Next Catalan regional election

Next Catalan regional election
All 135 seats in the Parliament of Catalonia; 68 seats needed for a majority
	Opinion polls
	Constituency results map for the Parliament of Catalonia
Incumbent President; Pere Aragonès; ERC	; ;

The next Catalan regional election will be held no later than Monday, 31 March 2025, to elect the 14th Parliament of the autonomous community of Catalonia. All 135 seats in the Parliament will be up for election.

Overview[]

Electoral system[]

The Parliament of Catalonia is the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Catalonia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Catalan Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.^[1]

As a result of no regional electoral law having been approved since the re-establishment of Catalan autonomy, the electoral procedure comes regulated under Transitory Provision Fourth of the 1979 Statute, supplemented by the provisions within the Organic Law of General Electoral Regime.^[a] Voting for the Parliament is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over eighteen, registered in Catalonia and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Catalans abroad are required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).^[2] The 135 members of the Parliament of Catalonia are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of three percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Parties not reaching the threshold are not taken into consideration for seat distribution. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Barcelona, Girona, Lleida and Tarragona, with each being allocated a fixed number of seats: 85 for Barcelona, 17 for Girona, 15 for Lleida and 18 for Tarragona.^[1]^[3]

The use of the D'Hondt method may result in a higher effective threshold, depending on the district magnitude.^[4]

Election date[]

The term of the Parliament of Catalonia expires four years after the date of its previous election, unless it is dissolved earlier. The regional president is required to call an election fifteen days prior to the date of expiry of parliament, with election day taking place within from forty to sixty days after the call. The previous election was held on 14 February 2021, which means that the legislature's term will expire on 14 February 2025. The election is required to be called no later than 30 January 2025, with it taking place up to the sixtieth day from the call, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Monday, 31 March 2025.^[1]

The president has the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Catalonia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process and that dissolution does not occur before one year has elapsed since a previous one under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament is to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.^[1]

Parliamentary composition[]

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the present time.^[5]^[6]^[7]

Current parliamentary composition
Groups		Parties		Legislators
Groups		Parties		Seats	Total
	Socialists' and United to Advance Parliamentary Group		PSC	32	33
	Socialists' and United to Advance Parliamentary Group		Els Units	1	33
	Republican Parliamentary Group		ERC	33	33
	Together for Catalonia's Parliamentary Group		JxCat	29	32
			AxR	1
			IdE	1
			DC	1
	Vox's Parliamentary Group in Catalonia		Vox	11	11
	Popular Unity Candidacy–A New Cycle to Win's Parliamentary Group		CUP	8	9
			Guanyem	1	9
	In Common We Can's Parliamentary Group		CatComú	6	8
	In Common We Can's Parliamentary Group		Podem	2	8
	Citizens's Parliamentary Group		Cs	6	6
	Mixed Group		PP	2	3
	Mixed Group		Valents	1	3

Parties and candidates[]

The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.^[8]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:

Candidacy		Parties and alliances	Leading candidate		Ideology	Previous result		Gov.	Ref.
Candidacy		Parties and alliances	Leading candidate		Ideology	Votes (%)	Seats	Gov.	Ref.
	PSC–PSOE	List Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC–PSOE) United to Advance (Els Units)		Salvador Illa	Social democracy	23.03%	33	N	^[9]
	ERC	List Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC)		Pere Aragonès	Catalan independence Left-wing nationalism Social democracy	21.30%	33	Y
	JxCat	List Together for Catalonia (JxCat) – Action for the Republic (AxR) – Left Independentists (IdE) – The Greens–Green Alternative (EV–AV) – Independence Rally (RI.cat) Democrats of Catalonia (DC) Left Movement (MES) Catalan Solidarity for Independence (SI)		Laura Borràs	Catalan independence Populism	20.07%	32	Y
	Vox	List Vox (Vox)		Ignacio Garriga	Right-wing populism Ultranationalism National conservatism	7.67%	11	N
	ECP–PEC	List Catalunya en Comú (CatComú) – Barcelona in Common (BComú) – United Left Catalonia (EUCat) – Greens Equo (Verds Equo) In Common We Can (ECP) We Can (Podem)		Jéssica Albiach	Left-wing populism Direct democracy Eco-socialism	6.87%	8	N
	CUP–G	List Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP) – Forward–Socialist Organization of National Liberation (Endavant–OSAN) – Free People (PL–PPCC) – Internationalist Struggle (LI–CI) Let's Reverse (Capgirem) Guanyem Catalunya (Guanyem) Pirates of Catalonia (Pirata.cat)		Dolors Sabater	Catalan independence Anti-capitalism Socialism	6.68%	9	N
	Cs	List Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (Cs)		Carlos Carrizosa	Liberalism	5.58%	6	N
	PP	List People's Party (PP) Brave (Valents)		Alejandro Fernández	Conservatism Christian democracy	3.85%	3	N

