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Artificial intelligence (AI) is intelligence demonstrated by machines, as opposed to the natural intelligence displayed by humans or animals. Leading AI textbooks define the field as the study of "intelligent agents": any system that perceives its environment and takes actions that maximize its chance of achieving its goals.^[a] Some popular accounts use the term "artificial intelligence" to describe machines that mimic "cognitive" functions that humans associate with the human mind, such as "learning" and "problem solving", however this definition is rejected by major AI researchers.^[b][c]

AI applications include advanced web search engines (i.e. Google), recommendation systems (used by YouTube, Amazon and Netflix), understanding human speech (such as Siri or Alexa), self-driving cars (e.g. Tesla), and competing at the highest level in strategic game systems (such as chess and Go),^[2] As machines become increasingly capable, tasks considered to require "intelligence" are often removed from the definition of AI, a phenomenon known as the AI effect.^[3] For instance, optical character recognition is frequently excluded from things considered to be AI,^[4] having become a routine technology.^[5]

Artificial intelligence was founded as an academic discipline in 1956, and in the years since has experienced several waves of optimism,^[6][7] followed by disappointment and the loss of funding (known as an "AI winter"),^[8][9] followed by new approaches, success and renewed funding.^[7][10] AI research has tried and discarded many different approaches during its lifetime, including simulating the brain, modeling human problem solving, formal logic, large databases of knowledge and imitating animal behavior. In the first decades of the 21st century, highly mathematical statistical machine learning has dominated the field, and this technique has proved highly successful, helping to solve many challenging problems throughout industry and academia.^[11][10]

The various sub-fields of AI research are centered around particular goals and the use of particular tools. The traditional goals of AI research include reasoning, knowledge representation, planning, learning, natural language processing, perception and the ability to move and manipulate objects.^[d] General intelligence (the ability to solve an arbitrary problem) is among the field's long-term goals.^[12] To solve these problems, AI researchers use versions of search and mathematical optimization, formal logic, artificial neural networks, and methods based on statistics, probability and economics. AI also draws upon computer science, psychology, linguistics, philosophy, and many other fields.

The field was founded on the assumption that human intelligence "can be so precisely described that a machine can be made to simulate it".^[e] This raises philosophical arguments about the mind and the ethics of creating artificial beings endowed with human-like intelligence. These issues have been explored by myth, fiction and philosophy since antiquity.^[13] Science fiction and futurology have also suggested that, with its enormous potential and power, AI may become an existential risk to humanity.^[14][15]

History

Silver didrachma from Crete depicting Talos, an ancient mythical automaton with artificial intelligence

Precursors

Artificial beings with intelligence appeared as storytelling devices in antiquity,^[16] and have been common in fiction, as in Mary Shelley's Frankenstein or Karel Čapek's R.U.R.^[17] These characters and their fates raised many of the same issues now discussed in the ethics of artificial intelligence.^[18]

The study of mechanical or "formal" reasoning began with philosophers and mathematicians in antiquity. The study of mathematical logic led directly to Alan Turing's theory of computation, which suggested that a machine, by shuffling symbols as simple as "0" and "1", could simulate any conceivable act of mathematical deduction. This insight, that digital computers can simulate any process of formal reasoning, is known as the Church–Turing thesis.^[19]

Cybernetics and brain simulation

The Church-Turing thesis, along with concurrent discoveries in neurobiology, information theory and cybernetics, led researchers to consider the possibility of building an electronic brain.^[20] The first work that is now generally recognized as AI was McCullouch and Pitts' 1943 formal design for Turing-complete "artificial neurons".^[21] By 1960, this approach was largely abandoned, although elements of it would be revived in the 1980s.

Symbolic AI

When access to digital computers became possible in the mid-1950s, AI research began to explore the possibility that human intelligence could be reduced to symbol manipulation. John Haugeland named these symbolic approaches to AI "good old fashioned AI" or "GOFAI".^[22] Approaches based on cybernetics or artificial neural networks were abandoned or pushed into the background.

The field of AI research was born at a workshop at Dartmouth College in 1956.^[f][25] The attendees became the founders and leaders of AI research.^[26][g] They and their students produced programs that the press described as "astonishing":^[h] computers were learning checkers strategies, solving word problems in algebra, proving logical theorems and speaking English.^[i][28] By the middle of the 1960s, research in the U.S. was heavily funded by the Department of Defense^[29] and laboratories had been established around the world.^[30]

Researchers in the 1960s and the 1970s were convinced that symbolic approaches would eventually succeed in creating a machine with artificial general intelligence and considered this the goal of their field.^[31] Herbert Simon predicted, "machines will be capable, within twenty years, of doing any work a man can do".^[32] Marvin Minsky agreed, writing, "within a generation ... the problem of creating 'artificial intelligence' will substantially be solved".^[33]

They failed to recognize the difficulty of some of the remaining tasks. Progress slowed and in 1974, in response to the criticism of Sir James Lighthill^[34] and ongoing pressure from the US Congress to fund more productive projects, both the U.S. and British governments cut off exploratory research in AI.^[8] The next few years would later be called an "AI winter", a period when obtaining funding for AI projects was difficult.

