Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale

The Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale is a logarithmic scale used by astronomers to rate the potential hazard of impact of a near-Earth object (NEO). It combines two types of data—probability of impact and estimated kinetic yield—into a single "hazard" value. A rating of 0 means the hazard is equivalent to the background hazard (defined as the average risk posed by objects of the same size or larger over the years until the date of the potential impact).^[1] A rating of +2 would indicate the hazard is 100 times as great as a random background event. Scale values less than −2 reflect events for which there are no likely consequences, while Palermo Scale values between −2 and 0 indicate situations that merit careful monitoring. A similar but less complex scale is the Torino Scale, which is used for simpler descriptions in the non-scientific media.

As of January 2022,^[2] two asteroids have a cumulative Palermo Scale value above -2: 101955 Bennu (-1.41) and (29075) 1950 DA (-1.42). A further four have cumulative Palermo Scale values above -3: 2009 JF1 (-2.58), 1979 XB (-2.73), 2000 SG344 (-2.79), and 2007 FT3 (-2.93). There are 24 that have a cumulative Palermo Scale value above -4, three of them were discovered in 2021: 2021 QM₁ (-3.01), and 2021 EU (-3.18) and 2021 GX₉ (-3.40).

Scale[]

The scale compares the likelihood of the detected potential impact with the average risk posed by objects of the same size or larger over the years until the date of the potential impact. This average risk from random impacts is known as the background risk. The Palermo Scale value, P, is defined by the equation:

${\displaystyle P\equiv \log _{10}{\frac {p_{i}}{f_{B}T}}}$

where

• p_i is the impact probability
• T is the time interval over which p_i is considered
• f_B is the background impact frequency

The background impact frequency is defined for this purpose as:

${\displaystyle f_{B}={\frac {3}{100}}E^{-{\frac {4}{5}}}{\text{ yr}}^{-1}\;}$

where the energy threshold E is measured in megatons, yr is the unit of T divided by one year.

Positive rating[]

In 2002 the near-Earth object (89959) 2002 NT7 reached a positive rating on the scale of 0.18,^[3] indicating a higher-than-background threat. The value was subsequently lowered after more measurements were taken. 2002 NT₇ is no longer considered to pose any risk and was removed from the Sentry Risk Table on 1 August 2002.^[4]

In September 2002, the highest Palermo rating was that of asteroid (29075) 1950 DA, with a value of 0.17 for a possible collision in the year 2880.^[5] By December 2015, the rating had been reduced all the way to −1.42.^[6]

For a brief period in late December 2004, with an observation arc of 190 days, asteroid (99942) Apophis (then known only by its provisional designation 2004 MN₄) held the record for the highest Palermo scale values, with a value of 1.10 for a possible collision in the year 2029.^[7] The 1.10 value indicated that a collision with this object was considered to be almost 12.6^[8] times as likely as a random background event: 1 in 37^[9] instead of 1 in 472. With further observation through 2021 there is no risk from Apophis for the next 100+ years.

See also[]

• Asteroid deflection strategies
• Asteroid impact prediction
• Earth-grazing fireball
• Impact event
• List of asteroid close approaches to Earth
• List of Earth-crossing minor planets
• Torino scale
• Transient astronomical event

References[]

Further reading[]

• The primary reference for the Palermo Technical Scale is "Quantifying the risk posed by potential Earth impacts" by Chesley et al., Icarus 159, 423-432 (2002).

External links[]

• Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale at the Sentry monitoring system by CNEOS at JPL from NASA