Opinion polls[]

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates[]

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 68 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Catalonia.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout										Lead
Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout										Lead
ElectoPanel/Electomanía^{[p 1]}	30 Aug–14 Oct 2021	4,146	?	24.7 35	24.6 38	18.0 27	7.2 10	6.5 7	6.9 10	2.6 0	6.3 8	–	0.1
GAD3/La Vanguardia^{[p 2]}	20–22 Sep 2021	806	62.0	24.1 33/34	25.9 39/40	17.3 27	6.9 8/10	8.1 10	4.6 6/7	3.8 3	5.9 6/7	0.6 0	1.8
ElectoPanel/Electomanía^{[p 3]}	31 May–13 Jul 2021	3,458	?	24.7 36	23.4 35	19.5 31	7.1 8	6.3 7	7.4 10	2.2 0	6.7 8	–	1.3
Opinòmetre/CEO^{[p 4]}	11–19 May 2021	1,200	60	23.8 34/35	24.0 36/37	18.0 28/29	6.2 7/8	6.6 8/9	8.3 11/12	2.4 0/2	6.4 6/7	–	0.2
GESOP/El Periódico^{[p 5]}	12–14 May 2021	801	?	26.2 37/38	22.5 34/36	17.0 25/27	7.7 10/11	6.9 8/9	7.5 9/10	4.0 3/4	4.9 5/6	1.3 0	3.7
GAD3/La Vanguardia^{[p 6]}	11–12 May 2021	800	56.0	25.4 36	22.2 35	20.8 33	6.3 8	6.4 7	6.2 8	2.3 0	7.0 8	0.8 0	3.2
NC Report/La Razón^{[p 7]}^{[p 8]}	30 Mar–1 Apr 2021	1,000	50.4	23.5 34	22.4 34	19.2 31	8.1 12	6.7 8	6.9 9	3.1 2	5.4 5	–	1.1

2021 regional election	14 Feb 2021	N/A	51.3	23.0 33	21.3 33	20.1 32	7.7 11	6.9 8	6.7 9	5.6 6	3.8 3	2.7 0	1.7

Voting preferences[]

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size										?	N	Lead
Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size										?	N	Lead
GESOP/ICPS^{[p 9]}	4–29 Oct 2021	1,200	14.3	19.6	10.5	2.8	4.4	7.1	3.0	2.8	0.5	16.7	12.3	5.3
GAD3/La Vanguardia^{[p 10]}	20–22 Sep 2021	806	17.6	18.3	8.8	3.9	5.1	2.9	2.7	3.5	–	35.4		0.7
Opinòmetre/CEO^{[p 4]}	11–19 May 2021	1,200	12.9	15.9	8.6	1.9	4.9	6.0	1.0	3.1	–	27.4	11.6	3.0
GESOP/El Periódico^{[p 5]}	12–14 May 2021	801	19.0	17.8	10.2	2.2	5.7	5.9	1.9	1.5	0.4	10.8	19.1	1.2
GAD3/La Vanguardia^{[p 11]}	11–12 May 2021	800	18.5	15.7	10.3	4.1	4.2	3.6	1.8	4.5	–	35.5		2.8