In the early 1980s, AI research was revived by the commercial success of expert systems,^[35] a form of AI program that simulated the knowledge and analytical skills of human experts. By 1985, the market for AI had reached over a billion dollars. At the same time, Japan's fifth generation computer project inspired the U.S and British governments to restore funding for academic research.^[j][7] However, beginning with the collapse of the Lisp Machine market in 1987, AI once again fell into disrepute, and a second, longer-lasting winter began.^[9]

Early Subsymbolic

Many researchers began to doubt that the symbolic approach would be able to imitate all the processes of human cognition, especially perception, robotics, learning and pattern recognition. A number of researchers began to look into "sub-symbolic" approaches to specific AI problems.^[36] Robotics researchers, such as Rodney Brooks, rejected symbolic AI and focused on the basic engineering problems that would allow robots to move, survive, and learn their environment.^[37][k] Interest in neural networks and "connectionism" was revived by Geoffrey Hinton, David Rumelhart and others in the middle of the 1980s.^[40] Soft computing finds solutions to problems that cannot be solved with complete logical certainty, and where an approximate solution is often sufficient. Soft computing approaches to AI include neural networks, fuzzy systems, Grey system theory, evolutionary computation and many tools drawn from statistics or mathematical optimization. Modern statistical AI (below) is a form soft computing, primarily using neural networks.

Statistical AI

AI gradually restored its reputation in the late 1990s and early 21st century by finding specific solutions to specific problems. The narrow focus allowed researchers to produce verifiable results, exploit more mathematical methods, and collaborate with other fields (such as statistics, economics and mathematics).^[l][42] By 2000, solutions developed by Ai researchers were being widely used, although in the 90s they were rarely described as "artificial intelligence".^[11]

Faster computers, algorithmic improvements, and access to large amounts of data enabled advances in machine learning and perception; data-hungry deep learning methods started to dominate accuracy benchmarks around 2012.^[43] According to Bloomberg's Jack Clark, 2015 was a landmark year for artificial intelligence, with the number of software projects that use AI within Google increased from a "sporadic usage" in 2012 to more than 2,700 projects. Clark also presents factual data indicating the improvements of AI since 2012 supported by lower error rates in image processing tasks.^[m] He attributes this to an increase in affordable neural networks, due to a rise in cloud computing infrastructure and to an increase in research tools and datasets.^[10] In a 2017 survey, one in five companies reported they had "incorporated AI in some offerings or processes".^[44]

Artificial general intelligence research

Bernard Goetz and others became concerned that AI was no longer pursuing the original goal of creating versatile, fully intelligent machines. Statistical AI is overwhelmingly used to solve specific problems, even highly successful techniques such as deep learning. They founded the subfield artificial general intelligence (or "AGI"), which had several well-funded institutions by the 2010s.^[12]

Goals

The general problem of simulating (or creating) intelligence has been broken down into sub-problems. These consist of particular traits or capabilities that researchers expect an intelligent system to display. The traits described below have received the most attention.^[d]

Reasoning, problem solving

Early researchers developed algorithms that imitated step-by-step reasoning that humans use when they solve puzzles or make logical deductions.^[45] By the late 1980s and 1990s, AI research had developed methods for dealing with uncertain or incomplete information, employing concepts from probability and economics.^[46]

These algorithms proved to be insufficient for solving large reasoning problems because they experienced a "combinatorial explosion": they became exponentially slower as the problems grew larger.^[47] Even humans rarely use the step-by-step deduction that early AI research could model. They solve most of their problems using fast, intuitive judgments.^[48]

Knowledge representation

An ontology represents knowledge as a set of concepts within a domain and the relationships between those concepts.

Knowledge representation^[49] and knowledge engineering^[50] are central to classical AI research. Some "expert systems" attempt to gather explicit knowledge possessed by experts in some narrow domain. In addition, some projects attempt to gather the "commonsense knowledge" known to the average person into a database containing extensive knowledge about the world.

Among the things a comprehensive commonsense knowledge base would contain are: objects, properties, categories and relations between objects;^[51] situations, events, states and time;^[52] causes and effects;^[53] knowledge about knowledge (what we know about what other people know);^[54] and many other, less well researched domains.

