2008 United States presidential election in Tennessee

2008 United States presidential election in Tennessee

← 2004 November 4, 2008 2012 →

Nominee John McCain Barack Obama Party Republican Democratic Home state Arizona Illinois Running mate Sarah Palin Joe Biden Electoral vote 11 0 Popular vote 1,479,178 1,087,437 Percentage 56.85% 41.79%

County Results McCain   50-60%   60-70%   70-80% Obama   40-50%   50-60%   60-70%

President before election George W. Bush Republican Elected President Barack Obama Democratic

The 2008 United States presidential election in Tennessee took place on November 4, 2008, and was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose 11 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Republican John McCain defeated Democrat Barack Obama in the state by 15 percentage points. Prior to the election, 17 news organizations had correctly predicted that McCain would easily carry the state, and virtually all polling indicated the same. Most news organizations called Tennessee for McCain immediately after the polls closed. McCain slightly improved upon George W. Bush's performance in 2004, despite the nation as a whole trending significantly Democratic in 2008. This was the first time since 1960 that Tennessee did not back the overall winning candidate in a presidential election. It was also the most recent presidential election in which the Democratic candidate received more than 40% of the vote, and the last time that Jackson and Houston counties voted for a Democratic nominee.

Primaries[]

• 2008 Tennessee Democratic primary
• 2008 Tennessee Republican primary

Campaign[]

Predictions[]

Elections in Tennessee
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There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

Source	Ranking
D.C. Political Report[1]	Likely R
Cook Political Report[2]	Solid R
The Takeaway[3]	Solid R
Electoral-vote.com[4]	Solid R
Washington Post[5]	Solid R
Politico[6]	Solid R
RealClearPolitics[7]	Solid R
FiveThirtyEight[5]	Solid R
CQ Politics[8]	Solid R
The New York Times[9]	Solid R
CNN[10]	Safe R
NPR[5]	Solid R
MSNBC[5]	Solid R
Fox News[11]	Likely R
Associated Press[12]	Likely R
Rasmussen Reports[13]	Safe R

Polling[]

McCain won every single pre-election poll, and each by a double-digit margin of victory. The final 3 polls averaged McCain leading 55% to 40%.^[14]

Fundraising[]

John McCain raised a total of $2,941,065 in the state. Barack Obama raised $3,481,341.^[15]

Advertising and visits[]

Obama spent $518,659. The Republican ticket spent just $3,526.^[16] Obama visited the state once, going to Nashville. McCain visited the state twice, visiting Nashville and Blountville.^[17]

Analysis[]

Despite narrowly voting for Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996 when native son Al Gore was on the ticket as Vice President, the state, along with neighboring Arkansas has steadily been trending Republican since then. George W. Bush narrowly carried the state in 2000 over Tennessee native Gore and easily won in 2004 over John Kerry.

A handful of Tennessean counties--including those that hadn't voted Republican since landslide victors Reagan or Nixon were on the ballot, swung dramatically Republican. For example, Grundy County, in southeastern Tennessee, broke 56%-42% for John Kerry in 2004, but wound up being swept by McCain 55%-42% this year. The state was one of five states that swung even more Republican in 2008 with John McCain soundly defeating Barack Obama in the Volunteer State. 2008 marked the first time since 1960 whereby the state was carried by the losing presidential candidate. A possible factor to Tennessee ironically swinging rightward--despite the national Democratic trend--could be the state favoring Hillary Clinton, former First Lady of neighboring Arkansas, over Barack Obama in the Democratic primary, as was the case in Arkansas itself.

McCain won both East Tennessee and Middle Tennessee by landslide margins. Historically, East Tennessee, which is a part of Appalachia, is one of the few ancestrally Republican areas of the South. Most of its residents strongly opposed secession during the Civil War. They identified with the GOP after the return of peace and have remained in the Republican fold through good times and bad ever since. Some of the region's counties are among the few in the country to have never supported a Democrat for president.

