2021 Russian legislative election

This article documents a current election. Information may change rapidly as the election progresses, until official results have been published. Initial news reports may be unreliable, and the to this article may not reflect the most current information. Please feel free to (but note that updates without valid and reliable references will be removed) or discuss changes on the talk page. (Learn how and when to remove this template message)

2021 Russian legislative election

← 2016 17–19 September 2021 By 2026 →
← outgoing members
All 450 seats to the State Duma 226 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered	110,311,810 (July 2020)[1]
Turnout	25,64 % (15:00 UTC+3 18 September)
Leader Sergey Shoigu Gennady Zyuganov Vladimir Zhirinovsky Party United Russia CPRF LDPR Leader since 19 June 2021[a] 14 February 1993 12 April 1991 Leader's seat Federal List Federal List Federal List Last election 54.20%, 343 seats 13.34%, 42 seats 13.14%, 39 seats   Leader Sergey Mironov Aleksey Zhuravlyov Rifat Shaykhutdinov Party SRZP Rodina Civic Platform Leader since 22 February 2021 29 September 2012 17 April 2015 Leader's seat Federal List [b] / Federal List Neftekamsk / Federal List Last election 6.81%,[c] 23 seats 1.51%, 1 seat 0.22%, 1 seat
All 225 Russian legislative constituencies in relation to their Federal Subjects.
Incumbent Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin United Russia

Legislative elections are currently being held in Russia from 17 to 19 September 2021. At stake are 450 seats in the State Duma of the 8th convocation, the lower house of the Federal Assembly. Going into the elections, United Russia is the ruling party after winning the 2016 elections with 54.2% of the vote, taking 343 seats.

In March 2020, it was proposed to hold a snap election in September 2020 due to proposed constitutional reforms, but this idea was abandoned.^[2] On 18 June 2021, President Vladimir Putin signed a decree calling the election for 19 September.^[3] Owing to the pandemic, according to the decision of the Central Election Commission, voting in the elections will last for three days, from 17 to 19 September.^[4]

15 political parties submitted documents for participation in the election.^[5] 14 were guaranteed automatic access to the election ballot,^[6][7][8] and one unsuccessfully attempted to be included in the ballot by collecting voters' signatures.^[9] Half, or 225 seats of the State Duma are elected through legislative constituencies. The other 225 seats are elected through party lists.

Background[]

Pension reform[]

After the 2016 Russian legislative election, United Russia was the most popular party, with its polling rates ranging from 40% to 55%, while the ratings of the main opposition parties were much lower: the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF) and the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) each had just over 10%, while A Just Russia (JR) was around the 5% threshold required to enter the State Duma.

In June 2018, after Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev announced a reform to raise the retirement age, the rating of ruling party United Russia fell sharply and since then has fluctuated from around 35% to 25% sparking the 2018 Russian pension protests during summer. At the same time, the CPRF's rating has grown and currently ranges from 11% to 17%, while the rating of JR had also increased but still remained relatively low and varied in between 5% and 8%, and the rating of the LDPR has remained consistent at around 10% to 13%. Polling results differ on whether the Communists or Liberal Democratic Party are ranked as the second most popular party. The ratings of all non-parliamentary parties combined ranges from around 6% to 17%, with exact numbers for each party unknown. When the share of people who answered they wouldn't vote and who are unsure are equally distributed among the parties, voter share for United Russia fluctuates around 41%, CPRF around 20%, LDPR around 15%, JR around 8%, and other parties around 14%.