A representation of "what exists" is an ontology: the set of objects, relations, concepts, and properties formally described so that software agents can interpret them. The semantics of these are captured as description logic concepts, roles, and individuals, and typically implemented as classes, properties, and individuals in the Web Ontology Language.^[55] The most general ontologies are called upper ontologies, which attempt to provide a foundation for all other knowledge^[56] by acting as mediators between domain ontologies that cover specific knowledge about a particular knowledge domain (field of interest or area of concern). Such formal knowledge representations can be used in content-based indexing and retrieval,^[57] scene interpretation,^[58] clinical decision support,^[59] knowledge discovery (mining "interesting" and actionable inferences from large databases),^[60] and other areas.^[61]

Among the most difficult problems in knowledge representation are:

Default reasoning and the qualification problem

Many of the things people know take the form of "working assumptions". For example, if a bird comes up in conversation, people typically picture a fist-sized animal that sings and flies. None of these things are true about all birds. John McCarthy identified this problem in 1969^[62] as the qualification problem: for any commonsense rule that AI researchers care to represent, there tend to be a huge number of exceptions. Almost nothing is simply true or false in the way that abstract logic requires. AI research has explored a number of solutions to this problem.^[63]

Breadth of commonsense knowledge

The number of atomic facts that the average person knows is very large. Research projects that attempt to build a complete knowledge base of commonsense knowledge (e.g., Cyc) require enormous amounts of laborious ontological engineering—they must be built, by hand, one complicated concept at a time.^[64]

Subsymbolic form of some commonsense knowledge

Much of what people know is not represented as "facts" or "statements" that they could express verbally. For example, a chess master will avoid a particular chess position because it "feels too exposed"^[65] or an art critic can take one look at a statue and realize that it is a fake.^[66] These are non-conscious and sub-symbolic intuitions or tendencies in the human brain.^[67] Knowledge like this informs, supports and provides a context for symbolic, conscious knowledge.

Planning

A hierarchical control system is a form of control system in which a set of devices and governing software is arranged in a hierarchy.

Intelligent agents must be able to set goals and achieve them.^[68] They need a way to visualize the future—a representation of the state of the world and be able to make predictions about how their actions will change it—and be able to make choices that maximize the utility (or "value") of available choices.^[69]

In classical planning problems, the agent can assume that it is the only system acting in the world, allowing the agent to be certain of the consequences of its actions.^[70] However, if the agent is not the only actor, then it requires that the agent can reason under uncertainty. This calls for an agent that can not only assess its environment and make predictions but also evaluate its predictions and adapt based on its assessment.^[71]

Multi-agent planning uses the cooperation and competition of many agents to achieve a given goal. Emergent behavior such as this is used by evolutionary algorithms and swarm intelligence.^[72]

Learning

For this project the AI had to find the typical patterns in the colors and brushstrokes of Renaissance painter Raphael. The portrait shows the face of the actress Ornella Muti, "painted" by AI in the style of Raphael.

Machine learning (ML), a fundamental concept of AI research since the field's inception,^[n] is the study of computer algorithms that improve automatically through experience.^[o][75]

Unsupervised learning is the ability to find patterns in a stream of input, without requiring a human to label the inputs first. Supervised learning includes both classification and numerical regression, which requires a human to label the input data first. Classification is used to determine what category something belongs in, and occurs after a program sees a number of examples of things from several categories. Regression is the attempt to produce a function that describes the relationship between inputs and outputs and predicts how the outputs should change as the inputs change.^[75] Both classifiers and regression learners can be viewed as "function approximators" trying to learn an unknown (possibly implicit) function; for example, a spam classifier can be viewed as learning a function that maps from the text of an email to one of two categories, "spam" or "not spam". Computational learning theory can assess learners by computational complexity, by sample complexity (how much data is required), or by other notions of optimization.^[76] In reinforcement learning^[77] the agent is rewarded for good responses and punished for bad ones. The agent uses this sequence of rewards and punishments to form a strategy for operating in its problem space.

Natural language processing

A parse tree represents the syntactic structure of a sentence according to some formal grammar.

Natural language processing^[78] (NLP) allows machines to read and understand human language. A sufficiently powerful natural language processing system would enable natural-language user interfaces and the acquisition of knowledge directly from human-written sources, such as newswire texts. Some straightforward applications of natural language processing include information retrieval, text mining, question answering and machine translation.^[79] Many current approaches use word co-occurrence frequencies to construct syntactic representations of text. "Keyword spotting" strategies for search are popular and scalable but dumb; a search query for "dog" might only match documents with the literal word "dog" and miss a document with the word "poodle". "Lexical affinity" strategies use the occurrence of words such as "accident" to assess the sentiment of a document. Modern statistical NLP approaches can combine all these strategies as well as others, and often achieve acceptable accuracy at the page or paragraph level. Beyond semantic NLP, the ultimate goal of "narrative" NLP is to embody a full understanding of commonsense reasoning.^[80] By 2019, transformer-based deep learning architectures could generate coherent text.^[81]

Perception

Feature detection (pictured: edge detection) helps AI compose informative abstract structures out of raw data.

