2023 Madrilenian regional election

2023 Madrilenian regional election
All 136 seats in the Assembly of Madrid; 69 seats needed for a majority
	Opinion polls
Incumbent President; Isabel Díaz Ayuso; PP	; ;

The 2023 Madrilenian regional election will be held on Sunday, 28 May 2023, to elect the 13th Assembly of the Community of Madrid. All 136 seats in the Assembly will be up for election. Because regional elections in the Community of Madrid are mandated for the fourth Sunday of May every four years, the 2021 snap election does not alter the term of the four-year legislature starting in 2019.

Overview[]

Electoral system[]

The Assembly of Madrid is the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Madrid, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Madrilenian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.^[1]

Voting for the Assembly is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over eighteen, registered in the Community of Madrid and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Madrilenians abroad are required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).^[2] All members of the Assembly of Madrid are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of five percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied regionally. Parties not reaching the threshold are not taken into consideration for seat distribution. The Assembly is entitled to one member per each 50,000 inhabitants or fraction greater than 25,000.^[1]^[3]

Election date[]

The term of the Assembly of Madrid expires four years after the date of its previous election. Elections to the Assembly are fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous ordinary election was held on 26 May 2019, setting the election date for the Assembly on Sunday, 28 May 2023.^[1]^[3]^[4]

The president has the prerogative to dissolve the Assembly of Madrid and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process, no nationwide election is due and some time requirements are met: namely, that dissolution does not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year has elapsed since a previous dissolution. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Assembly shall be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances will not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remains of their four-year terms.^[1]

Parliamentary composition[]

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Assembly at the present time.^[5]

Current parliamentary composition^[6]
Groups		Parties		Legislators
Groups		Parties		Seats	Total
	People's Parliamentary Group of the Assembly of Madrid		PP	65	65
	More Madrid Parliamentary Group		Más Madrid	24	24
	Socialist Parliamentary Group		PSOE	24	24
	Vox Parliamentary Group in Madrid		Vox	13	13
	United We Can Parliamentary Group		Podemos	8	10
	United We Can Parliamentary Group		IU–M	2	10

Parties and candidates[]

The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least 0.5 percent of the electorate in the Community of Madrid, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.^[3]^[4]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:

Candidacy		Parties and alliances	Leading candidate		Ideology	Previous result		Gov.	Ref.
Candidacy		Parties and alliances	Leading candidate		Ideology	Votes (%)	Seats	Gov.	Ref.
	PP	List People's Party (PP)		Isabel Díaz Ayuso	Conservatism Christian democracy	44.76%	65	Y
	Más Madrid	List More Madrid (Más Madrid) Greens Equo (Verdes Equo)		Mónica García	Progressivism Participatory democracy Green politics	16.99%	24	N
	PSOE	List Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)		Juan Lobato	Social democracy	16.80%	24	N	^[7] ^[8]
	Vox	List Vox (Vox)		Rocío Monasterio	Right-wing populism Ultranationalism National conservatism	9.15%	13	N
	Podemos– IU–AV	List We Can (Podemos) United Left–Madrid (IU–M) – Communist Party of Madrid (PCM) – The Dawn. Marxist Organization OM (La Aurora (om)) – Republican Left (IR) Green Alliance (AV)		Carolina Alonso	Left-wing populism Direct democracy Democratic socialism	7.24%	10	N	^[9]

Opinion polls[]

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 69 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Assembly of Madrid.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout							Lead
Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout							Lead
ElectoPanel/Electomanía^{[p 1]}	17–18 Feb 2022	1,208	?	44.0 62	20.5 29	17.0 24	10.5 14	5.2 7	2.5 0	23.5
IMOP/El Confidencial^{[p 2]}^{[p 3]}	10–11 Nov 2021	710	?	47.3 67	17.9 25	16.1 23	9.3 13	5.7 8	2.3 0	29.4
Sigma Dos/El Mundo^{[p 4]}^{[p 5]}	3–6 Nov 2021	1,224	?	46.2 66	18.1 25	16.3 23	9.3 13	6.4 9	2.9 0	28.1
ElectoPanel/Electomanía^{[p 6]}	13 Jul–21 Aug 2021	1,239	?	45.8 69	19.8 29	16.6 25	9.0 13	4.8 0	2.2 0	26.0

2021 regional election	4 May 2021	N/A	71.7	44.8 65	17.0 24	16.8 24	9.1 13	7.2 10	3.6 0	27.8

References[]

Opinion poll sources

^ "CAMPanel (18F): ligera subida de la izquierda, pero Ayuso apenas se resiente". Electomanía (in Spanish). 18 February 2022.
^ "Ayuso arrasa en Madrid: saca 15 puntos más en autonómicas que Casado en las generales". El Confidencial (in Spanish). 17 November 2021.
^ "COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta IMOP Insights 17/11/2021: PODEMOS-IU 5,7% (8), MÁS MADRID 17,9% (25), PSOE 16,1% (23), Cs 2,3%, PP 47,3% (67), VOX 9,3% (13)". Electograph (in Spanish). 17 November 2021.
^ "Almeida crece pero se queda lejos de la gran mayoría que mantiene Ayuso". El Mundo (in Spanish). 9 November 2021.
^ "COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta SigmaDos 09/11/2021: PODEMOS-IU 6,4% (9), MÁS MADRID 18,1% (25), PSOE 16,3% (23), Cs 2,9%, PP 46,2% (66), VOX 9,3% (13)". Electograph (in Spanish). 9 November 2021.
^ "CAMPanel (31Ag): Ayuso lograría hoy la mayoría absoluta". Electomanía (in Spanish). 31 August 2021.

