Great Recession in Africa
 | This article may not provide balanced geographical coverage on Africa. (December 2010) |  |
| Great Recession |
|---|
As a direct result of the late 2000s recession, some economies in Africa have been primarily affected by reduced global demand and lower prices of commodities such as oil, platinum, nickel, gold, and copper. South Africa was the first African country to fall in recession. Other countries like Morocco and Egypt, which benefited from their previous high economic growth experienced a great decline due to the global economic crisis without falling in recession.
South Africa[]
Moody's Investors Service warned on July 7, 2008 that South Africa could slip into a recession by the turn of the year. Moody's cited electricity shortages, high interest rates, soaring inflation, a slumping housing and vehicle market and lower business and consumer confidence indicators. Growth in South Africa's real gross domestic product for the first quarter of 2008 slowed to 0.39%. CPIX inflation, the monetary-policy inflation target measure, rose 10.9% on a year-on-year basis in May, its highest level since November 2002.[1] South Africa's National Treasury criticized the statement by Moody's saying, "It's not possible that we'll end up in recession." He added that the government may revise lower its 4 percent growth forecast for the year following growth of 5.1% in 2007. Car sales in South Africa dropped an annual 22 percent in June due to higher interest rates.[2]
Timeline of the Great Recession across all continents[]
The table below displays all national recessions appearing in 2006-2013 (for the 71 countries with available data), according to the common recession definition, saying that a recession occurred whenever seasonally adjusted real GDP contracts quarter on quarter, through minimum two consecutive quarters. Only 11 out of the 71 listed countries with quarterly GDP data (Poland, Slovakia, Moldova, India, China, South Korea, Indonesia, Australia, Uruguay, Colombia and Bolivia) escaped a recession in this time period.
The few recessions appearing early in 2006-07 are commonly never associated to be part of the Great Recession, which is illustrated by the fact that only two countries (Iceland and Jamaica) were in recession in Q4-2007.
One year before the maximum, in Q1-2008, only six countries were in recession (Iceland, Sweden, Finland, Ireland, Portugal and New Zealand). The number of countries in recession was 25 in Q2‑2008, 39 in Q3‑2008 and 53 in Q4‑2008. At the steepest part of the Great Recession in Q1‑2009, a total of 59 out of 71 countries were simultaneously in recession. The number of countries in recession was 37 in Q2‑2009, 13 in Q3‑2009 and 11 in Q4‑2009. One year after the maximum, in Q1‑2010, only seven countries were in recession (Greece, Croatia, Romania, Iceland, Jamaica, Venezuela and Belize).
The recession data for the overall G20-zone (representing 85% of all GWP), depict that the Great Recession existed as a global recession throughout Q3‑2008 until Q1‑2009.
Subsequent follow-up recessions in 2010‑2013 were confined to Belize, El Salvador, Paraguay, Jamaica, Japan, Taiwan, New Zealand and 24 out of 50 European countries (including Greece). As of October 2014, only five out of the 71 countries with available quarterly data (Cyprus, Italy, Croatia, Belize and El Salvador), were still in ongoing recessions.[3][4] The many follow-up recessions hitting the European countries, are commonly referred to as being direct repercussions of the European sovereign‑debt crisis.
| Country[a] | Recession period(s) during 2006‑2017[3][4] (measured by quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally adjusted real GDP, as per the latest revised Q3-2013 data from 10 January 2014)[b] |
|---|---|
| Albania | Q1-2007 until Q2-2007 (6 months)[5] Q3-2009 until Q4-2009 (6 months)[5] Q4-2011 until Q1-2012 (6 months)[5] |
| Argentina | Q4-2008 until Q2-2009 (9 months) Q1-2012 until Q2-2012 (6 months) Q3-2013 until Q3-2014 (12 months) Q3-2015 until Q3-2016 (15 months) |
| Australia | None |
| Austria | Q2-2008 until Q2-2009 (15 months) Q3-2011 until Q4-2011 (6 months) |
| Belgium | Q3-2008 until Q1-2009 (9 months) Q2-2012 until Q1-2013 (12 months) |
