2012 Missouri gubernatorial election

2012 Missouri gubernatorial election
	County results; Nixon: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 80–90%; Spence: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70%
Governor before election; Jay Nixon; Democratic	Elected Governor ; Jay Nixon; Democratic

The 2012 Missouri gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2012, to elect the Governor of Missouri. Incumbent Democratic Governor Jay Nixon won re-election against the Republican nominee, businessman Dave Spence, despite incumbent President Barack Obama losing Missouri on the same day to Republican nominee Mitt Romney. As of 2022, this is the last time a Democrat won the governorship of Missouri.

Democratic primary[]

Candidates[]

William Campbell^[1]
Jay Nixon, incumbent governor^[2]
Clay Thunderhawk^[1]

Results[]

The Democratic primary was held on August 8, 2012.

Democratic primary results
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Jay Nixon (incumbent)	269,865	86.0%
	Democratic	William Campbell	25,721	8.2%
	Democratic	Clay Thunderhawk	18,228	5.8%
Total votes			313,814	100.0%

Republican primary[]

Candidates[]

Bill Randles, businessman and corporate defense lawyer^[3]
Fred Sauer, investment executive and pro-life activist^[1]
Dave Spence, businessman^[1]
John Weiler^[1]

Polling[]

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bill Randles	Fred Sauer	Dave Spence	John Weiler	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	August 4–5, 2012	590	± 4.0%	15%	12%	42%	3%	29%
Mason-Dixon	July 23–25, 2012	400	± 5.0%	15%	1%	41%	3%	40%
Public Policy Polling	May 24–27, 2012	430	± 4.7%	11%	4%	32%	1%	43%
Public Policy Polling	January 27–29, 2012	574	± 4.1%	15%	—	11%	—	74%

Results[]

Republican primary results
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Dave Spence	333,578	59.9%
	Republican	Bill Randles	90,651	16.3%
	Republican	Fred Sauer	83,695	15.0%
	Republican	John Weiler	49,006	8.8%
Total votes			556,930	100.0%

Libertarian primary[]

Candidates[]

Jim Higgins, former officer of the Libertarian Party of Missouri^[1]

Declined[]

Leonard Steinman^[1]

Results[]

Libertarian primary results
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Libertarian	Jim Higgins	2,500	100.0%
Total votes			2,500	100.0%

General election[]

Debates[]

Complete video of debate, C-SPAN, September 21, 2012

Predictions[]

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[4]	Lean D	November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[5]	Likely D	November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report^[6]	Likely D	November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics^[7]	Lean D	November 5, 2012

Polling[]

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jay Nixon (D)	Dave Spence (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	November 2–3, 2012	835	± 3.4%	53%	45%	—	2%
SurveyUSA	October 28–November 3, 2012	589	± 4.1%	48%	39%	5%	8%
Mason-Dixon	October 23–25, 2012	625	± 4%	48%	42%	—	9%
Public Policy Polling	October 19–21, 2012	582	± 4.1%	51%	40%	—	8%
Public Policy Polling	October 1–3, 2012	700	± 3.7%	54%	35%	—	12%
Public Policy Polling	August 20, 2012	500	± 4.4%	46%	37%	—	16%
Survey USA	August 9–12, 2012	585	± 4.1%	51%	37%	5%	6%
Chilenski Strategies	August 8, 2012	663	± 3.8%	53%	39%	—	9%
Mason-Dixon	July 23–25, 2012	625	± 4.0%	48%	39%	—	13%
Public Policy Polling	May 24–27, 2012	602	± 4.0%	45%	34%	—	21%
Public Policy Polling	January 27–29, 2012	582	± 4.1%	47%	27%	—	26%

Hypothetical polling

Republican primary

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Peter Kinder	Bill Randles	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	September 9–12, 2011	400	± 4.9%	34%	14%	53%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Peter Kinder	Someone else	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	September 9–12, 2011	400	± 4.9%	22%	35%	43%

