Next Navarrese regional election

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Next Navarrese regional election
← 2019 No later than 25 June 2023
(Tentatively scheduled for 28 May 2023)
All 50 seats in the Parliament of Navarre
26 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
  José Javier Esparza 2014 (cropped).jpg La candidata del PSN a la presidencia del Gobierno de Navarra, María Chivite (Infobox election).jpg Uxue Barkos 2018b (cropped).jpg
Leader María Chivite Uxue Barkos
Party NA+ PSOE GBai
Leader since 30 November 2014 13 December 2014 3 October 2014
Last election 20 seats, 36.6% 11 seats, 20.6% 9 seats, 17.3%
Current seats 20 11 9
Seats needed Green Arrow Up Darker.svg6 Green Arrow Up Darker.svg15 Green Arrow Up Darker.svg17
  Bakartxo Ruiz 2015 (cropped).jpg Mikel Buil, candidato de Podemos al Gobierno de Navarra (cropped).jpg Portrait placeholder.svg
Leader
Party EH Bildu Podemos I–E (n)
Leader since 30 May 2018 27 November 2018 23 October 2021
Last election 7 seats, 14.5% 2 seats, 4.7% 1 seat, 3.0%
Current seats 7 2 1
Seats needed Green Arrow Up Darker.svg19 Green Arrow Up Darker.svg24 Green Arrow Up Darker.svg25
Incumbent President

María Chivite
PSOE



The next Navarrese regional election will be held no later than Sunday, 25 June 2023, to elect the 11th Parliament of the Chartered Community of Navarre. All 50 seats in the Parliament will be up for election.

Overview[]

Electoral system[]

The Parliament of Navarre is the devolved, unicameral legislature of the Chartered Community of Navarre, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Reintegration and Enhancement of the Foral Regime of Navarre Law, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1]

Voting is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over eighteen, registered in Navarre and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Navarrese abroad are required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[2] The 50 members of the Parliament of Navarre are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of three percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied regionally. Parties not reaching the threshold are not taken into consideration for seat distribution.[3]

Election date[]

The term of the Parliament of Navarre expires four years after the date of its previous election, unless it is dissolved earlier. The election decree shall be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of Navarre (BON), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 26 May 2019, which means that the legislature's term will expire on 26 May 2023. The election decree must be published in the BON no later than 2 May 2023, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Sunday, 25 June 2023.[1][3][4]

The president has the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Navarre and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process, no nationwide election is due and some time requirements are met: namely, that dissolution does not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year has elapsed since a previous dissolution under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a three-month period from the election date, the Parliament shall be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[1]

Parliamentary composition[]

Further information: 10th Parliament of Navarre

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Parliament at the present time.

Current parliamentary composition[5]
Groups Parties Legislators
Seats Total
Sum Navarre Parliamentary Group UPN 15 20
Cs 3
PP 2
Socialist Party of Navarre Parliamentary Group PSN–PSOE 11 11
Yes to the Future Parliamentary Group Zabaltzen 5 9
EAJ/PNV 4
EH Bildu Navarre Parliamentary Group Sortu 4 7
EA 3
Mixed Group Podemos 2 3
I–E (n) 1

Parties and candidates[]

The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in Navarre, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[3][4]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:

Candidacy Parties and
alliances 		Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Gov. Ref.
Votes (%) Seats
NA+
List
 José Javier Esparza 2014 (cropped).jpg Javier Esparza Regionalism
Christian democracy
Conservatism
Liberalism 		36.57% 20 ☒N [6]
PSN–PSOE
List
 La candidata del PSN a la presidencia del Gobierno de Navarra, María Chivite (Infobox election).jpg María Chivite Social democracy 20.63% 11 checkY
GBai
List
 Uxue Barkos 2018b (cropped).jpg Uxue Barkos Basque nationalism
Social democracy 		17.32% 9 checkY
EH Bildu
List
 Bakartxo Ruiz 2015 (cropped).jpg Bakartxo Ruiz Basque independence
Left-wing nationalism
Socialism 		14.54% 7 ☒N
Podemos
List
 Mikel Buil, candidato de Podemos al Gobierno de Navarra (cropped).jpg Mikel Buil Left-wing populism
Direct democracy
Democratic socialism 		4.74% 2 checkY
I–E (n)
List
 Portrait placeholder.svg Carlos Guzmán Socialism
Communism 		3.01% 1 ☒N [7]

Opinion polls[]

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates[]

