 160,000,000 mi) with a 3-sigma uncertainty of ± 500 million km.[9] NEODyS lists the nominal 2 October 2024 Earth distance as 1.7 AU (250,000,000 km; 160,000,000 mi).[8]

Virtual impactors (past and future)[5]
Date Impact
probability
(1 in) 		JPL Horizons
nominal geocentric
distance (AU) 		NEODyS
nominal geocentric
distance (AU) 		MPC[10]
nominal geocentric
distance (AU) 		Find_Orb
nominal geocentric
distance (AU) 		uncertainty[7]
region
2013-10-02 1.9 billion 0.94 AU (141 million km) 1.0 AU (150 million km) 1.1 AU (160 million km) 1.2 AU (180 million km) ± 330 million km
2019-10-03 11 million 0.93 AU (139 million km) 0.95 AU (142 million km)[6] 1.3 AU (190 million km) 1.4 AU (210 million km) ± 620 million km
2024-10-02 13 million 1.7 AU (250 million km)[9] 1.7 AU (250 million km)[8] 2.0 AU (300 million km)[10] 2.0 AU (300 million km)[11] ± 500 million km[9]

See also[]

Notes[]

  1. ^ Palermo Scale for 2024 is −3.46 and 10^3.46 = 2884.

References[]

  1. ^ "MPEC 2007-F60: 2007 FT3". IAU Minor Planet Center. 21 March 2007. Retrieved 15 August 2019. (K07F03T)
  2. ^ a b "NEODyS-2 Risk List". NEODyS (Near Earth Objects – Dynamic Site). Archived from the original on 20 November 2018. Retrieved 8 March 2021.
  3. ^ "2007 FT3". Minor Planet Center. Retrieved 11 January 2020.
  4. ^ a b c "JPL Small-Body Database Browser: (2007 FT3)" (last observation: 2007-03-21; arc: 1 day). Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Archived from the original on 15 August 2019. Retrieved 15 August 2019.
  5. ^ a b c d e f g "Earth Impact Risk Summary: 2007 FT3". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. Archived from the original on 30 December 2018. Retrieved 15 August 2019. (Wayback Machine 2012)
  6. ^ a b c "2007FT3 Ephemerides for 2019". NEODyS (Near Earth Objects – Dynamic Site). Archived from the original on 15 August 2019. Retrieved 15 August 2019.
  7. ^ a b Go to JPL Horizons. Table Settings: only need "20. Observer range & range-rate" AND "39. Range & range-rate 3-sigmas".
    RNG_3sigma = uncertainty range in km. (Soln.date: 6 April 2017 generates RNG_3sigma = 620915473 for 3 October 2019.)
  8. ^ a b c "2007FT3 Ephemerides for 2024". NEODyS (Near Earth Objects – Dynamic Site). Archived from the original on 4 April 2021. Retrieved 4 April 2021.
  9. ^ a b c d "Horizons Batch for 2024-10-02 Virtual Impactor". JPL Horizons. Retrieved 10 April 2021. RNG_3sigma = uncertainty range in km. (JPL#7/Soln.date: 2017-Apr-06 generates RNG_3sigma = 487811582 for 2024-Oct-02.)
  10. ^ a b "MPC Ephemeris Service". IAU Minor Planet Center. Retrieved 8 April 2021.
  11. ^ "Find_Orb for 2024-10-02". Project Pluto. Archived from the original on 20 April 2021. Retrieved 20 April 2021.

External links[]

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