Machine perception^[82] is the ability to use input from sensors (such as cameras (visible spectrum or infrared), microphones, wireless signals, and active lidar, sonar, radar, and tactile sensors) to deduce aspects of the world. Applications include speech recognition,^[83] facial recognition, and object recognition.^[84] Computer vision is the ability to analyze visual input. Such input is usually ambiguous; a giant, fifty-meter-tall pedestrian far away may produce the same pixels as a nearby normal-sized pedestrian, requiring the AI to judge the relative likelihood and reasonableness of different interpretations, for example by using its "object model" to assess that fifty-meter pedestrians do not exist.^[85]

Motion and manipulation

AI is heavily used in robotics.^[86] Advanced robotic arms and other industrial robots, widely used in modern factories, can learn from experience how to move efficiently despite the presence of friction and gear slippage.^[87] A modern mobile robot, when given a small, static, and visible environment, can easily determine its location and map its environment; however, dynamic environments, such as (in endoscopy) the interior of a patient's breathing body, pose a greater challenge. Motion planning is the process of breaking down a movement task into "primitives" such as individual joint movements. Such movement often involves compliant motion, a process where movement requires maintaining physical contact with an object.^[88][89][90] Moravec's paradox generalizes that low-level sensorimotor skills that humans take for granted are, counterintuitively, difficult to program into a robot; the paradox is named after Hans Moravec, who stated in 1988 that "it is comparatively easy to make computers exhibit adult level performance on intelligence tests or playing checkers, and difficult or impossible to give them the skills of a one-year-old when it comes to perception and mobility".^[91][92] This is attributed to the fact that, unlike checkers, physical dexterity has been a direct target of natural selection for millions of years.^[93]

Social intelligence

Kismet, a robot with rudimentary social skills^[94]

Affective computing is an interdisciplinary umbrella that comprises systems which recognize, interpret, process, or simulate human affects.^[95][96][97] For example, some virtual assistants are programmed to speak conversationally or even to banter humorously; it makes them appear more sensitive to the emotional dynamics of human interaction, or to otherwise facilitate human–computer interaction.^[98] However, this tends to give naïve users an unrealistic conception of how intelligent existing computer agents actually are.^[99] Moderate successes related to affective computing include textual sentiment analysis and, more recently, multimodal affect analysis (see multimodal sentiment analysis), wherein AI classifies the affects displayed by a videotaped subject.^[100]

General intelligence

General intelligence is the ability to take on any arbitrary problem. Current AI research has, for the most part, only produced programs that can solve exactly one problem. Many researchers predict that such "narrow AI" work in different individual domains will eventually be incorporated into a machine with general intelligence, combining most of the narrow skills mentioned in this article and at some point even exceeding human ability in most or all these areas. The sub-field of artificial general intelligence (or "AGI") studies general intelligence exclusively.^[12]

Tools

Applications

AI is relevant to any intellectual task.^[101] Modern artificial intelligence techniques are pervasive^[102] and are too numerous to list here. Frequently, when a technique reaches mainstream use, it is no longer considered artificial intelligence; this phenomenon is described as the AI effect.^[103]

High-profile examples of AI include autonomous vehicles (such as drones and self-driving cars), medical diagnosis, creating art (such as poetry), proving mathematical theorems, playing games (such as Chess or Go), search engines (such as Google Search), online assistants (such as Siri), image recognition in photographs, spam filtering, predicting flight delays,^[104] prediction of judicial decisions,^[105] targeting online advertisements, ^{[101][106][107]} and energy storage^[108]

With social media sites overtaking TV as a source for news for young people and news organizations increasingly reliant on social media platforms for generating distribution,^[109] major publishers now use artificial intelligence (AI) technology to post stories more effectively and generate higher volumes of traffic.^[110]

AI can also produce Deepfakes, a content-altering technology. ZDNet reports, "It presents something that did not actually occur," Though 88% of Americans believe Deepfakes can cause more harm than good, only 47% of them believe they can be targeted. The boom of election year also opens public discourse to threats of videos of falsified politician media.^[111]

Philosophy

Defining artificial intelligence

Alan Turing, in a seminal 1950 paper "Computing Machinery and Intelligence", argued that the only thing that matters is the external behavior of the machine (illustrated by the famous Turing test), and showed that all the common objections to the idea that "machines can think" disappear when we look at the problem from this point of view.^[112] Turing proposed changing the question from whether a machine was intelligent, to "whether or not it is possible for machinery to show intelligent behaviour".^[113] Since we can only see the behavior, it does not matter if the machine is conscious, or has a mind, or whether the intelligence is merely a "simulation" and not "the real thing". He noted that we also don't know these things about other people, but that we extend a "polite convention" that they are actually "thinking".

In the proposal for the Dartmouth Workshop of 1956, John McCarthy wrote "Every aspect of learning or any other feature of intelligence can be so precisely described that a machine can be made to simulate it."^[114] By using the word "simulation", McCarthy defined AI in a way that avoids all discussion of whether their programs could also have subjective conscious experience as humans do.

