Global Burden of Disease Study
The Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) is a comprehensive regional and global research program of disease burden that assesses mortality and disability from major diseases, injuries, and risk factors. GBD is a collaboration of over 3600 researchers from 145 countries.[1] Under principal investigator Christopher J.L. Murray, GBD is based out of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington and funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.[2]
History[]
The Global Burden of Disease Study began in 1990 as a single World Bank-commissioned[3] study, now called GBD project quantified the health effects of more than 100 diseases and injuries for eight regions of the world, giving estimates of morbidity and mortality by age, sex, and region. It also introduced the disability-adjusted life year (DALY) as a new metric to quantify the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors,[4][5][6] to aid comparisons. GBD 1990 was "institutionalized" at the World Health Organization (WHO) and the research was "conducted mainly by researchers at Harvard and WHO".[3]
In 2000–2002, the 1990 study was updated by WHO to include a more extensive analysis using a framework known as comparative risk factor assessment.[5]
The WHO estimates were again updated for 2004 in The global burden of disease: 2004 update (published in 2008)[7] and in Global health risks (published in 2009).[5][8]
Official DALY estimates had not been updated by WHO since 2004[9] until the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010), also known as the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010,[10] was published in December 2012.[11][12] The work quantified the burdens of 291 major causes of death and disability and 67 risk factors disaggregated by 21 geographic regions and various age–sex groups.[13][14] GBD 2010 had the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation as its coordinating center, but was a collaboration between several institutions including WHO and the Harvard School of Public Health.[13] The work was funded by the Gates Foundation.[3] The GBD 2010 estimates contributed to WHO's own estimates published in 2013,[5] although WHO did not acknowledge the GBD 2010 estimates.[15][16]
The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) was published in 2014.[17] The first installment, "Smoking Prevalence and Cigarette Consumption in 187 Countries, 1980–2012", was published in the Journal of the American Medical Association in January, and further installments were published throughout the year.[11] IHME continued to act as the coordinating center for the work.[18]
The Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (GBD 2017) was published in October 2018.[19] The work was still coordinated at IHME. The life of Christopher Murray and the Global Burden of Disease Study is told in "Epic Measures: One Doctor. Seven Billion Patients" by Jeremey N. Smith.[20]
Growth[]
The following table summarizes GBD's growth over the years.
Report | Collaborators | Coverage in report | Sources | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GBD | Publication year | Researchers | Countries | Countries | Causes of death | |
1990 | 1993 | [21] | ||||
2010 | 2012 | 488 | 50 | 187 | 235 | [11][17][22] |
2013 | 2014 | more than 1,000 | 106 | 188 | 240 | [17] |
2015 | 2016 | 1,870 | 127 | 195 | 249 | [23][24][25] |
2017 | 2018 | [19] |
Aims[]
The GBD has three specific aims:
- To systematically incorporate information on non-fatal outcomes into the assessment of the health status (using a time-based measure of healthy years of life lost due either to premature mortality or to years lived with a disability, weighted by the severity of that disability)
- To ensure that all estimates and projections were derived on the basis of objective epidemiological and demographic methods, which were not influenced by advocates.
- To measure the burden of disease using a metric that could also be used to assess the cost-effectiveness of interventions. The metric chosen was the DALY.[citation needed]
The burden of disease can be viewed as the gap between current health status and an ideal situation in which everyone lives into old age free of disease and disability. Causes of the gap are premature mortality, disability and exposure to certain risk factors that contribute to illness.
Results[]
The 2013 report showed that global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years in 1990, to 71.5 years in 2013,[17] while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million to 54.9 million over the same interval.[17] Progress varied widely across demographic and national groups. Reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections and neonatal causes in low-income regions drove the changes. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa.[citation needed]
For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell, while for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates.[citation needed]
Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%.[17] For some causes of more than 100,000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes and malaria remain in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections.[17]
GBD 2015 found that for the first time, annual deaths from measles had fallen below 100,000 in 2013 and 2015.[26][27][28] It also found that the global annual rate of new HIV infections has largely stayed the same during the past 10 years.[29]
GBD 2015 also introduced the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) as a measure of a location's socio-demographic development that takes into account average income per person, educational attainment, and total fertility rate.[30][31][32]
Reception[]
The results of the Global Burden of Disease Study have been cited by The New York Times,[33] The Washington Post,[34] Vox,[35] and The Atlantic.[36][37]
The World Health Organization did not acknowledge the GBD 2010 estimates.[15][16]
Publications[]
The following is a table of GBD publications as of October 2020.[38][39][40][41][42][43]
"GBD 2010" proper means the paper was published as part of the original triple issue in The Lancet.