Constitutional reform and speculations about a snap election[]

On 15 January 2020, during his Address to the Federal Assembly, President Vladimir Putin proposed a referendum to be held on the number of amendments arguing that a national vote would be necessary to make the changes to the Constitution of Russia "legitimate".^[10] The amendments proposed to weaken the executive power and expand the powers of the Parliament. In particular, it is supposed to transfer the power to form a government to the State Duma. This means that if the amendments were adopted, the next Cabinet would be formed by the State Duma.^[11] Immediately after Putin's speech, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev resigned along with the entire government. The next day, Mikhail Mishustin was appointed as the new PM. After that, there were suggestions about the dissolution of the State Duma and holding a snap election after the constitutional reform. At present, the State Duma can only be dissolved if it refuses the President's appointment of a Prime Minister three times in a row or passes a no-confidence motion against the government. According to sources from the Presidential Administration, the Constitution may be amended to allow self-dissolution of the State Duma. Some political scientists and MPs also have said that the dissolution of the State Duma and holding of a snap election is likely;^[12][13][14] however, this opinion is not shared by Andrey Klishas, head of the Legal Committee of the Federation Council, who is part of the working group on preparing amendments to the Constitution.^[15]

On 10 March 2020, during the second reading of the draft law on amendments to the Constitution, MP Alexander Karelin introduced an amendment on holding a snap election.^[16] The amendment gave the State Duma the opportunity to decide once to dissolve itself after the amendments were adopted. At first, the proposal was supported by a majority of deputies, but because there was no consensus on this issue (in particular, the Communist Party was against it), President Vladimir Putin urged not to dissolve the State Duma. Karelin then withdrew the amendment.^[17][18] If the amendment had been passed, a snap election would have been held on 13 or 20 September 2020.^[19] MP Valentina Tereshkova proposed a "reset" on Putin's presidential terms, which would allow him to stay in office past his second term until 2036 as it was originally set to end in 2024. United Russia supported Tereshkova's proposal, and in Putin's response "I believe and am deeply convinced that a strong presidential power is absolutely necessary for our country [and] for stability," he declared, citing examples of countries without presidential term limits and referencing former U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt who served four consecutive terms^[20][21] As a result, the decision received backlash among the opposition and political groups, accusing Putin of trying to serve as president for life.^[21]

A constitutional referendum was held from 25 June to 1 July 2020, from there, 78% of Russian voters approved on the new amendments including extension of Putin's term to 2036.^[22] Despite the outcome, the referendum was criticized as being flawed with cases of electoral fraud.^[23] Unsanctioned protests over the result of the vote occurred to with 140 people being detained in Moscow.^[24]

In spite of the rejection of the self-dissolution amendment, the legal possibility of holding snap election remained (in the case of a triple refusal of the State Duma to confirm the Prime Minister or Ministers, or a double vote of no confidence in the government). Immediately after the amendments to the Constitution came into force, speculation about possible early elections resumed. In particular, the leader of A Just Russia, Sergey Mironov, assumed that early elections could be held, referring to the desire of the country's senior leadership.^[25] According to analysts, a snap election could have been held in December 2020 or early 2021.^[26]

COVID-19 pandemic[]

Owing to the COVID-19 pandemic, the format of individual electoral events can be changed for health reasons. In particular, in 2020, a law was passed that allows early voting at polling stations two days before the official voting day. In addition, the polling stations themselves can be organized outside the premises, but this decision is not mandatory and may be made by the Central Election Commission within ten days after the election is scheduled.^[27][28]

Electoral system[]

Under current election laws, the State Duma is elected for a term of five years through parallel voting. Half of the seats (225) are elected by party-list proportional representation with a 5% electoral threshold, with the other half elected in 225 single-member constituencies by first-past-the-post voting (plurality voting).^[29]

In the proportional part, candidates can be nominated only by political parties. The lists of parties must include at least 200 and no more than 400 candidates. The list may also include candidates who are not members of the party, but their number should not exceed 50% of the number of candidates on the list. The party list of candidates should be divided into federal and regional parts. The regional part includes regional groups of candidates corresponding to the group of bordering federal subjects. The number of regional groups must be at least 35. No more than fifteen candidates may be included in the federal part of the list of candidates. The regional parts of the party list should cover the entire territory of Russia.^[30]

In the majoritarian part, candidates can be nominated both by political parties and in the order of self-nomination. The political party must provide a list of candidates to the Central Election Commission, and the list must contain the name and number of the constituencies in which each candidate will run. Documents of candidates-self-nominees, unlike candidates from political parties, have to submit applications to District Election Commissions.^[31] For registration, the self-nominated candidate must collect at least 3% of the signatures of voters residing in the constituency (or at least 3,000 signatures if the constituency has less than 100,000 voters).^[32]

One and the same candidate can be nominated both in the party list and in the single-member constituency; however, in the case of their passage to the State Duma and the party list and in the single-member constituency, they will need to give up one of the places (usually refuse the seat received on the party list, as in this case the party does not lose this seat and simply will pass it on to another candidate).

