Pre-election pendulum for the 2010 Australian federal election
The following pendulum is known as the Mackerras Pendulum, invented by psephologist Malcolm Mackerras. Based upon the outcome of the 2007 federal election and changes before the 2010 election, the pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament, 83 Labor, 55 Liberal, 9 National, and 3 independent, according to the percentage point margin on a two party preferred basis.[1]
The margins are post-redistribution, leaving some Liberal Party MPs in seats that have a notional majority of Labor Party voters, totalling 88 Labor, 59 coalition, 3 independent. In such cases, the seat is aligned with Labor and the MP's name is highlighted in blue.
The two-party result is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties in an election, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted. Swing is never uniform, but in practice variations of swing among the Australian states usually tend to cancel each other out. Seats are arranged in categories of safeness following to the Australian Electoral Commission's classification of safeness. "Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.[2]
Queensland Liberal and National MPs contested the 2010 federal election as members of the Queensland Liberal National Party. They retained their original party affiliation until after the election.
GOVERNMENT SEATS | |||
Australian Labor Party | |||
Marginal | |||
Herbert (Qld) | Peter Lindsay[note 1] | ALP | 50.03 |
Robertson (NSW) | Belinda Neal | ALP | 50.09 |
Solomon (NT) | Damian Hale | ALP | 50.19 |
Swan (WA) | Steve Irons[note 1] | ALP | 50.27 |
Macquarie (NSW) | Bob Debus | ALP | 50.28 |
Macarthur (NSW) | Pat Farmer[note 1] | ALP | 50.51 |
Gilmore (NSW) | Joanna Gash[note 1] | ALP | 50.41 |
Dickson (Qld) | Peter Dutton[note 1] | ALP | 50.76 |
Corangamite (Vic) | Darren Cheeseman | ALP | 50.85 |
Hasluck (WA) | Sharryn Jackson | ALP | 50.85 |
Bass (Tas) | Jodie Campbell | ALP | 51.03 |
Bennelong (NSW) | Maxine McKew | ALP | 51.40 |
Deakin (Vic) | Mike Symon | ALP | 51.41 |
Longman (Qld) | Jon Sullivan | ALP | 51.87 |
Flynn (Qld) | Chris Trevor | ALP | 52.24 |
Eden-Monaro (NSW) | Mike Kelly | ALP | 52.29 |
Braddon (Tas) | Sid Sidebottom | ALP | 52.32 |
Page (NSW) | Janelle Saffin | ALP | 52.36 |
Dawson (Qld) | James Bidgood | ALP | 52.59 |
Forde (Qld) | Brett Raguse | ALP | 53.36 |
Dobell (NSW) | Craig Thomson | ALP | 53.93 |
Franklin (Tas) | Julie Collins | ALP | 54.03 |
Leichhardt (Qld) | Jim Turnour | ALP | 54.06 |
Petrie (Qld) | Yvette D'Ath | ALP | 54.21 |
Brisbane (Qld) | Arch Bevis | ALP | 54.60 |
Kingston (SA) | Amanda Rishworth | ALP | 54.42 |
Bonner (Qld) | Kerry Rea | ALP | 54.53 |
Melbourne (Vic) | Lindsay Tanner | ALP | 54.71 v GRN |
Hindmarsh (SA) | Steve Georganas | ALP | 55.05 |
Greenway (NSW) | Louise Markus[note 1] | ALP | 55.67 |
Brand (WA) | Gary Gray | ALP | 55.98 |
Fairly safe | |||
Moreton (Qld) | Graham Perrett | ALP | 56.01 |
Bendigo (Vic) | Steve Gibbons | ALP | 56.13 |
Lindsay (NSW) | David Bradbury | ALP | 56.28 |
Wakefield (SA) | Nick Champion | ALP | 56.59 |
Blair (Qld) | Shayne Neumann | ALP | 56.98 |