However, Middle Tennessee has Democratic roots based on liberal economic policies, most famously Franklin D. Roosevelt's Tennessee Valley Authority. Middle Tennessee voted strongly for Bill Clinton of neighboring Arkansas, but Middle Tennessee native Al Gore narrowly lost the region in 2000—a loss that ultimately cost him Tennessee, and the election. In contrast, it was one of the few regions in the country which voted more Republican than in 2004.^[18] This is largely due to a growing social conservative trend in the region, particularly in the Nashville suburbs; some of the most politically active churches in the state are located there.

On the other hand, Barack Obama did improve relatively well upon John Kerry's performances in the traditionally Democratic cities of Nashville and Memphis. In the former, support amongst progressive whites led to a 3-2 victory for Obama in Davidson County.^[18] In Memphis, heavy African American turnout ensured him the largest margin in the state in Shelby County, although far from enough to outweigh his losses everywhere else in the state. McCain, however, carried the third- and fourth- most populated cities of Chattanooga in Hamilton County as well as Knoxville in Knox County.

During the same election, at the state level, Republicans picked up four seats in the Tennessee House of Representatives and three seats in the Tennessee Senate to obtain control of both chambers of the state legislature for the first time since Reconstruction.

As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last election in which Houston County and Jackson County voted for the Democratic candidate and the last until 2020 where the Democratic candidate won over a million votes.

Results[]

United States presidential election in Tennessee, 2008[19]
Party		Candidate	Running mate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Republican	John McCain	Sarah Palin	1,479,178	56.85%	11
	Democratic	Barack Obama	Joe Biden	1,087,437	41.79%	0
	Independent	Ralph Nader	Matt Gonzalez	11,560	0.44%	0
	Libertarian	Bob Barr	Wayne Allyn Root	8,547	0.33%	0
	Constitution	Chuck Baldwin	Darrell Castle	8,191	0.31%	0
	Green	Cynthia McKinney	Rosa Clemente	2,499	0.10%	0
	Write-ins	Write-ins	Write-ins	2,333	0.09%	0
	Socialist	Brian Moore	Stewart Alexander	1,326	0.05%	0
	Boston Tea	Charles Jay	Thomas Knapp	1,011	0.04%	0
Totals				2,601,982	100.00%	11
Voter turnout (Voting age population)						55.5%

Results breakdown[]

By county[]

