Post-election pendulum for the 2010 Australian federal election
The following pendulum is known as the Mackerras Pendulum, invented by psephologist Malcolm Mackerras. Designed for the outcome of the 2010 federal election, the pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament, 72 Labor, 72 Coalition, 1 Nationals WA, 1 Green and 4 independent, according to the percentage point margin on a two candidate preferred basis.[1] The two party result is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties in an election, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted. Swing is never uniform, but in practice variations of swing among the Australian states usually tend to cancel each other out. Seats are arranged in safeness categories according to the Australian Electoral Commission's classification of safeness. "Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.[2]
GOVERNMENT SEATS | |||
Marginal | |||
Corangamite (Vic) | Darren Cheeseman | ALP | 50.41 |
Greenway (NSW) | Michelle Rowland | ALP | 50.88 |
La Trobe (Vic) | Laura Smyth | ALP | 50.91 |
Robertson (NSW) | Deborah O'Neill | ALP | 51.00 |
Lindsay (NSW) | David Bradbury | ALP | 51.12 |
Moreton (Qld) | Graham Perrett | ALP | 51.13 |
Banks (NSW) | Daryl Melham | ALP | 51.45 |
Deakin (Vic) | Mike Symon | ALP | 52.41 |
Petrie (Qld) | Yvette D'Ath | ALP | 52.51 |
Reid (NSW) | John Murphy | ALP | 52.68 |
Lilley (Qld) | Wayne Swan | ALP | 53.18 |
Brand (WA) | Gary Gray | ALP | 53.33 |
Capricornia (Qld) | Kirsten Livermore | ALP | 53.68 |
Lingiari (NT) | Warren Snowdon | ALP | 53.70 |
Page (NSW) | Janelle Saffin | ALP | 54.19 |
Grayndler (NSW) | Anthony Albanese | ALP | 54.23 v GRN |
Eden-Monaro (NSW) | Mike Kelly | ALP | 54.24 |
Blair (Qld) | Shayne Neumann | ALP | 54.24 |
Parramatta (NSW) | Julie Owens | ALP | 54.37 |
Dobell (NSW) | Craig Thomson | ALP | 55.07 |
Kingsford Smith (NSW) | Peter Garrett | ALP | 55.16 |
McEwen (Vic) | Rob Mitchell | ALP | 55.32 |
Rankin (Qld) | Craig Emerson | ALP | 55.41 |
Hindmarsh (SA) | Steve Georganas | ALP | 55.70 |
Fremantle (WA) | Melissa Parke | ALP | 55.70 |
Oxley (Qld) | Bernie Ripoll | ALP | 55.77 |
Perth (WA) | Stephen Smith | ALP | 55.88 |
Fairly safe | |||
Chisholm (Vic) | Anna Burke | ALP | 56.11 |
Bass (Tas) | Geoff Lyons | ALP | 56.74 |
Werriwa (NSW) | Laurie Ferguson | ALP | 56.75 |
Barton (NSW) | Robert McClelland | ALP | 56.86 |
Richmond (NSW) | Justine Elliot | ALP | 56.99 |
Braddon (Tas) | Sid Sidebottom | ALP | 57.48 |
Melbourne Ports (Vic) | Michael Danby | ALP | 57.56 |
Adelaide (SA) | Kate Ellis | ALP | 57.69 |
McMahon (NSW) | Chris Bowen | ALP | 57.81 |
Batman (Vic) | Martin Ferguson | ALP | 57.86 v GRN |
Bruce (Vic) | Alan Griffin | ALP | 58.12 |
Griffith (Qld) | Kevin Rudd | ALP | 58.46 |