Melbourne Ports (Vic) | Michael Danby | ALP | 57.15 |
Chisholm (Vic) | Anna Burke | ALP | 57.38 |
Isaacs (Vic) | Mark Dreyfus | ALP | 57.69 |
Makin (SA) | Tony Zappia | ALP | 57.70 |
Perth (WA) | Stephen Smith | ALP | 57.94 |
Lilley (Qld) | Wayne Swan | ALP | 57.95 |
Ballarat (Vic) | Catherine King | ALP | 58.15 |
Bruce (Vic) | Alan Griffin | ALP | 58.32 |
Lyons (Tas) | Dick Adams | ALP | 58.34 |
Adelaide (SA) | Kate Ellis | ALP | 58.53 |
Richmond (NSW) | Justine Elliot | ALP | 58.87 |
Corio (Vic) | Richard Marles | ALP | 58.93 |
Jagajaga (Vic) | Jenny Macklin | ALP | 58.98 |
Fremantle (WA) | Melissa Parke | ALP | 59.14 |
Parramatta (NSW) | Julie Owens | ALP | 59.86 |
Safe | |||
Banks (NSW) | Daryl Melham | ALP | 60.37 |
Reid (NSW) | Laurie Ferguson | ALP | 60.84 |
Lingiari (NT) | Warren Snowdon | ALP | 61.16 |
Oxley (Qld) | Bernie Ripoll | ALP | 61.34 |
Holt (Vic) | Anthony Byrne | ALP | 61.63 |
Rankin (Qld) | Craig Emerson | ALP | 61.67 |
Canberra (ACT) | Annette Ellis | ALP | 61.82 |
Capricornia (Qld) | Kirsten Livermore | ALP | 62.08 |
Griffith (Qld) | Kevin Rudd | ALP | 62.32 |
Charlton (NSW) | Greg Combet | ALP | 62.91 |
Hotham (Vic) | Simon Crean | ALP | 63.00 |
Kingsford Smith (NSW) | Peter Garrett | ALP | 63.26 |
McMahon (NSW) | Chris Bowen | ALP | 63.77 |
Shortland (NSW) | Jill Hall | ALP | 64.74 |
Barton (NSW) | Robert McClelland | ALP | 64.94 |
Fraser (ACT) | Bob McMullan | ALP | 65.07 |
Werriwa (NSW) | Chris Hayes | ALP | 65.07 |
Denison (Tas) | Duncan Kerr | ALP | 65.29 |
Maribyrnong (Vic) | Bill Shorten | ALP | 65.32 |
Lalor (Vic) | Julia Gillard | ALP | 65.53 |
Hunter (NSW) | Joel Fitzgibbon | ALP | 65.68 |
Newcastle (NSW) | Sharon Grierson | ALP | 65.91 |
Blaxland (NSW) | Jason Clare | ALP | 66.65 |
Throsby (NSW) | Jennie George | ALP | 66.76 |
Cunningham (NSW) | Sharon Bird | ALP | 66.87 |
Watson (NSW) | Tony Burke | ALP | 68.20 |
Sydney (NSW) | Tanya Plibersek | ALP | 69.32 |
Calwell (Vic) | Maria Vamvakinou | ALP | 69.33 |
Chifley (NSW) | Roger Price | ALP | 69.68 |
Port Adelaide (SA) | Mark Butler | ALP | 69.75 |
Very safe | |||
Scullin (Vic) | Harry Jenkins | ALP | 70.85 |
Gorton (Vic) | Brendan O'Connor | ALP | 71.22 |
Gellibrand (Vic) | Nicola Roxon | ALP | 71.46 |
Wills (Vic) | Kelvin Thomson | ALP | 72.41 |
Fowler (NSW) | Julia Irwin | ALP | 72.57 |
Grayndler (NSW) | Anthony Albanese | ALP | 74.85 |
Batman (Vic) | Martin Ferguson | ALP | 75.95 |
NON-GOVERNMENT SEATS | |||
Liberal/National coalition (Liberal National Party in QLD) | |||
Marginal | |||
Bowman (Qld) | Andrew Laming | LNP[note 2] | 50.00 |
McEwen (Vic) | Fran Bailey | LIB | 50.02 |
Paterson (NSW) | Bob Baldwin | LIB | 50.58 |
La Trobe (Vic) | Jason Wood | LIB | 50.51 |
Hughes (NSW) | Danna Vale | LIB | 50.54 |
Sturt (SA) | Christopher Pyne | LIB | 50.94 |
Ryan (Qld) | Michael Johnson[note 3] | LNP[note 2] | 51.21 |
Cowper (NSW) | Luke Hartsuyker | NAT | 51.24 |
Stirling (WA) | Michael Keenan | LIB | 51.27 |
Cowan (WA) | Luke Simpkins | LIB | 51.28 |
Hinkler (Qld) | Paul Neville | LNP[note 2] | 51.52 |
Boothby (SA) | Andrew Southcott | LIB | 52.93 |
Fairfax (Qld) | Alex Somlyay | LNP[note 2] | 52.97 |
Calare (NSW) | John Cobb | NAT | 53.46 |