Title | Corresponding GBD | Publication date | Type | showVenue |
---|
See also[]
- Alan Lopez
- Dan Wikler
- Disease Control Priorities Project
- Dean Jamison
- Health policy
- Pharmacoeconomics
- Priority-setting in global health
References[]
- ^ http://www.healthdata.org/gbd/about
- ^ "What does a $100 million public health data revolution look like?". TEDMED.
- ^ Jump up to: a b c "Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation and World Health Organization sign new agreement". Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. May 2015. Retrieved January 29, 2017.
- ^ Prüss-Üstün, Annette; Mathers, C.; Corvalán, Carlos; Woodward, A. (2003). Assessing the environmental burden of disease at national and local levels: Introduction and methods. WHO Environmental Burden of Disease Series. 1. Geneva: World Health Organization. ISBN 978-9241546201.
- ^ Jump up to: a b c d "About the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) project". Health statistics and health information systems. World Health Organization.
- ^ "Global burden of disease". World Health Organization.
- ^ "The global burden of disease: 2004 update" (PDF). World Health Organization. 2008.
- ^ "Global health risks: mortality and burden of disease attributable to selected major risks" (PDF). World Health Organization. 2009.
- ^ Global Burden of Disease (GBD) at WHO, 2012
- ^ "Global Burden of Disease: Massive shifts reshape the health landscape worldwide". Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. 2014-05-08. Retrieved January 30, 2017.
That’s one of the main findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010), a collaborative project led by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington.
- ^ Jump up to: a b c "History". Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. 2014-05-10. Retrieved January 29, 2017.
- ^ Murray CJ, Vos T, Lozano R, Naghavi M, Flaxman AD, Michaud C, et al. (2013). "Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 291 diseases and injuries in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010". Lancet. 380 (9859): 2197–223. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(12)61689-4. PMID 23245608. S2CID 205967479.
- ^ Jump up to: a b Murray CJ, Ezzati M, Flaxman AD, Lim S, Lozano R, Michaud C, et al. (2013). "GBD 2010: design, definitions, and metrics". Lancet. 380 (9859): 2063–6. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(12)61899-6. PMID 23245602. S2CID 27164993.
- ^ Watts C, Cairncross S (2013). "Should the GBD risk factor rankings be used to guide policy?". Lancet. 380 (9859): 2060–1. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(12)62121-7. PMID 23245600. S2CID 40347192.
- ^ Jump up to: a b Rudan, Igor; Chan, Kit Yee (December 18, 2014). "Global health metrics needs collaboration and competition" (PDF). The Lancet. 385 (9963): 92–94. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(14)62006-7. PMID 25530441. S2CID 28100116. Retrieved January 27, 2017.
- ^ Jump up to: a b Doughton, Sandi (January 25, 2017). "Historic gift: Gates Foundation gives $279 million to University of Washington". The Seattle Times. Retrieved January 25, 2017.
Initially, though, IHME antagonized other health experts, who accused the Seattle institute of arrogance and failing to share data and methods. Its first global health report card was not acknowledged by the World Health Organization.
- ^ Jump up to: a b c d e f g GBD 2013 Mortality and Causes of Death Collaborators (2014). "Global, regional, and national age–sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013". The Lancet. 385 (9963): 117–171. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(14)61682-2. ISSN 0140-6736. PMC 4340604. PMID 25530442.
- ^ "GBD History". Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. 2014-04-18. Retrieved January 30, 2017.
- ^ Jump up to: a b "History". Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. 2014-05-09. Retrieved 2020-12-26.
- ^ "Epic Measures". jeremynsmith.com. Retrieved 2020-12-26.
- ^ Brown, David (March 5, 2013). "Web-based tool charts disease, risk factors around the world and through time". The Washington Post. Retrieved January 31, 2017.
- ^ Das, P (2012). "The story of GBD 2010: a "super human" effort". Lancet. 380 (9859): 2067–2070. doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(12)62174-6. PMID 23259158. S2CID 45801452.
- ^ "Increase in global life expectancy offset by war, obesity, and substance abuse". Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. 2016-10-03. Retrieved January 29, 2017.