Newell and Simon proposed the physical symbol systems hypothesis: "A physical symbol system has the necessary and sufficient means of general intelligent action."^[115] However, in the 1990s it became obvious "symbol manipulation" would not be sufficient to simulate human intelligence; programs that produced precise symbolic solutions could not solve simple common sense problems without using billions of years of computer time (a limit known as "Intractability")^[116] Philosopher Hubert Dreyfus had argued since the 1960s that human expertise depends on unconscious instinct rather than conscious symbol manipulation, and on having a "feel" for the situation, rather than explicit symbolic knowledge.^[117] Although his arguments had been ridiculed and ignored when they were first presented, eventually AI research came to agree.^[p] and modern statistical AI simulates our ability to "guess" based on our "experience", rather than on precise descriptions and symbols.

The questions that have divided AI research historically have remained unanswered and may have to be revisited by future research.^[120][121] A few of the most long-standing questions that have remained unanswered are these:

• Should artificial intelligence simulate natural intelligence by studying psychology or neurobiology? Or is human biology as irrelevant to AI research as bird biology is to aeronautical engineering?^[c]
• Can intelligent behavior be described using simple, elegant principles (such as logic or optimization)? Or does it necessarily require solving a large number of unrelated problems?^[124]
• Can we write programs that find provably correct solutions to a given problem (e.g., using symbolic logic and knowledge)? Or do we use algorithms that can only give us a "reasonable" solution (e.g., probabilistic methods) but may fall prey to the same kind of inscrutable mistakes that human intuition makes?^[120]
• Should AI pursue the goals of artificial general intelligence and superintelligence directly? Or is it better off solving as many specific problems as it can and hoping these solutions will lead indirectly to the field's long term goals?^[12]

Machine consciousness, sentience and mind

Can have a machine have a mind, consciousness and mental states in the same sense that human beings do? This question considers the internal experiences of the machine, rather than its external behavior.

Mainstream AI research considers this question irrelevant, because it does not effect the goals of the field. Stuart Russell and Peter Norvig observe that most AI researchers "don't care about the strong AI hypothesis—as long as the program works, they don't care whether you call it a simulation of intelligence or real intelligence."^[125] However, the question has become central to the Philosophy of Mind. It is also the central question at issue in artificial intelligence in fiction.

Consciousness

David Chalmers identified two problems in understanding the mind, which he named the "hard" and "easy" problems of consciousness.^[126] The easy problem is understanding how the brain processes signals, makes plans and controls behavior. The hard problem is explaining how this feels or why it should feel like anything at all. Human information processing is easy to explain, however human subjective experience is difficult to explain. For example, it is easy imagine a color blind person who has learned to identify which objects in their field of view are red, but it is not clear what would be required for the person to know what red looks like.

Computationalism and functionalism

Computationalism is the position in the philosophy of mind that the human mind is an information processing system and that thinking is a form of computing.^[127] Computationalism argues that the relationship between mind and body is similar or identical to the relationship between software and hardware and thus may be a solution to the mind-body problem. This philosophical position was inspired by the work of AI researchers and cognitive scientists in the 1960s and was originally proposed by philosophers Jerry Fodor and Hilary Putnam.

Strong AI hypothesis

The philosophical position that John Searle has named "strong AI" states: "The appropriately programmed computer with the right inputs and outputs would thereby have a mind in exactly the same sense human beings have minds."^[q] Searle counters this assertion with his Chinese room argument, which attempts to show that, even if a machine perfectly simulates human behavior, there is still no reason to suppose it also has a mind.^[129]

Robot rights

If a machine has a mind and subjective experience, then it may also have sentience (the ability to feel), and if so, then it could also suffer, and thus it would be entitled to certain rights. This issue, now known as "robot rights", is currently being considered by, for example, California's Institute for the Future, although many critics believe that the discussion is premature.^[130][131] Some critics of transhumanism argue that any hypothetical robot rights would lie on a spectrum with animal rights and human rights.^[132] The subject is profoundly discussed in the 2010 documentary film Plug & Pray,^[133] and many sci fi media such as Star Trek Next Generation, with the character of Commander Data, who fought being disassembled for research, and wanted to "become human", and the robotic holograms in Voyager.

Future of AI

Superintelligence

A superintelligence, hyperintelligence, or superhuman intelligence is a hypothetical agent that would possess intelligence far surpassing that of the brightest and most gifted human mind. Superintelligence may also refer to the form or degree of intelligence possessed by such an agent.^[134]

Technological singularity

If research into artificial general intelligence produced sufficiently intelligent software, it might be able to reprogram and improve itself. The improved software would be even better at improving itself, leading to recursive self-improvement.^[135] The new intelligence could thus increase exponentially and dramatically surpass humans. Science fiction writer Vernor Vinge named this scenario "singularity". Technological singularity is when accelerating progress in technologies will cause a runaway effect wherein artificial intelligence will exceed human intellectual capacity and control, thus radically changing or even ending civilization. Because the capabilities of such an intelligence may be impossible to comprehend, the technological singularity is an occurrence beyond which events are unpredictable or even unfathomable.^[136]

Ray Kurzweil has used Moore's law (which describes the relentless exponential improvement in digital technology) to calculate that desktop computers will have the same processing power as human brains by the year 2029 and predicts that the singularity will occur in 2045.^[137]

Transhumanism

Robot designer Hans Moravec, cyberneticist Kevin Warwick, and inventor Ray Kurzweil have predicted that humans and machines will merge in the future into cyborgs that are more capable and powerful than either.^[138] This idea, called transhumanism, has roots in Aldous Huxley and Robert Ettinger.