General election

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jay Nixon (D)	Bill Randles (R)	Other	Undecided
Mason-Dixon	July 23–25, 2012	625	± 4.0%	50%	35%	—	15%
Public Policy Polling	May 24–27, 2012	602	± 4.0%	46%	32%	—	22%
Public Policy Polling	January 27–29, 2012	582	± 4.1%	47%	29%	—	24%
Public Policy Polling	September 9–12, 2011	632	± 3.9%	45%	24%	—	30%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jay Nixon (D)	Matt Blunt (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	September 9–12, 2011	632	± 3.9%	50%	37%	—	13%
Public Policy Polling	April 28-May 1, 2011	555	± 3.9%	48%	38%	—	13%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jay Nixon (D)	John Danforth (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	September 9–12, 2011	632	± 3.9%	39%	45%	—	17%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jay Nixon (D)	Kenny Hulshof (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	April 28-May 1, 2011	555	± 3.9%	51%	34%	—	15%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jay Nixon (D)	Peter Kinder (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	September 9–12, 2011	632	± 3.9%	50%	31%	—	18%
Public Policy Polling	April 28-May 1, 2011	555	± 3.9%	48%	34%	—	18%
Public Policy Polling	March 3–6, 2011	612	± 4.0%	45%	38%	—	17%
Public Policy Polling	Nov. 29-December 1, 2010	515	± 4.3%	47%	39%	—	14%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jay Nixon (D)	Sarah Steelman (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	Nov. 29-December 1, 2010	515	± 4.3%	46%	35%	—	19%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jay Nixon (D)	Jim Talent (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	September 9–12, 2011	632	± 3.9%	47%	38%	—	14%

Results[]

Nixon won with a comfortable margin, even though it was a little closer than his 2008 victory. Even with President Barack Obama losing the state by a nine-point margin, Nixon and Senator Claire McCaskill both won reelection easily. Nixon, like McCaskill was able to get a huge number of votes from rural areas. Both Nixon and McCaskill were declared the winners of their respective races, even before the known Democratic strongholds of St. Louis, and Kansas City came in.

Missouri gubernatorial election, 2012^[8]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Jay Nixon (incumbent)	1,494,056	54.77%	-3.63%
	Republican	Dave Spence	1,160,265	42.53%	+3.04%
	Libertarian	Jim Higgins	73,509	2.70%	+1.59%
	Write-in		53	0.00%	0.00%
Total votes			2,727,883	100.00%	N/A
	Democratic hold

By congressional district[]

Nixon won 5 of 8 congressional districts.^[9]

District	Nixon	Spence	Representative
1st	81.38%	13.21%	Lacy Clay
2nd	50.67%	47.37%	Todd Akin (112th Congress)
2nd	50.67%	47.37%	Ann Wagner (113th Congress)
3rd	48.20%	49.08%	Russ Carnahan (112th Congress)
3rd	48.20%	49.08%	Blaine Luetkemeyer (113th Congress)
4th	49.16%	47.46%	Vicky Hartzler
5th	66.00%	31.20%	Emanuel Cleaver
6th	50.09%	46.96%	Sam Graves
7th	43.75%	53.39%	Billy Long
8th	48.27%	49.06%	Jo Ann Emerson

References[]

^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g Redden, Susan (April 2, 2012). "Susan Redden: Candidates for governor, lieutenant governor total 23". The Joplin Globe. Retrieved May 25, 2012.
^ "Gov. Nixon confirms he will seek re-election". Associated Press. December 16, 2010. Archived from the original on July 29, 2012. Retrieved December 16, 2010.
^ "Governor candidate Randles: Voters reject 'next guy in line' philosophy". 25 August 2011.
^ "2012 Governor Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
^ "PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
^ "2012 Gubernatorial Ratings". Gubernatorial Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
^ "2012 Elections Map - 2012 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
^ https://enrarchives.sos.mo.gov/enrnet/default.aspx?eid=750002497
^ "Daily Kos".

External links[]

Elections from the Missouri Secretary of State

Campaign sites (Archived)

[jg-1] ^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g Redden, Susan (April 2, 2012). "Susan Redden: Candidates for governor, lieutenant governor total 23". The Joplin Globe. Retrieved May 25, 2012.

[2] "Gov. Nixon confirms he will seek re-election". Associated Press. December 16, 2010. Archived from the original on July 29, 2012. Retrieved December 16, 2010.

[3] "Governor candidate Randles: Voters reject 'next guy in line' philosophy". 25 August 2011.

[4] "2012 Governor Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved November 30, 2018.

[5] "PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved November 30, 2018.

[6] "2012 Gubernatorial Ratings". Gubernatorial Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 30, 2018.

[7] "2012 Elections Map - 2012 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved November 30, 2018.

[8] ttps://enrarchives.sos.mo.gov/enrnet/default.aspx?eid=750002497

[9] "Daily Kos".

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2012 Missouri gubernatorial election

Contents

Democratic primary[]

Candidates[]

Results[]

Republican primary[]

Candidates[]

Polling[]

Results[]

Libertarian primary[]

Candidates[]

Declined[]

Results[]

General election[]

Debates[]

Predictions[]

Polling[]

Results[]

By congressional district[]

See also[]

References[]

External links[]