Fowler (NSW) | Chris Hayes | ALP | 58.76 |
Watson (NSW) | Tony Burke | ALP | 59.14 |
Canberra (ACT) | Gai Brodtmann | ALP | 59.15 |
Bendigo (Vic) | Steve Gibbons | ALP | 59.53 |
Safe | |||
Franklin (Tas) | Julie Collins | ALP | 60.82 |
Isaacs (Vic) | Mark Dreyfus | ALP | 61.02 |
Jagajaga (Vic) | Jenny Macklin | ALP | 61.52 |
Ballarat (Vic) | Catherine King | ALP | 61.70 |
Wakefield (SA) | Nick Champion | ALP | 61.95 |
Throsby (NSW) | Stephen Jones | ALP | 62.11 |
Makin (SA) | Tony Zappia | ALP | 62.20 |
Blaxland (NSW) | Jason Clare | ALP | 62.23 |
Lyons (Tas) | Dick Adams | ALP | 62.29 |
Chifley (NSW) | Ed Husic | ALP | 62.34 |
Hunter (NSW) | Joel Fitzgibbon | ALP | 62.48 |
Newcastle (NSW) | Sharon Grierson | ALP | 62.49 |
Charlton (NSW) | Greg Combet | ALP | 62.67 |
Shortland (NSW) | Jill Hall | ALP | 62.85 |
Cunningham (NSW) | Sharon Bird | ALP | 63.17 |
Holt (Vic) | Anthony Byrne | ALP | 63.23 |
Hotham (Vic) | Simon Crean | ALP | 63.50 |
Kingston (SA) | Amanda Rishworth | ALP | 63.91 |
Fraser (ACT) | Andrew Leigh | ALP | 64.20 |
Corio (Vic) | Richard Marles | ALP | 64.22 |
Maribyrnong (Vic) | Bill Shorten | ALP | 66.86 |
Sydney (NSW) | Tanya Plibersek | ALP | 67.07 |
Calwell (Vic) | Maria Vamvakinou | ALP | 69.72 |
Very safe | |||
Port Adelaide (SA) | Mark Butler | ALP | 70.03 |
Lalor (Vic) | Julia Gillard | ALP | 72.15 |
Gorton (Vic) | Brendan O'Connor | ALP | 72.16 |
Scullin (Vic) | Harry Jenkins | ALP | 72.25 |
Wills (Vic) | Kelvin Thomson | ALP | 72.64 |
Gellibrand (Vic) | Nicola Roxon | ALP | 73.90 |
INDEPENDENT SEATS − Committed to supporting Government on confidence and supply | |||
Melbourne (Vic) | Adam Bandt | GRN | 56.04 v ALP |
Denison (Tas) | Andrew Wilkie | IND | 51.21 v ALP |
Lyne (NSW) | Rob Oakeshott | IND | 62.73 v NAT |
New England (NSW) | Tony Windsor | IND | 71.52 v NAT |
NON-GOVERNMENT SEATS | |||
Marginal | |||
Hasluck (WA) | Ken Wyatt | LIB | 50.57 |
Boothby (SA) | Andrew Southcott | LIB | 50.75 |
Dunkley (Vic) | Bruce Billson | LIB | 51.02 |
Brisbane (Qld) | Teresa Gambaro | LNP | 51.13 |
Macquarie (NSW) | Louise Markus | LIB | 51.26 |
Forde (Qld) | Bert van Manen | LNP | 51.63 |
Solomon (NT) | Natasha Griggs | CLP | 51.75 |
Aston (Vic) | Alan Tudge | LIB | 51.76 |
Longman (Qld) | Wyatt Roy | LNP | 51.92 |
Herbert (Qld) | Ewen Jones | LNP | 52.17 |
Canning (WA) | Don Randall | LIB | 52.19 |
Dawson (Qld) | George Christensen | LNP | 52.43 |
Swan (WA) | Steve Irons | LIB | 52.53 |
Bonner (Qld) | Ross Vasta | LNP | 52.82 |
Macarthur (NSW) | Russell Matheson | LIB | 53.02 |
Bennelong (NSW) | John Alexander | LIB | 53.12 |
Sturt (SA) | Christopher Pyne | LIB | 53.43 |
Flynn (Qld) | Ken O'Dowd | LNP | 53.58 |
Fisher (Qld) | Peter Slipper | LNP | 54.13 |