| Belize | Q1-2006 until Q2-2006 (6 months)[6] Q1-2007 until Q3-2007 (9 months)[6] Q4-2008 until Q1-2009 (6 months)[6] Q4-2009 until Q1-2010 (6 months)[6] Q1-2011 until Q2-2011 (6 months)[6] Q2-2013 until Q1-2017 (48 months)[6] |
| Bolivia | None[7][c] |
| Brazil | Q4-2008 until Q1-2009 (6 months) Q1-2014 until Q4-2016 (36 months) |
| Bulgaria | Q1-2009 until Q2-2009 (6 months) |
| Canada | Q4-2008 until Q2-2009 (9 months) |
| Chile | Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months) |
| China | None |
| Colombia | None[8][9] |
| Costa Rica | Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months)[10] |
| Croatia | Q3-2008 until Q2-2010 (24 months) Q3-2011 until Q4-2012 (18 months) Q2-2013 until Q2 2014 (15 months) |
| Cyprus | Q1-2009 until Q4-2009 (12 months) Q3-2011 until Q4-2014 (42 months) |
| Czech Republic | Q4-2008 until Q2-2009 (9 months) Q4-2011 until Q1-2013 (18 months) |
| Denmark | Q3-2008 until Q2-2009 (12 months) Q3-2011 until Q4-2011 (6 months) Q4-2012 until Q1-2013 (6 months) |
| Ecuador | Q4-2006 until Q1-2007 (6 months)[11] Q1-2009 until Q3-2009 (9 months)[12][13] |
| El Salvador | Q3-2008 until Q2-2009 (12 months)[14][d] |
| Estonia | Q3-2008 until Q3-2009 (15 months) Q1-2013 until Q2-2013 (6 months) |
| EU (28 member states) | Q2-2008 until Q2-2009 (15 months) Q4-2011 until Q2-2012 (9 months) Q4-2012 until Q1-2013 (6 months) |
| Eurozone (17 member states) | Q2-2008 until Q2-2009 (15 months) Q4-2011 until Q1-2013 (18 months) |
| Finland | Q1-2008 until Q2-2009 (18 months) Q2-2012 until Q1-2015 (36 months) |
| France | Q2-2008 until Q2-2009 (15 months) Q4-2012 until Q1-2013 (6 months) |
| G20 (43 member states, PPP-weighted GDP)[e] | Q3-2008 until Q1-2009 (9 months) |
| Germany | Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months) |
| Greece | Q3-2008 until Q2-2014 (63 months) Q1-2015 until Q1-2017 (27 months) |
| Hong Kong | Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months)[17] |
| Hungary | Q1-2007 until Q2-2007 (6 months) Q2-2008 until Q3-2009 (18 months) Q2-2011 until Q3-2011 (6 months) Q1-2012 until Q4-2012 (12 months) |
| Iceland | Q4-2007 until Q2-2008 (9 months) Q4-2008 until Q1-2009 (6 months) Q3-2009 until Q2-2010 (12 months) |
| India | None |
| Indonesia | None |
| Ireland | Q2-2007 until Q3-2007 (6 months) Q1-2008 until Q4-2009 (24 months) Q3-2011 until Q2-2013 (24 months) |
| Israel | Q4-2008 until Q1-2009 (6 months) |
| Italy | Q3-2007 until Q4-2007 (6 months) Q2-2008 until Q2-2009 (15 months) Q3-2011 until Q3-2013 (27 months) Q1-2014 until Q4-2014 (12 months) |
| Jamaica | Q3-2007 until Q4-2007 (6 months)[18] Q3-2008 until Q1-2009 (9 months)[18] Q4-2009 until Q2-2010 (9 months)[18] Q4-2011 until Q1-2012 (6 months)[18] Q4-2012 until Q1-2013 (6 months)[18] |
| Japan | Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months) Q4-2010 until Q2-2011 (9 months) Q2-2012 until Q3-2012 (6 months) |
| Kazakhstan | Q3-2008 until Q1-2009 (9 months)[19][f] |
| Latvia | Q1-2008 until Q3-2009 (18 months) Q1-2010 until Q2-2010 (12 months) |
| Lithuania | Q3-2008 until Q2-2009 (12 months) |
| Luxembourg | Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months) |
| Macedonia | Q1-2009 until Q3-2009 (9 months)[20] Q1-2012 until Q2-2012 (6 months)[20] (not qoq-data, but quarters compared with same quarter of last year)[b] Q1-2012 until Q2-2012 (6 months) |
| Malaysia | Q3-2008 until Q1-2009 (9 months)[21][22] |
| Malta | Q4-2008 until Q1-2009 (6 months) |
| Mexico | Q3-2008 until Q2-2009 (12 months) |
| Moldova | None[23][g] |
| Netherlands | Q2-2008 until Q2-2009 (15 months) Q2-2011 until Q1-2012 (12 months) Q3-2012 until Q2-2013 (12 months) |
| New Zealand | Q1-2008 until Q2-2009 (18 months) Q3-2010 until Q4-2010 (6 months) |
| Norway | Q1-2009 until Q2-2009 (6 months) Q2-2010 until Q3-2010 (6 months) Q1-2011 until Q2-2011 (6 months) |
| OECD (34 member states, PPP-weighted GDP) | Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months) |
| Paraguay | Q3-2008 until Q1-2009 (9 months)[24] Q2-2011 until Q3-2011 (6 months)[24] |
| Peru | Q4-2008 until Q2-2009 (9 months)[25] |
| Philippines | Q4-2008 until Q1-2009 (6 months)[26][27] |
| Poland | None |
| Portugal | Q2-2007 until Q3-2007 (6 months) Q1-2008 until Q1-2009 (15 months) Q4-2010 until Q1-2013 (30 months) |