Changes in the electoral system[]

Owing to the falling ratings of the ruling party United Russia, it was assumed that the party would try to reform the electoral system in order to maintain a majority in the new State Duma. In particular, it was assumed that the share of MPs elected by party lists could be reduced from 50% (225 seats) to 25% (112 or 113), and the rest would be elected in single-member constituencies by first-past-the-post voting,^[33] or elections on the party lists could be canceled altogether and all 450 seats would be elected in single-member constituencies;^[34] however, such assumptions were not justified, and the electoral system remained the same.

In April 2021, an amendment was made to the Federal Law on Elections to the State Duma, increasing the federal part of the party list from 10 to 15 candidates.^[35]

Suppression of opposition candidates[]

A number of candidates from both official and unofficial opposition have been barred from participating in elections. Some of the unofficial opposition candidates were barred from running on the pretext of relation to the Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK) by the time declared by current government as an "extremist" organization. Nearly everyone who was suspected to be a member of or have ever appeared on any of FBK-organized events was ruled out as an "extremist" by a mere association with FBK. FBK-associated candidates for Duma who weren't allowed to get on ballot include: Lyubov Sobol, Ilya Yashin, Oleg Stepanov, Irina Fatyanova, and Alexandra Semenova.^[36]

Pavel Grudinin, high-profile candidate of the Communist Party was also barred from participating for allegedly owning foreign assets.^[37] Among Yabloko party candidates who were barred from the elections are Yulia Galyamina, Lev Schlossberg, Viktor Rau, Natalia Rezontova, Yelena Izotova, Ruslan Zinatullin, Anatoly Nogovitsin. Six Party of Growth candidates were eliminated in a single court ruling over alleged foreign funding — Rafail Gibadullin, Magomed Magomedaliev, Elena Motova, Evgenia Orlova, Alexei Uryvaev and Zaur Shakhbanov. Two independent candidates, Anton Furgal and Roman Yuneman, were removed from the candidate lists using other legal pretexts.^[38]

While non-systemic opposition has been largely eliminated from the elections, systemic opposition candidates have been targeted by various semi-legal intimidation techniques, for example "doppelganger candidates",^[39] where a person of similar look and surname is put on the same ballot in order to confuse voters.^[39]

Smart voting[]

Alexey Navalny, a high-profile opposition member, who has been jailed and whose organization FBK was dissolved later has introduced (in 2018) an election strategy called Smart Voting that is an approach for organized and targeted voting agitation for candidates who are seemingly independent. Its goal is to exclude candidates dominated by United Russia from having a seat (getting elected) in parliament. Smart Vote had some success in the past in both 2019 Moscow City Duma election, and Russian regional elections in 2020 and has helped many candidates (not associated with the ruling party) to get over 141 (21.9%) parliamentary seats in the latter.^[40][41][42] The actions against it are perceived as a sign that the government expects similar result in the current elections.^{[39][failed verification]} As of early September 2021 the Smart Vote application was operational.