Casey (Vic) | Tony Smith | LIB | 54.18 |
McMillan (Vic) | Russell Broadbent | LIB | 54.41 |
Leichhardt (Qld) | Warren Entsch | LNP | 54.55 |
Dickson (Qld) | Peter Dutton | LNP | 55.13 |
Hughes (NSW) | Craig Kelly | LIB | 55.17 |
Gilmore (NSW) | Joanna Gash | LIB | 55.32 |
Paterson (NSW) | Bob Baldwin | LIB | 55.33 |
Stirling (WA) | Michael Keenan | LIB | 55.55 |
Fairly safe | |||
Cowan (WA) | Luke Simpkins | LIB | 56.29 |
Goldstein (Vic) | Andrew Robb | LIB | 56.47 |
Higgins (Vic) | Kelly O'Dwyer | LIB | 56.75 |
Fairfax (Qld) | Alex Somlyay | LNP | 56.95 |
Ryan (Qld) | Jane Prentice | LNP | 57.16 |
Wannon (Vic) | Dan Tehan | LIB | 57.29 |
Mayo (SA) | Jamie Briggs | LIB | 57.35 |
Kooyong (Vic) | Josh Frydenberg | LIB | 57.55 |
Menzies (Vic) | Kevin Andrews | LIB | 58.72 |
Hume (NSW) | Alby Schultz | LIB | 58.72 |
Forrest (WA) | Nola Marino | LIB | 58.74 |
Pearce (WA) | Judi Moylan | LIB | 58.86 |
Flinders (Vic) | Greg Hunt | LIB | 59.11 |
Cowper (NSW) | Luke Hartsuyker | NAT | 59.27 |
Indi (Vic) | Sophie Mirabella | LIB | 59.94 |
Safe | |||
Wright (Qld) | Scott Buchholz | LNP | 60.15 |
McPherson (Qld) | Karen Andrews | LNP | 60.28 |
Hinkler (Qld) | Paul Neville | LNP | 60.39 |
Bowman (Qld) | Andrew Laming | LNP | 60.39 |
Calare (NSW) | John Cobb | NAT | 60.74 |
Grey (SA) | Rowan Ramsey | LIB | 61.16 |
Moore (WA) | Mal Washer | LIB | 61.19 |
Gippsland (Vic) | Darren Chester | NAT | 61.45 |
Tangney (WA) | Dennis Jensen | LIB | 62.32 |
Cook (NSW) | Scott Morrison | LIB | 62.66 |
Barker (SA) | Patrick Secker | LIB | 62.88 |
Warringah (NSW) | Tony Abbott | LIB | 63.09 |
Durack (WA) | Barry Haase | LIB | 63.67 |
North Sydney (NSW) | Joe Hockey | LIB | 64.06 |
Fadden (Qld) | Stuart Robert | LNP | 64.19 |
Farrer (NSW) | Sussan Ley | LIB | 64.51 |
Wentworth (NSW) | Malcolm Turnbull | LIB | 64.86 |
Wide Bay (Qld) | Warren Truss | LNP | 65.61 |
Mackellar (NSW) | Bronwyn Bishop | LIB | 65.72 |
Curtin (WA) | Julie Bishop | LIB | 66.19 |
Berowra (NSW) | Philip Ruddock | LIB | 66.20 |
Mitchell (NSW) | Alex Hawke | LIB | 67.16 |
Moncrieff (Qld) | Steven Ciobo | LNP | 67.49 |
Riverina (NSW) | Michael McCormack | NAT | 68.17 |
Bradfield (NSW) | Paul Fletcher | LIB | 68.18 |
Groom (Qld) | Ian Macfarlane | LNP | 68.53 |
Parkes (NSW) | Mark Coulton | NAT | 68.86 |
Very safe | |||
Murray (Vic) | Sharman Stone | LIB | 70.35 |
Maranoa (Qld) | Bruce Scott | LNP | 72.89 |
Mallee (Vic) | John Forrest | NAT | 74.41 |
INDEPENDENT SEATS | |||
O'Connor (WA) | Tony Crook | NWA | 53.56 v LIB |
Kennedy (Qld) | Bob Katter | IND | 68.34 v LNP |
References[]
- ^ Two Candidate Preferred by Division: AEC
- ^ Electoral matrix: APH Archived 2008-02-20 at the Wayback Machine
External links[]
- Pendulums for Australian federal elections