| Romania | Q4-2008 until Q2-2009 (9 months) Q4-2009 until Q1-2010 (6 months) Q4-2011 until Q1-2012 (6 months) |
| Russia | Q3-2008 until Q2-2009 (12 months) Q4-2014 until Q4-2016 (27 months) |
| Serbia | Q2-2008 until Q2-2009 (15 months)[28] Q2-2011 until Q1-2012 (12 months)[28] Q3-2012 until Q4-2012 (6 months)[28] |
| Singapore | Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months)[29][30][31][32][33] |
| Slovakia | None |
| Slovenia | Q3-2008 until Q2-2009 (12 months) Q3-2011 until Q4-2013 (24 months)[34][35] |
| South Africa | Q4-2008 until Q2-2009 (9 months) |
| South Korea | None |
| Spain | Q2-2008 until Q4-2009 (21 months) Q2-2011 until Q2-2013 (27 months) |
| Sweden | Q1-2008 until Q1-2009 (15 months) |
| Switzerland | Q4-2008 until Q2-2009 (9 months) |
| Taiwan | Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months)[36] Q3-2011 until Q4-2011 (6 months)[36] |
| Thailand | Q4-2008 until Q1-2009 (6 months)[37] |
| Turkey | Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months) |
| Ukraine | Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months)[38] Q3-2012 until Q4-2012 (6 months)[38][39][40] |
| United Kingdom | Q2-2008 until Q2-2009 (15 months)[41] |
| United States | Q3-2008 until Q2-2009 (12 months) |
| Uruguay | None[42] |
| Venezuela | Q1-2009 until Q1-2010 (15 months)[43] |
- ^ 105 out of the 206 sovereign countries in the World, did not publish any quarterly GDP data for the 2006‑2013 period. The following 21 countries were also excluded from the table, due to only publishing unadjusted quarterly real GDP figures with no seasonal adjustment: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Brunei, Dominican Republic, Egypt, Georgia, Guatemala, Iran, Jordan, Macao, Montenegro, Morocco, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Palestine, Qatar, Rwanda, Sri Lanka, Trinidad and Tobago, Vietnam.
- ^ a b Only seasonally adjusted qoq-data can be used to accurately determine recession periods. When quarterly change is calculated by comparing quarters with the same quarter of last year, this results only in an aggregated -often delayed- indication, because of being a product of all quarterly changes taking place since the same quarter last year. Currently there is no seasonal adjusted qoq-data available for Greece and Macedonia, which is why the table display the recession intervals for these two countries only based upon the alternative indicative data format.
- ^ Bolivia had as of January 2014 only published seasonally adjusted real GDP data until Q1-2010, with the statistics office still to publish data for 2010-13.[7]
- ^ According to the methodology note for the quarterly GDP of El Salvador, this data series include seasonally adjustments.[15]
- ^ The G20-zone represents 85% of all GWP, and comprise 19 member states (incl. UK, France, Germany and Italy) along with the EU Commission as the 20th member, who represents the remaining 24 EU member states in the forum.[16]
- ^ Kazakhstan had as of January 2014 only published seasonally adjusted real GDP data until Q4-2009, with the statistics office still to publish data for 2010-13.[19]
- ^ Moldova had as of January 2014 only published seasonally adjusted real GDP data until Q4-2010, with the statistics office still to publish data for 2011-13.[23]
References[]
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- ^ "South Africa Says Moody's Recession Claim `Alarmist'". Bloomberg. 2008-07-09. Retrieved 2008-07-19.
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- ^ a b c d e f "Third Quarter GDP Times Series 2013: Gross Domestic Product by Activity, Constant 2000 prices – BZ$ million" (XLS). Statistical Institute of Belize. 18 December 2013.
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- ^ a b "Table: Gross Domestic Product by production approach, by NKD Rev.1, by quarters (volume indices, compared to the corresponding period of the previous year, %)". MAK Stat Database. State Statistical Office of the Republic of Macedonia. 13 December 2013.
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- ^ SingStat Time Series (access to database require payment subscription)
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External links[]
Categories:
- Great Recession
- Economy of Africa
- 2000s in Africa
- 2010s in Africa
- Economic history of Africa