County	Obama%	Obama#	McCain%	McCain#	Others%	Others#	Total
Anderson	36.10%	11,396	62.32%	19,675	1.58%	499	31,570
Bedford	32.42%	5,027	65.89%	10,217	1.70%	263	15,507
Benton	40.82%	2,645	57.05%	3,696	2.13%	138	6,479
Bledsoe	31.71%	1,517	66.18%	3,166	2.11%	101	4,784
Blount	29.53%	15,253	68.88%	35,571	1.59%	821	51,645
Bradley	24.50%	9,357	74.19%	28,333	1.31%	501	38,191
Campbell	30.62%	3,867	67.59%	8,535	1.79%	226	12,628
Cannon	36.85%	2,011	60.88%	3,322	2.27%	124	5,457
Carroll	34.17%	3,980	64.01%	7,455	1.81%	211	11,646
Carter	25.66%	5,587	72.82%	15,852	1.52%	330	21,769
Cheatham	33.47%	5,498	65.14%	10,702	1.39%	228	16,428
Chester	27.82%	1,797	71.02%	4,587	1.16%	75	6,459
Claiborne	29.54%	3,078	68.86%	7,175	1.60%	167	10,420
Clay	41.68%	1,248	55.98%	1,676	2.34%	70	2,994
Cocke	26.76%	3,340	71.67%	8,945	1.57%	196	12,481
Coffee	34.30%	7,132	63.73%	13,250	1.96%	408	20,790
Crockett	32.58%	1,967	66.16%	3,994	1.26%	76	6,037
Cumberland	30.68%	7,889	67.81%	17,436	1.51%	387	25,712
Davidson	59.90%	158,423	38.91%	102,915	1.19%	3,148	264,486
Decatur	32.88%	1,566	65.11%	3,101	2.02%	96	4,763
DeKalb	40.08%	2,832	57.82%	4,085	2.09%	148	7,065
Dickson	38.45%	7,506	59.82%	11,677	1.72%	336	19,519
Dyer	30.53%	4,411	68.23%	9,859	1.25%	180	14,450
Fayette	35.80%	6,892	63.22%	12,173	0.98%	189	19,254
Fentress	27.17%	1,831	71.06%	4,789	1.77%	119	6,739
Franklin	37.94%	6,613	60.46%	10,539	1.61%	280	17,432
Gibson	34.85%	7,406	63.60%	13,516	1.56%	331	21,253
Giles	39.47%	4,614	59.05%	6,902	1.48%	173	11,689
Grainger	27.54%	2,066	70.60%	5,297	1.87%	140	7,503
Greene	28.82%	7,110	69.52%	17,151	1.66%	409	24,670
Grundy	42.55%	1,971	55.33%	2,563	2.12%	98	4,632
Hamblen	30.03%	6,807	68.41%	15,508	1.56%	354	22,669
Hamilton	43.55%	64,246	55.38%	81,702	1.07%	1,572	147,520
Hancock	26.95%	604	70.86%	1,588	2.19%	49	2,241
Hardeman	52.67%	5,919	46.50%	5,225	0.83%	93	11,237
Hardin	27.84%	2,794	70.52%	7,077	1.63%	164	10,035
Hawkins	28.18%	5,930	70.13%	14,756	1.68%	354	21,040
Haywood	60.25%	4,893	38.97%	3,165	0.78%	63	8,121
Henderson	27.88%	3,021	70.79%	7,669	1.33%	144	10,834
Henry	38.04%	5,153	60.41%	8,182	1.55%	210	13,545
Hickman	41.93%	3,563	56.30%	4,784	1.78%	151	8,498
Houston	50.03%	1,678	47.94%	1,608	2.03%	68	3,354
Humphreys	47.49%	3,600	50.37%	3,818	2.14%	162	7,580
Jackson	49.41%	2,224	48.54%	2,185	2.04%	92	4,501
Jefferson	27.94%	5,178	70.65%	13,092	1.41%	262	18,532
Johnson	27.87%	1,837	70.11%	4,621	2.02%	133	6,591
Knox	37.73%	70,215	60.73%	113,015	1.53%	2,856	186,086
Lake	45.76%	1,024	52.50%	1,175	1.74%	39	2,238
Lauderdale	46.28%	4,322	52.83%	4,933	0.89%	83	9,338
Lawrence	32.22%	5,161	65.96%	10,566	1.83%	293	16,020
Lewis	37.32%	1,804	61.05%	2,951	1.63%	79	4,834
Lincoln	28.14%	3,695	70.30%	9,231	1.55%	204	13,130
Loudon	27.31%	6,058	71.29%	15,815	1.40%	311	22,184
Macon	27.99%	2,060	69.90%	5,145	2.11%	155	7,360
Madison	46.09%	20,209	53.12%	23,290	0.79%	347	43,846
Marion	39.40%	4,506	58.98%	6,746	1.62%	185	11,437
Marshall	38.27%	4,320	59.84%	6,755	1.90%	214	11,289
Maury	38.67%	13,058	60.08%	20,288	1.25%	421	33,767
McMinn	29.49%	5,539	69.13%	12,984	1.38%	259	18,782