Fisher (Qld) | Peter Slipper | LNP[note 2] | 53.53 |
Wentworth (NSW) | Malcolm Turnbull | LIB | 53.85 |
Dunkley (Vic) | Bruce Billson | LIB | 54.04 |
Grey (SA) | Rowan Ramsey | LIB | 54.43 |
Canning (WA) | Don Randall | LIB | 54.35 |
McMillan (Vic) | Russell Broadbent | LIB | 54.79 |
Wright (Qld) | Vacant[note 4] | LNP[note 2] | 53.79 |
Aston (Vic) | Chris Pearce | LIB | 55.05 |
Hume (NSW) | Alby Schultz | LIB | 55.35 |
Forrest (WA) | Nola Marino | LIB | 55.48 |
North Sydney (NSW) | Joe Hockey | LIB | 55.51 |
Gippsland (Vic) | Darren Chester | NAT | 55.91 |
Casey (Vic) | Tony Smith | LIB | 55.93 |
Fairly safe | |||
Menzies (Vic) | Kevin Andrews | LIB | 56.02 |
Goldstein (Vic) | Andrew Robb | LIB | 56.05 |
Cook (NSW) | Scott Morrison | LIB | 56.34 |
Higgins (Vic) | Kelly O'Dwyer | LIB | 57.04 |
Mayo (SA) | Jamie Briggs | LIB | 57.06 |
Wannon (Vic) | David Hawker | LIB | 57.47 |
Durack (WA) | Barry Haase | LIB | 57.65 |
Pearce (WA) | Judi Moylan | LIB | 57.69 |
Groom (Qld) | Ian Macfarlane | LNP[note 2] | 58.22 |
Flinders (Vic) | Greg Hunt | LIB | 58.25 |
Wide Bay (Qld) | Warren Truss | LNP[note 2] | 58.39 |
McPherson (Qld) | Margaret May | LNP[note 2] | 58.65 |
Warringah (NSW) | Tony Abbott | LIB | 58.78 |
Moore (WA) | Mal Washer | LIB | 58.93 |
Indi (Vic) | Sophie Mirabella | LIB | 59.19 |
Barker (SA) | Patrick Secker | LIB | 59.45 |
Kooyong (Vic) | Petro Georgiou | LIB | 59.53 |
Mitchell (NSW) | Alex Hawke | LIB | 59.65 |
Tangney (WA) | Dennis Jensen | LIB | 59.81 |
Safe | |||
Berowra (NSW) | Philip Ruddock | LIB | 60.01 |
Fadden (Qld) | Stuart Robert | LNP[note 2] | 60.43 |
Farrer (NSW) | Sussan Ley | LIB | 61.19 |
Mackellar (NSW) | Bronwyn Bishop | LIB | 62.38 |
O'Connor (WA) | Wilson Tuckey | LIB | 62.76 |
Curtin (WA) | Julie Bishop | LIB | 63.26 |
Parkes (NSW) | Mark Coulton | NAT | 63.67 |
Moncrieff (Qld) | Steven Ciobo | LNP[note 2] | 63.80 |
Bradfield (NSW) | Paul Fletcher | LIB | 63.86 |
Maranoa (Qld) | Bruce Scott | LNP[note 2] | 64.06 |
Riverina (NSW) | Kay Hull | NAT | 64.55 |
Murray (Vic) | Sharman Stone | LIB | 68.26 |
Very safe | |||
Mallee (Vic) | John Forrest | NAT | 71.27 |
Independents | |||
Kennedy (Qld) | Bob Katter | IND | 66.29 v ALP |
Lyne (NSW) | Rob Oakeshott | IND | 73.87 v NP |
New England (NSW) | Tony Windsor | IND | 74.33 v NP |
Notes[]
- ^ Jump up to: a b c d e f This seat was held by a Liberal Party MP, but had a notional majority of Labor Party voters.
- ^ Jump up to: a b c d e f g h i j k l This Queensland seat was contested by a Liberal National Party candidate in the 2010 federal election. Queensland Liberal and National MPs retained their original party affiliation until after the election.
- ^ On 20 May 2010, Michael Johnson, who originally contested the seat as a Liberal Party member, was expelled from the Queensland Liberal National Party, and vowed to contest the Division of Ryan as an independent.
- ^ The division of Wright was created under the Australian Electoral Commission's 2009 Redistribution of Queensland.
References[]
- ^ Two Party Preferred by Division
- ^ Electoral matrix: 2004 federal election Archived 2008-02-20 at the Wayback Machine
- Pendulums for Australian federal elections