2010 RF12

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2010 RF12
Discovery[1][2]
Discovered byMount Lemmon Srvy.
Discovery siteMount Lemmon Obs.
Discovery date5 September 2010
Designations
MPC designation
2010 RF12
Minor planet category
NEO · Apollo[1][3]
Orbital characteristics[3]
Epoch 27 April 2019 (JD 2458600.5)
Uncertainty parameter 3[1] · 4[3]
Observation arc5 days
Aphelion1.2601 AU
Perihelion0.8608 AU
1.0605 AU
Eccentricity0.1883
1.09 yr (399 d)
260.93°
0° 54m 9s / day
Inclination0.8828°
163.84°
267.59°
Earth MOID0.00051 AU (76 thousand km; 0.20 LD)
Physical characteristics
Mean diameter
7 m[4]
6–12 meters (CNEOS)
Absolute magnitude (H)
28.4[1][3]

2010 RF12 is a very small asteroid, classified as near-Earth object of the Apollo group, that passed between Earth and the Moon on 8 September 2010, at 21:12 UTC, approaching Earth within 79,000 kilometres (49,000 mi) above Antarctica.[5] It is listed on the Sentry Risk Table as the asteroid with the greatest known probability (5%) of impacting Earth.[6][note 1] On 5 September 2096 the asteroid will approach the Earth and the (LOV) passes through where the Earth will be. The asteroid was discovered by the Mount Lemmon Survey near Tucson, Arizona on 5 September 2010 along with 2010 RX30.[1][7]

Virtual impactors[4]
Date Impact
probability
(1 in) 		JPL Horizons
nominal geocentric
distance (AU) 		uncertainty[8]
region
(3-sigma)
2095-09-05 23:46 22 0.0002719 AU (40.68 thousand km) ±770 thousand km[9]
2096-09-04 21:50 13000 1.05 AU (157 million km) ±2 billion km

Description[]

NASA's Near Earth Program estimates its size to be 7 meters (23 feet) in diameter with a mass of around 500 tonnes.[4] 2010 RF12 will make many more close approaches to Earth, with the approach of 5–6 September 2095 having a 4.6% chance (1 in 22) of colliding with Earth.[4][10][11] The nominal JPL Earth approach in 2095 is 0.00026 AU (39,000 km; 24,000 mi)[11] with Earth having a radius of approximately 6,400 kilometres (4,000 mi). The nominal NEODyS orbit has the asteroid passing 0.00022 AU (33,000 km; 20,000 mi) from Earth on 6 September 2095, with an apparent magnitude of ~12.[12] Due to the asteroid's relatively small size, there is very little danger of harm arising from such an impact; rather there is expected to be an impressive fireball (estimated in the Risk table as nearly 9 KT of energy release[4]) as the rock air bursts in the upper atmosphere and pebble sized fragments would likely fall to the ground at terminal velocity.[13] The power of the airburst would be somewhere between the 2–4 m Sutter's Mill meteorite and the 17 m Chelyabinsk meteor(which was 440 KT equivalent energy).[14]

Possible August 2022 recovery[]

2010 RF12 should be recoverable around its early August 2022 opposition[15] and before the 23 September close approach of about 0.07 AU (10,000,000 km; 6,500,000 mi).[3] It will reach an apparent magnitude of +24.0 to +24.7, and its position will have an uncertainty of roughly 10 arcminutes, 1/3rd the size of the full moon and within the field of view of imaging cameras on large telescopes. It should be detectable during that approach by telescopes of least 2 meters diameter in good observing sites, and the improvement of the orbit from the precise August 2022 position will verify or rule out possible future impacts for the next century or so.[16]

See also[]

Notes[]

  1. ^ Many small and harmless asteroids (less than ~10 meters in diameter) impact Earth every year but very few are discovered and predicted, see Asteroid impact prediction.

References[]

  1. ^ a b c d e "2010 RF12". Minor Planet Center$. 8 September 2010. Retrieved 21 January 2020.
  2. ^ "MPEC 2010-R41 : 2010 RF12". IAU Minor Planet Center. 5 September 2010. Retrieved 17 April 2014. (K10R12F)
  3. ^ a b c d e "JPL Small-Body Database Browser: (2010 RF12)" (2010-09-08 last obs.). Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Retrieved 15 November 2020.
  4. ^ a b c d e "Earth Impact Risk Summary: 2010 RF12". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. Archived from the original on 22 January 2017. Retrieved 16 April 2014.
  5. ^ "Harvard scientists keep an eye on wayward asteroids". Boston Globe Media Partners. 8 September 2010. Archived from the original on 9 September 2010. Retrieved 21 January 2020.
  6. ^ "Sentry Risk Table". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. Archived from the original on 11 September 2010. Retrieved 27 January 2018.
  7. ^ "Second Asteroid to Buzz Earth Later Today". National Geographic. 8 September 2010. Retrieved 21 January 2020.
  8. ^ Go to Horizons. Table Settings: only need "20. Observer range & range-rate" AND "39. Range & range-rate 3-sigmas".
    RNG_3sigma = uncertainty range in km. (Soln.date: 2020-May-11 generates RNG_3sigma = 764278 for 2095-Sep-05 23:46.)
  9. ^ "Horizons Batch for 2095-09-05 23:46 Virtual Impactor Time". JPL Horizons. Retrieved 10 April 2021. RNG_3sigma = uncertainty range in km. (JPL#21/Soln.date: 2020-May-11 generates RNG_3sigma = 764278 for 2095-Sep-05 23:46.)
  10. ^ "Impactor Table: 2010RF12". NEODyS-2. Retrieved 21 January 2020. (1 in 12)
  11. ^ a b "JPL Close-Approach Data: (2010 RF12)" (last observation: 2010-09-08; arc: 3 days). Retrieved 15 November 2020.
  12. ^ "2010RF12 Ephemerides for 5−6 September 2095". NEODyS (Near Earth Objects – Dynamic Site). Retrieved 21 January 2020.
  13. ^ How a Near-Earth Object Impact Might Affect Society, 9 January 2003, Clark R. Chapman, SwRI, Boulder CO USA
  14. ^ "Five Years after the Chelyabinsk Meteor: NASA Leads Efforts in Planetary Defense". NASA Planetary Defense Coordination Office. Archived from the original on 2 January 2022. Retrieved 19 January 2022.
  15. ^ "2010RF12 Ephemerides for Aug-Sep 2022". NEODyS (Near Earth Objects – Dynamic Site). Archived from the original on 18 December 2020. Retrieved 17 December 2020.
  16. ^ Deen, Sam. "2022 recovery of 2010 RF12?". Yahoo groups - Minor Planet Mailing List. Retrieved 19 October 2017.[permanent dead link]

External links[]

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