Edward Fredkin argues that "artificial intelligence is the next stage in evolution", an idea first proposed by Samuel Butler's "Darwin among the Machines" as far back as 1863, and expanded upon by George Dyson in his book of the same name in 1998.^[139]

Risks of AI

Widespread use of artificial intelligence could have unintended consequences that are dangerous or undesirable. Scientists from the Future of Life Institute, among others, described some short-term research goals to see how AI influences the economy, the laws and ethics that are involved with AI and how to minimize AI security risks. In the long-term, the scientists have proposed to continue optimizing function while minimizing possible security risks that come along with new technologies.^[140]

Technological unemployment

The long-term economic effects of AI are uncertain. A survey of economists showed disagreement about whether the increasing use of robots and AI will cause a substantial increase in long-term unemployment, but they generally agree that it could be a net benefit, if productivity gains are redistributed.^[141] A 2017 study by PricewaterhouseCoopers sees the People's Republic of China gaining economically the most out of AI with 26.1% of GDP until 2030.^[142] A February 2020 European Union white paper on artificial intelligence advocated for artificial intelligence for economic benefits, including "improving healthcare (e.g. making diagnosis more precise, enabling better prevention of diseases), increasing the efficiency of farming, contributing to climate change mitigation and adaptation, [and] improving the efficiency of production systems through predictive maintenance", while acknowledging potential risks.^[102]

The relationship between automation and employment is complicated. While automation eliminates old jobs, it also creates new jobs through micro-economic and macro-economic effects.^[143] Unlike previous waves of automation, many middle-class jobs may be eliminated by artificial intelligence; The Economist states that "the worry that AI could do to white-collar jobs what steam power did to blue-collar ones during the Industrial Revolution" is "worth taking seriously".^[144] Subjective estimates of the risk vary widely; for example, Michael Osborne and Carl Benedikt Frey estimate 47% of U.S. jobs are at "high risk" of potential automation, while an OECD report classifies only 9% of U.S. jobs as "high risk".^{[145][146][147]} Jobs at extreme risk range from paralegals to fast food cooks, while job demand is likely to increase for care-related professions ranging from personal healthcare to the clergy.^[148] Author Martin Ford and others go further and argue that many jobs are routine, repetitive and (to an AI) predictable; Ford warns that these jobs may be automated in the next couple of decades, and that many of the new jobs may not be "accessible to people with average capability", even with retraining. Economists point out that in the past technology has tended to increase rather than reduce total employment, but acknowledge that "we're in uncharted territory" with AI.^[149]

Use by terrorists and other bad actors

The potential negative effects of AI and automation were a major issue for Andrew Yang's 2020 presidential campaign in the United States.^[150] Irakli Beridze, Head of the Centre for Artificial Intelligence and Robotics at UNICRI, United Nations, has expressed that "I think the dangerous applications for AI, from my point of view, would be criminals or large terrorist organizations using it to disrupt large processes or simply do pure harm. [Terrorists could cause harm] via digital warfare, or it could be a combination of robotics, drones, with AI and other things as well that could be really dangerous. And, of course, other risks come from things like job losses. If we have massive numbers of people losing jobs and don't find a solution, it will be extremely dangerous. Things like lethal autonomous weapons systems should be properly governed—otherwise there's massive potential of misuse."^[151]

Algorithmic bias

Some are concerned about algorithmic bias, that AI programs may unintentionally become biased after processing data that exhibits bias.^[152] Algorithms already have numerous applications in legal systems. An example of this is COMPAS, a commercial program widely used by U.S. courts to assess the likelihood of a defendant becoming a recidivist. ProPublica claims that the COMPAS-assigned recidivism risk level of black defendants is far more likely to be an overestimate than that of white defendants.^[153]

Existential risk

Physicist Stephen Hawking, Microsoft founder Bill Gates, history professor Yuval Noah Harari, and SpaceX founder Elon Musk have expressed concerns about the possibility that AI could evolve to the point that humans could not control it, with Hawking theorizing that this could "spell the end of the human race".^{[154][155][156][157]}

The development of full artificial intelligence could spell the end of the human race. Once humans develop artificial intelligence, it will take off on its own and redesign itself at an ever-increasing rate. Humans, who are limited by slow biological evolution, couldn't compete and would be superseded.