2021 regional election	14 Feb 2021	N/A	12.2	11.2	10.6	4.1	3.6	3.5	2.9	2.0	1.4	N/A	46.5	1.0

Preferred President[]

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Government of Catalonia.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size										Other/ None/ Not care	?	Lead

			Illa PSC	Aragonès ERC	Puigdem. JxCat	Garriga Vox	Albiach ECP	Sabater CUP	Carrizosa Cs	Fernández PP	Chacón PDeCAT
GESOP/El Periódico^{[p 12]}	12–14 May 2021	801	21.7	18.4	15.5	0.9	4.3	2.6	0.4	1.4	2.1	19.0	13.7	3.3

Notes[]

^ Transitory Provision Second of the 2006 Statute maintained the validity of the electoral regulations within the 1979 Statute, of application for as long as a specific law regulating the procedures for elections to the Parliament of Catalonia was not approved.

References[]

Opinion poll sources

^ "Empate PSC-ERC, Junts baja y Vox cuarto". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 October 2021.
^ "ERC adelanta al PSC, que también ampliaría su ventaja sobre Junts". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 26 September 2021.
^ "CatPanel (15JL): bajada de Vox, que es sorpassado por la CUP. Subida del PSC". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 July 2021.
^ ^a ^b "Enquesta sobre context polític a Catalunya. 2021" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 28 May 2021.
^ ^a ^b "Encuesta elecciones Catalunya: Una repetición electoral reforzaría a PSC y a ERC, y haría caer a Junts". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 15 May 2021.
^ "El PSC ampliaría su ventaja y ERC superaría a Junts si se votara otra vez". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 16 May 2021.
^ "Elecciones en Cataluña: Castigo a JxCat por el "no" a ERC y trasvase de votos de Cs al PP". La Razón (in Spanish). 3 April 2021.
^ "CATALUÑA. Encuesta NC Report 03/04/2021: CUP-G 6,9% (9), JxCAT 19,2% (31), ERC 22,4% (34), ECP-PEC 6,7% (8), PSC 23,5% (34), Cs 3,1% (2), PP 5,4% (5), VOX 8,1% (12)". Electograph (in Spanish). 3 April 2021.
^ "Sondeig d'Opinió ICPS, 2021" (PDF). ICPS (in Catalan). 3 December 2021.
^ "Sondeo de GAD3 para 'La Vanguardia'. Ficha técnica". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 26 September 2021.
^ "Método de estimación de voto y escaños". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 16 May 2021.
^ "Sondeo Catalunya: Illa es el preferido como 'president' y Aragonès aventaja a Puigdemont". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 15 May 2021.

Other

^ ^a ^b ^c ^d "Ley Orgánica 6/2006, de 19 de julio, de reforma del Estatuto de Autonomía de Cataluña". Organic Law No. 6 of 19 July 2006. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 14 March 2017.
^ Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
^ "Ley Orgánica 4/1979, de 18 de diciembre, de Estatuto de Autonomía de Cataluña". Organic Law No. 4 of 18 December 1979. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 14 March 2017.
^ Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Archived from the original on 30 July 2017. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
^ "Eleccions al Parlament de Catalunya (1980 - 2021)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 19 May 2021.
^ "Parlament de Catalunya: grups parlamentaris (1980 - ...)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 19 May 2021.
^ "Diputats del Parlament de Catalunya (1932 - 2021)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 19 May 2021.
^ "Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 30 January 2020.
^ G. Sastre, Daniel (27 October 2021). "El PSC nombra a Illa primer secretario electo". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). Retrieved 28 October 2021.

[2] Transitory Provision Second of the 2006 Statute maintained the validity of the electoral regulations within the 1979 Statute, of application for as long as a specific law regulating the procedures for elections to the Parliament of Catalonia was not approved.