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 26 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Navarre.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout NA+ PSN–PSOE GBai EHBildu.svg Podemos I–E (n) Vox UPsimbol.svg Lead
UPNA/Parliament of Navarre[p 1] 9–18 Sep 2021 1,200 72.2 34.5
18/19 		23.0
12/13 		13.1
7 		14.0
7 		4.0
2 		4.8
2 		1.5
0 		– 11.5
inPactos[p 2] 19–27 Apr 2021 800 ? 35.0
19 		23.0
12 		16.0
8 		13.5
7 		6.0
3 		3.0
1 		2.0
0 		– 12.0
SyM Consulting[p 3][p 4] 24–25 Mar 2021 691 72.4 36.0
20 		20.9
11/12 		17.6
9/10 		15.0
8 		2.7
0 		3.2
1 		2.4
0 		– 15.1
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 5] 15 Oct 2020 740 ? 37.4
21 		22.3
12 		13.8
7 		16.7
9 		3.2
1 		2.8
0 		2.0
0 		– 15.1
UPNA/Parliament of Navarre[p 6] 9–19 Sep 2020 1,200 72.2 36.4
20 		22.6
12 		16.2
8 		13.9
7 		4.0
2 		3.1
1 		1.5
0 		– 13.8
SyM Consulting[p 7][p 8] 21–23 May 2020 667 72.0 38.1
21 		19.7
10/11 		17.9
9/10 		14.7
8 		3.5
1 		2.4
0 		2.1
0 		– 18.4
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 9][p 10] 1 Apr–15 May 2020 ? ? 37.0
20 		22.5
12 		13.2
7 		17.1
9 		3.8
1 		3.0
1 		1.5
0 		– 14.5
November 2019 general election 10 Nov 2019 N/A 65.9 29.6
(15) 		25.0
(13) 		3.8
(2) 		16.9
(9) 		[a] [a] 5.8
(3) 		16.6
(8) 		4.6
2019 regional election 26 May 2019 N/A 68.5 36.6
20 		20.6
11 		17.3
9 		14.5
7 		4.7
2 		3.0
1 		1.3
0 		– 16.0

Voting preferences[]

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Notes[]

  1. ^ a b Within Unidas Podemos.

References[]

Opinion poll sources
  1. ^ a b "Barómetro de opinión pública del Parlamento de Navarra 2021" (PDF). UPNA (in Spanish). 20 December 2021.
  2. ^ "La crisis del coronavirus refuerza el apoyo al Gobierno de Navarra". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 6 May 2021.
  3. ^ "Estimación Marzo 2021. Navarra. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 29 March 2021.
  4. ^ "NAVARRA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 29/03/2021: EH BILDU 15,0% (8), GBAI 17,6% (9/10), I-E 3,2% (1), PODEMOS 2,7%, PSOE 20,9% (11/12), NA+ 36,0% (20), VOX 2,4%". Electograph (in Spanish). 29 March 2021.
  5. ^ "EP Autonómico (15oct): Page perdería Castilla-La Mancha. ERC sube, baja Junts y Vox roza el sorpasso a CUP en Cat. Bajada del PSN en Navarra". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 October 2020.
  6. ^ a b "Barómetro de opinión pública del Parlamento de Navarra 2020" (PDF). UPNA (in Spanish). 21 December 2020.
  7. ^ "Estimación Junio 2020. Navarra. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 5 June 2020.
  8. ^ "NAVARRA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 05/06/2020: EH BILDU 14,7% (8), GBAI 17,9% (9/10), I-E 2,4%, PODEMOS 3,5% (1), PSOE 19,7% (10/11), NA+ 38,1% (21), VOX 2,1%". Electograph (in Spanish). 5 June 2020.
  9. ^ "EP (17My): Navarra – Suben PSN, Nav+ y EH Bildu". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
  10. ^ "MacroPanel Autonómico (17My): 8 gobiernos para PSOE+, 8 para PP+ y 3 para otros+". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
Other
  1. ^ a b c "Ley Orgánica 13/1982, de 10 de agosto, de reintegración y amejoramiento del Régimen Foral de Navarra". Organic Law No. 13 of 10 August 1982. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 18 June 2017.
  2. ^ Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  3. ^ a b c "Ley Foral 16/1986, de 17 de noviembre, reguladora de las elecciones al Parlamento de Navarra". Law No. 16 of 17 December 1986. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 18 June 2017.
  4. ^ a b "Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 30 January 2020.
  5. ^ "Parliamentary groups". www.parlamentodenavarra.es/es (in Spanish). Parliament of Navarre. Retrieved 18 July 2020.
  6. ^ "Esparza será el candidato de UPN en las elecciones de 2023". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). 14 January 2022. Retrieved 24 January 2022.
  7. ^ "La asamblea de izquierda Unida de Navarra escenifica el relevo de Marisa de simón y saluda la llegada de Carlos Guzmán". Diario de Noticias (in Spanish). 23 October 2021. Retrieved 29 November 2021.
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