— Stephen Hawking^[158]

In his book Superintelligence, philosopher Nick Bostrom provides an argument that artificial intelligence will pose a threat to humankind. He argues that sufficiently intelligent AI, if it chooses actions based on achieving some goal, will exhibit convergent behavior such as acquiring resources or protecting itself from being shut down. If this AI's goals do not fully reflect humanity's—one example is an AI told to compute as many digits of pi as possible—it might harm humanity in order to acquire more resources or prevent itself from being shut down, ultimately to better achieve its goal. Bostrom also emphasizes the difficulty of fully conveying humanity's values to an advanced AI. He uses the hypothetical example of giving an AI the goal to make humans smile to illustrate a misguided attempt. If the AI in that scenario were to become superintelligent, Bostrom argues, it may resort to methods that most humans would find horrifying, such as inserting "electrodes into the facial muscles of humans to cause constant, beaming grins" because that would be an efficient way to achieve its goal of making humans smile.^[159] In his book Human Compatible, AI researcher Stuart J. Russell echoes some of Bostrom's concerns while also proposing an approach to developing provably beneficial machines focused on uncertainty and deference to humans,^[160]:173 possibly involving inverse reinforcement learning.^{[160]:191–193}

Concern over risk from artificial intelligence has led to some high-profile donations and investments. A group of prominent tech titans including Peter Thiel, Amazon Web Services and Musk have committed $1 billion to OpenAI, a nonprofit company aimed at championing responsible AI development.^[161] The opinion of experts within the field of artificial intelligence is mixed, with sizable fractions both concerned and unconcerned by risk from eventual superhumanly-capable AI.^[162] Other technology industry leaders believe that artificial intelligence is helpful in its current form and will continue to assist humans. Oracle CEO Mark Hurd has stated that AI "will actually create more jobs, not less jobs" as humans will be needed to manage AI systems.^[163] Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg believes AI will "unlock a huge amount of positive things," such as curing disease and increasing the safety of autonomous cars.^[164] In January 2015, Musk donated $10 million to the Future of Life Institute to fund research on understanding AI decision making. The goal of the institute is to "grow wisdom with which we manage" the growing power of technology. Musk also funds companies developing artificial intelligence such as DeepMind and Vicarious to "just keep an eye on what's going on with artificial intelligence.^[165] I think there is potentially a dangerous outcome there."^[166][167]

For the danger of uncontrolled advanced AI to be realized, the hypothetical AI would have to overpower or out-think all of humanity, which a minority of experts argue is a possibility far enough in the future to not be worth researching.^[168][169] Other counterarguments revolve around humans being either intrinsically or convergently valuable from the perspective of an artificial intelligence.^[170]

Ethical machines

Machines with intelligence have the potential to use their intelligence to prevent harm and minimize the risks; they may have the ability to use ethical reasoning to better choose their actions in the world. As such, there is a need for policy making to devise policies for and regulate artificial intelligence and robotics.^[171] Research in this area includes machine ethics, artificial moral agents, friendly AI and discussion towards building a human rights framework is also in talks.^[172]

Joseph Weizenbaum in Computer Power and Human Reason wrote that AI applications cannot, by definition, successfully simulate genuine human empathy and that the use of AI technology in fields such as customer service or psychotherapy^[r] was deeply misguided. Weizenbaum was also bothered that AI researchers (and some philosophers) were willing to view the human mind as nothing more than a computer program (a position now known as computationalism). To Weizenbaum, these points suggest that AI research devalues human life.^[174]

Artificial moral agents

Wendell Wallach introduced the concept of artificial moral agents (AMA) in his book Moral Machines^[175] For Wallach, AMAs have become a part of the research landscape of artificial intelligence as guided by its two central questions which he identifies as "Does Humanity Want Computers Making Moral Decisions"^[176] and "Can (Ro)bots Really Be Moral".^[177] For Wallach, the question is not centered on the issue of whether machines can demonstrate the equivalent of moral behavior, unlike the constraints which society may place on the development of AMAs.^[178]

Machine ethics

The field of machine ethics is concerned with giving machines ethical principles, or a procedure for discovering a way to resolve the ethical dilemmas they might encounter, enabling them to function in an ethically responsible manner through their own ethical decision making.^[179] The field was delineated in the AAAI Fall 2005 Symposium on Machine Ethics: "Past research concerning the relationship between technology and ethics has largely focused on responsible and irresponsible use of technology by human beings, with a few people being interested in how human beings ought to treat machines. In all cases, only human beings have engaged in ethical reasoning. The time has come for adding an ethical dimension to at least some machines. Recognition of the ethical ramifications of behavior involving machines, as well as recent and potential developments in machine autonomy, necessitate this. In contrast to computer hacking, software property issues, privacy issues and other topics normally ascribed to computer ethics, machine ethics is concerned with the behavior of machines towards human users and other machines. Research in machine ethics is key to alleviating concerns with autonomous systems—it could be argued that the notion of autonomous machines without such a dimension is at the root of all fear concerning machine intelligence. Further, investigation of machine ethics could enable the discovery of problems with current ethical theories, advancing our thinking about Ethics."^[180] Machine ethics is sometimes referred to as machine morality, computational ethics or computational morality. A variety of perspectives of this nascent field can be found in the collected edition "Machine Ethics"^[179] that stems from the AAAI Fall 2005 Symposium on Machine Ethics.^[180]