On September 6 the website has been banned in Russia and Internet censorship agency Roskomnadzor issued warnings to Apple and Google for allowed Smart Vote app to be distributed on their platforms.^[42] In addition to that, a small wool-trading company from Dagestan allegedly registered the "Smart Voting" trademark and is pursuing its protection across the country attempting to further prevent its spread.^[43]

Other "dark technologies" intended to discredit other systemic cadidates — for example, appraisals from rapist Viktor Mokhov, controversial showman Stas Baretsky, naked women pretending to be "Femen" activists, people pretending to be representing LGBT community and other groups controversial in Russia.^[39]

On September 17, 2021, both Apple Store and Google Store for mobile platforms have removed the Smart Vote app after a brief investigation into an app publication by a commission of Federation Council, a Russian upper parliament body.^[44]

Observers[]

According to Al Jazeera many independent and international monitors consider many of Russian elections conducted during Vladimir Putin's tenure generally rigged.^[45]

International[]

Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) representatives were restricted by Putin's government in an access to the election citing COVID-19 concerns and making no further clarifications on details.^[46] As result, the OSCE has decided to not to be present at all.^[46][40][47] The Russian authorities (they claimed) insisted on limiting a number of observers to 50 individuals (10 for OSCE PA) in the absence of any COVID-19 restrictions deployed in the country at the time (see Russian response to COVID-19 pandemic).^[46][47] Earlier, the ODIHR has determined that 420 short-term and 80 long-term observers would be needed in order to reliably assess the process.^[47]

According to TASS 55 unnamed countries would send up to 249 delegates to observe the election.^[48]

PACE has announced that it will send a 5 members mission to Moscow for thee days of the election.^[49][50]

Belarus[]

The National Assembly of Belarus has reportedly sent a delegation to Russia to observe the voting process. The group consisted of the same parliament members who are part to the Union State.^[51]

Parties[]

As of August 2021, there are 32 registered political parties in Russia.^[52] Parties represented in the State Duma (in this case, seats must be obtained in the vote on the party list), parties that received more than 3% of the vote (by party list) in the previous elections, or parties that are represented at least in one of the regional parliaments (also by party list) are allowed to contest in the elections without collecting signatures. Other parties need to collect 200,000 signatures if they have also held conventions and nominated candidates to participate in the elections. The official list of parties entitled to participate in the elections without collection of signatures was announced before the election. After the 2020 regional elections, there are only 14 such parties.^[6][53][54]

Free access to election[]

Parties that did not participate in the election[]

Campaign[]

Party of Growth[]

On 19 December 2018, Party of Growth became the first party to launch a campaign when its leader Boris Titov opened the party's "Election 2021" federal headquarters in Miass, Chelyabinsk Oblast.

According to Titov, the party will focus on elections in single-mandate constituencies, not party lists. He said: "Today, no slogans, no 'locomotives'^{[b 1]} we can't win [...] we can't cover the whole of Russia, so it's easier for us to focus on specific constituencies. We need real candidates who will be known on the ground. And the electorate who will know first of all the person, and not even the Party of Growth." The party will nominate about 40 candidates in single-member constituencies.

According to the plan, deputies elected in the course of elections to municipal and regional legislative bodies prior to 2021 should form the election headquarters of the main candidates.^[80][81]

On 7 July 2020 a party convention was held in Moscow, at which the party program was approved, and governing bodies were elected. Boris Titov retained the post of party leader, while the posts of co-chairmen of the party were established.^[82] In addition to Titov, nine people became co-chairs: musician Sergey Shnurov, actor Nikolai Fomenko, former Minister of Labor and MP Oksana Dmitriyeva, former MP , economist , journalist Alexander Lyubimov, businessman , social entrepreneur and human rights activist .^[83]

On 30 September 2020, Titov said that the party list will be headed by Sergey Shnurov if he takes up the offer and the party approves.^[84]

United Russia[]

United Russia launched its campaign at the party convention on 23 November 2019. The convention identified priorities and key areas of work that should allow the party to maintain its position as the leading political force in Russia and win the 2021 election.^[85] The leader of the party, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said that he would head a commission to prepare a new election program for the party.^[86] In addition, a project office was established to prepare for the election.^[87]

According to the party's General Council Secretary Andrey Turchak, United Russia will fight to preserve its constitutional majority, and intends to win at least 301 seats.^[88]