- ^ GBD 2015 Mortality and Causes of Death Collaborators (2016-10-08). "Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015". The Lancet. 388 (10053): 1459–1544. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31012-1. ISSN 0140-6736. PMC 5388903. PMID 27733281. Retrieved 2017-01-29.CS1 maint: uses authors parameter (link)
- ^ "Global burden of disease study 2015 assesses the state of the world's health". ScienceDaily. October 6, 2016. Retrieved January 29, 2017.
- ^ Peter Hotez (November 17, 2016). "Vaccinations, Vaccine Science, and a New US President | Speaking of Medicine". PLOS. Retrieved January 31, 2017.
Those results include new findings just released by the Gates Foundation-supported Global Burden of Disease 2015 Mortality and Causes of Death Collaborators that found a 75 percent reduction in global measles mortality over the last decade such that (for the first time ever) fewer than 100,000 children died from measles in 2013 and 2015
- ^ "Table 3: Selected causes of global child deaths in 1990 and 2013". Retrieved January 31, 2017.
- ^ "Table 5: Global deaths in 2005 and 2015 for all ages and both sexes combined and age-standardised death rates, with percentage change between 2005 and 2015 for 249 causes". Retrieved January 31, 2017.
- ^ Nisha Gaind (July 25, 2016). "Global rate of new HIV infections hasn't fallen in a decade". Nature. doi:10.1038/nature.2016.20305. S2CID 78940073. Retrieved February 2, 2017.
- ^ "Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015) Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) 1980–2015". GHDx. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Retrieved February 7, 2017.
- ^ Myers, Joe (September 23, 2016). "There's a new ranking of the healthiest countries. How is yours doing?". World Economic Forum. Retrieved February 7, 2017.
- ^ Lancet, The (2016-10-08). "GBD 2015: from big data to meaningful change". The Lancet. 388 (10053): 1447. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31790-1. ISSN 0140-6736. PMID 27733277. S2CID 33167967. Retrieved 2017-02-07.
- ^ Edward Wong (August 17, 2016). "Coal Burning Causes the Most Air Pollution Deaths in China, Study Finds". The New York Times. Retrieved January 31, 2017.
- ^ "Roads Kill: The toll of traffic accidents is rising in poor countries". The Washington Post. January 13, 2014. Retrieved January 31, 2017.
- ^ Dylan Matthews (March 13, 2015). "The #1 reason people die early, in each country". Vox. Retrieved January 31, 2017.
- ^ Neal Emery (January 24, 2013). "How the World Gets Sick and Dies". The Atlantic. Retrieved January 31, 2017.
- ^ Olga Khazan (October 7, 2016). "How Back Pain Took Over the World". The Atlantic. Retrieved January 31, 2017.
- ^ "Global Burden of Disease (GBD 2019)". Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. 2014-03-17. Retrieved 2020-12-26.
- ^ "Research Articles - Project: Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD)". Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Retrieved February 2, 2017.
- ^ "Lancet Global Burden of Disease". The Lancet. Retrieved February 3, 2017.
- ^ "Lancet Global Burden of Disease Study 2013". The Lancet. Retrieved February 3, 2017.
- ^ "Lancet Global Burden of Disease Study 2010". The Lancet. Retrieved February 3, 2017.
- ^ Murray, Christopher J. L.; Lopez, Alan D. "Search Results for: The Global Burden of Disease and Injury". Harvard University Press. Retrieved February 3, 2017.
- ^ "WHO IRIS: Health dimensions of sex and reproduction : the global burden of sexually transmitted diseases, HIV, maternal conditions, perinatal disorders, and congenital anomalies / edited by Christopher J. L. Murray, Alan D. Lopez". World Health Organization. hdl:10665/42161. Cite journal requires
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(help) - ^ "WHO IRIS: Global health statistics : a compendium of incidence, prevalence and mortality estimates for over 200 conditions / Christopher J. L. Murray, Alan D. Lopez". World Health Organization. hdl:10665/41848. Cite journal requires
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(help) - ^ "WHO IRIS: The Global burden of disease : a comprehensive assessment of mortality and disability from diseases, injuries, and risk factors in 1990 and projected to 2020 : summary / edited by Christopher J. L. Murray, Alan D. Lopez". World Health Organization. hdl:10665/41864. Cite journal requires
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External links[]
- GBD project page on the IHME website
- Global Burden of Disease Study page on The Lancet website
- Global burden of disease at WHO website
- GBD Publications from Harvard School of Public Health
- Global Burden of Disease Mental Disorders and Illicit Drug Use Expert Group at National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre (University of New South Wales, Australia)
- International medical and health organizations
- Public health research