Malevolent and friendly AI

Political scientist Charles T. Rubin believes that AI can be neither designed nor guaranteed to be benevolent.^[181] He argues that "any sufficiently advanced benevolence may be indistinguishable from malevolence." Humans should not assume machines or robots would treat us favorably because there is no a priori reason to believe that they would be sympathetic to our system of morality, which has evolved along with our particular biology (which AIs would not share). Hyper-intelligent software may not necessarily decide to support the continued existence of humanity and would be extremely difficult to stop. This topic has also recently begun to be discussed in academic publications as a real source of risks to civilization, humans, and planet Earth.

One proposal to deal with this is to ensure that the first generally intelligent AI is 'Friendly AI' and will be able to control subsequently developed AIs. Some question whether this kind of check could actually remain in place.

Leading AI researcher Rodney Brooks writes, "I think it is a mistake to be worrying about us developing malevolent AI anytime in the next few hundred years. I think the worry stems from a fundamental error in not distinguishing the difference between the very real recent advances in a particular aspect of AI and the enormity and complexity of building sentient volitional intelligence."^[182]

Lethal autonomous weapons are of concern. In 2015, over fifty countries are researching battlefield robots, including the United States, China, Russia, and the United Kingdom. Many people concerned about risk from superintelligent AI also want to limit the use of artificial soldiers and drones.^[183]

Regulation

The regulation of artificial intelligence is the development of public sector policies and laws for promoting and regulating artificial intelligence (AI);^[184][185] it is therefore related to the broader regulation of algorithms. The regulatory and policy landscape for AI is an emerging issue in jurisdictions globally, including in the European Union.^[186] Regulation is considered necessary to both encourage AI and manage associated risks.^[187][188] Regulation of AI through mechanisms such as review boards can also be seen as social means to approach the AI control problem.^[189]

Given the concerns about data exploitation, the European Union also developed an artificial intelligence policy, with a working group studying ways to assure confidence in the use of artificial intelligence. These were issued in two white papers in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. One of the policies on artificial intelligence is called A European Approach to Excellence and Trust.^{[190][191][192]}

In fiction

The word "robot" itself was coined by Karel Čapek in his 1921 play R.U.R., the title standing for "Rossum's Universal Robots"

Thought-capable artificial beings appeared as storytelling devices since antiquity,^[16] and have been a persistent theme in science fiction.

A common trope in these works began with Mary Shelley's Frankenstein, where a human creation becomes a threat to its masters. This includes such works as Arthur C. Clarke's and Stanley Kubrick's 2001: A Space Odyssey (both 1968), with HAL 9000, the murderous computer in charge of the Discovery One spaceship, as well as The Terminator (1984) and The Matrix (1999). In contrast, the rare loyal robots such as Gort from The Day the Earth Stood Still (1951) and Bishop from Aliens (1986) are less prominent in popular culture.^[193]

Isaac Asimov introduced the Three Laws of Robotics in many books and stories, most notably the "Multivac" series about a super-intelligent computer of the same name. Asimov's laws are often brought up during lay discussions of machine ethics;^[194] while almost all artificial intelligence researchers are familiar with Asimov's laws through popular culture, they generally consider the laws useless for many reasons, one of which is their ambiguity.^[195]

Transhumanism (the merging of humans and machines) is explored in the manga Ghost in the Shell and the science-fiction series Dune. In the 1980s, artist Hajime Sorayama's Sexy Robots series were painted and published in Japan depicting the actual organic human form with lifelike muscular metallic skins and later "the Gynoids" book followed that was used by or influenced movie makers including George Lucas and other creatives. Sorayama never considered these organic robots to be real part of nature but always an unnatural product of the human mind, a fantasy existing in the mind even when realized in actual form.

Several works use AI to force us to confront the fundamental question of what makes us human, showing us artificial beings that have the ability to feel, and thus to suffer. This appears in Karel Čapek's R.U.R., the films A.I. Artificial Intelligence and Ex Machina, as well as the novel Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?, by Philip K. Dick. Dick considers the idea that our understanding of human subjectivity is altered by technology created with artificial intelligence.^[196]

See also

Explanatory notes

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AI textbooks

History of AI

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Further reading

External links

• "Artificial Intelligence". Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy.
• Thomason, Richmond. "Logic and Artificial Intelligence". In Zalta, Edward N. (ed.). Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy.
• Artificial Intelligence, BBC Radio 4 discussion with John Agar, Alison Adam & Igor Aleksander (In Our Time, Dec. 8, 2005)