According to sources from the party leadership, United Russia has assessed the work of its deputies in the State Duma. Based on this assessment, not all of them will be able to run in the upcoming election. It is assumed that about half of the faction will be made up of new deputies.^[89]

On 15 January 2020, party leader Dmitry Medvedev resigned from office of the Prime Minister of Russia.^[90] Current Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin is not a member of United Russia or any other party. At the same time, Medvedev remains the party's leader.^[91]

In July, Turchak announced the start of preparations for the party's election program.^[92] Medvedev said the new version of the Russian Constitution should be used as the basis for the election program.^[93]

On 22 October 2020, it became known that the party leadership had identified the first group of candidates for single-member constituencies. This group includes 71 incumbent MPs, whom the party intends to nominate again in their constituencies. Among these MPs is the party's parliamentary leader Sergey Neverov.^[94]

On 19 June 2021, the party's pre-election congress was held in Moscow, at which the candidates and the party's program were approved. At the congress, President Vladimir Putin proposed the following five individuals for the party's federal list for the elections: Sergey Shoygu (Defence Minister), Sergey Lavrov (Foreign Minister), (head doctor of Russia's main coronavirus hospital), (co-chair of the All-Russia People's Front), and Anna Kuznetsova (Children's Rights Commissioner for the President of the Russian Federation).^[95] To the surprise of many analysts, former Prime Minister and party leader Dmitry Medvedev did not top the list.^[95]

The party also campaigned in the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic in eastern Ukraine, where half a million Russian passports had been received by local residents.^[96]

United Russia Primaries[]

From 24 to 30 May 2021, United Russia held primaries to select candidates for the election. These were the third legislative primaries held by the party since 2011 and the second open primaries in which all Russian citizens could participate. Electronic voting was used in the primaries due to the COVID-19 pandemic.^[97][98]

A total of 7,624 candidates participated in the primaries, of which almost half were not party members. Of the 336 incumbent deputies from the party, only 237 applied to participate in the primaries.^[99]

Yabloko[]

On 14 and 15 December 2019, Yabloko held its party convention in Moscow. Elections of the party leadership, including its leader, were held during the convention. Nikolay Rybakov was elected the new leader of the party for the next four years. He said his main goal will be to transform the party for the 2021 election. Rybakov said: "We'll see Yabloko, where the candidates will be requested to prepare for the election campaign starting from Monday in practice. If you enter an election campaign late people do not have time to learn that there are candidates from Yabloko."^[100] Rybakov has stated that he expects to win approximately 10% of the electorate. When asked by a journalist if he is open to working with supporters of Alexei Navalny and in fact nominating some of his supporters as candidates, Rybakov replied: "We are open to conversation. We are discussing all this." On 3 July, Grigory Yavlinsky, the founder of the party, decided to not run for parliament, instead endorsing younger candidates. Yabloko was expected to nominate other famous opposition candidates such as Dmitry Gudkov and , along with many Navalny supporters.^[101][102]

In an early August interview with Dozhd, Grigory Yavlinsky denounced "Navalny's Politics" and his Smart Voting strategy. Yavlinsky also called on Navalny supports to not vote for Yabloko.^[103] As a consequence, experts from Carnegie Moscow Center have stated that Yabloko has lost all chances at overcoming the 5% electoral threshold.^[104]

A Just Russia — For Truth[]

On 20 January 2021, Sergey Mironov announced the merger of A Just Russia, Patriots of Russia and For Truth.^[105][106] A congress was held on 22 February, at which the three parties officially united into one and its leadership was be elected. Mironov became the leader of the new party, while Zakhar Prilepin and Gennady Semigin (the leaders of the other two parties) were appointed co-chairmen. The new party is called the Socialist Party "A Just Russia — Patriots — For Truth", or simply A Just Russia — For Truth.^[107]

A Just Russia[]

On 24 September 2020, A Just Russia launched its election campaign at a meeting of the presidium of the central council of the party. According to party leader Sergey Mironov, he will carry out general management of the campaign, and the head of the election headquarters will be MP Valery Gartung.^[108]

For Truth[]

On 22 October 2020, at a meeting of the party's central committee, it was decided that party leader Zakhar Prilepin would head the party list of candidates for the election. Prilepin rejected speculation about his intention to run from a single-member constituency in the Nizhny Novgorod Oblast and said that he would run only as part of the federal list. Prilepin also said that Nikolai Starikov and will also run only on the party list.^[109]

Mikheev explained this decision by saying that it is more reasonable to nominate the most famous candidates on the party list, since candidates in single-member constituencies do not participate in debates.