[11] "Empate PSC-ERC, Junts baja y Vox cuarto". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 October 2021.

[12] "ERC adelanta al PSC, que también ampliaría su ventaja sobre Junts". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 26 September 2021.

[13] "CatPanel (15JL): bajada de Vox, que es sorpassado por la CUP. Subida del PSC". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 July 2021.

[CEOMay21-14] "Enquesta sobre context polític a Catalunya. 2021" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 28 May 2021.

[GESOPMay21-15] "Encuesta elecciones Catalunya: Una repetición electoral reforzaría a PSC y a ERC, y haría caer a Junts". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 15 May 2021.

[16] "El PSC ampliaría su ventaja y ERC superaría a Junts si se votara otra vez". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 16 May 2021.

[17] "Elecciones en Cataluña: Castigo a JxCat por el "no" a ERC y trasvase de votos de Cs al PP". La Razón (in Spanish). 3 April 2021.

[18] "CATALUÑA. Encuesta NC Report 03/04/2021: CUP-G 6,9% (9), JxCAT 19,2% (31), ERC 22,4% (34), ECP-PEC 6,7% (8), PSC 23,5% (34), Cs 3,1% (2), PP 5,4% (5), VOX 8,1% (12)". Electograph (in Spanish). 3 April 2021.

[19] "Sondeig d'Opinió ICPS, 2021" (PDF). ICPS (in Catalan). 3 December 2021.

[20] "Sondeo de GAD3 para 'La Vanguardia'. Ficha técnica". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 26 September 2021.

[21] "Método de estimación de voto y escaños". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 16 May 2021.

[22] "Sondeo Catalunya: Illa es el preferido como 'president' y Aragonès aventaja a Puigdemont". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 15 May 2021.

[CatSoA06-1] "Ley Orgánica 6/2006, de 19 de julio, de reforma del Estatuto de Autonomía de Cataluña". Organic Law No. 6 of 19 July 2006. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 14 March 2017.

[3] Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.

[CatSoA79-4] "Ley Orgánica 4/1979, de 18 de diciembre, de Estatuto de Autonomía de Cataluña". Organic Law No. 4 of 18 December 1979. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 14 March 2017.

[5] Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Archived from the original on 30 July 2017. Retrieved 22 July 2017.

[HE-6] "Eleccions al Parlament de Catalunya (1980 - 2021)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 19 May 2021.

[7] "Parlament de Catalunya: grups parlamentaris (1980 - ...)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 19 May 2021.

[8] "Diputats del Parlament de Catalunya (1932 - 2021)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 19 May 2021.

[SpaELaw-9] "Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 30 January 2020.

[10] G. Sastre, Daniel (27 October 2021). "El PSC nombra a Illa primer secretario electo". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). Retrieved 28 October 2021.

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v t Elections and referendums in Catalonia
Regional elections	1932 1980 1984 1988 1992 1995 1999 2003 2006 2010 2012 2015 2017 2021 Next
General elections	1977 1979 1982 1986 1989 1993 1996 2000 2004 2008 2011 2015 2016 2019 (Apr) 2019 (Nov)
European Parliament elections	1987 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019
Local elections	1931 1934 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019
Referendums	1931 1979 2006 2009–11 2014 2017

v t (← 2010s) Regional elections in Spain in the 2020s
2020	July: Basque Country Galicia
2021	February: Catalonia May: Madrid
2022	February: Castile and León TBD: Andalusia
2023	May(*): Asturias Canary Islands Cantabria Castilla–La Mancha Ceuta La Rioja Madrid Melilla Murcia
Other	2023 or earlier: Aragon Balearic Islands Extremadura Navarre Valencian Community 2024 or earlier: Basque Country Galicia 2025 or earlier: Catalonia 2026 or earlier: Castile and León
(*) Lists autonomous communities with a fixed election date for May 2023. This listing does not preclude these communities holding additional, earlier elections under their statutory provisions.