McNairy	30.05%	3,131	68.46%	7,134	1.50%	156	10,421
Meigs	32.38%	1,372	66.01%	2,797	1.60%	68	4,237
Monroe	30.12%	5,053	68.45%	11,484	1.43%	240	16,777
Montgomery	45.50%	25,716	53.39%	30,175	1.11%	627	56,518
Moore	29.84%	881	68.09%	2,010	2.07%	61	2,952
Morgan	28.86%	1,969	69.14%	4,717	1.99%	136	6,822
Obion	32.17%	4,308	66.26%	8,873	1.58%	211	13,392
Overton	42.25%	3,419	55.57%	4,497	2.17%	176	8,092
Perry	44.30%	1,329	53.20%	1,596	2.50%	75	3,000
Pickett	31.97%	854	66.87%	1,786	1.16%	31	2,671
Polk	32.67%	2,124	65.64%	4,267	1.69%	110	6,501
Putnam	35.65%	9,739	62.60%	17,101	1.74%	476	27,316
Rhea	26.18%	2,907	72.41%	8,042	1.41%	157	11,106
Roane	31.04%	7,224	67.27%	15,658	1.69%	394	23,276
Robertson	33.74%	9,318	64.83%	17,903	1.42%	393	27,614
Rutherford	39.77%	40,460	58.87%	59,892	1.36%	1,385	101,737
Scott	25.36%	1,720	72.70%	4,931	1.95%	132	6,783
Sequatchie	31.58%	1,717	66.40%	3,610	2.02%	110	5,437
Sevier	25.35%	8,604	73.43%	24,922	1.22%	415	33,941
Shelby	63.41%	256,297	35.99%	145,458	0.60%	2,425	404,180
Smith	38.65%	2,992	58.95%	4,563	2.40%	186	7,741
Stewart	44.85%	2,470	53.68%	2,956	1.47%	81	5,507
Sullivan	28.68%	18,354	70.02%	44,808	1.30%	835	63,997
Sumner	31.96%	21,487	66.86%	44,949	1.18%	792	67,228
Tipton	31.33%	7,931	67.80%	17,165	0.87%	220	25,316
Trousdale	45.54%	1,475	52.11%	1,688	2.35%	76	3,239
Unicoi	29.17%	2,107	69.38%	5,011	1.45%	105	7,223
Union	28.58%	1,829	69.81%	4,467	1.61%	103	6,399
Van Buren	38.49%	849	58.66%	1,294	2.86%	63	2,206
Warren	38.30%	5,515	59.46%	8,562	2.24%	323	14,400
Washington	32.54%	15,941	66.03%	32,341	1.43%	700	48,982
Wayne	24.52%	1,355	73.75%	4,076	1.74%	96	5,527
Weakley	33.57%	4,596	64.68%	8,855	1.75%	239	13,690
White	34.95%	3,372	63.26%	6,103	1.78%	172	9,647
Williamson	29.78%	27,886	69.26%	64,858	0.96%	902	93,646
Wilson	31.05%	15,886	67.62%	34,595	1.33%	678	51,159

By congressional district[]

John McCain swept the state and carried seven of the state's nine congressional districts, including three districts held by Democrats. Barack Obama carried the state's two congressional districts anchored by the two largest cities of Memphis and Nashville.

District	McCain	Obama	Representative
1st	69.77%	28.77%	David Davis (110th Congress)
			Phil Roe (111th Congress)
2nd	64.21%	34.28%	John J. Duncan, Jr.
3rd	61.87%	36.86%	Zach Wamp
4th	64.06%	34.25%	Lincoln Davis
5th	42.94%	55.85%	Jim Cooper
6th	61.87%	36.59%	Bart Gordon
7th	64.76%	34.29%	Marsha Blackburn
8th	56.01%	42.73%	John S. Tanner
9th	22.51%	76.92%	Steve Cohen

Electors[]

Technically the voters of Tennessee cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Tennessee is allocated 11 electors because it has 9 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 11 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 11 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.^[20] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 11 were pledged to John McCain and Sarah Palin:

1. Sara Sellers
2. Jim Haslam
3. Wayne Cropp
4. Lisa Wheeler
5. Beth Campbell
6. Albert McCall
7. Shirley Curry
8. Marilucile Counce
9. Colin Richmond
10. Winfield Dunn
11. Chrystal Horn

References[]