New People[]

On 21 October 2020, party leader announced that he would head the party list in the election. According to him, the party intends to nominate more than 200 candidates in single-member constituencies. According to Nechaev, the party expects to get 15-20% of the vote.^[110] According to the results of the 2020 regional elections, New People was named the most promising party of the so-called "new" political parties (parties registered in 2020),^[111] as well as one of the two non-parliamentary parties that has a chance to overcome the 5% barrier.^[112][113]

On 30 November 2020, it became known that political strategist has been chosen as the head of the party's election headquarters. According to political commentators, Minchenko as the head of campaign significantly increases the party's chances of being elected to the State Duma, since he previously conducted successful election campaigns in some post-Soviet countries.^[114]

On 21 December 2020, Nechaev party announced that the party intends to spend about 500 million rubles on its election campaign for the party list (for comparison, only the Liberal Democratic Party spent more than 500 million rubles in the previous election).^[115][116]

Communist Party of the Russian Federation[]

The Communist Party launched its campaign during the plenum of the central committee of the party on 24 October 2020. Party leader Gennady Zyuganov instructed to start developing an electoral program. According to the party's representative, the program will be less populist than in the 2016 election. The program will be more detailed for specific groups of voters.^[117]

During the plenum, Zyuganov also proposed creating a new coalition, the Popular Front of the Left and Patriots.^[118]

On 14 December 2020, Deputy Chairman of the Central Committee of the party Yury Afonin said that the party intends to hold the next (non-election) convention in spring 2021. It is planned to elect the party leadership at the convention. Initially, it was planned that the convention would be held after the election - in the fall of 2021. According to Afonin, it was decided to hold a this convention earlier because "the campaign will be tense, and attempts will be made to beat the candidates".^[119]

Green Alternative[]

Green Alternative launched its campaign on 22 November 2020 at a party board meeting. According to party leader , the party will focus on social issues, health care, science, protection of minority rights, etc., as well as environmental issues as implied by its name.^[120]

Party of Pensioners[]

The Russian Party of Pensioners for Social Justice launched its campaign on 7 December 2020 at a meeting of the party's presidium of the central council.^[121]

According to some experts, the Party of Pensioners is one of two non-parliamentary parties that have a chance to overcome the 5% barrier.^[112][113]

Liberal Democratic Party[]

The Liberal Democratic Party launched its campaign during the party's convention on 14 December 2020. The party leadership was elected at the convention, and Vladimir Zhirinovsky was re-elected as its leader. Owing to the COVID-19 pandemic, the convention was held in a truncated format. Nevertheless, the Liberal Democratic Party became one of the few Russian political parties and the only parliamentary political party to hold a convention despite the pandemic.^[122]

Russian Party of Freedom and Justice[]

On 28 March 2021, the convention of the Communist Party of Social Justice was held, at which political strategist Konstantin Rykov was elected as the new chairman of the central committee of the party. At the same congress, it was decided to rename the party to the Russian Party of Freedom and Justice.^[123]

On 31 March it was announced that the party list would be headed by journalist Maxim Shevchenko.^[124]

Russian Ecological Party "The Greens"[]

Russian Ecological Party "The Greens" launched its campaign on 15 May 2021, during the party's convention. At the convention, a decision was made to start preparing for the election. The congress also included elections to the party's governing bodies, and was elected its new leader.^[125]

Opinion polls[]

Forecasts[]

In the run-up to the elections, some organizations have made forecasts of the election results.

Footnotes[]

References[]