Other

^ ^a ^b ^c ^d "Ley Orgánica 3/1983, de 25 de febrero, de Estatuto de Autonomía de la Comunidad de Madrid". Organic Law No. 3 of 25 February 1983. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 22 February 2017.
^ Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
^ ^a ^b ^c "Ley 11/1986, de 16 de diciembre, Electoral de la Comunidad de Madrid". Law No. 11 of 16 November 1986. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 22 February 2017.
^ ^a ^b "Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 30 January 2020.
^ "Grupos Parlamentarios". Assembly of Madrid (in Spanish). Retrieved 10 October 2021.
^ "Elecciones autonómicas a la Asamblea de Madrid (1983-2021)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 10 October 2021.
^ "Juan Lobato será el nuevo secretario general del PSOE-M". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 23 October 2021. Retrieved 26 October 2021.
^ "Hana Jalloul pone su cargo de portavoz a disposición del PSOE y será relevada por Juan Lobato, el nuevo secretario general". elDiario.es (in Spanish). 26 October 2021. Retrieved 26 October 2021.
^ "Pablo Iglesias abandona la política tras el "fracaso" de la izquierda en Madrid". El País (in Spanish). 4 May 2021. Retrieved 5 May 2021.

[10] "CAMPanel (18F): ligera subida de la izquierda, pero Ayuso apenas se resiente". Electomanía (in Spanish). 18 February 2022.

[11] "Ayuso arrasa en Madrid: saca 15 puntos más en autonómicas que Casado en las generales". El Confidencial (in Spanish). 17 November 2021.

[12] "COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta IMOP Insights 17/11/2021: PODEMOS-IU 5,7% (8), MÁS MADRID 17,9% (25), PSOE 16,1% (23), Cs 2,3%, PP 47,3% (67), VOX 9,3% (13)". Electograph (in Spanish). 17 November 2021.

[13] "Almeida crece pero se queda lejos de la gran mayoría que mantiene Ayuso". El Mundo (in Spanish). 9 November 2021.

[14] "COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta SigmaDos 09/11/2021: PODEMOS-IU 6,4% (9), MÁS MADRID 18,1% (25), PSOE 16,3% (23), Cs 2,9%, PP 46,2% (66), VOX 9,3% (13)". Electograph (in Spanish). 9 November 2021.

[15] "CAMPanel (31Ag): Ayuso lograría hoy la mayoría absoluta". Electomanía (in Spanish). 31 August 2021.

[MadSoA-1] "Ley Orgánica 3/1983, de 25 de febrero, de Estatuto de Autonomía de la Comunidad de Madrid". Organic Law No. 3 of 25 February 1983. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 22 February 2017.

[2] Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.

[MadELaw-3] "Ley 11/1986, de 16 de diciembre, Electoral de la Comunidad de Madrid". Law No. 11 of 16 November 1986. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 22 February 2017.

[SpaELaw-4] "Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 30 January 2020.

[5] "Grupos Parlamentarios". Assembly of Madrid (in Spanish). Retrieved 10 October 2021.

[HE-6] "Elecciones autonómicas a la Asamblea de Madrid (1983-2021)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 10 October 2021.

[7] "Juan Lobato será el nuevo secretario general del PSOE-M". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 23 October 2021. Retrieved 26 October 2021.

[8] "Hana Jalloul pone su cargo de portavoz a disposición del PSOE y será relevada por Juan Lobato, el nuevo secretario general". elDiario.es (in Spanish). 26 October 2021. Retrieved 26 October 2021.

[9] "Pablo Iglesias abandona la política tras el "fracaso" de la izquierda en Madrid". El País (in Spanish). 4 May 2021. Retrieved 5 May 2021.

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v t Elections in the Community of Madrid
Regional elections	1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 (May) 2003 (Oct) 2007 2011 2015 2019 2021 2023
General elections	1977 1979 1982 1986 1989 1993 1996 2000 2004 2008 2011 2015 2016 2019 (Apr) 2019 (Nov)
European Parliament elections	1987 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019
Local elections	1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019

v t (← 2010s) Regional elections in Spain in the 2020s
2020	July: Basque Country Galicia
2021	February: Catalonia May: Madrid
2022	February: Castile and León TBD: Andalusia
2023	May(*): Asturias Canary Islands Cantabria Castilla–La Mancha Ceuta La Rioja Madrid Melilla Murcia
Other	2023 or earlier: Aragon Balearic Islands Extremadura Navarre Valencian Community 2024 or earlier: Basque Country Galicia 2025 or earlier: Catalonia 2026 or earlier: Castile and León
(*) Lists autonomous communities with a fixed election date for May 2023. This listing does not preclude these communities holding additional, earlier elections under their statutory provisions.